This chart showing share prices falling even as earnings forecasts are upgraded says it all.

這張圖表說明了一切：即使盈餘預測上升，股價仍持續下跌

Investors clearly don't have much faith that those profits can continue for long.

投資者顯然不太相信那些利潤能持續很長一段時間

Car sales have peaked in the United States and seemingly in the UK, too.

汽車銷量在美國達到頂峰，在英國看似也是如此。

Investors fear that shrinking volumes and weaker pricing in the down leg of the cycle,

但投資者害怕在成交量下滑，價格走弱的循環中，

will be exacerbated by the leverage in their financial services subsidiaries.

會因金融服務子公司的槓桿作用而加劇

These are vast undertakings, as this chart shows.

這些都是龐大的企業，正如這個圖表所顯示。

And in addition to generating extra profits,

除了賺取額外的利潤外，

financing operations have helped car makers

金融機構也幫助汽車製造商

sell bigger and more profitable cars more frequently.

更頻繁地出售更大且更有利可圖的汽車

But could they now pose an existential threat to manufacturers?

但他們現在會對製造商構成生存威脅嗎？

Many investors worry that falling used car prices and rising interest rates

許多投資人擔心二手車價格下跌和利率上升

could expose bad lending and trigger write-downs,

可能會導致不良貸款並引起帳面價值的虧損

although car makers contend that their expectations of secondhand car values

儘管汽車製造商聲稱他們對於二手車價值的預期

are actually very conservative.

實際上非常的保守

And let's face it.

讓我們一起面對吧

There is little evidence of looming stress in the bond or stock markets.

幾乎沒有證據顯示債券或股票市場有迫近的壓力。

Finance subsidiaries can still raise funds at very, very low interest rates.

金融子公司依然能夠以非常低的利率籌措資金。

Volkswagen has just securitized 89,000 Spanish car loans

Volkswagen 剛完成了 89,000 輛西班牙汽車貸款的證券化　

at just 38 basis points over one month Euribor.

只比歐元銀行同業拆款月利率多了 0.038%

That's the lowest rate for asset-backed issuance in Spain since the financial crisis.

這是西班牙自金融危機到現在以資產為基礎發行的最低利率

And last month, Societé Générale floated its auto finance subsidiary ALD ,

而上個月，法國興業銀行提高了其汽車金融子公司 ALD 的帳面價值

at almost twice its book value.

將近原來的兩倍

That's a rating most banks can only dream about.

那是大多數銀行作夢也達不到的等級。

Moderation of the leasing boom will hurt car makers,

租賃蓬勃的緩和將傷害汽車製造商，

but unless the markets have got it very wrong,

但除非市場錯得很離譜

the financial risk posed by the fincos to the automakers themselves is fairly small.

要不然融資公司對汽車廠商所造成的金融風險是相當微小的