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  • Self-driving cars (AVs) could make cities more livable, sustainable, equitable, and just.

  • Fully automated self-driving cars will be available for sale in cities by 2020.

  • They have very different economics than our current cars,

  • so won't fit in well with today's rules of play.

  • I see two distinct possibilities for our automated car future:

  • Heaven or Hell. We get to choose.

  • Forward-thinking leadership is going to make all the difference.

  • We get Hell by taking a wait-and-see approach. In this future people buy AVs instead of today's cars.

  • For trips once you get to your destination instead of paying for parking downtown,

  • it'll be cheaper to have your empty AV circle the block or drive back home.

  • The same is true for stores.

  • It could be cheaper to have a drugstore car drive to customers than to pay for retail space downtown.

  • Today 75% of all cars on the road have one occupant: the driver.

  • In the future, as we add more cars operating with their different economics,

  • 50% of the cars will have no people in them, running low-value errands or avoiding parking.

  • Meanwhile all the taxi, bus, shuttle, and truck drivers will lose their jobs.

  • We'll also lose about 60% of our tax revenue that finances road infrastructure

  • because AVs are electric, don't park, and don't get parking tickets.

  • Our roads and bridges get a whole lot worse. We definitely don't want the Hell scenario.

  • We get Heaven by taking a proactive approach.

  • Over a million people in US cities are already car sharing

  • and in San Francisco

  • 50% of people using ride-hailing apps now share their trips with another passenger who is a stranger.

  • Instead of spending $9,000 a year on your own car,

  • when we combine car-sharing and ride-hailing and buy a seat in a shared autonomous vehicle,

  • we can get door-to-door transport at the speed of private car travel for the cost of a subway ticket.

  • This transforms people's access to opportunity.

  • Car-sharing eliminates the need for parking. Ride-sharing reduces congestion.

  • We will only need 10 percent of the cars we have in cities today even at peak times.

  • No more on-street parking! No more parking garages!

  • IF most of the AVs in cities are shared cars in which people can share trips,

  • we can widen sidewalks, plant trees, put in bike lanes and benches.

  • We can get rid of parking lots and build affordable housing or public parks or whatever!

  • Establishing the criteria and priorities for newly available public land

  • will be critical to making sure communities get what they need.

  • We could also reduce air pollution and CO2 emissions as we move from gas to electric power for our cars.

  • But only if we demand that this new incremental electric energy use be renewable.

  • Happily, electric AVs will pay their fair share for road and bridge repair

  • because we will have made and created new user fees that apply to them.

  • We'll discourage empty zombie cars and make it more expensive to drive than to park.

  • But wait, what about all those people

  • who used to drive, repair cars, pump gas, design and build cars for a living?

  • They worked hard and their jobs disappeared almost overnight.

  • We need to make sure that people can diversify their income with benefits that are portable and apply

  • no matter how few hours you work, and we need to start piloting basic income.

  • So if we want Heaven and not Hell, we have to start working together

  • to get the right laws and regulations in place now, especially for the first cities that set the example.

  • Just as your head is reeling from the impact and potential for self-driving cars

  • realize that this is just the tip of the big automation iceberg.

  • Automation delivers enormous productivity gains without the associated labor.

  • It's like making honey without the worker bees. How will we distribute this new kind of honey?

  • Automation gives us reason to reconsider how, why, and where we tax,

  • and to think anew about what kind of world we want to live in.

  • So let's talk. Please contact me. http://www.osmosys.org

Self-driving cars (AVs) could make cities more livable, sustainable, equitable, and just.

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自動駕駛汽車的未來 (The Future of Autonomous Vehicles)

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    yulin 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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