Name: 2018年股票還是好賭嗎？我財富 (Are Stocks Still A Good Bet In 2018? I Fortune)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:13:21.000Z
Duration: 2 min 23 s

(股票在 2018 年仍是個好標的嗎？)

In 2018, we are still bullish on equities.

我們仍然看好股票在 2018 年的表現

I think you are going to get the best returns out of stocks relative to other asset classes.

我們覺得你將能在股票中取得比其他資產更好的報酬

My top two favorite sectors going to 2018 are technology and financial services,

我 2018 年最看好的兩個類股是科技股及金融股

(為什麼銀行股是好投資目標呢？)

because there are a lot of, I think, tailwinds and drivers in 2018.

因為在 2018 年，他們是站在風口的產業，也有太多動能在其中

The first I would say is we've had less regulatory pressure there,

首先我要提的是我們有很寬鬆的監管壓力

so banks can go back to regular business.

所以銀行可以回去做他們傳統的生意

The second is we don't think the market is pricing in the full scope of FED policy rate increases,

第二點是我們認為市場尚未完全反應聯準會加息的政策

and that's gonna be supportive of margins for the banks.

這對於銀行業的利潤而言是個很好的支撐

The third is that, you know, global and US growth is quite strong,

第三點是全球及美國本土的經濟成長強勁

so we're gonna see continued demand for and use of financial services.

代表說我們將會繼續看到需求出現以及財務服務被更多地使用

we're gonna have a huge amount of capital return coming from the banks to investors.

投資人將從銀行那取得大量的資本報酬

We know that many banks have been clear to increase their dividends,

我們知道說很多銀行都表態要增加他們的配息

and they know equity income, we think, is an increasingly important part of overall portfolio allocation.

他們知道股票收入在整體投資組合中扮演了越來越重要的角色

So, I would say we have a good regulatory environment, we have a good macro,

所以我會說我們有很好的監管環境、很好的總經環境

and monetary policy environment, good demand and a very good story for dividends.

和貨幣政策、很好的需求以及很好的配息前景

It's really hard to predict how much longer this cycle or this bull market in equities can go on.

很難預測這次的循環或股票牛市會走多久

But, what I do know is we don't have a huge amount of excess in the market.

但我知道市場上過剩的情形還沒發生

And by that I mean companies have not been overinvesting.

我這句話的意思是許多公司還沒被過度投資

They've been very thoughtful about how they've deployed capital.

They've been cautious about how quickly they hire.

對於他們新招員工的速率也都小心應對

Capital expenditure has been lower than other cycles.

資本支出比往年的循環都來得低

And normally when you get too much investment, it leads to kind of overheating.

一般來說當過度投資發生時，過熱的情況就會出現

We also don't have to deal with a significant amount of inflationary pressure.

我們也不用去面對沉重的通膨壓力

Our expectation is that inflation is gonna pick up a little bit from kind of lower levels right now,

我們預期通膨會從低基期稍稍上升

but that we are not get so much inflationary pressure

但仍沒有會驅使聯準會加速升息而破壞經濟擴張的

that really causes the Fed to raise interest rates so fast and really kills the expansion.

we are at or close to full employment in the US,

我們現在正處在或是接近充分就業

and we see wage's rising and more discretionary spent. It's a possibility.

我們看到工資率正在上揚，越來越多的隨意支出在發生

And that consumers actually will continue to be an active part of the economy.

而消費者仍然會是推動經濟的主要動力