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(Are stocks still a good bet in 2018?)
In 2018, we are still bullish on equities.
I think you are going to get the best returns out of stocks relative to other asset classes.
My top two favorite sectors going to 2018 are technology and financial services,
particularly large cap banks in the US.
(Why are banks a good investment?)
Banks, I think, are really intresting
because there are a lot of, I think, tailwinds and drivers in 2018.
The first I would say is we've had less regulatory pressure there,
so banks can go back to regular business.
The second is we don't think the market is pricing in the full scope of FED policy rate increases,
and that's gonna be supportive of margins for the banks.
The third is that, you know, global and US growth is quite strong,
so we're gonna see continued demand for and use of financial services.
And the fourth is, I think,
we're gonna have a huge amount of capital return coming from the banks to investors.
We know that many banks have been clear to increase their dividends,
and they know equity income, we think, is an increasingly important part of overall portfolio allocation.
So, I would say we have a good regulatory environment, we have a good macro,
and monetary policy environment, good demand and a very good story for dividends.
(How long will this bull market last?)
It's really hard to predict how much longer this cycle or this bull market in equities can go on.
But, what I do know is we don't have a huge amount of excess in the market.
And by that I mean companies have not been overinvesting.
They've been very thoughtful about how they've deployed capital.
They've been cautious about how quickly they hire.
Capital expenditure has been lower than other cycles.
And normally when you get too much investment, it leads to kind of overheating.
We also don't have to deal with a significant amount of inflationary pressure.
Our expectation is that inflation is gonna pick up a little bit from kind of lower levels right now,
but that we are not get so much inflationary pressure
that really causes the Fed to raise interest rates so fast and really kills the expansion.
The last thing I would say is
we are at or close to full employment in the US,
and we see wage's rising and more discretionary spent. It's a possibility.
And that consumers actually will continue to be an active part of the economy.
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股票在 2018 年還會是個好標的嗎? I 財富雜誌 (Are Stocks Still A Good Bet In 2018? I Fortune)

80 分類 收藏
林恩立 發佈於 2018 年 1 月 4 日    林恩立 翻譯    Samuel 審核
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