analysis of Westeros. I scoured the pages of the first 5 books to find clues about

維斯洛特的經濟狀況分析。我翻遍了前五本小說來找關於七大王國的

the financial situation in the seven kingdoms. Here's what I found...

財務狀況的蛛絲馬跡。以下是我的發現...

First of all: The Iron Throne really needs to get its finances in order. The crown has

首先，鐵王座真的很需要在財政上取得平衡。王室不斷

been spending and accumulating debt. Unfortunately, none of this spending has been invested in

在進行開支導致債台高築。不幸的是，這些開支並沒有正確投資在

long-term growth. The throne spends on lavish parties and jousting competitions. And has

遠見的成長上，君王反而將其花費在華麗的派對和刺槍比賽上

ongoing expenses due to the war of the five kings. In book one Ned Stark says the mad king left

以及因應五位王者的爭戰的戰爭開支。在第一本小說中，奈德‧史塔克說瘋王讓

the treasury flowing with gold. And Littlefinger has managed to increase revenue tenfold during

國庫充斥著黃金，而小指頭有意在他還是財政大臣之時

his time as Master of Coin… Yet somehow the crown is over 6 million golden dragons

增加十倍的收益... 然而不知怎麼的王室的債已超過6百萬龍幣

in debt. It owes 3 million dragons to the Lannister house, 2 million to the Iron Bank

其中欠了蘭尼斯特家族3百萬龍幣、布拉佛斯的鐵金庫2百萬

of Braavos, the most powerful bank in the known world, and another million to the church

，全世界最知名最具權力的金庫，以及七教堂另外

of the seven. The crown’s sizeable income barely covers the interest on its debt. And

一百萬。王室相當大部分的收入仍不足以抵銷債務

Cersei has already suspended payments to the bank and the church. It seems to me the Lannister's

瑟曦便早已停止對財庫和教堂的支付，在我看來蘭尼斯特需要

are going to need a new motto... Based on the unsustainable debt dynamics of

一個新的格言了... 基於鐵王座難以應付的債務

the Iron Throne it seems the probability default is high… which means the Iron Bank is no

看來欠拖的可能性相當高... 也就是說鐵金庫

doubt getting restless. But if Tommen wants to stay on the throne

無法得到平靜。但如果托曼仍想坐穩寶座，

or rather if Cersei plans to keep him there he going to have to keep fighting for it,

或是瑟曦計畫要讓他留在上頭，他必須不斷與之纏鬥，

which is going to be expensive. Since more debt isn't an option, the throne has increased taxes.

那卻需要一筆相當的開支。正因為欠更多的債不是個好選擇，君王開始增稅

The crown has imposed a tax on the tens of thousands fleeing to King’s Landing. Tywin

王室強加了好幾萬的稅賦到君臨

even levied a tax on the brothels. The other option is printing money. Which

泰溫甚至向妓院收稅。另外一個選擇是列印鈔票

is difficult with a commodity-based currency. But there is some speculation, based on a

但就難在日常間的通用性。但從小說第二和三本一些文行間

few pointed lines in books 2 and 3, that Littlefinger was printing more coins by diluting the amount

能看出一些端倪，像是小指頭製造出更多的硬幣

of gold in each. Though these statements could be attributed to Little Finger's incredible

來貶低黃金的價值。雖然這些作為要歸功於小指頭

business acumen. But there are two sides of every dragon

精明的商業頭腦，但凡事總有一體兩面...

coin… Debt isn't so bad if the economy is growing… But there isn't any good news here.

當經濟有所成長，債務的壓力就不會太嚴重... 不過沒有事情是一帆風順的

Government spending can sometimes lead to growth... If the gold is spent on infrastructure,

政府的支出有時也會帶來經濟成長... 如果是用在基礎建設、

capital investment and public goods. That was not the case. The iron throne went into

資本投資以及公共利益的話，但並非如此，鐵王座卻將金錢

massive debt throwing parties and fighting a civil war.

花費在派對以及中世紀的戰爭形成龐大債務

The Westeros economy is based on agriculture. And has little by way of international trade.

維斯特洛的經濟是建立在農業上的 ，國際貿易只佔一小部分

The people of Westeros reap what they sow, which has been less and less lately. And ever

維斯特洛的人民以此獲得的利益，近來卻越來越微薄

since "The Mountain" ravaged the riverlands - Farmers have fled, fields have burned, and

自從「魔山」將河地蹂躪的一番。農夫紛紛奔逃、田地被燒毀殆盡，還有

equipment has been destroyed. And the fertile lands of The Reach has been cut off from King’s

設備被破壞。封地中肥沃的土地都被君臨剝奪而去

Landing. NOT TO MENTION WINTER IS COMING… And though

"更別說冬天即將到來"...... 然而

most of us are too young to remember the last winter, I think it's safe to say that it

我們都太年輕很難記得上一次的嚴酷的寒冬，我覺得可以說是

will make farming EXTREMELY difficult. So all signs point to financial instability

讓耕種變得"極度"的困難。因此所有的跡象指出了財政的不穩定性

and negative economic growth. We've already seen food prices increase

以及經濟的負向成長。我們已經可以看到在君臨

in King's Landing. With winter ahead and expectations of even less supply, food prices

物價高漲了。當寒冬在即，將預期供給會下降、

will continue to rise. However, expect the price of services to fall,

物價會持續的升高。然而，假設供給下降

unemployment is high. I suspect that the supply of prostitutes is on the rise. And discretionary

失業率升高，我猜測妓院的供給量會上升。任意的

spending has evaporated for most of the kingdom. Which means that the price of some companionship

支出都讓國庫的錢財蒸發。也就是說去擁有另一半的價格

will go down. There's only one positive that I can see coming

會上升。這是唯一我覺得在此亂象中可以看出的

out of this mess. The Lannisters will likely lose much of their wealth and power.

好事。蘭尼斯特家族看似會失去許多的財富和權力

The Iron Bank of Braavos is known for getting its due. They aren’t going to simply write

布拉佛斯的鐵金庫以得到相對報酬為名，他們絕對不會對

off the debt of the Iron Throne. They will step in and support someone else to take over

鐵王座的債務輕描淡寫過去，他們會介入並擁戴另外的

the throne provided the usurper promises to honor the outstanding debt to the Bank. This

王座篡位者，確保他會兌現還錢積欠的債務給金庫的承諾

is doubly bad for the Lannisters. Not only would they lose control of the Iron Throne,

這對蘭尼斯特家族來說是加倍的傷害。他們不只會失去對鐵王座的控制權

but the throne owes the Lannisters millions of golden dragons--a debt which is unlikely

鐵王座還積欠了蘭尼斯特百萬龍幣的債，讓任何強行奪走

to be honored if someone else takes the throne by force.

王座的人都不會履行的天大的債務

So at least something good will come out of the impending crisis of Westeros: House Lannister

所以說至少在維斯特洛迫切的危機中會有所轉機：蘭尼斯特家族

will be hit harder than anyone which will make winter a little bit warmer for the rest

將會比任何人都嚴重的被痛打一番，讓這寒冬對我們其他人都變得溫暖

of us.

一些