Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • The Washington Consensus is a set of 10 economic policy prescriptions considered

  • to constitute the "standard" reform package promoted for crisis-wracked

  • developing countries by Washington, D.C.–based institutions such as the

  • International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and the US Treasury Department. It was

  • coined in 1989 by English economist John Williamson. The prescriptions

  • encompassed policies in such areas as macroeconomic stabilization, economic

  • opening with respect to both trade and investment, and the expansion of market

  • forces within the domestic economy. Subsequent to Williamson's use of the

  • terminology, and despite his emphatic opposition, the phrase Washington

  • Consensus has come to be used fairly widely in a second, broader sense, to

  • refer to a more general orientation towards a strongly market-based

  • approach. In emphasizing the magnitude of the difference between the two

  • alternative definitions, Williamson himself has argued that his ten

  • original, narrowly defined prescriptions have largely acquired the status of

  • "motherhood and apple pie", whereas the subsequent broader definition,

  • representing a form of neoliberal manifesto, "never enjoyed a consensus

  • [in Washington] or anywhere much else" and can reasonably be said to be dead.

  • Discussion of the Washington Consensus has long been contentious. Partly this

  • reflects a lack of agreement over what is meant by the term, in face of the

  • contrast between the broader and narrower definitions But there are also

  • substantive differences involved over the merits and consequences of the

  • various policy prescriptions involved. Some critics take issue, for example,

  • with the original Consensus's emphasis on the opening of developing countries

  • to global markets, and/or with what they see as an excessive focus on

  • strengthening the influence of domestic market forces, arguably at the expense

  • of key functions of the state. For other commentators the issue is more what is

  • missing, including such areas as institution-building and targeted

  • efforts to improve opportunities for the weakest in society. Despite these areas

  • of controversy, a number of developmental institutions and

  • economists would by now accept the more general proposition that strategies best

  • work if they are specifically designed to the certain circumstances of the

  • individual countries. History

  • = Original sense: Williamson's Ten Points =

  • The concept and name of the Washington Consensus were first presented in 1989

  • by John Williamson, an economist from the Institute for International

  • Economics, an international economic think tank based in Washington, D.C.

  • Williamson used the term to summarize commonly shared themes among policy

  • advice by Washington-based institutions at the time, such as the International

  • Monetary Fund, World Bank, and U.S. Treasury Department, which were believed

  • to be necessary for the recovery of countries in Latin America from the

  • economic and financial crises of the 1980s.

  • The consensus as originally stated by Williamson included ten broad sets of

  • relatively specific policy recommendations:

  • Fiscal policy discipline, with avoidance of large fiscal deficits relative to

  • GDP; Redirection of public spending from

  • subsidies toward broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor services

  • like primary education, primary health care and infrastructure investment;

  • Tax reform, broadening the tax base and adopting moderate marginal tax rates;

  • Interest rates that are market determined and positive in real terms;

  • Competitive exchange rates; Trade liberalization: liberalization of

  • imports, with particular emphasis on elimination of quantitative

  • restrictions; any trade protection to be provided by low and relatively uniform

  • tariffs; Liberalization of inward foreign direct

  • investment; Privatization of state enterprises;

  • Deregulation: abolition of regulations that impede market entry or restrict

  • competition, except for those justified on safety, environmental and consumer

  • protection grounds, and prudential oversight of financial institutions;

  • Legal security for property rights. = Origins of policy agenda =

  • Although Williamson's label of the Washington Consensus draws attention to

  • the role of the Washington-based agencies in promoting the above agenda,

  • a number of authors have stressed that Latin American policy-makers arrived at

  • their own packages of policy reforms primarily based on their own analysis of

  • their countries' situations. Thus, according to Joseph Stanislaw and Daniel

  • Yergin, authors of The Commanding Heights, the policy prescriptions

  • described in the Washington Consensus were "developed in Latin America, by

  • Latin Americans, in response to what was happening both within and outside the

  • region." Joseph Stiglitz has written that "the Washington Consensus policies

  • were designed to respond to the very real problems in Latin America and made

  • considerable sense". In view of the implication conveyed by the term

  • Washington Consensus that the policies were largely external in origin,

  • Stanislaw and Yergin report that the term's creator, John Williamson, has

  • "regretted the term ever since", stating "it is difficult to think of a less

  • diplomatic label." A 2010 paper by Nancy Birdsall, Augusto

  • de la Torre, and Felipe Valencia Caicedo likewise suggests that the policies in

  • the original consensus were largely a creation of Latin American politicians

  • and technocrats, with Williamson's role having been to gather the ten points in

  • one place for the first time, rather than to "create" the package of

  • policies. In Williamson's own words from 2002:

  • = Broad sense = Williamson recognizes that the term has

  • commonly been used with a different meaning from his original prescription;

  • he opposes the alternative use of the term, which became common after his

  • initial formulation, to cover a broader market fundamentalism or "neoliberal"

  • agenda. I of course never intended my term to

  • imply policies like capital account liberalization, monetarism, supply-side

  • economics, or a minimal state, which I think of as the quintessentially

  • neoliberal ideas. If that is how the term is interpreted, then we can all

  • enjoy its wake, although let us at least have the decency to recognize that these

  • ideas have rarely dominated thought in Washington and certainly never commanded

  • a consensus there or anywhere much else...

  • More specifically, Williamson argues that the first three of his ten

  • prescriptions are uncontroversial in the economic community, while recognizing

  • that the others have evoked some controversy. He argues that one of the

  • least controversial prescriptions, the redirection of spending to

  • infrastructure, health care, and education, has often been neglected. He

  • also argues that, while the prescriptions were focused on reducing

  • certain functions of government, they would also strengthen government's

  • ability to undertake other actions such as supporting education and health.

  • Williamson says that he does not endorse market fundamentalism, and believes that

  • the Consensus prescriptions, if implemented correctly, would benefit the

  • poor. In a book edited with Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski in 2003, Williamson laid out

  • an expanded reform agenda, emphasizing crisis-proofing of economies,

  • "second-generation" reforms, and policies addressing inequality and

  • social issues. As noted, in spite of Williamson's

  • reservations, the term Washington Consensus has been used more broadly to

  • describe the general shift towards free market policies that followed the

  • displacement of Keynesianism in the 1970s. In this broad sense the

  • Washington Consensus is sometimes considered to have begun at about 1980.

  • Many commentators see the consensus, especially if interpreted in the broader

  • sense of the term, as having been at its strongest during the 1990s. Some have

  • argued that the consensus in this sense ended at the turn of the century, or at

  • least that it became less influential after about the year 2000. More

  • commonly, commentators have suggested that the Consensus in its broader sense

  • survived until the time of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Following the

  • strong intervention undertaken by governments in response to market

  • failures, a number of journalists, politicians and senior officials from

  • global institutions such as the World Bank began saying that the Washington

  • Consensus was dead. These included former British Prime Minister Gordon

  • Brown, who following the 2009 G-20 London summit, declared "the old

  • Washington Consensus is over". Williamson was asked by The Washington

  • Post in April 2009 whether he agreed with Gordon Brown that the Washington

  • Consensus was dead. He responded: It depends on what one means by the

  • Washington Consensus. If one means the ten points that I tried to outline, then

  • clearly it's not right. If one uses the interpretation that a number of

  • peopleincluding Joe Stiglitz, most prominentlyhave foisted on it, that it

  • is a neoliberal tract, then I think it is right.

  • After the 2010 G-20 Seoul summit announced that it had achieved agreement

  • on a Seoul Development Consensus, the Financial Times editorialized that "Its

  • pragmatic and pluralistic view of development is appealing enough. But the

  • document will do little more than drive another nail into the coffin of a

  • long-deceased Washington consensus." Context

  • Many countries have endeavored to implement varying components of the

  • reform packages, with implementation sometimes imposed as a condition for

  • receiving loans from the IMF and World Bank. The results of these reforms are

  • much debated. Some critics focus on claims that the reforms led to

  • destabilization. Some critics have also blamed the Washington Consensus for

  • particular economic crises such as the Argentine economic crisis, and for

  • exacerbating Latin America's economic inequalities. Criticism of the

  • Washington Consensus has often been dismissed as socialism and/or

  • anti-globalism. While these philosophies do criticize these policies, general

  • criticism of the economics of the consensus is now more widely

  • established, such as that outlined by US scholar Dani Rodrik, Professor of

  • International Political Economy at Harvard University, in his paper Goodbye

  • Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion?.

  • The institutions that formed the consensus started softening their

  • insistence on these policies in the 2000s largely due to political pressures

  • surrounding globalization, but any reference of these ideas as a consensus

  • essentially ended in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, as market

  • fundamentalism lost favour. Though, it should be noted, that most of the core

  • specific policies are still generally regarded favourably, but the policies

  • have come to be viewed as not preventing nor alleviating acute economic crises.

  • This is perhaps most notable in the work of the IMF with South Korea to create a

  • new sort of intervention program to the one that South Korea was forced to

  • accept during the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s. That intervention,

  • which was heavily grounded in the Washington Consensus, was hailed at the

  • time for stopping the "Asian Contagion" but eventually the program came to be

  • seen more skeptically. Williamson himself has summarized the

  • overall results on growth, employment and poverty reduction in many countries

  • as "disappointing, to say the least". He attributes this limited impact to three

  • factors: the Consensus per se placed no special emphasis on mechanisms for

  • avoiding economic crises, which have proved very damaging; the reformsboth

  • those listed in his article and, a fortiori, those actually

  • implementedwere incomplete; and the reforms cited were insufficiently

  • ambitious with respect to targeting improvements in income distribution, and

  • need to be complemented by stronger efforts in this direction. Rather than

  • an argument for abandoning the original ten prescriptions, though, Williamson

  • concludes that they are "motherhood and apple pie" and "not worth debating".

  • Both Williamson and other analysts have pointed to longer term improvements in

  • economic performance in a number of countries that have adopted the relevant

  • policy changes consistently, such as Chile.

  • As Williamson himself has pointed out, the term has come to be used in a

  • broader sense to its original intention, as a synonym for market fundamentalism

  • or neo-liberalism. In this broader sense, Williamson states, it has been

  • criticized by people such as George Soros and Nobel Laureate Joseph E.

  • Stiglitz. The Washington Consensus is also criticized by others such as some

  • Latin American politicians and heterodox economists such as Erik Reinert. The

  • term has become associated with neoliberal policies in general and drawn

  • into the broader debate over the expanding role of the free market,

  • constraints upon the state, and the influence of the United States, and

  • globalization more broadly, on countries' national sovereignty.

  • "Stabilize, privatize, and liberalize" became the mantra of a generation of

  • technocrats who cut their teeth in the developing world and of the political

  • leaders they counseled. While opinion varies among economists,

  • Rodrik pointed out what he claimed was a factual paradox: while China and India

  • increased their economies' reliance on free market forces to a limited extent,

  • their general economic policies remained the exact opposite to the Washington

  • Consensus' main recommendations. Both had high levels of protectionism, no

  • privatization, extensive industrial policies planning, and lax fiscal and

  • financial policies through the 1990s. Had they been dismal failures they would

  • have presented strong evidence in support of the recommended Washington

  • Consensus policies. However they turned out to be successes. According to

  • Rodrik: "While the lessons drawn by proponents and skeptics differ, it is

  • fair to say that nobody really believes in the Washington Consensus anymore. The

  • question now is not whether the Washington Consensus is dead or alive;

  • it is what will replace it". Rodrik's account of Chinese or Indian

  • policies during the period is not universally accepted. Among other things

  • those policies involved major turns in the direction of greater reliance upon

  • market forces, both domestically and internationally.

  • In a book edited with Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in 2003, John Williamson laid

  • out an expanded reform agenda, emphasizing crisis-proofing of

  • economies, "second-generation" reforms, and policies addressing inequality and

  • social issues. Macroeconomic adjustment

  • The widespread adoption by governments of the Washington Consensus was to a

  • large degree a reaction to the macroeconomic crisis that hit much of

  • Latin America, and some other developing regions, during the 1980s. The crisis

  • had multiple origins: the drastic rise in the price of imported oil following

  • the emergence of OPEC, mounting levels of external debt, the rise in US

  • interest rates, andconsequent to the foregoing problemsloss of access to

  • additional foreign credit. The import-substitution policies that had

  • been pursued by many developing country governments in Latin America and

  • elsewhere for several decades had left their economies ill-equipped to expand

  • exports at all quickly to pay for the additional cost of imported oil. Unable

  • either to expand external borrowing further or to ramp up export earnings

  • easily, many Latin American countries faced no obvious sustainable

  • alternatives to reducing overall domestic demand via greater fiscal

  • discipline, while in parallel adopting policies to reduce protectionism and

  • increase their economies' export orientation.

  • Trade liberalization The Washington Consensus, as framed by

  • Williamson, envisaged a largely unilateral process of trade reform, by

  • which countries would lower their non-tariff and tariff barriers to

  • imports. Many countries, including the majority of those in Latin America, have

  • indeed undertaken significant unilateral trade liberalization over subsequent

  • years, opening their economies to greater import competition while

  • simultaneously increasing the share of exports in their GDP.

  • A separate agendaonly tangentially related to the Washington Consensus as

  • framed by Williamsonconcerns various programs for multilateral trade

  • liberalization, whether at the global or regional level, including the North

  • American Free Trade Agreement and DR-CAFTA agreements.

  • Criticism Most criticism has been focused on trade

  • liberalization and the elimination of subsidies, and criticism has been

  • particularly strident in the agriculture sector. In nations with substantial

  • natural resources, though, criticism has tended to focus on privatization of

  • industries exploiting these resources. As of 2010, several Latin American

  • countries were led by socialist or other left wing governments, some of

  • whichincluding Argentina and Venezuelahave campaigned for policies

  • contrary to the Washington Consensus policies. Other Latin American countries

  • with governments of the left, including Brazil, Chile and Peru, in practice

  • adopted the bulk of the policies included in Williamson's list, even

  • though they criticized the market fundamentalism that these are often

  • associated with. Also critical of the policies as actually promoted by the IMF

  • have been some US economists, such as Joseph Stiglitz and Dani Rodrik, who

  • have challenged what are sometimes described as the 'fundamentalist'

  • policies of the IMF and the US Treasury for what Stiglitz calls a 'one size fits

  • all' treatment of individual economies. According to Stiglitz the treatment

  • suggested by the IMF is too simple: one dose, and faststabilize, liberalize and

  • privatize, without prioritizing or watching for side effects.

  • The reforms did not always work out the way they were intended. While growth

  • generally improved across much of Latin America, it was in most countries less

  • than the reformers had originally hoped for. Success stories in Sub-Saharan

  • Africa during the 1990s were relatively few and far in between, and

  • market-oriented reforms by themselves offered no formula to deal with the

  • growing public health emergency in which the continent became embroiled. The

  • critics, meanwhile, argue that the disappointing outcomes have vindicated

  • their concerns about the inappropriateness of the standard reform

  • agenda. Besides the excessive belief in market

  • fundamentalism and international economic institutions in attributing the

  • failure of the Washington consensus, Stiglitz provided a further explanation

  • about why it failed. In his article "The Post Washington Consensus Consensus", he

  • claims that the Washington consensus policies failed to efficiently handle

  • the economic structures within developing countries. The cases of East

  • Asian countries such as Korea and Taiwan are known as a success story in which

  • their remarkable economic growth was attributed to a larger role of the

  • government by undertaking industrial policies and increasing domestic savings

  • within their territory. From the cases, the role for government was proven to be

  • critical at the beginning stage of the dynamic process of development, at least

  • until the markets by themselves can produce efficient outcomes.

  • The policies pursued by the international financial institutions

  • which came to be called the Washington consensus policies or neoliberalism

  • entailed a much more circumscribed role for the state than were embraced by most

  • of the East Asian countries, a set of policies which came to be called the

  • development state. The critique laid out in the World

  • Bank's study Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform

  • shows how far discussion has come from the original ideas of the Washington

  • Consensus. Gobind Nankani, a former vice-president for Africa at the World

  • Bank, wrote in the preface: "there is no unique universal set of rules.... [W]e

  • need to get away from formulae and the search for elusive 'best

  • practices'....". The World Bank's new emphasis is on the need for humility,

  • for policy diversity, for selective and modest reforms, and for experimentation.

  • The World Bank's report Learning from Reform shows some of the developments of

  • the 1990s. There was a deep and prolonged collapse in output in some

  • countries making the transition from communism to market economies. More than

  • a decade into the transition, some of the former communist countries,

  • especially parts of the former Soviet Union, had still not caught up to their

  • 1990 levels of output. Many Sub-Saharan African's economies failed to take off

  • during the 1990s, in spite of efforts at policy reform, changes in the political

  • and external environments, and continued heavy influx of foreign aid. Uganda,

  • Tanzania, and Mozambique were among countries that showed some success, but

  • they remained fragile. There were several successive and painful financial

  • crises in Latin America, East Asia, Russia, and Turkey. The Latin American

  • recovery in the first half of the 1990s was interrupted by crises later in the

  • decade. There was less growth in per capita GDP in Latin America than in the

  • period of rapid post-War expansion and opening in the world economy, 1950-80.

  • Argentina, described by some as "the poster boy of the Latin American

  • economic revolution", came crashing down in 2002.

  • Among other results of the recent global financial crisis has been a

  • strengthening of belief in the importance of local development models

  • as more suitable than programmatic approaches. Some elements of this school

  • of thought were summarized in the idea of a "Beijing Consensus" which suggested

  • that nations needed to find their own paths to development and reform.

  • = Anti-globalization movement = Many critics of trade liberalization,

  • such as Noam Chomsky, Tariq Ali, Susan George, and Naomi Klein, see the

  • Washington Consensus as a way to open the labor market of underdeveloped

  • economies to exploitation by companies from more developed economies. The

  • prescribed reductions in tariffs and other trade barriers allow the free

  • movement of goods across borders according to market forces, but labor is

  • not permitted to move freely due to the requirements of a visa or a work permit.

  • This creates an economic climate where goods are manufactured using cheap labor

  • in underdeveloped economies and then exported to rich First World economies

  • for sale at what the critics argue are huge markups, with the balance of the

  • markup said to accrue to large multinational corporations. The

  • criticism is that workers in the Third World economy nevertheless remain poor,

  • as any pay raises they may have received over what they made before trade

  • liberalization are said to be offset by inflation, whereas workers in the First

  • World country become unemployed, while the wealthy owners of the multinational

  • grow even more wealthy. Anti-globalism critics further claim

  • that First World countries impose what the critics describe as the consensus's

  • neoliberal policies on economically vulnerable countries through

  • organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and by

  • political pressure and bribery. They argue that the Washington Consensus has

  • not, in fact, led to any great economic boom in Latin America, but rather to

  • severe economic crises and the accumulation of crippling external debts

  • that render the target country beholden to the First World.

  • Many of the policy prescriptions are criticized as mechanisms for ensuring

  • the development of a small, wealthy, indigenous elite in the Third World who

  • will rise to political power and also have a vested interest in maintaining

  • the local status quo of labor exploitation.

  • Some specific factual premises of the critique as phrased above are not

  • accepted by defenders, or indeed all critics, of the Washington Consensus. To

  • take a few examples, inflation in many developing countries is now at its

  • lowest levels for many decades. Workers in some factories created by foreign

  • investment are found typically to receive higher wages and better working

  • conditions than exist in many of their own countries' domestically owned

  • workplaces. Economic growth in much of Latin America in the last few years has

  • been at historically high rates, and debt levels, relative to the size of

  • these economies, are on average significantly lower than they were

  • several years ago. Despite these macroeconomic advances,

  • poverty and inequality remain at high levels in Latin America. About one of

  • every three people—165 million in totalstill live on less than $2 a day.

  • Roughly a third of the population has no access to electricity or basic

  • sanitation, and an estimated 10 million children suffer from malnutrition. These

  • problems are not, however, new: Latin America was the most economically

  • unequal region in the world in 1950, and has continued to be so ever since,

  • during periods both of state-directed import-substitution and of

  • market-oriented liberalization. Some socialist political leaders in

  • Latin America are vocal and well-known critics of the Washington Consensus,

  • such as the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, Cuban ex-President Fidel

  • Castro, Bolivian President Evo Morales, and Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador.

  • In Argentina, too, the recent Justicialist Party government ofstor

  • Kirchner and his spouse who succeeded him undertook policy measures which

  • represented a repudiation of at least some Consensus policies. With the

  • exception of Castro, these leaders have maintained and expanded some successful

  • policies commonly associated with the Washington Consensus, such as

  • macroeconomic stability and property rights protection. But many have also

  • proposed and implemented policies directly opposed to the Washington

  • Consensus: under Chavez, for example, Venezuela partially nationalized the

  • state-run oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A, and with the help of the

  • company's assets developed several social programs to help the country's

  • poor. These programs have been credited with the dramatic improvement in quality

  • of life during Chavez's presidency: the poverty rate dropped from 48.6% in 2002

  • to 29.5% in 2011, while access to education and healthcare was

  • significantly increased. Others on the Latin American left take a

  • different approach. Governments led by the Socialist Party of Chile, by Alan

  • García in Peru, by Tabaré Vázquez in Uruguay, and by Luiz Inácio Lula da

  • Silva in Brazil, have in practise maintained a high degree of continuity

  • with the economic policies described under the Washington Consensus. But

  • governments of this type have simultaneously sought to supplement

  • these policies by measures directly targeted at improving productivity and

  • helping the poor, such as education reforms and subsidies to poor families

  • conditioned on their children staying in school.

  • = Neo-Keynesian criticisms = Neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian critics

  • of the Consensus [citation needed] have argued that the underlying policies were

  • incorrectly laid down and are too rigid to be able to succeed. For example,

  • flexible labor laws were supposed to create new jobs, but economic evidence

  • from Latin America is inconclusive on this point. In addition, some argue that

  • the package of policies does not take into account economic and cultural

  • differences between countries. Some critics have argued that this set of

  • policies should be implemented, if at all, during a period of rapid economic

  • growth and notas often is the caseduring an economic crisis.

  • Moisés Naím, chief editor of Foreign Policy, has made the argument that there

  • was no 'consensus' in the first place. He has argued that there are and have

  • been major differences between economists over what is the 'correct

  • economic policy', hence the idea of there being a consensus was also flawed.

  • = Proponents of the "European model" and the "Asian way" =

  • Some European and Asian economists suggest that "infrastructure-savvy

  • economies" such as Norway, Singapore, and China have partially rejected the

  • underlying Neoclassical "financial orthodoxy" that characterizes the

  • Washington Consensus, instead initiating a pragmatist development path of their

  • own based on sustained, large-scale, government-funded investments in

  • strategic infrastructure projects: "Successful countries such as Singapore,

  • Indonesia, and South Korea still remember the harsh adjustment mechanisms

  • imposed abruptly upon them by the IMF and World Bank during the 1997-1998

  • 'Asian Crisis' […] What they have achieved in the past 10 years is all the

  • more remarkable: they have quietly abandoned the Washington Consensus by

  • investing massively in infrastructure projects […] this pragmatic approach

  • proved to be very successful". While China invested roughly 9% of its

  • GDP on infrastructure in the 1990s and 2000s, most Western and non-Asian

  • emerging economies invested only 2% to 4% of their GDP in infrastructure

  • assets. This considerable investment gap allowed the Chinese economy to grow at

  • near-optimal conditions while many South American, South Asian, and African

  • economies suffered from various development bottlenecks like poor

  • transportation networks, aging power grids, and mediocre schools.

  • Argentina The Argentine economic crisis of

  • 1999–2002 is often held out as an example of the economic devastation said

  • by some to have been wrought by application of the Washington Consensus.

  • Argentina's former Deputy Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana, in an interview

  • with the state news agencylam on August 16, 2005, attacked the Washington

  • Consensus. There never was a real consensus for such policies, he said,

  • and today "a good number of governments of the hemisphere are reviewing the

  • assumptions with which they applied those policies in the 1990s", adding

  • that governments are looking for a development model to guarantee

  • productive employment and the generation of real wealth.

  • Many economists, however, challenge the view that Argentina's failure can be

  • attributed to close adherence to the Washington Consensus. The country's

  • adoption of an idiosyncratic fixed exchange rate regime, which became

  • increasingly uncompetitive, together with its failure to achieve effective

  • control over its fiscal accounts, both ran counter to central provisions of the

  • Consensus, and paved the way directly for the ultimate macroeconomic collapse.

  • The market-oriented policies of the early Menem-Cavallo years, meanwhile,

  • soon petered out in the face of domestic political constraints.

  • In October 1998 the IMF invited Argentine President Carlos Menem, to

  • talk about the successful Argentine experience, at the Annual Meeting of the

  • Board of Governors. President Menem's Minister of Economy, Domingo Cavallo,

  • the architect of the Menem administration's economic policies,

  • specifically including "convertibility", made the claim that Argentina was at

  • that moment, "considered as the best pupil of the IMF, the World Bank and the

  • USA government": On the second semester of 1998 Argentina

  • was considered in Washington the most successful economy among the ones that

  • had restructured its debt within the Brady's Plan framework. None of the

  • Washington Consensus' sponsors were interested in pointing out that the

  • Argentine economic reforms had differences with its 10 recommendations.

  • On the contrary, Argentina was considered the best pupil of the IMF,

  • the World Bank and the USA government. The problems which arise with reliance

  • on a fixed exchange rate mechanism are discussed in the World Bank report

  • Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform, which questions

  • whether expectations can be "positively affected by tying a government's hands".

  • In the early 1990s there was a point of view that countries should move to

  • either fixed or completely flexible exchange rates to reassure market

  • participants of the complete removal of government discretion in foreign

  • exchange matters. After the Argentina collapse, some observers believe that

  • removing government discretion by creating mechanisms that impose large

  • penalties may, on the contrary, actually itself undermine expectations. Velasco

  • and Neut "argue that if the world is uncertain and there are situations in

  • which the lack of discretion will cause large losses, a pre-commitment device

  • can actually make things worse". In chapter 7 of its report the World Bank

  • analyses what went wrong in Argentina, summarizes the lessons from the

  • experience, and draws suggestions for its future policy.

  • The IMF's Independent Evaluation Office has issued a review of the lessons of

  • Argentina for the institution, summarized in the following quotation:

  • The Argentine crisis yields a number of lessons for the IMF, some of which have

  • already been learned and incorporated into revised policies and procedures.

  • This evaluation suggests ten lessons, in the areas of surveillance and program

  • design, crisis management, and the decision-making process.

  • Mark Weisbrot says that, in more recent years, Argentina under former President

  • stor Kirchner made a break with the Consensus and that this led to a

  • significant improvement in its economy; some add that Ecuador may soon follow

  • suit. However, while Kirchner's reliance on price controls and similar

  • administrative measures clearly ran counter to the spirit of the Consensus,

  • his administration in fact ran an extremely tight fiscal ship and

  • maintained a highly competitive floating exchange rate; Argentina's immediate

  • bounce-back from crisis, further aided by abrogating its debts and a fortuitous

  • boom in prices of primary commodities, leaves open issues of longer-term

  • sustainability. The Economist has argued that thestor Kirchner administration

  • will end up as one more in Argentina's long history of populist governments. In

  • October 2008, Kirchner's wife and successor as President, Cristina

  • Kirchner, announced her government's intention to nationalize pension funds

  • from the privatized system implemented by Menem-Cavallo. Accusations have

  • emerged of the manipulation of official statistics under the Kirchners to create

  • an inaccurately positive picture of economic performance. The Economist

  • removed Argentina's inflation measure from its official indicators, saying

  • that they were no longer reliable. In 2003, Argentina's and Brazil's

  • presidents, Néstor Kirchner and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed the "Buenos

  • Aires Consensus", a manifesto opposing the Washington Consensus' policies.

  • Skeptical political observers note, however, that Lula's rhetoric on such

  • public occasions should be distinguished from the policies actually implemented

  • by his administration. This said, Lula da Silva paid the whole of Brazil's debt

  • with the IMF two years in advance, freeing his government from IMF

  • tutelage, as didstor Kirchner's government in 2005.

  • Subsidies for agriculture The Washington Consensus as formulated

  • by Williamson includes provision for the redirection of public spending from

  • subsidies toward broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor services

  • like primary education, primary health care and infrastructure investment. This

  • definition leaves some room for debate over specific public spending programs.

  • One area of public controversy has focused on the issues of subsidies to

  • farmers for fertilizers and other modern farm inputs: on the one hand, these can

  • be criticized as subsidies, on the other, it may be argued that they

  • generate positive externalities that might justify the subsidy involved.

  • Some critics of the Washington Consensus cite Malawi's experience with

  • agricultural subsidies, for example, as exemplifying perceived flaws in the

  • package's prescriptions. For decades, the World Bank and donor nations pressed

  • Malawi, a predominantly rural country in Africa, to cut back or eliminate

  • government fertilizer subsidies to farmers. World Bank experts also urged

  • the country to have Malawi farmers shift to growing cash crops for export and to

  • use foreign exchange earnings to import food. For years, Malawi hovered on the

  • brink of famine; after a particularly disastrous corn harvest in 2005, almost

  • five million of its 13 million people needed emergency food aid. Malawi's

  • newly elected president Bingu wa Mutharika then decided to reverse

  • policy. Introduction of deep fertilizer subsidies, abetted by good rains, helped

  • farmers produce record-breaking corn harvests in 2006 and 2007; according to

  • government reports, corn production leapt from 1.2 million metric tons in

  • 2005 to 2.7 million in 2006 and 3.4 million in 2007. The prevalence of acute

  • child hunger has fallen sharply and Malawi recently turned away emergency

  • food aid. In a commentary on the Malawi experience

  • prepared for the Center for Global Development, development economists

  • Vijaya Ramachandran and Peter Timmer argue that fertilizer subsidies in parts

  • of Africa can have benefits that substantially exceed their costs. They

  • caution, however, that how the subsidy is operated is crucial to its long-term

  • success, and warn against allowing fertilizer distribution to become a

  • monopoly. Ramachandran and Timmer also stress that African farmers need more

  • than just input subsidiesthey need better research to develop new inputs

  • and new seeds, as well as better transport and energy infrastructure. The

  • World Bank reportedly now sometimes supports the temporary use of fertilizer

  • subsidies aimed at the poor and carried out in a way that fosters private

  • markets: "In Malawi, Bank officials say they generally support Malawi's policy,

  • though they criticize the government for not having a strategy to eventually end

  • the subsidies, question whether its 2007 corn production estimates are inflated

  • and say there is still a lot of room for improvement in how the subsidy is

  • carried out". Continuing controversy

  • Most Latin American countries continue to struggle with high poverty and

  • underemployment. Chile has been offered as an example of a Consensus success

  • story, and countries such as El Salvador and Panama have also shown some positive

  • signs of economic development. Brazil, despite relatively modest rates of

  • aggregate growth, has seen important progress in recent years in the

  • reduction of poverty. This is counterweight, since the last two

  • Brazilian socialist presidents have adjusted modest socialist reforms.

  • Joseph Stiglitz has argued that the Chilean success story owes a lot to

  • state ownership of key industries, particularly its copper industry, and

  • currency interventions stabilizing capital flows. Many other economists,

  • though, argue that Chile's economic success is largely due to its

  • combination of sound macroeconomics and market-oriented policies.

  • There have been claims of discrepancies between the Washington Consensus as

  • propounded by Williamson, and the policies actually implemented with the

  • endorsement of the Washington institutions themselves. For example,

  • the Washington Consensus stated a need for investment in education, but the

  • policies of fiscal discipline promoted by the International Monetary Fund have

  • sometimes in practice led countries to cut back public spending on social

  • programs, including such areas as basic education. Those familiar with the work

  • of the IMF respond that, at a certain stage, countries near bankruptcy have to

  • cut back their public spending one way or another to live within their means.

  • Washington may argue for enlightened choices among different public spending

  • priorities, but in the last analysis it is domestically elected political

  • leaders who ultimately have to make the tough political choices.

  • Missing elements A significant body of economists and

  • policy-makers argues that what was wrong with the Washington Consensus as

  • originally formulated by Williamson had less to do with what was included than

  • with what was missing. This view asserts that countries such as Brazil, Chile,

  • Peru and Uruguay, largely governed by parties of the left in recent years, did

  • notwhatever their rhetoricin practice abandon most of the substantive elements

  • of the Consensus. Countries that have achieved macroeconomic stability through

  • fiscal and monetary discipline have been loath to abandon it: Lula, the former

  • President of Brazil, has stated explicitly that the defeat of

  • hyperinflation was among the most important positive contributions of the

  • years of his presidency to the welfare of the country's poor, although the

  • remaining influence of his policies on tackling poverty and maintaining a

  • steady low rate of inflation are being discussed and doubted in the wake of the

  • Brazilian Economic Crisis currently occurring in Brazil.

  • These economists and policy-makers would, however, overwhelmingly agree

  • that the Washington Consensus was incomplete, and that countries in Latin

  • America and elsewhere need to move beyond "first generation" macroeconomic

  • and trade reforms to a stronger focus on productivity-boosting reforms and direct

  • programs to support the poor. This includes improving the investment

  • climate and eliminating red tape, strengthening institutions, fighting

  • poverty directly via the types of Conditional Cash Transfer programs

  • adopted by countries like Mexico and Brazil, improving the quality of primary

  • and secondary education, boosting countries' effectiveness at developing

  • and absorbing technology, and addressing the special needs of historically

  • disadvantaged groups including indigenous peoples and Afro-descendant

  • populations across Latin America. Alternative usage vis-a-vis foreign

  • policy In early 2008, the term "Washington

  • Consensus" was used in a different sense as a metric for analyzing American

  • mainstream media coverage of U.S. foreign policy generally and Middle East

  • policy specifically. Marda Dunsky writes, "Time and again, with

  • exceedingly rare exceptions, the media repeat without question, and fail to

  • challenge the "Washington consensus"—the official mind-set of US governments on

  • Middle East peacemaking over time." According to syndicated columnist

  • William Pfaff, Beltway centrism in American mainstream media coverage of

  • foreign affairs is the rule rather than the exception: "Coverage of

  • international affairs in the US is almost entirely Washington-driven. That

  • is, the questions asked about foreign affairs are Washington's questions,

  • framed in terms of domestic politics and established policy positions. This

  • invites uninformative answers and discourages unwanted or unpleasant

  • views." Like the economic discussion above the foreign policy usage of the

  • term has less to do with what is included than with what is missing.

  • A similar view, though by a different name, is taken by Fairness & Accuracy In

  • Reporting, a progressive media criticism organization. They note "Official

  • Agendas" as one of nine 'issue areas' they view as causing 'What's Wrong With

  • the News?" They note: "Despite the claims that the press has an adversarial

  • relationship with the government, in truth U.S. media generally follow

  • Washington's official line. This is particularly obvious in wartime and in

  • foreign policy coverage, but even with domestic controversies, the spectrum of

  • debate usually falls in the relatively narrow range between the leadership of

  • the Democratic and Republican parties." See also

  • References Sources

  • = Primary sources = Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan

  • Africa: An Agenda for Action, Eliot Berg, coord.,.

  • After the Washington Consensus: Restarting Growth and Reform in Latin

  • America, Kuczynski, Pedro-Paul, and John Williamson, eds., Washington, D.C.,

  • Institute for International Economics, 2003.

  • The Spirit of Democratic Capitalism, by Michael Novak.

  • El Otro Sendero, by Hernando de Soto. Toward Renewed Economic Growth in Latin

  • America, by Bela Balassa, Gerardo M. Bueno, Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, and Mario

  • Henrique. Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has

  • Happened, edited by John Williamson. The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin

  • America, edited by Rudiger Dornbusch and Sebastian Edwards.

  • Global Linkages: Macroeconomic Interdependence and Cooperation in the

  • World Economy, by Jeffrey Sachs and Warwick McKibbin.

  • World Development Report 1991: The Challenge of Development, by Lawrence

  • Summers, Vinod Thomas, et al.. "Development and the "Washington

  • Consensus"", in World Development Vol 21:1329–1336 by John Williamson.

  • "Recent Lessons of Development", Lawrence H. Summers & Vinod Thomas.

  • Latin America's Journey to the Market: From Macroeconomic Shocks to

  • Institutional Therapy, by Moises Naím. Economistas y Politicos: La Política de

  • la Reforma Económica, by Agustín Fallas-Santana.

  • The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered, by George Soros.

  • Beyond Tradeoffs: Market Reform and Equitable Growth in Latin America,

  • edited by Nancy Birdsall, Carol Graham, and Richard Sabot.

  • The Third Way: Toward a Renewal of Social Democracy, by Anthony Giddens.

  • The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, by Thomas

  • Friedman. "Fads and Fashion in Economic Reforms:

  • Washington Consensus or Washington Confusion?", by Moisés Naím.

  • Washington Contentious: Economic Policies for Social Equity in Latin

  • America, by Nancy Birdsall and Augusto de la Torre

  • "Did the Washington Consensus Fail?", by John Williamson.

  • After the Washington Consensus, edited by Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski and John

  • Williamson. Implementing Economic Reforms in Mexico:

  • The Washington Consensus as a Roadmap for Developing Countries by Terrence

  • Fluharty ps:digital.library.txstate.edu10877/3488

  • = Secondary sources = Dani Rodrik - Goodbye Washington

  • Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? Harvard University, January 2006

  • Yergin, Daniel; Stanislaw, Joseph. The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the

  • World Economy. New York City: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 9780743229630. Retrieved

  • 3 July 2015. The contentious Washington Consensus:

  • reforming the reforms in emerging markets. by Carlos Santiso. Review of

  • International Political Economy 11(4). Stability with Growth: Macroeconomics,

  • Liberalization, and Development ; by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Jose Antonio Ocampo,

  • Shari Spiegel, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, and Deepak Nayyar; Oxford University

  • Press 2006 Economic Crisis and Policy Choice: The

  • Politics of Adjustment in the Third World, edited by Joan M. Nelson.

  • Latin American Political Economy in the Age of Neoliberal Reform and Democracy,

  • Markets, and Structural Reform in Latin America, edited by William C. Smith,

  • Carlos H. Acuña, and Eduardo A. Gamarra. Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From

  • Despair to Hope, by Sebastian Edwards. Politics, Social Change, and Economic

  • Restructuring in Latin America, by William C. Smith and Roberto Patricio

  • Korzeniewicz. Fault Lines of Democracy in

  • Post-Transition Latin America, Felipe Agüero and Jeffrey Stark.

  • What Kind of Democracy? What Kind of Market? Latin America in the Age of

  • Neoliberalism, by Philip D. Oxhorn and Graciela Ducatenzeiler.

  • Latin America Transformed: Globalization and Modernity, by Robert N. Gwynne and

  • Cristóbal Kay. The Internationalization of Palace Wars:

  • Lawyers, Economists, and the Contest to Transform Latin American States, by Yves

  • Dezalay and Bryant G. Garth. From the "Washington" towards a "Vienna

  • Consensus"? A quantitative analysis on globalization, development and global

  • governance, by Arno Tausch and Christian Ghymers, Nova Science Publishers,

  • Hauppauge, New York, 2006 FONDAD: Diversity in Development:

  • Reconsidering the Washington Consensus, edited by Jan Joost Teunissen and Age

  • Akkerman. The Washington Consensus as Policy

  • Prescription for Development What Should the World Bank Think about

  • the Washington Consensus?, by John Williamson.

  • Fabian Global Forum for Progressive Global Politics: The Washington

  • Consensus, by Adam Lent. The Economics of Empire - Notes on the

  • Washington Consensus, by William Finnegan.

  • Unraveling the Washington Consensus, An Interview with Joseph Stiglitz

  • The Scorecard on Development, 1960-2010: Closing the Gap? - Center for Economic

  • and Policy Research report, April 2011 Developing Brazil: overcoming the

  • failure of the Washington consensus/ Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira/ Lynne

  • Rienner Publishers,2009 External links

  • Center for International Development at Harvard University describing the

  • Washington Consensus Cited links to the above article

  • Beyond the Washington Consensus by Jeremy Clift

The Washington Consensus is a set of 10 economic policy prescriptions considered

字幕與單字

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋

B1 中級 英國腔

華盛頓共識 (Washington Consensus)

  • 179 11
    Ying Sun 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字