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  • - Modest preemptive actions can obviate the need

  • of more drastic actions at a later date.

  • - You think that you've been taught things like confidence intervals

  • in an elementary statistical course that would let you do this;

  • but if you really studied carefully,

  • you'd know that they don't let you do this.

  • A really principled frequentist can't produce a probability distribution...

  • - The conclusion we want to point out when we think about valuation

  • is the fact that means are scarce. I alluded to this already that

  • as finite beings we can't will our ends to be attained.

  • - A statistical description of the government's net-of-interest surplus.

  • - ...deflation, I think that yields could drop to say, less than 1%

  • on the 10 years and less than 2% on the 30 years...

  • - ...that would effectively be a takeover of monetary policy by the Congress. - Oh, hello!

  • Daunting, right? Might even make you feel stupid.

  • Perhaps it's no wonder then,

  • while even with the ongoing economic failures across the world:

  • inequality, increasing poverty, debt collapse,

  • bank failures, unemployment rising,

  • very few today seem to be able to understand,

  • let alone discuss, modern economics,

  • outside, of course, the delegation game

  • where the only attempted solutions people know

  • is the mere shifting around of the deck chairs on the Titanic,

  • assuming some new politician, central bank policy, or corporate legislation

  • is going to save the day.

  • Some years back, after coming to the conclusion that our politicians,

  • legislators, and established authorities just might be provably incompetent

  • when it comes to the truly intelligent management of our society,

  • I started to look for questions and answers on my own,

  • asking those questions about things

  • that many today either seem to take for granted, ignore or even worse,

  • assume that they have no capacity or business investigating at all,

  • since our credentialed authorities in control

  • must be smarter, more informed.

  • It's a sad staple of modern culture, you know,

  • the old "Relax, turn on the TV, keep going into debt,

  • and pump out a bunch of kids while you're at it,"

  • but most importantly, keep showing up at those jobs

  • which you have likely already fooled yourself into believing

  • serve some legitimate social role.

  • Remember, the 1% of the world that owns 40% of the planet's wealth

  • did not get that way with you understanding how the world really works.

  • Nevertheless, and such cynicism aside (I'm sorry),

  • I decided that I needed to start again,

  • if you will, and ask some fundamental questions

  • about stuff most have simply written off and forgotten.

  • If you were to take a poll today of our species, asking what truly are

  • the most fundamental questions that pertain to human survival and prosperity,

  • such as, I don't know, what really supports human life, how food grows,

  • what energy is, what creates and reinforces good public health,

  • what defines a useful or detrimental belief system,

  • you can rest assured, that the vast majority would have more concrete answers

  • about baseball statistics, fashion trends, sitcom plots, and religious scriptures.

  • Not to demean the cultural pleasures and creativity of expression

  • that creates enjoyment in this life,

  • but we have a distortion of priority that has proven incredibly detrimental

  • to the future of our sustainability on this planet,

  • where the majority facing clear mounting problems

  • not only doesn't understand what the root of such problems really are,

  • they don't even know what questions to ask;

  • and today, there is no greater destructive ignorance at hand,

  • than the vastly delusional concept known as modern economics.

  • It is in this fundamental context that I found the most interest.

  • What is an economy?

  • Where does its foundational premise come from?

  • What are we relating to exactly?

  • How is societal organization finding a benchmark for itself?

  • Is there a benchmark? What are we doing?

  • Why does the discussion of this subject appear to be so elitist

  • in its vocabulary and orientation? Is it really that complicated?

  • I became so tired of being called ignorant of the subject

  • by self-proclaimed experts I've challenged,

  • I decided to take it upon myself to read the entire

  • macro-economics curriculum of Harvard University

  • from the undergraduate to the PhD level,

  • along with all the staples of influence: F.A. Hayek, John Maynard Keynes,

  • Ludwig von Mises; and I'll tell you what, I'm really glad I did

  • because I had some very poor judgments that needed correction,

  • not so much regarding my views about economics,

  • but that life is short, and I wasted an enormous,

  • unforgivable amount of time reading this outdated,

  • overly-intellectualized gibberish.

  • [Glass Breaking] Ah, shit!

  • Bob, would you take care of that please? The fuse panel.

  • Be careful man, it's not... [Explosion][Bob screaming]

  • As the following episode will detail,

  • modern economics is not true economics at all.

  • It's a mere ideological philosophy, built upon a series of presuppositions

  • that have been given the illusion of permanence.

  • There is absolutely no relationship to the scientific integrity

  • of our knowledge of the environment built into this model.

  • The monetary-market system of religious belief

  • is at the core of the vast majority of ecological and social imbalance

  • we see in the world today.

  • Sadly, it is in the face of normality, so many look past it.

  • We might begin to see that this principal notion and practice

  • is truly a problem in society, and to me,

  • it is at the heart of a culture in decline.

  • Earth: Curious little ball of rock, gas and water, isn't it?

  • Hard to believe this little bubble of chemical elements floating in space,

  • basically powered by the sun, could give rise to our colorful,

  • yet rather troubling super-monkey species,

  • a species often appearing pretty serious in its interest to destroy its habitat,

  • though I should say pretty serious in its interest to destroy itself.

  • - What is democracy?

  • - It's got something to do with young men killing each other, I believe.

  • - Excuse me a second. Bob, what the hell was that?

  • The cut away, it wasn't funny. It was just depressing.

  • Couldn't you find some guy shooting a bottle rocket out of his ass or something?

  • You know what our demographic is and the point of the show, right?

  • Okay, well please.

  • Anyway, perhaps our immaturity is just a phase,

  • a tragically comedic rite of passage,

  • no different than children that need to be burned

  • by a hot stove in order to realize they shouldn't touch it,

  • or what the physics behind it may be.

  • Nevertheless, the history and characteristics of this little orb

  • can be scientifically described with a good deal of accuracy:

  • A couple of billion years old now, a composite of gas and dust

  • that resulted mostly from a large chemical reaction long ago,

  • likely an exploding star or supernova;

  • and over millions of years this dust clustered into relatively big chunks of rock,

  • a pronounced gravitational field emerged,

  • our chemical elements were slowly reorganized,

  • and conditions emerged to enable water and an atmosphere,

  • which is what bred the first single-celled organisms;

  • and so went the slow process of mutation

  • into the very amusing circumstance we have today: us.

  • Of course, you are free to believe whatever creation story you like:

  • a rib from Adam, alien cross pollination, primordial ooze.

  • At the end of the day, the utility of such knowledge is quite small.

  • In fact, our little monkey brains

  • might never have a complete picture of something so complex.

  • Yet what we do know is that the universe is governed by laws,

  • not moral or religious laws, but laws that were around

  • long before we ever evolved a brain to understand them.

  • Laws that very clearly point out that we either adapt to them

  • and respect them, or we suffer the consequences.

  • Such is the true face of God: the Laws of Nature.

  • In many ways, the history of our universe

  • is the history of our understanding of it,

  • and we have come a long way as a species

  • with respect to how we organize our lives around these rules.

  • Likely the best example of this adaptation,

  • or in many ways lack thereof, is how we think about economy,

  • the foundation of our social survival.

  • Many thousands of years ago, our super-monkey brethren

  • began to discover how to engage nature.

  • We went from being completely at the mercy of the habitat,

  • gathering our food with some hunting,

  • living and migrating around the natural seasonal regeneration,

  • to an agricultural revolution, learning how to cultivate food,

  • create ever [more] sophisticated tools to ease labor

  • and in effect, learn how to mimic nature itself.

  • In fact, this new awareness and ever-increasing understanding

  • to harness the processes of nature to our advantage

  • is what has led to the vast technological innovation we see today.

  • If nature is doing something, odds are we can understand how

  • through these dynamic scientific principles, from artificial intelligence today

  • which works to emulate actual neurological processes,

  • to molecular engineering which uses the atomic logic

  • to manually recreate material objects.

  • And now, ever-important blood shifting erectile dysfunction drugs,

  • which if you have being watching TV recently,

  • must be the most epidemic health crisis in the Western world today.

  • Since this revolution, human society became less nomadic,

  • slowly merging into cities,

  • and systems of labor specialization began to rise

  • along with means for exchange. Barter is a common example.

  • You need some eggs? Maybe give some firewood you chopped up

  • in exchange for the dairy farmer's work.

  • Yet, such practices became cumbersome and impractical after a while;

  • so the idea of using some rare fancy rocks,

  • like gold and silver as a medium of exchange, eased these transactions

  • through a system of pricing goods in terms of their relative value.

  • This gave birth to what we know today as the adjustable price system

  • which, through the public's aggregate patterns of exchange and production,

  • creates a crude, yet semi-workable logic

  • where the prices of goods reflect the balance of supply and demand,

  • otherwise known as the market or market value. Let me explain.

  • When you stumble into the mall and buy the 85th generation

  • iPoop 4G mp3 colostomy-bag camera phone waffle maker,

  • you are creating economic signal information that is used to calculate demand,

  • local and regional preferences, and other resulting data

  • in concert with the millions of other impulsive consumers

  • who, having also likely bought the 84th generation

  • just two months prior for twice the price,

  • creates an aggregate flow of input data and feedback

  • that allows for an ostensibly rational regulation of resource allocation,

  • production, distribution, labor requirements, and of course

  • price consensus in the market based on perceived supply and demand,

  • not to mention the general data of how the marketing team

  • can screw you over even more later on.

  • This mechanism is partly what the ultimate high priest

  • of our current economic religion, Adam Smith, was alluding to

  • with his 'invisible hand' notion of causality in the free market.

  • And in many ways he was on to something.

  • It does work in a limited context and a crude way.

  • In fact, in the 1920's an economist named Ludwig von Mises put forward

  • the still high-standing claim that without the price mechanism

  • economic calculation and rational resource allocation

  • and general organization would be impossible.

  • He called it 'The Economic Calculation Problem'.

  • However things are much different today than they were 200 years ago

  • when Adam Smith published his 'Wealth of Nations'

  • or when Ludwig von Mises made his criticism of central planning.

  • The fact is the argument has changed. The economic debate now is

  • what is actually sustainable and progressive for the human species,

  • not to mere mechanics of the movement of the money.

  • While it is true the price system might allow

  • for the basic calculation of supply & demand data,

  • to help rationally allocate labor, preference, distribution and the like,

  • it ignores the real operational factors

  • that relate to true, efficient earthly management

  • hence the true definition of economy

  • which is: optimized efficiency on all levels.

  • For instance, there is no consideration for optimum resource allocation

  • based on the material's most efficient purpose.

  • Rational allocation of resources is not rational

  • if the most conducive use of those natural materials, scientifically,

  • is not directly considered and brought into comparison. [REJECTED]

  • There is no consideration for the organizational efficiency

  • of technical production itself, and all you have to do is

  • analyze the waste machine of globalization to see this insanity at work.

  • There is also no consideration for regeneration needs or recycling protocols:

  • a true requirement for responsible rational resource use on a finite planet,

  • nor is there any true production or distribution efficiency

  • in any optimized scientific sense

  • as such a means is, as will be described more so in a moment,

  • also counter to the inherent logic of the market system itself.

  • These, coupled with many other serious parameters

  • needed for a truly efficient economy, are simply ignored or, even worse,

  • assumed to be inherent to the price mechanism's function

  • when they clearly are not.

  • You see, the price mechanism's concept of efficiency

  • translates the subjective mass interaction of consumers

  • into the narrow assessments of regional demand, production and distribution.

  • It has nothing to do with how or why the methods of industry are what they are.

  • Such factors are left up to the whim of the producers

  • operating for profit alone, completely decoupling

  • from the natural regulation of scientific principles of sustainability.

  • Aww, man!

  • You see, at the core of 'The Economic Calculation Problem'

  • is really the argument that we are completely irrational,

  • that we can't possibly be organized in a way that is structurally efficient;

  • we are too insane, essentially.

  • Therefore, we have to have a general economic anarchy

  • to organize our society and there's no other way around it.

  • (*Bullshit!*)

  • Again, today is very different than it was prior, and a quick review

  • of modern computer programming and systems engineering

  • will tell you that not only can the algorithmic intelligence

  • of our sensory and measurement technology today,

  • coupled with synergistic computer calculation,

  • orient all the previously existing factors taken into account

  • by the price mechanism as we know it,

  • the truly relevant yet missing factors for optimal efficiency

  • and sustainability could be brought into the equation.

  • This would be the making of a true economic calculation for industry,

  • not the crude truncated data put forward by price alone.

  • So, coming back to our household, the Earth,

  • what is this thing really? It's a system, a system of symbiotic laws.

  • At the core of all principles of sustainability

  • is recognition of the largest order system we can find, for reference.

  • The price mechanism on the other... [crash]

  • Bob, what was that?

  • Jesus Christ, Louie!

  • Bob, why didn't you tell me Louie was here already?

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we have a special guest here on Culture in Decline,

  • our local logic guru, Louie-the-Logic Gremlin.

  • Louie has a severe impatience for anything illogical, and he works to...

  • OK. Bob, you've got to get the goddamn Demo-Publican back in his cage

  • or Louie is going to freak out... Oh, shit! Cut the camera!

  • Sorry about that ladies and gentlemen. As I mentioned,

  • Louie here gets a little frustrated when it comes to anything illogical

  • and the Demo-Publican is sort of his mortal enemy.

  • Anyway, Louie, since we have you here, I want to ask you a few questions.

  • Is the free market actually

  • a good basis for sustainability for the human species?

  • Well, what about infinite wants and human needs?

  • How do we calculate such complexity?

  • Thank you very much Louie, I appreciate that.

  • Well, there you have it, folks.

  • However, logic aside, opinions about our economic system range dramatically.

  • So, to gain some public consensus on the issue, we now go live

  • to our New York 'Culture In Decline' correspondent,

  • Big Scotty D, who is live on Wall Street.

  • Thank you, Peter. This is Scotty D, in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

  • Today we're here in New York City

  • just to try to talk to some people on the street and find out a little bit

  • about what's going on in the world perception of economics.

  • Culture In Decline: Man On the Street

  • Sir, do you want to talk about the economy?

  • Would you like to talk about the economy?

  • Would you like to talk about the economy?

  • I really suck at this,

  • but I don't think people want to talk about economy either.

  • However, there was one guy who was willing to talk to me.

  • - What do you feel is the definition of economics?

  • Standing here in front of Wall Street, I'm just curious.

  • What do you think economics is?

  • - Well, I would say that economics is, is really just

  • just based on money, the things that's going on,

  • you know, from over here by Wall Street.

  • It's just money that makes the system ...

  • generate throughout NY city and for everybody in the world.

  • But it's just mainly a money thing, which makes the world go round.

  • I know what you are thinking. You're thinking

  • "What is this guy talking about?!"

  • But in reality, he probably knows as much about economics

  • as I know about interviewing people on the street.

  • And, seems like most of us

  • really don't know what the economy is all about anyway.

  • Back to you, Peter. *Man On The Streets*

  • Is it me or have you noticed that

  • there is more for sale in the world than ever before,

  • and I'm not referring to goods in your local store.

  • Today, the market rational is that

  • everything is for sale and nothing is sacred.

  • Need some cash? Why don't you rent out your forehead to commercial advertising?

  • Or better yet, why don't you buy the life insurance policy

  • of your elderly neighbor, and when she dies

  • you can get nice payout? Yep, it's legal!

  • Or maybe it's the little things that make you happy.

  • So, rather than put that blow-up doll in your car

  • to use the car pool lane (hehehehe),

  • just buy it, like you can in Minneapolis.

  • Or maybe you have an itch to slaughter that endangered black rhino in Africa.

  • Well, you can. Costs you about $150,000,

  • but hey, it's there. '150,

  • boy, I can't wait to eat that rhino!'

  • Or more seriously, maybe your kids are not excelling well in school.

  • Well, the market has a solution. Pay them!

  • Pay them to read and get good grades, like they do in Dallas, Texas.

  • But perhaps that is overkill, because by the time they hit college age

  • most prestigious universities will look the other way for admission

  • once a nice hefty donation is made for that new library wing.

  • Want to serve your country, but are tired of all those

  • pesky UN war rules and poor pay?

  • Just join the growing legion of private military contractors

  • who are slowly replacing the US military in general.

  • Or how about love?

  • Need a date, but don't want to wade through all the fog?

  • Women will now go on dates with the highest bidder on some dating sites.

  • Forget chatting, just fork out a couple hundred bucks

  • to entice the woman of your choice to allow you to pay for her dinner.

  • I am sure it will be a long lasting relationship.

  • Or perhaps most important,

  • does your business need a law passed to secure profits?

  • Well, just hire a lobbyist to influence Congress!

  • As the prior episode of Culture In Decline denoted,

  • there is nothing in the political and legal spectrum

  • that is not clearly for sale.

  • In fact, why do you think the court system allows most offenses

  • to be cleared with monetary funds?

  • But even if you do something really bad and you are stuck in jail

  • don't fret, because in some cases

  • you can about pay 80 bucks a night for a nice upgrade

  • to a clean quiet jail cell in a nice area of the prison.

  • You name it, you can buy it, and nothing is sacred.

  • 143 years after the passage of the 13th Amendment of the US Constitution

  • and 60 years after Article 4 of the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights

  • banned slavery and the slave trade worldwide,

  • there are today more slaves than anytime in human history,

  • trafficking about 30 million for various profit schemes.

  • But, what about ethics, you might ask?

  • Well, what about it? Ethics and morality

  • continue to be redefined by the economic ethos of the day,

  • and when a Wall Street trader makes millions of dollars

  • betting against the currency and hence prosperity of another country,

  • I can assure you he is sleeping like a baby at night,

  • and why shouldn't he? He is simply doing what is rewarded

  • and reinforced by the economic system-at-large.

  • The market's inherent psychology

  • has nothing to do with anything except its own perpetuation.

  • When you hear politicians tell you that they are invading some poor country

  • to bring freedom and democracy,

  • you need to understand what those words really imply.

  • The freedom they bring is market freedom,

  • and the democracy that they bring is the democracy of purchasing power:

  • the freedom of using money for influence,

  • the freedom to, in fact, restrict the freedom of others.

  • However, let's get back to this technical stuff.

  • Putting aside the distortion of market rationale

  • that now puts everything for sale,

  • putting aside the false premise that the price mechanism

  • actually properly calculates the true attributes

  • of a sustainable and efficient economic practice,

  • and putting aside the basic value system disorder

  • radiating out of the overall basis of unfolding,

  • let's now take a little quiz. Welcome to modern Economics 101.

  • Question 1: If you lived on a planet

  • with finite resources and an expanding population,

  • would you encourage an economy based on the need for growth and consumption

  • to keep everything going?

  • Correct answer: No.

  • The fact that our economy literally requires constant consumption and growth

  • to keep GDP afloat and people employed

  • is the hallmark of not an economy, but an anti-economy.

  • Question 2: If you were a producer

  • would you make goods to be as durable and adaptable as possible

  • given the finite nature of resources

  • in an interest to maximize labor productivity?

  • Answer: Yes. Today it's the opposite,

  • and not only are all goods inferior the moment they are made

  • due to the cost-efficiency needs for corporations to remain competitive,

  • most companies also engage in what is called planned obsolescence

  • which deliberately reduces good quality to encourage repeat purchases

  • for more profit.

  • Question 3: If you were a socio-economic planner,

  • would you encourage everyone to buy one of everything,

  • hoarding that personal property, protectively,

  • even though many goods are used infrequently?

  • Answer: No. That would be inefficient.

  • The reality that goods are only as relevant as their use would be realized

  • and hence a system of shared access,

  • not blind restrictive universal ownership,

  • would be the most rational manner of unfolding.

  • Question 4: What about incentive?

  • Would you push a cut-throat, competititve environment

  • where everyone it is out for themselves or their little group?

  • Correct answer: No. Knowing what we know today

  • about the competitive mentality and how it creates abuse,

  • along with the reality that collaboration and the sharing of information

  • is truly the driver of progress on the social level,

  • competition would be seen as the most limiting of arrangements

  • as a philosophical practice.

  • Question 5: What would be the basis for reward today?

  • Would you require every human to submit to each other for labor

  • as to achieve the means for survival?

  • No. That would be crude and counter-productive,

  • given the state of technology.

  • Modern technical capacity has the ability to increase productivity

  • beyond anything known in human history,

  • not to mention secure more safety and efficiency in general.

  • To push human labor for income

  • in the face of this tool for vast improvement is just absurd.

  • Final thoughts: If we were to take a step back and reflect upon

  • how our human family is behaving across the world today,

  • from Western materialism to Islamic extremism,

  • from nuclear war to necrophilia,

  • we are faced with a dark, yet extremely entertaining reality.

  • The very real fact [is] that we are monkeys in the wild,

  • barely out of the jungle on this planet

  • in the words of the late, great George Carlin,

  • inching out of the Dark Ages, in fact,

  • from a period of deep fear and confusion with respect to who we are,

  • what we are doing, how we relate to each other,

  • not to mention how we relate to the habitat that spawned us.

  • On one side of the spectrum we have a vast spectacle of human conceit:

  • stubborn ignorance, so much so that if you are like me,

  • sometimes you wonder why we should try at all.

  • That maybe this species deserves everything it gets

  • and its fate as an evolutionary cul-de-sac,

  • a failed genetic mutation, might be an ideal hope for this universe.

  • Cynicism aside however,

  • it's easy to see that there is a growing change in the minority

  • which will slowly become majority if we let it.

  • An awakening is happening, an awakening

  • where people have stopped imposing their traditional ideals

  • and various ideological baggage on the world,

  • and instead are starting to listen,

  • listening to what the tools of our ingenuity have afforded us,

  • listening to the message of nature itself.

  • If there is any context which needs a serious intervention

  • with respect to the natural laws that govern us,

  • if there is any context where we need to simply pay attention,

  • prepare to drop all of our prior assumptions and change accordingly,

  • it is in the economic context.

  • Economics is not just some arbitrary abstraction

  • for processing and distributing resources.

  • It is an underlying value molder that programs us into modes of behavior

  • that extend into all areas of our psychology.

  • It is the active global religion whether people like it or not,

  • and for those of us that wish to see reason triumph over dogma,

  • we have a long, long road ahead.

  • Advocates of the free-market model of economics will tell you

  • that there is no other system possible to calculate society,

  • that the competitive basis is the only way

  • to incentivize our primitive culture.

  • They will tell you that reduced economic interference of government

  • is the key to preserving the true integrity of the market economy

  • and also preserve our so-called liberty,

  • which they say would be quickly corrupted

  • as tyranny and oppression must occur

  • if any type of collaborative, designed economic practice was applied.

  • They talk of the 'true' free market:

  • a utopian ideal that claims the invisible hand,

  • if allowed to run without interference, would alleviate the poverty,

  • deprivation, abuse, corruption, conflict and inefficiency

  • so common in the world today.

  • Well, as with all religions, delusion is common,

  • because today the market is actually more free than ever

  • with the state being nothing more than a parent corporation

  • working to assist its commercial subsidiaries which support it.

  • Everything is for sale, and no one is accountable.

  • All natural laws and physical realities that would comprise the basis

  • for true technical earthly efficiency

  • and awareness and reasoning that, if allowed,

  • can literally transform the world into a place

  • with vast abundance and prosperity never before seen,

  • have been buried and dismissed,

  • only to be overshadowed by a certain kind of efficiency,

  • market efficiency, an efficiency that tracks money and money alone,

  • an efficiency that is literally decoupled

  • from everything that supports and secures life itself,

  • an efficiency that is circular in its reasoning

  • as it has no recognition of the physical laws of nature,

  • the laws of nature, which are, in fact, the only real true government

  • and regulatory system that has or will ever exist.

  • But then again, who is to say it matters?

  • Maybe we should all just take it in stride.

  • Maybe this reality show of humankind,

  • this satirical tragic parody of itself, to be sure,

  • doing all it knows, maybe this is the way it is

  • and our brains, our genes are messed up,

  • and we are just waiting for the final laugh track

  • when Spaceship Earth slams into that psychological brick wall.

  • I guess time will tell.

  • And until then, sit back, grab some popcorn

  • and keep watching the greatest reality show of all time.

  • And until next time, I am Peter Joseph,

  • an agent and victim of a Culture in Decline.

  • Would you like to talk about the economy?

- Modest preemptive actions can obviate the need

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衰落中的文化|第2集 "經濟學101",彼得-約瑟夫主講 (Culture in Decline | Episode #2 "Economics 101" by Peter Joseph)

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    王惟惟 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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