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  • When debt markets and equity markets are telling completely different stories,

    當債市跟股市出現了完全不同的走向

  • it can be highly profitable to pay attention.

    多去注意此事是可能帶來高利潤的

  • A pronounced example of this can currently be seen in Greece

    一個現有的例子是希臘

  • where its equity markets are sharply lagging Greek government bonds

    這裡的股市嚴重落後了希臘公債

  • that have rallied during the country's recent emergence from an economic depression.

    希臘公債在最近擺脫經濟蕭條後重整向上

  • If the debt markets are correct,

    如果債市的表現是正確的

  • then Greek stocks should be one of the better performing markets next year.

    希臘股市會是明年表現相對較好的市場之一

  • The most recent IHS Markit Greece PMI

    希臘最近的製造業財新 PMI

  • showed its sixth consecutive improvement in manufacturing conditions

    顯示了其製造業狀況出現連續六次的改善

  • whilst employment growth was at its highest in the 18 years the survey has existed.

    當他的就業成長來到了 18 年來的高點

  • This consistently good news can be seen in the, albeit illiquid,

    即便流動性不足,但這個持續的好消息已經可以在

  • Greek 10-year government bond yield,

    希臘十年期公債殖利率中看到

  • which has fallen from over 7% at the start of the year to 4.3% today.

    它已經從今年初的 7% 掉到今天的 4.3%

  • The Athens composite stock index, meanwhile, is up just 16% year to date.

    於此同時, 雅典綜合股價指數在今年以來已經漲了 16%

  • There are some technical factors behind Greece's stock market

    在希臘股市背後有些技術性因素

  • lagging behind the improvements seen in its government debt and economy.

    它落後於政府公債以及經濟面的改善

  • Many Greek stocks are tiny in terms of market capitalisation

    許多的股票以市場資本額來說是相當小的

  • and illiquid following the crisis,

    而且在希臘危機之後流動性是很低的

  • meaning few analysts bother to cover them and large funds are unable to own them.

    這意味著不太有分析師會特別將觸角伸到這些股票,大量的資金也無法擁有些股票

  • Psychologically, professional investors remain traumatised

    心理上,專業投資人信心尚未恢復

  • from their prior experiences investing in Greece

    從上次的希臘投資經驗當中

  • and may not yet be willing to take the career risk of distancing themselves from the herd.

    也可能不願意冒著職涯風險去做一些特立獨行的事情

  • Few also are likely to bother to look beyond a headline price to earnings multiple of an index

    也很少人會特別深入去看到複雜的指數的價格以外的東西

  • that is heavily distorted by its weighting of banks.

    這指數被銀行股的權重而扭曲了

  • But for more nimble stock pickers, there are certainly opportunities.

    但對於比較靈活的選股者來說,就絕對能發現一些機會

  • A number of Greek industrial stocks have strong balance sheets

    有些希臘工業股有很漂亮的資產負債表表現

  • and trade at undermining multiples of free cash flow.

    被以許多被破壞的自由現金流交易

  • Those looking for a racier, although fall riskier option, can choose Greek banks.

    那些比較積極、願意承擔較高風險的,可以選擇希臘銀行股

  • Not only are they the most economically sensitive sector,

    他們不只對經濟比較敏感

  • but these lenders have very high capital ratios, trade at large discounts to book value,

    而且這些貸款人有比較高的資本比率、以對帳面價值打大折扣的錢去做交易

  • and operate in a highly consolidated retail banking market

    並在高度整合的零售銀行市場裡運作

  • which in the future should become very profitable.

    在未來會是非常有利可圖的

  • Either way, betting on Greece may become one of the trendier trades in 2018.

    無論哪種方法,下注希臘都將可能是 2018 的交易趨勢

When debt markets and equity markets are telling completely different stories,

當債市跟股市出現了完全不同的走向

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B2 中高級 中文 美國腔 FinancialTimes 希臘 公債 股市 股票 指數

聽聽希臘神諭:股票的強勢不是神話|短線觀點。 (Listen to the Greek oracle: stocks' strength is no myth | Short View)

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    林恩立 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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