First, let's rewind to two decades ago,

首先，讓我們回到二十年前

Alan Greenspan famously warned of what he called "irrational exuberance in the equity market."

艾倫·葛林斯潘曾警告要注意：公平市場裡面的非理性繁榮

Now the former Federal Reserve chairman says investors worried about excess in stocks might

現在前美聯儲主席說投資者與其擔心股票過剩

be better off worrying about bonds instead.

不如擔心債券市場的問題

Well, I think we have a pending bond market bubble.

葛林斯潘：我認為我們有一個未定的債券市場泡沫

A bubble though, make you think of a manic speculation—

一個市場泡沫可能會讓人瘋狂猜測

people betting that prices will only go up

人們一直預期價格會上漲

like the infamous tulip mania in the 17th century.

就像十七世紀惡名昭彰的「鬱金香狂熱」一樣

It happened in Holland, where prices for tulip bulbs skyrocketed and then suffered

它發生在荷蘭，鬱金香的價格首先飛漲，接著驟然下跌

a spectacular collapse.

經歷非常大的一個崩潰

The problem, essentially, prices of tulips got way out of line with their intrinsic value.

問題就出在於鬱金香的價格漲到超乎它真實的價值太多

Prices of bonds, well they have been climbing for decades.

而債券的價格，也攀升了好幾十年

In recent years, borrowing costs for governments have hit record lows in many countries around the world,

近幾年，政府的借款費用在許多國家創新低

and we can easily point to two basic reasons for that.

而我們可以找出兩個基本的原因

One: since the financial crisis, central banks have been buying trillions—literally trillions—

第一、自金融危機以來，中央銀行買了好幾兆的債券

worth of bonds to stimulate the global economy. That's boosted demand for assets

想要刺激國際市場

in a massive way.

這大幅增加了資產的需求

Driving bond prices up and borrowing costs much, much lower.

驅使債券價格飆升，而借款費用大幅下降

The second point is low inflation.

第二、低通膨

You should probably consider inflation the enemy of bond investors. When consumer prices rise, that eats into the

考慮通膨是債券投資者的敵人，當物價上漲時會影響到債券投資者的實際收入

real income of bond investors, and market participants demand higher interest payments from borrowers

市場參與者要求更高的借款人利息來補償

to compensate them.

市場參與者要求更高的借款人利息來補償

For years now, inflation has remained stubbornly low. That's a fertile environment for a strong

已經許多年了，通貨膨脹還是固執地維持很低

bond market.

這卻提供給債券一個適合發展的市場

Now Greenspan's basic argument is that we are moving into different environment,

現在葛林斯潘的基本論點是我們要進入一個不一樣的環境

an environment where inflation won't stay at historically low levels for much longer. An environment where investors will demand more compensation and bigger interest payments in return.

一個通貨膨脹不會一直維持在歷史新低的環境。一個投資者會要求更多的利率報酬和利息的環境。

If you combine that with central banks beginning to remove stimulus and ending bond-buying programs

在中央銀行開始消除刺激和結束債券購買的狀況下

then the argument is essentially that it could spell trouble for the bond market.

此論點說這會為債券市場帶來問題

Right now you'll struggle to find an investor who will tell you that they are seeing bonds as

雖然現在還不會有太多投資者說他們認為目前的債券市場和之前的鬱金香狂熱很像

reminiscent of the tulip mania of centuries ago, but most accept the bond market is very

但大家多半都覺得債券市場

expensive.

很昂貴

Greenspan thinks it's unsustainable, and when it pops, it will be bad for everyone.

葛林斯潘認為這很不穩定，當泡沫破掉就會對所有人都不利