it can be highly profitable to pay attention.

多去注意此事是可能帶來高利潤的

A pronounced example of this can currently be seen in Greece

一個現有的例子是希臘

where its equity markets are sharply lagging Greek government bonds

這裡的股市嚴重落後了希臘公債

that have rallied during the country's recent emergence from an economic depression.

希臘公債在最近擺脫經濟蕭條後重整向上

If the debt markets are correct,

如果債市的表現是正確的

then Greek stocks should be one of the better performing markets next year.

希臘股市會是明年表現相對較好的市場之一

The most recent IHS Markit Greece PMI

希臘最近的製造業財新 PMI

showed its sixth consecutive improvement in manufacturing conditions

顯示了其製造業狀況出現連續六次的改善

whilst employment growth was at its highest in the 18 years the survey has existed.

當他的就業成長來到了 18 年來的高點

This consistently good news can be seen in the, albeit illiquid,

即便流動性不足，但這個持續的好消息已經可以在

Greek 10-year government bond yield,

希臘十年期公債殖利率中看到

which has fallen from over 7% at the start of the year to 4.3% today.

它已經從今年初的 7% 掉到今天的 4.3%

The Athens composite stock index, meanwhile, is up just 16% year to date.

於此同時， 雅典綜合股價指數在今年以來已經漲了 16%

There are some technical factors behind Greece's stock market

在希臘股市背後有些技術性因素

lagging behind the improvements seen in its government debt and economy.

它落後於政府公債以及經濟面的改善

Many Greek stocks are tiny in terms of market capitalisation

許多的股票以市場資本額來說是相當小的

and illiquid following the crisis,

而且在希臘危機之後流動性是很低的

meaning few analysts bother to cover them and large funds are unable to own them.

這意味著不太有分析師會特別將觸角伸到這些股票，大量的資金也無法擁有些股票

Psychologically, professional investors remain traumatised

心理上，專業投資人信心尚未恢復

from their prior experiences investing in Greece

從上次的希臘投資經驗當中

and may not yet be willing to take the career risk of distancing themselves from the herd.

也可能不願意冒著職涯風險去做一些特立獨行的事情

Few also are likely to bother to look beyond a headline price to earnings multiple of an index

也很少人會特別深入去看到複雜的指數的價格以外的東西

that is heavily distorted by its weighting of banks.

這指數被銀行股的權重而扭曲了

But for more nimble stock pickers, there are certainly opportunities.

但對於比較靈活的選股者來說，就絕對能發現一些機會

A number of Greek industrial stocks have strong balance sheets

有些希臘工業股有很漂亮的資產負債表表現

and trade at undermining multiples of free cash flow.

被以許多被破壞的自由現金流交易

Those looking for a racier, although fall riskier option, can choose Greek banks.

那些比較積極、願意承擔較高風險的，可以選擇希臘銀行股

Not only are they the most economically sensitive sector,

他們不只對經濟比較敏感

but these lenders have very high capital ratios, trade at large discounts to book value,

而且這些貸款人有比較高的資本比率、以對帳面價值打大折扣的錢去做交易

and operate in a highly consolidated retail banking market

並在高度整合的零售銀行市場裡運作

which in the future should become very profitable.

在未來會是非常有利可圖的

Either way, betting on Greece may become one of the trendier trades in 2018.

無論哪種方法，下注希臘都將可能是 2018 的交易趨勢