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  • Can tweets about the stock market be ignored as random noise, generated by

    在推特上那些自稱交易的意見領袖所

  • self-proclaimed trading gurus?

    發的推特能夠被忽略嗎?

  • A study by a team of researchers at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University

    鹿特丹的管理學院,伊拉斯莫斯大學中的研究團隊

  • now shows that tweets contain useful information that can be used

    發現推特中有能夠用來預測短、長期股票市場

  • to predict stock market developments in the short and long term.

    發展的有用資訊

  • This discovery may eventually help investors make better decisions.

    這個發現最後能夠幫助投資人做出更有利的選擇

  • Back to around 2014, The Associated Press Twitter account got hacked

    大概在 2014 年,美聯社 (The Associated Press) 的推特帳號遭到駭客入侵

  • and a fake tweet sent out, to say, well, Barack Obama was injured.

    發佈了歐巴馬遇害的假消息

  • As a result of this fake tweet the stock market went down for 1% for Dow Jones index.

    這個假推特消息使股市的道瓊指數跌了 1%

  • How much is that? More than 100 billion US dollars got swept out.

    而這代表 1千多億美元瞬間蒸發

  • The focal point of this study is actually to find out whether

    這個研究的重點是找出

  • there is additional information we can extract out of social media

    我們是否能夠在社群媒體上吸取更多資訊

  • in order to better predict stock market performance.

    做出更好的股票市場預測

  • Perhaps we can extract information that goes

    說不定我們找到比新聞媒體報導

  • above and beyond what has been captured within the public news.

    更好的資訊

  • At the very beginning we collected about 21 weeks of tweet data and extracted all the

    在前期,我們蒐集了 21 週的推特數據,精選出

  • information in all the tweets that mentioned a top S&P 100 firm.

    關於前百大標準普爾公司的推特資訊

  • We had to determine the sentiment being expressed in those tweets:

    我們觀察推特中所表達的心情:

  • positive, neutral and negative, indicating that some investor

    正面、中立、負面,指出投資人

  • wants to buy, keep or sell stocks that they hold for a given company.

    想要購買、留住、或是賣出他們的股票

  • What we demonstrated is, indeed, based on that Twitter information, with the value extracted out of

    我們想呈現的是,當然,根據推特上精選出來的資訊,

  • this tweet information, expressed in sentiment, you can make smarter and

    從這些推特中呈現的心情感受,你可以做出更聰明、

  • better trading strategies and earn excess returns.

    更好的交易策略,然後賺取更多報酬

  • Even when we take into account the transaction costs, as well as the fixed costs for running this exercise,

    就算我們將交易成本及固定成本列入這次研究的考量

  • we can see that there's still excess returns, compared to the market performance.

    我們可以發現報酬還是超越一般市場表現

  • The implication goes way beyond just being in financial industry.

    這些資訊的意涵優於金融市場的預測

  • A lot of what we do and what we say, both in online and offline environment,

    很多我們在線上、非線上環境所說的話,

  • has been digitised. We can learn from this digitised human behavior

    都被量化。我們可以從這些被量化的行為得知

  • how individuals make their decisions, and also firms can learn from

    個體如何選擇,企業也能從此得知

  • this to make better decisions that can target and also personalise

    如何做出更好的決策,去瞄準並客製化

  • their services and product at the individual level

    它們的服務與產品

  • in order to achieve better performance.

    以達到更好的表現

Can tweets about the stock market be ignored as random noise, generated by

在推特上那些自稱交易的意見領袖所

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B2 中高級 中文 美國腔 推特 股票 資訊 市場 預測 交易

用微博的大數據分析預測股票市場 (Predicting the stock market with big-data analysis of tweets)

  • 49 9
    jenny 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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