DIVERSITY WITHIN THE UNITED STATES WITH SUPPORT FOR DONALD

TRUMP IN LAST YEAR'S ELECTION.

WHAT WE HAVE YEAR HERE IS AN

ACADEMIC STUDY WHERE PEOPLE WERE ASKED A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS

ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN AS MORE DIVERSITY

ENTERS INTO DIFFERENT PARTS OF

AMERICAN LIFE.

AND USING THE ANSWERS THEY CONSTRUCTED A SCALE

ON HOW POSITIVELY OR NEGATIVELY YOU VIEW RISING DIVERSITY IN THE

COUNTRY.

THEY FOUND INTERESTING RESULTS WHEN YOU MAP THAT ON

RECENT POLITICAL EVENTS.

LET'S LOOK AT HOW A COUPLE OF

DIFFERENT GROUPS DEFER.

UC DEMOCRATS ARE MORE POSITIVE THAN

DEMOCRATS.

SO THAT

IS INTERESTING, BUT THAT IS NOT THE

MOST.

LET'S BRING UP THE NEXT

CHART.

WHAT YOU HAVE HERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOMEBODY WHO VOTED

FOR OBAMA WOULD THEN GO ON TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP.

WHEN YOU

HAVE IS A MORE POSITIVE VIEW OF DIVERSITY ON THE LEFT, AND IT

GETS MORE NEGATIVE TO THE RIGHT.

ALSO AS YOU GO TO THE RIGHT THE

ODDS THAT AN OBAMA VOTER WOULD

SWITCH OVER TO TRUMP HAS A MASSIVE EFFECT ON THEIR

LIKELIHOOD, RISING FROM ALMOST A

0% CHANCE TO UP TO .5.

THERE WERE NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT

COULD POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED, BUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF

PERCENTAGE WHEN WE'RE TALKING

ABOUT

THE ENTIRE ELECTORATE.

AS THEY GET MORE AND MORE NEGATIVE

WITH RISING DIVERSITY THAT GOES

DOWN TO NOTHING.

WHAT YOU MIGHT SAY IS THIS DOESN'T SEEM ALL

THAT SURPRISING.

ALL YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT REPUBLICANS VIEW

THINGS ONE WAY, AND LIBERALS ANOTHER.

THE CLASSIC DIFFERENCE

BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND

REPUBLICANS.

BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE, THIS IS SOMETHING A

HISTORIC.

HERE YOU WILL SEE THE EFFECT ON TRUMP VOTERS.

FOR

ROMNEY VOTERS AND FOR MCCAIN VOTERS THERE IS A SMALL EFFECT

IN LIKELIHOOD OF SUPPORTING THE CANDIDATE BASED ON YOUR VIEW OF

DIVERSITY.

BUT IT IS FAR AND AWAY A STRONGER EFFECT FOR

DONALD TRUMP.

>> THAT IS NOT SURPRISING EITHER BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE DENY IT.

THE

REASON IS BECAUSE TRUMP RAN THE CAMPAIGN BASED ON THAT.

HE SAID

WE WILL DO A TOTAL AND COMPLETE

SHUTDOWN ON MUSLIMS.

HE SAID WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A WALL TO

KEEP OUT THE LATINOS.

HE QUESTIONED BARACK OBAMA'S

CITIZENSHIP.

THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT YOU EMPHASIZE WHEN

YOU WANT TO ATTRACT VOTERS THAT

DON'T LIKE DIVERSITY.

I GUESS IN SOME WAYS IT IS CHARITABLE TO

REPUBLICAN VOTERS.

TRUMP VOTERS DISLIKE DIVERSITY MORE THAN A

REGULAR ROMNEY MCCAIN VOTER.

>> THEY ARE CONTROLLING FOR ALL SORTS OF THINGS, EVEN VIEWS ON

IMMIGRATION.

THIS IS NOT SORT OF A GENERALIZED THING ABOUT RACE.

THIS IS SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE CHANGE IN AMERICAN CULTURE AND

BUSINESS THAT WILL COME UP AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASE OF

DIVERSITY.

>> I HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY OF THIS

STUDY.

I DO WANT TO KNOW THAT THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER STUDIES

THAT FOUND VERY DIFFERENT

RESULTS.

I HAVE READ THAT SURGES IN TRUMP SUPPORT TO CORRELATE

WITH WHERE MEDIAN INCOME HAS DECLINED OVER THE YEARS.

IT'S

THE REASON BEHIND HIM GETTING SUPPORT WHERE HE DID.

I DO THINK

THERE ARE ELEMENTS OF TRUTH TO

THIS RESEARCH.

TO TAKE THAT TO MEAN THAT THEY ARE NECESSARILY

MOTIVATED BY RACIAL ANXIETY IS A BIT OF A LEAP.

OBVIOUSLY RACIAL

ANXIETY PLAYS A ROLE HERE.

BUT WHAT I WORRY ABOUT THIS STUDY

AND THE MEANS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THIS IDEA THAT

RACIAL ANXIETY IS MORE DETERMINATIVE OF WHAT HAPPENED

THAN ECONOMIC ANXIETY, IT IS SELF EXCULPATORY IN A

WAY.

HE DID WIN BECAUSE HE WAS ABLE TO SPEAK MORE DIRECTLY TO

THE LOWER SOCIOECONOMIC STRATA IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

>> IT'S NOT ABOUT WHETHER WE CHOOSE TO TAKE THE BLAME FOR

SOMETHING.

WE LOOK AT THE DATA AND WE SEE WHAT IT SAYS.

IF WE

LEARN THE WRONG LESSON FROM AN ELECTION WE CAN CONTINUE TO LOSE

ELECTIONS.

IN TERMS OF YOUR QUESTION ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY

IT'S A VERY GOOD QUESTION.

IT'S NOT ABOUT WHETHER THEY ARE

RIGHTS THAT DIVERSITY WOULD BE A BAD THING.

THEY ARE ALSO

CONTROLLING FOR SOCIOECONOMIC

STATUS.

IT'S ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT IS A PREDICTOR OF YOUR

BEHAVIOR.

>> I JUST QUESTION WHETHER THESE PARTICULAR QUESTIONS ARE THE

BEST WAY TO GAUGE SOMEONE'S

ATTITUDE ABOUT THE UTILITY OF DIVERSITY.

THERE IS A QUESTION

HERE ABOUT HOW THERE ARE NOT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH JOBS

FOR EVERYBODY.

THAT WOULD BE ACCURATE AND THE IDEA THAT YOU

WANT TO EXTRAPOLATE FROM THAT, TO ME JUST SEEMS LIKE A BIT OF A

STRETCH.

I WOULD WANT TO SEE THIS REPLICATED IN FURTHER

STUDIES.

THE DATA IS IMPORTANT, BUT THIS PARTICULAR INQUIRY TO

ME RAISES QUESTIONS.

>> THAT WAS A GOOD SECOND QUESTION.

BUT IT IS NOT ABOUT

WHETHER THEY ARE RIGHT TO BE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY, IN YOUR

CASE YOU ARE SAYING THEY SHOULD

BE.

AND THEY ARE, NOT ABOUT WHETHER THEY ARE MORALLY WRONG TO BE

ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY.

>>BUT THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY IN THAT IT LESSENS

THEIR ECONOMIC PROSPECTS.

THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT IT BECAUSE THE

EFFECT OF THAT MORE DIVERSE WORKFORCE WILL MEAN THEY WILL BE

LEFT BEHIND.

WHEN THE HEADLINE

TAKE AWAY IS THAT THEY ARE ANXIOUS ABOUT DIVERSITY AND THAT

CORRELATES WITH SUPPORT FOR TRUNK, THAT MISSES THE

FUNDAMENTAL REASON WHY SOMEBODY

MIGHT RESPOND IN THE AFFIRMATIVE TO ONE OF THESE QUESTIONS.

>> ALSO THE EFFECT ON BUSINESSES, THEY HAVE TO HAVE

SOMETHING LIKE THIS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO GET TO THE ECONOMIC

COMPONENT.

THAT IS WHY THEY ASKED FOR FIVE DIFFERENT

QUESTIONS.

GENERALLY YOU FIND INCREDIBLY HIGH OVERLAPS TO

THESE QUESTIONS.

PEOPLE DON'T TEND TO ANSWER THAT THEY ARE

CONCERNED ABOUT ONE AND NOT THE

OTHER.

THEY TEND TO SPEAK IN PATTERNS.

BUT GOOD CONCERNS AND

THAT IS WHY NO ACADEMIC STUDY

CAN GO ON ITS OWN.

>>HERE

IS THE CONCLUSION THEY REACH, THEY FIND LITTLE EVIDENCE TO

SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT CONCERNS ABOUT TRADE DEALS OR A RIGGED

SYSTEM CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO A TRUMP VICTORY.

TO ME IF THAT IS THE TAKE AWAY THAT IS THE WRONG LESSON

LEARNED.

>> ON THAT I MOST AGREE WITH YOU.

>>THEY ARE SPECIFICALLY ASKING PEOPLE ABOUT THAT AND ARE

SHOWING THAT IT DIDN'T INFLUENCE THEIR VOTE.

>>

PEOPLE EXPRESS THEIR DISCONTENT IN A MULTITUDE OF WAYS.

>> I THINK THAT IS THE WRONG CONCLUSION AND IT DOESN'T

INVALIDATE THE STUDY.

I'M GOING TO HAVE TO ADJUDICATE HERE.

I

ACTUALLY AGREE WITH BOTH OF YOU

GUYS.

>> SHOULD WE SING KUMBAYA?

>> IT IS POSSIBLE YOU WILL THINK IF THERE IS MORE DIVERSITY IT IS

A GREAT THING, BUT THERE WILL BE

LESS JOBS.

THAT IS POSSIBLE.

I UNDERSTAND EITHER WAY THEY ARE

TESTING WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT DIVERSITY.

REMEMBER KEEP IN MIND

THAT THESE ARE OBAMA VOTERS.

HOW RACIST CAN THEY BE IF THEY VOTED

FOR THE BLACK GUY.

THE ANSWER IS STILL RACIST, BUT AT THE SAME

TIME YOU CANNOT JUST CONCLUDE IT

IS RACISM BECAUSE IF THEY WERE THAT RACIST THEY WOULDN'T HAVE

VOTED FOR OBAMA IN THE FIRST

PLACE.

>>THEY ARE SAYING IT CAN THEORETICALLY SHIFT A COUPLE OF

PERCENTAGE POINTS, WHICH IN AN ELECTION CAN EXPLAIN THE

DIFFERENCE.

>>WHICH THEN LEADS TO THE OBVIOUS CONCLUSION WHICH IS IT

WAS BOTH.

THAT'S WHY I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT HILLARY

CLINTON'S MOST ACCURATE COMMENT IS THE ONE SHE GOT MOST HATE FOR

WHICH IS THE BASKET OF

DEPLORABLE'S COMMENT.

EVERYONE CRITICIZED IT BUT HALF OF TRUMP

VOTERS ARE GUYS WHO DON'T LIKE THE OTHER GUYS.

AND HALF WERE

SUPER MAD ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

THE ECONOMIC SIDE WAS SUPER REAL AND

IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH RACE.

IT IS A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENT FACTORS FOR DIFFERENT PEOPLE.

>> BASICALLY EVERYBODY WOULD SEE THAT IT IS A CONFLUENCE OF

FACTORS.

ONE OF THE CONCLUSIONS

DRAWN IS THAT ECONOMIC ANXIETY WAS NOT A FACTOR.

>> THAT IS AN IMPROPER CONCLUSION FROM THEIR OWN STUDY.

>>WE TALKED ABOUT ONE SECTION.

WHEN THEY SAY THEY DON'T BELIEVE

THE TRADE POLICY HAD AN EFFECT THEY ALSO ASKED THEM QUESTIONS

ABOUT WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT TRADE AND THEY FOUND THOSE

ANSWERS DID NOT PREDICT SUPPORT FOR DONALD TRUMP.

THEY ASKED

SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER THE

SYSTEM IS RIGGED OR SET UP ñ

THAT'S NOT THE SAME QUESTIONS

THEY TALKED ABOUT IN THE EARLIER

PART.

>> I UNDERSTAND THERE ARE DIFFERENT FACTORS INVOLVED HERE.

THERE YOU HAVE A MIX OF WHAT

COULD BE, PROPAGANDA MIXED IN WITH YOUR GUT FEELINGS.

THE

REPUBLICANS FOR A LONG TIME HAVE BEEN DOING PROPAGANDA THAT

ELITES ARE GOOD PEOPLE.

ON THE OTHER HAND TRUMPETED HIT ELITES

IN THIS ELECTION.

BOTTOM LINE IS WHEN YOUR WAGES HAVE NOT GONE

UP, YOU ARE MAD.

SOMEONE CAN COME IN AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF

THAT, EVEN IF MARKETING GOT YOU TO BELIEVE THAT THE ELITES ARE

FINE.

IT CAN STILL MEAN THAT THEY ARE VOTING BASED ON THEIR

MADNESS, THE FACT THAT THEY ARE MAD, BUT WHEN ASKED THAT

SPECIFIC QUESTION THEY SAY NO, I AM PRO-ELITES.

>>I THINK THE ISSUE MIGHT BE THAT THE STUDY IS BASED ON

POLLING.

THE QUESTIONS ARE

RELATIVELY COMPLICATED AND MULTILAYERED.

NOT EVERYONE

THINKS ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC ANXIETY IN TERMS THAT ARE EASILY

RELATABLE TO POLLING QUESTIONS.

BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE STUDIES

THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ELECTION, THEY

RELIED ON MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME RISING.

>>THE PROBLEM WITH THAT ALSO IS THAT IF YOU ARE SIMPLY LOOKING

AT COUNTY LEVEL DATA YOU ARE NOT COMPLETING COMPLICATED

REGRESSIONS WHERE YOU CAN ACCOUNT FOR OTHER FACTORS.

THAT

MEANS IF YOU LOOK AT THE COUNTY YOU CAN ATTEMPT TO SAY THAT THIS

IS THE EXPLANATION FOR IT BUT YOU HAVE DOZENS OR HUNDREDS OF

VARIABLES THAT COULD BE INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME.

WHEREAS

IF YOU DO THE POLLING DATA, YOU HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT THEM

AND YOU CAN CONTROL FOR THOSE THINGS AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT

THE INDIVIDUAL FACTORS THAT ARE INFLUENCING THE OUTCOME.

>> OF COURSE YOU WOULD WANT TO DO A REGRESSION ANALYSIS.

>>THE REGRESSIVE LEFT AT IT AGAIN.

>> IT'S COMPLICATED.

THIS IS ONE STUDY, THERE WILL BE MANY.

BUT I

DO THINK ñ I AGREE WITH YOU.