The Republic of China, better known as Taiwan, is has some of the most strange and controversial

老實說 我們並不驚訝

political and diplomatic situations in the entire world.

中國民國 更耳熟能響為 台灣

Let me explain, at the time of publishing this video, Taiwan has only received formal

有著最奇怪和最具爭議性的

recognition from 20 of the world's countries...

政治上和外交上的情勢

And some of these countries are pretty small, like the Vatican, Tuvalu and Swaziland.

在整個全世界

Despite all of this, Taiwan has managed to become one of the richest and freest countries

就讓我來解釋一下

on the planet.

這部影片發佈的同時

It has a well-equipped army and it is one of the spearheads of the United States in

台灣只得到20個國家正式承認

South East Asia.

有些國家還相當小

But, before we really get into it, let's take a look back and see where it all began:

像梵帝岡

THE GREAT CHINESE SEPARATION

吐瓦魯群島

The situation Taiwan finds itself in has its origin in the Chinese Civil War which took

和史瓦濟蘭

place between 1927 and 1949.

儘管如此

(It was a war between the conservative forces of the Chinese Nationalist Party led by Chiang

台灣還是設法成為一個最富有和最自由的國家

Kai-shek and the forces of the Communist Party of Mao Tse-Tung).

在地球上

On 10th December 1949, the last city, Chengdu, fell into hands of the nationalists...

擁有精良的武器裝備

The war had ended and the Communists had gotten their way.

還是美國的一個防衛箭頭

Shortly before Chengdu fell, a plane carrying the nationalist leader, Chiang Kai-shek, left

在東南亞區域上

bound for Taiwan, the last province under nationalist control…

在我們真正進入主題之前

And he didn't go alone.

拉到從前

(With Chiang Kai-shek, two more million people took shelter in Taiwan as well as the survivors

是從何時開始的

of the nationalist army)

(大中國分裂)

Since then, and even though Mao tried to take the island back, Taiwan has received support

台灣的情況起源於國共內戰

from the United States.

發生在1927年至1949年之間

The US continued recognizing the government of the island as the legitimate government

國共內戰衝突是由蔣介石所領導保守勢力的國民黨

of China up until 1979!

和毛澤東所領導的共產黨部隊

As a curious note, Taiwan is the only country, other than the US that has continually operated

1949年12月10日

the famous U-2 spy plane.

最後一個城市 成都

Their mission was to monitor Mao's China.

落入國家主義者之手

The CIA itself was actually in charge of conducting these operations.

國共內戰結束

1979 is an important date… at that time the United States was trying to build trust

共產黨得到勝利

with Beijing, in order to create some form of double envelopment against the Soviet Union.

在丟掉成都不久之前

We actually talked about this in a previous video, I'll leave a link to that in the

一架飛機載著國民黨的蔣介石

description...

撤退到台灣

Well, the thing is, in 1979, the President of The United States, Jimmy Carter, decided

最後一省落在國家主義者的掌握中

to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing, and that meant they had to stop recognizing

但他並不獨單

the government of the Republic of China, that is, the government based in Taipei.

跟隨著蔣介石到台灣避難的難民

You see, Taiwan never declared its independence...

有2佰萬人 包含國民黨軍隊的倖存者

For years, the government in Taipei kept the considering itself as the legitimate government

自從那時開始

of all of China.

即使毛澤東試著拿回那座島

And, of course, a country can only have, diplomatically speaking, one government.

台灣已經得到美國的援助

And yep, that is how the One-China policy started and today this is supported by Washington

美國繼續承認島上是合法的中國政府

and most countries around the world.

直到1979年

This is a change, by the way, that caused Taiwan to lose its place in the UN as well

根據一份文件

as other important international organisations.

除了美國之外

But, it is true that the United States was still committed to the security of Taiwan.

台灣是唯一國家去執行有名的U-2間碟任務

That same year, in 1979, the American congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act.

監視中國的毛澤東

This was a document that, among other things, reserved the option for the US to ensure the

CIA實際上主導著整個計劃

security and defence of the island.

1979年是個重要的日子

And since that act was passed, the US has done just that.

在此時

But as I was saying at the beginning of this video, none of these things have kept Taiwan

美國嚐試和北京建立信任

from being the star of one of the greatest stories of economic and social success.

創造雙邊發展關係

THE BIG ROAR OF THE TIGER

以防堵當時的蘇聯

In the 1950s, Taiwan was a very poor place…

我們在之前的影片有談到過

It had a pretty rudimentary economy, where there exports were mostly basic products like

連結在下面的說明

rice and sugar.

1979年當年的美國總統 吉米-卡特

So the question at the time was: How to develop such a poor island?

決定和北京建立外交關係

Well, the Taiwanese government thought the best way to achieve success was to ensure

也就是說

that the businesses on the island could sell their products all over the world.

必須不再承認在台北的中華民國政府

This was considered to be the best way to open the island to the world and even encourage

你們看 台灣從未宣佈獨立很多年

savings.

在台北的政府一直認為

Yep, it might seem counter intuitive, but this action does actually encourage saving…

本身才是唯一合法的中國政府

In order to invest you first need to get the resources necessary to do so.

外交上的說法

And well, they did just that.

一個國家只能有一個政府

The government of the island soon started to eliminate almost all import restrictions.

這就是一中政策是如何來的

This meant that businesses could get all the products required to set up their businesses

今天得到美國華盛頓的支持

and assembly lines without being stung by import fees.

和全世界大部份的國家

This is sort of similar to what Singapore did.

你好

Besides, this culture of saving added to the legal certainty of the country, and encouraged

這是個改變

further investment.

順便一提

Soon, Taiwanese companies started to appear like mushrooms after the rain, and they exported

造成了台灣失去在聯合國的位置

all kinds of products to the rest of the world.

和其它重要的國際性組織

In 1980, industrial products were already 90% of the country's exports and they were

但這是個事實

growing an average of 30% every year!

美國仍然致力於台灣的安全

Taiwan, dear viewer, sold all kinds of things to the world: toys, radios, bikes, socks…

同年1979年

everything!

美國國會通過台灣關係法

And of course, as you can imagine, with that sort of situation, the per capita income didn´t

這份議案之中

stop growing.

保留著選項

In just 30 years it multiplied by 5!

美國確保著安全和防衛這座島

And with that a new Asian Tiger was born.

從法案通過開始

Now, do not think this was an easy process.

美國已經做到了這一點

Taiwan didn´t become a democracy until the 1990s.

在片頭我所談到的

But, once they got freedom, the Taiwanese people, they held onto it very tightly...

沒有事情可阻擋台灣

Let's have a look at some examples:

成為經濟社會發展成功和偉大故事之一個明星

Taiwan is today the eleventh freest economy in the world.

(猛虎大咆哮)

In Asia, only Hong Kong and Singapore rank better.

在1950年代 台灣是一個非常窮的地方

It is a rich country, with quite a high standard of living, and it is one of the countries

剛起步的經濟

that has a significant number of civil liberties.

出口大部份是基本的產品

And, in fact, Taiwan is about to make history: “Taiwan court rules in favour of same sex

像是米和糖

marriage in historic first for an Asian country”

當時的問題是

So, as you can see, compared with continental China… well there really is no comparison...

如何去發展這麼窮的島

In terms of per capita income, the Taiwanese are today three times richer than the Chinese,

台灣政府想出最好的達到成功方法

and they are much more free.

就是確保島上的企業

But, alright, in spite of all this good stuff there are still some clouds on the horizon...

能夠把產品賣到全世界

CLOUDS IN THE TAIWANESE SKY

這是思考慎密的最好方法

The truth is that, in the last few years, the country has been going through a few things...

開放給全世界

Salaries have been frozen for years, and in 2015, the country went through a small recession.

甚至鼓勵 儲蓄

Since then… economic growth has been very slow.

好像是直覺的觀點

And now the rather obvious question has to be: What exactly is happening?

但這行為真的實際上鼓勵到儲蓄

Well, there are several ingredients to this rather bitter recipe which is threatening

為了投資自己得到生活所需資源

the future of this island.

就要這麼做

Some of this is competition from new emerging markets like China, Indonesia and Vietnam.

他們真的做到了

There is also the brain drain, the ageing population, and the close-to-broken pension

島上的政府立即開始排除幾乎所有的進口限制

system.

這意謂著企業能得到所有的產品

The latter of these, the pension system, is the problem that, by far, concerns the government

不需要再設立商業裝配線

of the island the most.

不怕被進口關稅所嚇到

Look, for years, the pensions of public workers were inflated for political reasons.

就類似新加坡的作法

They did this to get votes and it became really, really, expensive.

除此之外 儲蓄的文化增加國家確定性

Public pensions were so inflated that they are now threatening the stability of the entire

鼓勵更多的投資

system.

很快地 台灣的公司像雨後春筍出現

Taiwanese workers earn about $1,300 a month on average, but retired high-school teachers

並出口所有種類的產品到世界各國

receive a whopping average pension of NT$68,340 a month

1980年工業產品已經達到出口總量的90%

As you know, bad policies turn out to be expensive.

每年平均30%的成長

But let's consider some of the other problems…

回顧台灣賣很多的產品到全世界

To continue our metaphor, the next ingredient in our recipe…

玩具、收音機、自行車、襪子

And that would be what could be called the “40-40 issue”.

每一樣產品

So, the Taiwanese economy is very dependent on the electronic industry and commerce with

當然你可以想像

China.

在這種情況下 國民人均收入

Electronic goods are 40% of all their exports and China is the destination for almost 40%

不斷地成長

of Taiwanese exports.

在30年間成長了5倍

And now you might be wondering, so what's the problem?

因此新的亞洲之虎誕生

Well, this dependence on electronics means that when the electronic industry or China

不要認為這是簡單的過程

isn't doing well economically, Taiwan suffers too.

台灣直到1990年代才進入民主

And that is, precisely, what has happened in the last few years.

一旦台灣人民得到自由 就抓得更緊

But wait, we're not done yet…

讓我們瞧一下例子

Above all else there is a political problem which has affected the country severely and

台灣今日是世上第11名最自由的經濟

has caused foreign investment in Taiwan to be significantly lower than that of the countries

在亞洲 僅次於香港和新加坡

nearby.

在富有的國家

And, well, what is that problem?

生活水準就相當高

Well, foreign investors...They are afraid of China.

它就是一個公民權利相當多的國家

THE CHINESE THREAT

事實上台灣即將創造歷史

That is, by far, the biggest problem Taiwan is facing.

台灣法律贊成同性婚姻

The government of Beijing is determined to regain sovereignty over the island and in

是歷史上第一個亞洲國家

its public declaration on the matter they state these two things:

如你所看到的

First, that it will happen before 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People´s Republic

對比一下中國

of China.

他們在人均收入方面是無法比的

And second, that they are willing to use the force if Taiwan tries to declare its independence.

台灣人是比中國人富有三倍

So, let me explain.

他們還有更多的自由

Taiwan could be considered an independent country from every perspective: the island

儘管有這麼好的優勢

has its own president (who is democratically elected by the way), its own laws, its own

仍然有烏雲籠罩

army...

(台灣上空的烏雲)

However, Beijing isn't going to accept formal independence.

事實是在過去幾年來

The most they are willing to give Taiwan, temporarily, is a status similar to the one

國家已經過一些事

that Hong Kong has.

薪資已停滯多年

And this is serious, among other things because most Taiwanese don't feel that their identity

在2015年國家經歷過經濟衰退

is tied to China.

自那以後 經濟成長速度變慢

They feel citizens of a free country, which has been independent for almost 70 years.

現在相當明顯的問題是

In fact, in 2014, when the previous government of Taiwan tried to approach Beijing to develop

究竟發生了什麼事

a trading agreement, Taiwanese people started a revolution which eventually became know

有幾個相當痛苦棘手的問題

as the Sunflower Revolution.

威脅著這個島的未來

Hundreds of young people protested with the motto: Taiwan is not for sale!

有些是來自新興市場國家的競爭

It was exactly under this atmosphere of economic and political frustration that, in 2016, the

像中國、印尼和越南

Democratic Progressive Party, a party whose foundations were mainly pro-independence,

也有人才流失、老化人口

won the legislative and presidential elections...

和接近破產的年金問題

Tsai Ing-Wen, not the closest politician to Beijing, became the first female president

年金問題到目前為止是政府

of Taiwan.

最關心的議題

And even though the economy was the most crucial factor, Beijing didn´t like this election

多年來公務人員年金因政治因素擴大

at all.

他們這樣做是為了獲得選票

They disapproved of it so much that they decided to start harassing Taiwan again...

真的變得費用龐大

(In 2017 and up to now, the Chinese tourism to Taiwan has been reduced by a 40%, Beijing

公務人員年金擴大到這種地步

has convinced two countries, Panama and Sao Tome to stop recognizing Taiwan, and it is

他們現在正威脅著整個制度的穩定

blocking the presence of the island in many international forums).

台灣勞工每月薪資平均約$1,300元美金

For now, there have been no economic retaliation, but the island know that they could be in

但退休高中老師

line for a severe blow.

每月領到平均高達$2,250元美金的退休金

That is why one of the priorities of the new government is to open up to new markets as

正如你知道的

soon as possible.

壞的政策變成費用支出龐大

So, now you might be wondering, where is the US?

我們再思量其它的問題

This is a Visual Politik video after all, we've got to mention the US at some point,

再繼續我們的暗喻

right?!

下個棘手的問題

So where are they?

就是40-40的問題

Well, for now their support seems to remain intact.

台灣的經濟是非常依賴電子產業

In fact, Trump's administration has approved a new weapon sale to Taiwan worth $1.5 billion.

和與中國貿易密切往來

Trump Administration Approves Its First Arms Sale to Taiwan.

電子產品佔出口總量的40%

And, on top of that, the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee in the United States allowed

出口到中國就幾乎佔台灣出口量的40%

navy ships to use Taiwanese ports, and they did so with a majority of votes from both

你或許想知道 到底出了什麼問題

the Democratic and the Republican Parties.

對電子產品的依賴性

If both chambers finally approve that decision, you can bet that Beijing is going to be pretty

就意謂著電子工業

annoyed…

或中國在經濟上面臨不景氣

But, what is Washington's objective?

台灣也正面臨著

Well, that would be to try and prevent Beijing from even thinking about a military invasion

這就是恰好是發生在過去幾年

of Taiwan.

等等 我們還沒聊完

So, that's it for now.

還有個政治問題嚴重影響到這個國家

Here at VisualPolitik we are going to keep a close eye on Taiwan as the situation develops.

和造成外國投資對台灣明顯降低

But now it's your turn.

比其它鄰近國家

What do you think the future of Taiwan will hold?

到底是什麼問題呢

You can leave you opinion in the comments below as well as in this survey.

外國投資他們害怕中國

So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did, and don't forget to

(中國的威脅)

subscribe if you haven't already, brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.

這就是到目前為此台灣所面臨的

And don't forget to check out the Reconsider Media podcast - they provided the vocals in

北京政府正決定收復島內的政權

this episode that aren't mine.

並公開宣示2點聲明

And as always, I'll see you in the next video.

首先