Trump’s inauguration means change!

川普總統就職意味著改變！

And not just for that Chinese Obama impersonator

而且不僅是因為那位中國山寨歐巴馬

who's about to be out of a job.

即將失業

Hi, welcome to China Uncensored,

歡迎收看《中國解密》

I’m your host Chris Chappell.

我是主持人 Chris Chappell

This Friday,

本週五

Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th president

川普即將成為美國第 45 任

of the United States.

總統

Now Trump has repeatedly said he’ll be hard on China

川普曾一再表示，他上任後

when he enters office.

會嚴厲對待中國

Exact details are a bit sparse,

不過仍缺乏具體執行政策

but hey,

不過，嘿

how could you not trust this guy?

你怎麼能不相信這傢伙呢？

You know,

你知道嗎

it used to be politicians just needed to wear a flag pin

以往的政治人物都只需配戴國旗胸針

to prove they loved America.

便足以證明他們對美國的愛

Anyway,

無論如何

it's clear that the relationship between China and the US

很明顯的，中國和美國的關係將

will never be the same.

不同於以往

But what’s gonna change?

但什麼將會改變呢？

I mean,

我的意思是

China already built a wall and paid for it—

中國已經付錢建了一座高牆

but that was ages ago.

不過那是老早以前的事了

So let’s take a look at 5 YUUUGE ways Trump’s inauguration

所以就讓我們一起來看，川普就職將會

is going to change US-China relations.

帶來中美關係的五項巨大改變

Number 5

第五項

Currency Manipulation

貨幣操縱

Donald Trump has promised to label China

川普曾承諾會將中國貼上

a “currency manipulator.”

「貨幣操縱國」的標籤

I’m going to instruct my Treasury Secretary

「我將吩咐我的財政部長

to label China a currency manipulator,

將中國貼上貨幣操縱國的標籤

which should have been done years ago.

我們在多年前就該這麼做了」

Yes, it should have been done years ago.

的確，許多年前就該這麼做了

For much of the last 20 years,

在過去將近 20 之間

the Chinese regime manipulated its currency

中國政府操縱了它的貨幣

to keep it weak,

以維持低匯率

so that China could become the world leader in cheap labor,

使中國擁有全球最廉價的勞工

cheap goods,

廉價的商品

and confused childhoods.

以及混亂的童年

That made China’s economy grow.

這個作法讓中國經濟大幅成長

But it’s also one of many reasons

但同時也是美國流失

why the US lost millions of manufacturing jobs.

數百萬份製造業工作的眾多原因之一

It also helped create a huge trade imbalance

此外，也導致了美中貿易

with China.

的極度不平衡

But more recently,

但最近

the Chinese regime has the opposite problem.

中國政府面臨著相反的問題

China’s economy is slowing down.

中國經濟正在趨緩

And wealthy Chinese are moving their money out of the country.

而且有錢人開始將資金移出中國

These are two reasons why the Chinese currency

這使得中國貨幣

is weak to the point of being unhealthy.

走弱到病態的兩項原因

So now the regime has been manipulating their currency

因此現在中國改以

the other way,

反向操縱其貨幣的方式

trying to keep it strong.

試圖維持人民幣走強

In other words,

換句話說

the Chinese regime is now manipulating their currency

目前中國政府操縱貨幣的方式

in a way that helps the US.

是在幫助美國

So even if Trump could force China

因此，即便川普真的能迫使中國

to stop manipulating its currency now...

停止操縱貨幣…

it wouldn’t really benefit the US.

這並不會對美國有利

Of course, labeling China a “currency manipulator”

當然，將中國貼上 「貨幣操縱國」的標籤

doesn't actually force them to do anything.

實際上也無法強迫他們做任何事

So Trump has another idea:

所以川普有了另一個點子：

Slap tariffs on China.

課徵中國關稅

But that could lead to...

而這可能會導致…

Number 4

第四項

Trade War

貿易戰

Ah, the kind of war whose greatest weapon

啊，這種戰爭的終極武器

is how boring it is to talk about.

就是讓大家覺得超級枯燥乏味

This really deserves its own episode.

這真的需要錄製另一集才能解釋清楚

But Trump has been criticizing trade with China

但自從共和黨初選以來

since the Republican primaries.

川普便不斷批評中美貿易：

China is ripping us on trade,

「中國透過貿易持續剝削我們

devaluing their currency

讓人民幣貶值

and killing our companies.

讓我們的公司損失慘重」

Of course it’s always important to remember

當然，我們必須了解

what presidents say on the campaign trail

總統在競選活動期間的言論

and what they actually do

與他們實際的作為

are two very different things.

是完全兩碼子事

When Bill Clinton first ran,

當比爾·柯林頓初次競選總統時

he criticized George Bush Senior

他批評老布希

for being soft on the “butchers of Beijing.”

對「北京的屠夫」太過軟弱

And then…

然後…

well, that’s sort of the reason why we’re where we are now.

好吧，這就是為什麼 我們會落得今天這個下場

Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese imports.

川普曾威脅要課徵中國進口關稅

That’s going to be challenging,

這將會挺有挑戰性的

because legally, you can only put tariffs on specific goods,

因為在法律上 你只能對特定商品課徵關稅

not on an entire country.

而非針對整個國家

And I mean you can’t.

但我說的是你不行

Trump will probably decide he can do anything he wants.

川普可能認為他可以做任何他想做的事

Even it it means flying in the face of international trade laws.

即使這意味著，明顯地觸犯國際貿易法

And starting a trade war.

並開啟一場貿易戰爭

And the loser in that...

而這場戰爭的輸家…

would be the Chinese regime.

會是中國政府

China’s economy is slowing,

[為經濟放緩做預備，中國於 2017 年針對資產泡沫化制定更嚴格的政策] 中國經濟正在趨緩

and the regime has maintained its grip on power

而政府承諾人民會維持經濟的穩定

by promising economic stability.

藉此掌控權力

Anything that poses a risk to that poses a risk

任何可能對維持經濟穩定造成危險的東西

to the Communist Party’s leadership.

都對共產黨政權的維繫帶來危險

As for the US,

對美國來說

a trade war would hurt,

貿易戰爭可能會在短期內造成傷害

but not as much as it would hurt China.

但對中國造成的傷害會更加嚴重

China could lose millions of jobs,

中國可能會失去數百萬份就業機會

while the US could always buy its cheap nightmare toys

而美國如果在適當條件下 可能會有一些製造業回流

from Malaysia, Vietnam, and so on.

或者美國總是可以 轉而向馬來西亞、越南等

So what does Xi Jinping think about this?

諸如此類的國家購買廉價的超雷玩具

It's hard to tell.

那麼習近平對此事有何看法呢？

Ok, actually, I guess it's pretty clear.

這很難說

Speaking of unwinnable wars...

[中國領導習近平：貿易戰只會兩敗俱傷] 好吧，我想答案還蠻清楚的

Number 3

說到兩敗俱傷的戰爭…

North Korea

第三項

Remember this fun little prediction

北韓

back in September last year?

還記得去年九月這個

Probably by the end of the first term

有趣的小預測嗎？

of the person we’re electing this November,

「大概在我們選出來的這位總統

they are going to have the ability

第一個任期結束時

to put nuclear warheads on missiles

他們將具備足夠的能力

that can reach the West Coast of the United States.

將核彈頭裝在

Well, we now know that person is Trump.

足以抵達美國西海岸的導彈上」

The Hermit Kingdom is,

好吧，我們現在知道這個人是川普

well, kind of in everyone’s face right now.

北韓這隱士國家

North Korea now has enough plutonium

嗯，似乎跟所有人都槓上了

to make 10 nuclear bombs.

北韓目前擁有足夠的鈽存量

Thanks, Obama.

能製造 10 枚核彈

Sorry, I know that doesn’t make any sense here,

謝啦，歐巴馬

but it's basically the last time I can use that.

抱歉，我知道這句話用在這裡不太對

Really, we have this guy to thank,

但基本上這是我最後一次能說這句話了

walking hemorrhoid and former Chinese leader,

說真的，我們該感謝的是這個傢伙

Jiang Zemin.

便祕大叔兼前中國領導人

According to this Radio Free Asia report,

江澤民

he started giving nuclear material to North Korea

根據自由亞洲電台的報導

after he took office in 1989.

他在 1989 年上任後

Anyway, Trump holds China partly responsible

便開始供應核原料給北韓

for the North Korean nuclear problem.

總之，川普認為中國對於

So China should get involved,

北韓核武問題應負起部分責任

and China should solve that problem,

「所以中國應該參與此事

and we should put pressure on China

並且解決北韓問題

to solve the problem.

而我們也應該對中國施壓

But Trump doesn’t want to just rely on China.

來解決北韓問題」

Maybe it’s a lot better for us,

但川普不想只依賴中國

if Japan pays its own way,

「如果日本能負點責任

they arm and they take care of North Korea

武裝起來並處理北韓

instead of us taking care of it.

而不是都靠我們來處理

And he’s said similar things about South Korea.

也許對我們來說會比較好，對吧？」

But South Korea should pay us,

他也對南韓說了類似的話

and pay us very substantially,

「但南韓應該付我們錢

for protecting them.

付我們很大一筆錢

Or else they can just protect themselves.

因為我們保護了他們」

So Trump’s solution to a nuclear North Korea

或者他們可以自己想辦法保護自己

is a nuclear South Korea

所以川普對核武北韓的解決方式就是

and a nuclear Japan.

製造出核武南韓

Which will go down so well with nuclear China.

以及核武日本

One big nuclear family.

我相信核武中國絕對會欣然接受

Let’s just hope they don’t go hugging each other

一個「核諧」大家族

with nuclear arms.

只希望他們不要來個

But what happens to the children of divorce?

核的抱抱

Well, that brings us to...

但離婚之後孩子該怎麼辦？

Number 2

這個嘛，就讓我們來看看…

Taiwan

第二項

Trump was changing US-Taiwan relations

台灣

even before becoming president.

川普甚至在還沒上任前

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province

就已經在改變美台關係了

and is committed to reunification.

中國視台灣為一個脫離的省份

And by reunification they mean conquest.

並致力於統一大業

But the Chinese regime has been kind enough

所謂統一指的其實是征服

to hold off invasion plans

不過中國政府人最好了

as long as everyone agrees

只要所有人都同意一中政策

to the One China policy—

他們便會延後執行

where everyone collectively pretends that Taiwan

侵略計畫

is not a country.

一中政策就是所有國家集體假裝台灣

So they weren’t happy when Trump

不是個國家

became the first president in over 40 years

所以中國很不爽川普

to accept a phone call

因為他是超過 40 年來

from the president of Taiwan—

第一位美國總統接聽

and then say the entire One China Policy is negotiable.

來自台灣總統的電話

Now, state-run media China Daily is saying

[川普暗示美國能終止一中政策] 而且接著還說一中政策是可談判的

“China will take off the gloves,”

中國官媒《中國日報指出》

if Trump continues.

「如果川普一意孤行

What does that mean?

中國將不惜脫下手套」

Well according to hardcore state-run media,

他們究竟想表達什麼？

the Global Times,

根據鐵桿官媒

that means merciless reunification.

《環球時報》指稱

And they really mean it.

這意味著無情的統一

No, seriously.

他們是認真的

Seriously.

我是說真的

And speaking of disputed territories

真的啦

that I have personally been to...

說到我親自去過的

Number 1

爭議領土…

The South China Sea

第一項

Well, if Taiwan is the region

南海

that China doesn’t really want to go to war over,

如果說台灣

the South China Sea is the US’s war bluff.

是中國事實上不想為之開戰的地區

The Chinese military has been aggressively expanding

那南海就是美國 虛張聲勢說要打仗的地區

in disputed territorial waters there.

中國軍方於有領土爭議性的海域中

China may or may not have historical claims to that region,

不斷積極地擴張勢力範圍

but man—does the Communist Party

無論中國對該地區所宣示的主權是否有歷史依據

have to be such jerks about it?

但我的天啊

Attacking fishermen?

中共有必要這麼沒品嗎？

Building military bases?

[中國持續攻擊越南漁船] 攻擊漁民？

I mean, what ever happened to “sharing is caring,” people?

[美國官方指出，中國派遣上百枚導彈至受爭議島嶼] 建立軍事基地？

Sharing is something you can do

你們難道都沒聽過 「分享即關懷」這句話嗎？

whenever you want to.

分享是你隨時隨地

Do they even have Care Bears in China?

都可以做的事

Ok, sort of.

中國搞不好根本沒有愛心熊？

Back to the South China Sea.

好吧，有類似的

In the last few years under President Obama,

再回來談南海議題

US naval presence flooded the region,

在過去幾年歐巴馬總統執政期間

intimidating China so much that...

美國海軍多到快把南海給淹沒了

they would steal a research drone right in front of them.

讓中國驚嚇到…

But according to Trump’s new Secretary of State,

當著美國海軍的面 偷了一台研究用無人潛航器

that’s going to change.

但根據川普的新國務卿表示

We’re going to have to send China a clear signal

這局勢即將改變

that first the island-building stops

「我們必須向中國傳達一個明確的訊息

and second your access to those islands

首先，停止建設人工島嶼

is also not going to be allowed.”

接著，禁止進入

Using the US military to blockade China from the region

南海那些島嶼」

would be a big change.

用美軍封鎖中國進入該地區

It would also put Chinese leader Xi Jinping at risk.

確實是挺大的改變

He’s locked in a massive battle for power

這也將會使中國領導人習近平陷入危機

over the Communist Party.

他目前正困於一場中共內部

Xi can’t afford to look weak,

大規模的權力鬥爭

especially against the US

習近平不能示弱

on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

特別是在針對

If Trump has an aggressive China policy,

台灣及南海等議題上對美國的回應

Xi may be forced to take a more aggressive stance

如果川普制定強勢的中國政策

against the US to maintain his position.

習近平可能會被迫採取 更加強硬的態度

Trump has been...unpredictable.

對抗美國以維持其地位

At first,

川普一直令人…難以預測

many thought Trump’s isolationist policies

剛開始

would pull the US out of Asia

許多人認為川普的孤立政策

and let China sweep the South China Sea.

會使美國撤離亞洲

But it’s looking like that’s not going to happen.

並且讓中國橫掃南海

So as we move forward

但現在看起來這不會發生了

into the beginning of the Trump Presidency,

因此，隨著美國人民向前

may it be huge and everlasting,

正式邁向川普總統執政

what do you think is in store for the US?

讓我們預祝其昌榮持久

And China?

你認為美國的未來會是什麼模樣？

Leave your comments below.

中國的未來又是如何？

Once again I’m Chris Chappell,

請於下方留言

and you know what,

我是主持人 Chris Chappell

why the heck not,

算了

one last time!

管他的

Thanks, Obama.

最後一次！