Name: 【TED】機器人會偷走你的工作，但沒關係 (Federico Pistono at TEDx Vienna - Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK)
Uploaded: 2017-08-19T21:59:58.000Z
Duration: 17 min 24 s

情態副詞

TEDx Vienna. X= independently organized TED event

Hello everyone.  Hi, welcome. How are you doing today? Good?

附加問句

Well, let me fix that for you. I'll talk about jobs.

那我換一下好了 我將要談論工作

Can I have please a quick show of hands? Raise your hand

請問我能夠快速看看各位的舉手嗎? 請舉起你的手

if you either work or know somebody close to you

或知道熟人也在這些領域工作的話:

How about driving: That's trucks, delivery, buses, taxis, anything.

關於開車的行業如何? 包括卡車 貨運 公車 計程車等等

請舉起你的手 那保全警衛又是如何?

No one? No one knows anyone who works... Ok, good.

沒有人嗎? 沒有人知道任何人的工作是在... 很好

Secretaries, real estate, accounting, retail, manufacturing, journalism...

秘書 不動產 會計 零售 製造業 新聞業...

Ok, let's say it's about 70% of you. Good.

This is how I was greeted by the establishment of economists

這就是我如何被"主流"經濟學家招呼的方式

about four years ago, when I first started thinking about these issues.

當我四年前開始思考這些問題的時候

At that time, I helped start an organization called the Zeitgeist Movement,

在那時 我幫忙創建一個叫作"時代精神運動"的組織

and we were thinking of ways on how to build a better society.

而我們當時正思考著如何建立一個更好的社會

At that time, nobody took us seriously, but things have changed now.

那時候無人認真看待我們 但現在勢態已變

What changed? Well, very few people are laughing.

改變了什麼呢? 呃 幾乎沒有人覺得好笑了

[In] 2009, Martin Ford comes up with [book] 'The Lights in the Tunnel',

在2009年 Martin Ford寫了一本書叫作"隧道裡的光"

where he paints a picture of an increasingly automated economy:

其中他描繪了一個日益自動化的經濟體系:

Lots of jobs are being replaced by machines,

[In] 2011, two MIT economists have pretty much the same thesis.

在2011年 兩位麻省理工學院的經濟學家也有相當類似的論點

So, let's look at the evidence for this. Shall we?

Kodak, the once undisputed giant of the photography industry,

不用說 "柯達"曾經是攝影器材產業中的巨人

had a 90% market share in the US in 1976.

在1976年的美國有高達90%的市占率

By the year 1984, they were employing 145,000 people, and in 2012,

到了1984年 他們雇用了14.5萬名員工 而在2012年

they had a networth of negative $1 billion when they went bankrupt.

當他們破產時 擁用十億美元的"負"資產淨值

the importance of exponential trends when it comes to technology.

科技的指數型發展趨勢所帶來的威力

On the other hand, Instagram, a digital photography company,

另一方面 Instagram是一間數位攝影公司

[in] the same year (2012), had 13 employees;

and they were sold to Facebook for $1 billion.

但他們以10億美元的價值被賣給"臉書"

This is kind of ironic because Kodak pioneered digital photography.

這對"柯達"而言是諷刺的 因為它是數位攝影的開拓先鋒

They actually invented the first digital camera

它們實際上發明了第一台數位相機

when they came out in 1975 with a 0.01 Mpix digital camera,

當它們在1975年製造出一台0.01百萬像素的數位相機時

but they thought it was a toy and they didn't pay attention,

但他們認為這只是台玩具所以就不重視

so that's what happens with exponentials.  We don't pay attention.

因此這就是指數型科技進步的威力 人們並未注意到

Let's play a little game with you.  Let's be a more interactive school: 30 Steps.

讓我們玩點小遊戲吧 更有點互動性的學習:30步

Imagine I take 30 steps lineary: That's one, two, three...

想像我直線前進了30步 也就是一步、兩步、三步...

How about if I take 30 steps exponentially? 2,4,8,16...

但如果我用指數的方式前進30步呢? 即2、4、8、16步...

By the way, this is not the scale.  The Moon is much further away

順便一提 這不是真正的比例規模 月球當然遠在天邊

and back, and I still have enough steps to circle the Earth

但我仍然會有足夠的步數環繞地球

That's what exponential means. How do I know this?

這就是"指數型"的意思 我如何知道這點呢?

因為我剛剛問了Wolphram Alpha(新的智慧搜尋引擎)

Foxconn [is] the world's largest manufacturer of electronic components.

富士康是世上最大的電子零件製造商

They make pretty much anything, so if you've got something on your lap

它們製造相當多的東西 所以如果有東西在你的膝部上

or in your pocket that makes noises and is blinky and bright,

或你的口袋中 並且發出噪音還閃閃發亮

and it's probably tweeting right now, they made it.

而且可能現在正發出吱吱聲 那就是它們製造的

不只製造蘋果的產品 而是製造任何東西

It's a multinational corporation worth $100 billion,

What are they doing? They're automating, of course.

但它們正在做什麼? 當然是自動化了

In fact, they are about to deploy an army of 1 million robots

事實上 它們即將部署100萬名機器人大軍

to 'cut rising labour expenses and improve efficiency'.

以"減少上升的勞動成本並改善效率"

Canon is doing the same, going fully automated very soon.

"佳能"公司也正在做同樣的事 很快就會完全自動化生產

Lots of other companies are following.  Now, what if Walmart follows?

許多其它公司都在跟進中 如果現在"沃爾瑪"跟進的話會怎樣?

[It's the] biggest multinational corporation in the world, employs 2.1 million people.

它是世上最大的跨國公司 雇用了210萬名員工

Well, they can't, right? They don't have the technology to do that.

呃 它們不能 對吧? 它們沒有那種科技

They most certainly do.  Amazon knows this very well.

但它們當然會有! 亞馬遜書店非常清楚知道這點

This is a graph made by fellow-author Andrew McAfee from MIT.

這是MIT的作家Andrew McAfee製作的圖表

As you can see, profits and investments are all going up and up and up

如同你可以看到的 利潤和投資全都不斷在上升

for corporate investments and multinational corporations;

對於公司投資和跨國企業而言皆然

but the red line, which is the employment to population ratio

但是警戒線在於 就業人口佔總人口的比例

and we both agree that when it comes to automation,

You know, the futuristic car that drives itself without a human driver.

你懂的 未來的車輛能自己駕駛而不需要人類

I was inside, this is me at NASA a few months ago,

我當時人在車內 我幾個月前在NASA的時候

and it's a pretty neat piece of technology.  They have all sorts of sensors,

它是相當不錯的科技結晶 擁有所有的感應器

lasers, GPS, and machine learning algorithms,

雷射 全球衛星定位系統和機械學習演算法

drives itself.   It's safer, better than any human driver, doesn't get tired,

自動駕駛 這比任何人類駕駛員更安全且更好 機器不會累

follows every street rule, never crashes, never breaks any rule whatsoever.

遵守每個交通規則 不會衝撞 不會任何違規等等

Basically it just works, and it's better than humans.

基本上就是行得通 而且比人類更好

Problem is, 3.6 million people in the US alone

但問題在於 光是美國就有360萬人

work driving, meaning they drive for a living.

[In] Austria and Europe, they have very similar numbers.

在奧地利和歐洲 也有類似的統計數字

I think these people might be affected by this kind of technology, don't you?

我認為這些人們可能會受到這種科技的影響 不是嗎?

Accounting, retail, manufacturing, translations;

Journalism, as the Wall Street Journal puts it

關於新聞業 如同華爾街日報所言

字幕列表影片播放

【TED】機器人會偷走你的工作，但沒關係 (Federico Pistono at TEDx Vienna - Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK)

massive

applause

purpose

reality