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  • The conventional wisdom about our world today

    譯者: Nan Liu 審譯者: Yi-Fan Yu

  • is that this is a time of terrible decline.

    傳統老一輩對世界的看法

  • And that's not surprising, given the bad news all around us,

    認為現在是一個 相當墮落的年代。

  • from ISIS to inequality,

    看看我們身邊的壞消息, 會有這種看法並不讓人吃驚,

  • political dysfunction, climate change,

    從 ISIS 恐怖組織到社會不公、

  • Brexit, and on and on.

    政治無能、氣候變化、

  • But here's the thing, and this may sound a little weird.

    英國退出歐盟,等等。

  • I actually don't buy this gloomy narrative,

    但我要說的是, 這聽起來可能有點怪。

  • and I don't think you should either.

    實際上我不贊同這種悲觀的論述,

  • Look, it's not that I don't see the problems.

    我想你們應該也別贊同。

  • I read the same headlines that you do.

    請注意,我並不是沒有 注意到這些問題。

  • What I dispute is the conclusion that so many people draw from them,

    我和各位閱讀的 新聞標題都是一樣的。

  • namely that we're all screwed

    我不認同標題黨的結論,

  • because the problems are unsolvable

    說的好像我們都很爛一樣,

  • and our governments are useless.

    因為好像我們都無法解決問題,

  • Now, why do I say this?

    而且我們的政府很無能。

  • It's not like I'm particularly optimistic by nature.

    我為什麼要說這個?

  • But something about the media's constant doom-mongering

    並不是我天生就特別樂觀,

  • with its fixation on problems and not on answers

    但是媒體持續散布這些負面消息,

  • has always really bugged me.

    把焦點放在問題上 而不是解決方案上,

  • So a few years ago I decided,

    讓我一直很惱怒。

  • well, I'm a journalist,

    所以幾年前,我決定,

  • I should see if I can do any better

    嗯, 我是一名記者,

  • by going around the world and actually asking folks

    我在想,我應該去試試我是否可以

  • if and how they've tackled

    藉由採訪世界各地的人民, 讓世界變得更好,

  • their big economic and political challenges.

    問問他們在面臨巨大的 經濟和政治挑戰時,

  • And what I found astonished me.

    是如何解決的。

  • It turns out that there are remarkable signs of progress out there,

    另我相當震驚的是,

  • often in the most unexpected places,

    我發現,世界進步的狀況相當驚人,

  • and they've convinced me that our great global challenges

    且經常出現在一些 最意想不到的地方,

  • may not be so unsolvable after all.

    而且他們讓我確信 我們巨大的全球性挑戰

  • Not only are there theoretical fixes;

    也許沒有想像中的困難。

  • those fixes have been tried.

    不僅理論上可以解決;

  • They've worked.

    而且那些方法已經被試驗過了,

  • And they offer hope for the rest of us.

    它們的確有效。

  • I'm going to show you what I mean

    而這也為我們其他人帶來了希望。

  • by telling you about how three of the countries I visited --

    我會藉由我去過的三個國家

  • Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --

    來向各位說明我的看法——

  • overcame three supposedly impossible problems.

    加拿大、印尼和墨西哥——

  • Their stories matter because they contain tools the rest of us can use,

    他們是如何克服 三個似乎不可能解決的問題。

  • and not just for those particular problems,

    他們的故事很重要,因為裡面包含了 可以解決我們問題的工具,

  • but for many others, too.

    而且不僅僅可以解決 一些特定的問題,

  • When most people think about my homeland, Canada, today,

    還可以解決許多其它的問題。

  • if they think about Canada at all,

    當大多數人現在想到 我的家鄉,加拿大,的時候,

  • they think cold, they think boring, they think polite.

    他們能想到加拿大的就是...

  • They think we say "sorry" too much in our funny accents.

    寒冷、無聊,但很有禮貌。

  • And that's all true.

    他們認為我們說 「對不起 」 時的口音很有趣。

  • (Laughter)

    這些都是事實。

  • Sorry.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    「對不起 」。

  • But Canada's also important

    (笑聲)

  • because of its triumph over a problem

    但是加拿大也很重要,

  • currently tearing many other countries apart:

    因為他們解決了一個

  • immigration.

    目前很多國家四分五裂的問題:

  • Consider, Canada today is among the world's most welcoming nations,

    移民。

  • even compared to other immigration-friendly countries.

    思考一下,加拿大是現今世上 最熱情的國家之一,

  • Its per capita immigration rate is four times higher than France's,

    比起其它移民政策寬鬆 的國家還要熱情。

  • and its percentage of foreign-born residents

    加拿大的平均移民人數 比法國高出四倍,

  • is double that of Sweden.

    而且加拿大的外國出生居民

  • Meanwhile, Canada admitted

    是瑞典的兩倍。

  • 10 times more Syrian refugees in the last year

    同時,加拿大去年接納的

  • than did the United States.

    敘利亞難民比美國接納的

  • (Applause)

    還多十倍。

  • And now Canada is taking even more.

    (掌聲)

  • And yet, if you ask Canadians

    而且現在加拿大 還在接收難民。

  • what makes them proudest of their country,

    但是,如果你問加拿大人

  • they rank "multiculturalism,"

    什麼最讓他們引以為傲,

  • a dirty word in most places,

    他們把「多元文化」,

  • second,

    一個在多數地方 不受歡迎的詞語,

  • ahead of hockey.

    排在第二,

  • Hockey.

    排名在曲棍球之前,

  • (Laughter)

    曲棍球。

  • In other words, at a time when other countries

    (笑聲)

  • are now frantically building new barriers to keep foreigners out,

    換句話說,當其他國家

  • Canadians want even more of them in.

    拼命製造障礙來 阻擋外來移民的時候,

  • Now, here's the really interesting part.

    加拿大人想讓 更多的移民進來。

  • Canada wasn't always like this.

    接下來是很有趣的部分。

  • Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed an explicitly racist immigration policy.

    加拿大不是一直都是這樣的。

  • They called it "White Canada,"

    直到20世紀60年代中期,加拿大都奉行 帶有明確種族色彩的移民政策。

  • and as you can see, they were not just talking about the snow.

    他們把這個政策稱作「白色加拿大」,

  • So how did that Canada become today's Canada?

    正如你們所見, 他們談的不只有白雪。

  • Well, despite what my mom in Ontario will tell you,

    那麼過去的加拿大 是如何成為現在的加拿大?

  • the answer had nothing to do with virtue.

    儘管我住在安大略省的 母親告訴你,

  • Canadians are not inherently better than anyone else.

    問題的答案和美德無關。

  • The real explanation involves the man who became Canada's leader in 1968,

    加拿大人不是天生就比其他人善良。

  • Pierre Trudeau, who is also the father of the current prime minister.

    真正的答案與在1968年成為 加拿大領導人的那個人有關。

  • (Applause)

    皮埃爾·特魯多,他也是現任 加拿大總理的父親。

  • The thing to know about that first Trudeau

    (掌聲)

  • is that he was very different from Canada's previous leaders.

    關於特魯多,首先我們要知道

  • He was a French speaker in a country long-dominated by its English elite.

    他不同於以往的加拿大領導人。

  • He was an intellectual.

    他在英文精英長期統治的國家裡, 說的是法語。

  • He was even kind of groovy.

    他是知識分子,

  • I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.

    他甚至有點時髦,

  • He hung out with the Beatles.

    說真的,這傢伙有做瑜伽。

  • (Laughter)

    他也跟披頭四一起瞎混。

  • And like all hipsters, he could be infuriating at times.

    (笑聲)

  • But he nevertheless pulled off

    就像所有追求時尚的人一樣, 他有時看起來也很另人討厭。

  • one of the most progressive transformations any country has ever seen.

    但是他還是完成了

  • His formula, I've learned, involved two parts.

    其它國家從未見過的躍進與轉變。

  • First, Canada threw out its old race-based immigration rules,

    他成功的模式,就我知道, 包括了兩個部分。

  • and it replaced them with new color-blind ones

    第一,加拿大廢除了過去 以種族為標準的老移民規則,

  • that emphasized education, experience and language skills instead.

    取而代之的是新的 無種族歧視的規則,

  • And what that did was greatly increase the odds

    這些規則注重教育、 工作經驗和語言技能。

  • that newcomers would contribute to the economy.

    這些規則顯著增加了

  • Then part two, Trudeau created the world's first policy

    新移民者為國家經濟 做出貢獻的機率。

  • of official multiculturalism to promote integration

    第二,特魯多制定了 世界上第一個

  • and the idea that diversity was the key to Canada's identity.

    提倡多元文化 相互融合的官方政策

  • Now, in the years that followed, Ottawa kept pushing this message,

    並提出「多元文化」對加拿大 「國家認同」的重要概念。

  • but at the same time, ordinary Canadians

    現在,在接下來的數年中, 渥太華將繼續提倡這個概念,

  • soon started to see the economic, the material benefits of multiculturalism

    但是同時,普通的加拿大市民

  • all around them.

    很快就會見證到他們身邊 由多元文化所帶來的

  • And these two influences soon combined

    經濟與實質效益。

  • to create the passionately open-minded Canada of today.

    這兩種影響很快會結合起來

  • Let's now turn to another country and an even tougher problem,

    創造今日充滿激情、 心智開放的加拿大。

  • Islamic extremism.

    現在讓我們看看另一個國家 和另一個更嚴重的問題,

  • In 1998, the people of Indonesia took to the streets

    伊斯蘭恐怖主義。

  • and overthrew their longtime dictator, Suharto.

    1988年,印尼人民上街抗議,

  • It was an amazing moment,

    推翻了長期統治的獨裁者,蘇哈托。

  • but it was also a scary one.

    令人相當驚豔的時刻,

  • With 250 million people,

    但也是可怕的時刻。

  • Indonesia is the largest Muslim-majority country on Earth.

    印尼擁有2億5千萬人口,

  • It's also hot, huge and unruly,

    是世界上最大 以穆斯林信徒為主導的國家。

  • made up of 17,000 islands,

    印尼也很熱, 面積很大,難以管治,

  • where people speak close to a thousand languages.

    它由1萬7千個島嶼組成,

  • Now, Suharto had been a dictator,

    人們使用將近1千種語言。

  • and a nasty one.

    蘇哈托是位獨裁者,

  • But he'd also been a pretty effective tyrant,

    一位兇惡的獨裁者。

  • and he'd always been careful to keep religion out of politics.

    但是他也是一位 做事相當有效率的暴君,

  • So experts feared that without him keeping a lid on things,

    他一直很小心地讓 宗教遠離政治。

  • the country would explode,

    所以專家們也害怕, 如果沒有他在控制局面,

  • or religious extremists would take over

    這個國家會發生動亂,

  • and turn Indonesia into a tropical version of Iran.

    或是極端的宗教主義者 會掌控政權,

  • And that's just what seemed to happen at first.

    然後把印尼變成 熱帶版的伊朗。

  • In the country's first free elections, in 1999,

    而這些擔憂,一開始 真的發生在印尼了。

  • Islamist parties scored 36 percent of the vote,

    1999年他們舉辦了 第一次的自由選舉,

  • and the islands burned

    伊斯蘭黨派獲得了 36%的選票,

  • as riots and terror attacks killed thousands.

    然後島嶼戰火開始不斷,

  • Since then, however, Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.

    成千上萬人因戰亂 和恐怖攻擊而喪生。

  • While ordinary folks have grown more pious on a personal level --

    然而,從那之後,印尼 發生了重大的轉變。

  • I saw a lot more headscarves on a recent visit

    雖然一般民眾在個人心理層面 變得更加虔誠——

  • than I would have a decade ago --

    我在近期的一次旅行中, 見到戴頭巾的人

  • the country's politics have moved in the opposite direction.

    比十年前見到的更多——

  • Indonesia is now a pretty decent democracy.

    但這個國家的政治方向 卻是往另一個方向走。

  • And yet, its Islamist parties have steadily lost support,

    印尼現在相當民主。

  • from a high of about 38 percent in 2004

    而伊斯蘭政黨 卻漸漸地在失去民心,

  • down to 25 percent in 2014.

    從2004年大概38%的高度支持

  • As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.

    降到2014年25%的支持度。

  • And while a few Indonesians have recently joined ISIS,

    至於恐怖主義,現在更是少見。

  • their number is tiny,

    儘管有一些印尼人 最近加入了伊斯蘭國,

  • far fewer in per capita terms

    但數量很少,

  • than the number of Belgians.

    以人均比例來看的話,

  • Try to think of one other Muslim-majority country

    遠少於比利時。

  • that can say all those same things.

    試想其它以穆斯林為主導的國家,

  • In 2014, I went to Indonesia to ask its current president,

    他們同樣是相對少的。

  • a soft-spoken technocrat named Joko Widodo,

    在2014年,我去印尼訪問了現任總統,

  • "Why is Indonesia thriving when so many other Muslim states are dying?"

    一位叫佐科·維多多的 聲音柔和的技術專家政治主義者,

  • "Well, what we realized," he told me,

    我問他,「為什麼當許多其它的穆斯林國家 瀕臨滅亡的時候,印尼卻蒸蒸日上呢?」

  • "is that to deal with extremism, we needed to deal with inequality first."

    他告訴我:「嗯,我們了解到

  • See, Indonesia's religious parties, like similar parties elsewhere,

    如果要解決極端主義, 我們得先解決不平等。」

  • had tended to focus on things like reducing poverty and cutting corruption.

    瞧,印尼的宗教政黨, 就像其它類似的政黨一樣,

  • So that's what Joko and his predecessors did too,

    都是傾向著重在解決貧困 和貪腐之類的問題。

  • thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.

    這都是維多多和前幾任 領導人做的事情,

  • They also cracked down hard on terrorism,

    因此伊斯蘭教就沒有發揮的空間。

  • but Indonesia's democrats have learned a key lesson

    他們也全力打擊恐怖主義,

  • from the dark years of dictatorship,

    但是印尼的民主人士 從過去黑暗的專制年代中

  • namely that repression only creates more extremism.

    學到了寶貴的經驗,

  • So they waged their war with extraordinary delicacy.

    那就是打壓只會 帶來更多的極端主義。

  • They used the police instead of the army.

    所以他們很小心地 在處理這件事。

  • They only detained suspects if they had enough evidence.

    他們動用警察來維安 而不是用軍隊。

  • They held public trials.

    他們只有在足夠的證據下 才會抓捕嫌疑人。

  • They even sent liberal imams into the jails

    他們會舉行公開的審問。

  • to persuade the jihadists that terror is un-Islamic.

    他們甚至讓伊斯蘭教長 進入監獄

  • And all of this paid off in spectacular fashion,

    去勸說伊斯蘭聖戰士, 恐怖主義是違背伊斯蘭主義的。

  • creating the kind of country that was unimaginable 20 years ago.

    所有的這些措施 得到了驚人的回報,

  • So at this point, my optimism should, I hope,

    創造了一個在20年前, 人們無法想像的國家。

  • be starting to make a bit more sense.

    所以,我會樂觀的原因

  • Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism are impossible to deal with.

    不是沒有道理的。

  • Join me now on one last trip,

    移民和伊斯蘭極端主義的問題 再也不可能無法解決。

  • this time to Mexico.

    現在和我一起進行 最後一段旅程,

  • Now, of our three stories, this one probably surprised me the most,

    接下來是去墨西哥。

  • since as you all know,

    這三個故事中, 墨西哥是最讓我驚訝的,

  • the country is still struggling with so many problems.

    因為大家都知道,

  • And yet, a few years ago, Mexico did something

    這個國家仍然有 許多問題沒有解決。

  • that many other countries from France to India to the United States

    但是,幾年前,墨西哥做了一些

  • can still only dream of.

    許多國家,包括法國、印度和美國

  • It shattered the political paralysis that had gripped it for years.

    做不到的事情。

  • To understand how, we need to rewind to the year 2000,

    墨西哥打破了困擾它 多年的政治僵局。

  • when Mexico finally became a democracy.

    為了了解他們是怎麼做到的, 我們需要回到2000年,

  • Rather than use their new freedoms to fight for reform,

    當時墨西哥終於成為了 一個民主國家。

  • Mexico's politicians used them to fight one another.

    墨西哥政治家沒利用 剛得到的自由來推動改革。

  • Congress deadlocked, and the country's problems --

    而是利用它們在做鬥爭,

  • drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --

    國會陷入僵局, 而且這個國家面臨的問題——

  • spun out of control.

    毒品、貧困、犯罪、貪腐——

  • Things got so bad that in 2008,

    完全失控。

  • the Pentagon warned that Mexico risked collapse.

    事態變得非常惡劣 以至於在2008年

  • Then in 2012, this guy named Enrique Peña Nieto

    美國國防部發出警告說, 墨西哥政府有垮台的危機。

  • somehow got himself elected president.

    然後在2012年, 這個叫恩里克·潘尼亞·尼托的人

  • Now, this Peña hardly inspired much confidence at first.

    透過某種方式當上了總統。

  • Sure, he was handsome,

    一開始,潘尼亞幾乎沒有 激勵到人們的信心。

  • but he came from Mexico's corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,

    沒錯,他很帥氣,

  • and he was a notorious womanizer.

    但是他來自墨西哥腐敗的 老執政黨,制度革命黨,

  • In fact, he seemed like such a pretty boy lightweight

    而且他是一位名聲不太好的花心男。

  • that women called him "bombón," sweetie,

    事實上,他笑起來像 個天真無邪的小男孩,

  • at campaign rallies.

    所以在競舉期間,

  • And yet this same bombón soon surprised everyone

    女人會叫他「小甜心」。

  • by hammering out a truce

    但是這個小甜心 很快就跌破了大家的眼鏡,

  • between the country's three warring political parties.

    因為他平息了這個國家

  • And over the next 18 months, they together passed

    三個政黨的激烈鬥爭。

  • an incredibly comprehensive set of reforms.

    而且在過去的18個月中, 他們一起通過了

  • They busted open Mexico's smothering monopolies.

    一系列難以置信的 全面改革措施。

  • They liberalized its rusting energy sector.

    他們開放了墨西哥 財團壟斷的事業。

  • They restructured its failing schools, and much more.

    他們把腐化的能源行業給自由化了。

  • To appreciate the scale of this accomplishment,

    他們重建了每況愈下的學校, 還有很多組織。

  • try to imagine the US Congress passing immigration reform,

    為了了解這些成就有多了不起,

  • campaign finance reform and banking reform.

    試想一下,美國國會 正在修正的移民法案、

  • Now, try to imagine Congress doing it all at the same time.

    競選經費改革 和銀行系統改革法案。

  • That's what Mexico did.

    現在,試想一下,國會要在同一時間 將這些法案通過。

  • Not long ago, I met with Peña and asked how he managed it all.

    墨西哥辦到了。

  • The President flashed me his famous twinkly smile --

    不久前,我跟潘尼亞碰面, 我問他,他是如何做到的。

  • (Laughter)

    總統給了我一個迷人的微笑——

  • and told me that the short answer was "compromiso," compromise.

    (笑聲)

  • Of course, I pushed him for details,

    然後告訴我一個 簡短的答案「妥協」。

  • and the long answer that came out was essentially

    當然,我追問了更多的細節,

  • "compromise, compromise and more compromise."

    最終得到的更長答案是

  • See, Peña knew that he needed to build trust early,

    「妥協、妥協、再妥協」。

  • so he started talking to the opposition just days after his election.

    潘尼亞知道他需要儘早建立信任,

  • To ward off pressure from special interests,

    所以他在選舉結束後 就開始和反對黨協商。

  • he kept their meetings small and secret,

    為了避開特殊 利益群體的壓力,

  • and many of the participants later told me that it was this intimacy,

    他讓會議以小規模形式秘密舉行,

  • plus a lot of shared tequila,

    很多參與者之後告訴我 正是這種親密關係

  • that helped build confidence.

    加上共享的龍舌蘭酒,

  • So did the fact that all decisions had to be unanimous,

    幫助建立了信心。

  • and that Peña even agreed to pass some of the other party's priorities

    為了讓所有的決議一致通過,

  • before his own.

    潘尼亞甚至讓其它黨派的重大議題

  • As Santiago Creel, an opposition senator, put it to me,

    比他自己黨派的議題先通過。

  • "Look, I'm not saying that I'm special or that anyone is special,

    正如聖地亞哥·克里爾, 一名反對黨的議員,對我說的,

  • but that group, that was special."

    「你看,我不是說我很特別, 或者某個人很特別,

  • The proof?

    而是那個團隊,是那個團隊很特別。」

  • When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,

    證據呢?

  • and Mexico moved forward for the first time in years.

    潘尼亞就職之後,信守承諾,

  • Bueno.

    在經過多年內亂後,帶領墨西哥 第一次向前行。

  • So now we've seen how these three countries

    太棒了。

  • overcame three of their great challenges.

    現在我們知道了 這三個國家是如何

  • And that's very nice for them, right?

    克服它們遇到的 三個巨大挑戰。

  • But what good does it do the rest of us?

    這對它們來說很棒, 是不是?

  • Well, in the course of studying these and a bunch of other success stories,

    但,這對我們其他人 來說有什麼好處呢?

  • like the way Rwanda pulled itself back together after civil war

    嗯,在研究這些國家和 一些其它國家成功經歷的過程中,

  • or Brazil has reduced inequality,

    比如盧旺達如何在內戰結束後, 讓國家團結起來,