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Sterling took a knock today after new research from YouGov suggested
在 YouGov 公布的最新調查報告顯示保守黨可能無法在 6/18 號
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that the conservatives could fail to win an overall majority
的議會大選中保有多數黨的地位後
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in the UK's June the 8th general election.
今天英鎊因此而下跌
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The pollsters' findings caught the market's attention
這個民意調查在亞洲市場交易時間發布
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when they were released during Asian trade,
並獲取了市場的注意
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and the pressure stayed on the pound for much of the European morning
也在歐洲的早晨持續對英鎊帶來了
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by enough for it to fall under its closing level on April the 18th,
足夠的壓力,讓它跌破了 4/18 時的收盤價
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the day Theresa May called the election.
英國首相德蕾莎 · 梅伊就是在 4/18 時公布議會大選的日期
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But the pound pared its losses as a more nuanced view of the research emerged
然而英鎊的下跌有趨緩的情形,這 是因為出現了對選情更細緻的觀察,以及
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and the less dramatic findings of other polls were factored into investors' thinking.
其他較保守的民意調查的公布,讓投資人產生了不同的看法
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Sterling fought back from its low point under $1.28,
英鎊從 $1.28 的低點回升
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back above that level, leaving it steady overall on the session.
並突破這個低點,讓整體英鎊走勢成穩定狀態
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Analysts currently agreed that the importance of UK politics
最近分析師們同意近期英國政治
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as the main near term influence on the currency, is difficult to overstate.
對貨幣的的影響力是相當重要且不容小覷的
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During the campaign, the pound has generally risen with the poll ratings of the government,
在競選期間,英鎊整體走勢是隨著政府的民意支持度而上升
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and come under pressure when there's a perception that the election races tightened.
並在選情緊張時為英鎊帶來壓力。
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The turbulence leaves the pound short of its recent high of $1.30,
這些浮動讓英鎊的價格比最近的高點 $1.30 還低
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which came when expectations of a bigger conservative majority peaked.
而當初這個高點就是在保守黨的聲望達到頂峰時發生的
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Don't forget, the pound was trading at over $1.48 before the Brexit vote last year.
別忘記去年英國脫歐之前英鎊匯率還曾達到 $1.48
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While that valuation is a distant memory,
雖然這個匯率已經很久遠了
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it does look as if investors will need to stay tuned into UK politics
但看起來投資人的確需要關注英國的政治情況
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after the labor party's strong campaign, and significant fight back in the polls.
尤其是在工黨競選活動的成功與民意支持度的回升後
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The longer term outlook for the pound will, of course,
英鎊長期的走勢當然還是
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be defined by the makeup of the next government,
決定在下一任政府的組成,
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and what investors think that will mean for
以及投資者預期這個新政府
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the kind of Brexit agreement it will reach with the EU.
會與歐盟達成什麼樣的英國脫歐協定
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But before the polling that really matters, at the ballot box on June the 8th,
然而在 6/8 大選開票之前
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there is likely to be further volatility ahead.
還是很有可能有各種波動