Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Good morning. So by now, you'll all have heard of digitalization

  • and the way that companies transform their businesses by fully integrating digital technology

  • into all business processes.

  • Now, digitalizing a business does much more than just putting paper on glass. It weaves

  • a digital thread through the whole value-chain, giving companies the means to realize innovation

  • much faster than their competition and to future-proof their businesses in a constantly

  • changing marketplace.

  • But the disruptive nature of digitalization brings with it as much potential pain for

  • manufacturers that ignore it as it does for opportunity for those that embrace it.

  • You know, entire markets can really disappear overnight with a single innovation. The classic

  • example here was the rapid shift from film-based to digital photography driven by an improvement

  • in technology.

  • But actually, the adoption of phone-based cameras was far more dramatic, and this was

  • because of the paradigm shift that came with using phones. Whereas you used to take photos

  • to preserve your own memories, you now take them to share with friends and family.

  • And as digitalization enters the industrial world, we're certain that if our customers

  • don't act, then they may also disappear.

  • Now, it's a bold statement. But we feel confident about our message because we can go back in

  • history, we can look at what happened during the previous Industrial Revolutions and we

  • can put what we're doing today in a bigger context.

  • Now, we had virtually no progress in human life between the end of the Roman Empire and

  • the late Middle Ages. Between 1300 and 1700, economic growth was only at 0.2 percent per

  • year. Something growing at that rate requires 350 years to double; you can see that on the

  • graph.

  • But since the 1870s, the amount of time that it's taken for the standard of living to double

  • has been more like 30 years. So what accounts for that incredible change?

  • Well, actually, it was the discovery, the exploration and even the exploitation of Americas

  • that showed the Europeans that the pool of resources at their disposal could increase

  • over time. It seems like an incredibly simple concept, but up until that moment, the Europeans

  • felt that their pool of resources was fixed. That meant that if I wanted to prosper, you

  • had to get poorer.

  • This discovery, that there were more resources available in the world, gave them trust in

  • the future. Banks were born, and credit was invented in order to finance those adventures

  • and enterprises, and this had a knock on effect on industry.

  • So in 1776, Adam Smith published arguably the most important book of all time regarding

  • economics, and this was called The Wealth of Nations. He explained why some nations

  • are poor and how wealthier nations fostered this belief in growth.

  • They encouraged business owners to reinvest profits back into their business. Instead

  • of taking it out every year and keeping their businesses the same size, he said, well, once

  • you and your family have eaten, take those excess profits, reinvest them back in the

  • company, buy more capital equipment, hire more labor and your company will grow. You'll

  • create more profits that can be reinvested. The overall pie from which everyone eats is

  • going to grow, and all of society will benefit.

  • Within a year of Smith coining the term "capitalism," the world had its first truly global generic

  • technology for increasing productivity. This was James Watt's steam engine.

  • It was initially applied in the coal mining industry, not to dig the coal out directly.

  • In the U.K., the coal mines were flooded with water, so they couldn't access much of the

  • coal. They used the steam engine to pump the water out, giving them far more access to

  • the coal seams.

  • They ended up with giant mountains of coal alongside each one of the mines, far too much,

  • in fact, for the horses to cart away. So, someone had the genius idea of strapping a

  • steam engine to a wagon, and they invented he railroad. They used this to take the coal

  • and steam power over the next 100 years throughout Britain, and it became pervasive throughout

  • all industries.

  • By the 1800s, in fact, steam was at the heart of all heavy industry in Britain, and all

  • the factories looked like this.

  • Now, I'm going to describe the factory a little bit. At the bottom, buried underground in

  • fact, you have the engine room; there's a giant steam engine. Because it was burning

  • coal, you always had a coal stack to let the smoke out. And in the factory itself, all

  • of the equipment was organized vertically behind the engine room on three, four, five

  • stories.

  • Now why was this? Because in order to access that power from that single engine, they needed

  • to be as close as possible to that engine room, and that meant stacking them vertically.

  • There was a giant pulley with a leather belt, which drove shafts to give power to all of

  • the equipment.

  • Here's a picture, actually, of a factory from the 1800s. Isn't it amazing? It's chaotic,

  • but it's full of energy. Everything's moving. Everything's powered. And you can imagine

  • the massive leap of productivity that came with all of this free movement.

  • In fact, that inflection point on that graph, that jump in productivity, was really directly

  • due to steam power in manufacturing.

  • But for all its impact, this was an imperfect revolution. We all know the effect of burning

  • coal on the atmosphere. It wasn't a great place to be in the 1800s. And, of course,

  • the one massive engine that was installed at the heart of these factories represented

  • a kind of single point of failure. Plus, the leather belts were driving all of the equipment

  • at the same speed, which isn't great for flexibility.

  • And, as you can imagine, with all of the equipment tied to the same machine, I wasn't really

  • able to make really more than one type of product in one factory. So, very little flexibility.

  • Now, factories don't look like that anymore, and the reason is this little guy. It looks

  • pretty innocuous, doesn't it? But it had the power to change everything.

  • It's a model of the very first electrical motor, invented by a friend of ours, Werner

  • Von Siemens. He invented this in 1866.

  • We now a lot about that period because Werner wrote a lot of letters. He wrote letters to

  • his wife, which is something I don't really understand why didn't he just talk to her?

  • And, also a lot of letters to his brother, William, who was running Siemens U.K. at the

  • time. And he wrote him one letter about his electro dynamo:

  • I believe that this small invention has the power to change everything, to revolutionize

  • industry, to revolutionize Siemens and to change society for the better.

  • And he was absolutely correct. What he didn't anticipate was just how long this adaptation

  • would take.

  • By 1900, four decades - forty years - after his invention, 95 percent of industry was

  • still steam powered. And the few companies that had actually shifted to electrical power

  • were swapping out steam motors one-for-one for the electrical motors. They weren't using

  • the transformational potential of electricity; they were just installing great, big electrical

  • motors in the place of the steam engines.

  • Now, this looks like a picture from a steam factory, right? But, it's actually electrical-powered.

  • It's one of those early adopters of the big electrical engine using the same old leather

  • belts to drive the equipment. It wasn't until the 1920s that the diffusion

  • of the technology passed the 50 percent point. Why did it take so long? Well, for the same

  • reason that our customers don't always buy the technology we pitch immediately, even

  • if it is awesome. They want to see the technology mature; existing equipment has to be depreciated.

  • Business processes get in the way of change.

  • It took 100 years for steam to become firmly established in industry, and 60 years for

  • electricity. But once the shift started, it began unlocking major productivity gains as

  • small electrical motors were used to drive individual machines, and the manufacturing

  • process fundamentally changed.

  • More and more companies jumped on the bandwagon, and a kind of polarization occurred. The companies

  • that didn't move fast enough get left behind.

  • This is what we call the tipping point.

  • So here's my first key message: It takes time for change to happen, but once you get to

  • this tipping point it happens really quickly.

  • I like to think of a skiing analogy. Picture the slopes. It's been snowing all season;

  • it's pretty late in the season now. It's nice warm weather. The smart CEOs are down at the

  • beach with their families. The laggards are still on the slopes. They paid for their season

  • passes, and they're going to use them. And as the temperature rises, they're really happy

  • skiing in their shirt sleeves until it all comes crashing down.

  • Let's take a look at this video.

  • Now the fact that no rabbits were harmed in this movie is actually where the analogy breaks

  • down, because in Industrial Revolutions, the laggards die. That has been proven time and

  • time again.

  • Now, steam, electricity and automation are the three milestones or revolutions that have

  • kept productivity increasing for 200 years. And Siemens has been at the forefront of each

  • of those revolutions.

  • But since the 1970s, overall productivity growth has been dropping off. As you see,

  • we're now down at the levels we were in the 15, 1600s, and remember what that means for

  • standard living improvements.

  • Why is this?

  • Well, there are numerous macroeconomic factors at play here, but one significant and surprising

  • one is the consumer herself.

  • The Internet has provided transparency and choice for nearly 3 billion connected consumers.

  • We want smarter products with microelectronics, semiconductors and embedded software. Think

  • of the sophistication and quality of a family sedan in 2016, and compare it to one from

  • the 1970s. There is no comparison.

  • But as products get smarter, their complexity increases. A modern car has more than 100

  • CPUs, more than 100 computers onboard, controlling everything from entertainment, internal comfort,

  • ride dynamics, engine performance management.

  • You have to add to that incredible complexity. The ability that automotive companies provide

  • to their customers to configure an almost infinite combination of colors, styles, accessories,

  • engine performance enhancements, interior designs. With current manufacturing technology

  • that hasn't fundamentally changed since the 1950s, we really struggle to keep up in terms

  • of productivity.

  • It's almost as if productivity, flexibility and quality are three mutually exclusive options

  • you have to decide between. And the more the market expects manufacturers to provide that

  • flexibility, that individualization and quality - so, productivity suffers.

  • In 2011, the German government realized that if this continued, then their huge manufacturing

  • base would soon hit a brick wall.

  • They launched Industry 4.0 precisely to find a solution to this challenge. They wanted

  • to apply to manufacturing the same kind of digital technologies that were revolutionizing

  • the business world and offer bespoke tailoring of these complex products at greater efficiency

  • than they could offer today with mass production.

  • They weren't interested in making small, incremental improvements. They wanted to change the paradigm

  • completely. They wanted a huge leap in productivity. They were looking for a fourth Industrial

  • Revolution.

  • Now the video you see here does a pretty good job of showing how this paradigm shift occurs,

  • taking the fixed but highly automated lines that are in all automotive factories today

  • and have been since Henry Ford first made the Model T, and turning the paradigm on its

  • head: putting the intelligence of how a product should be made inside the product itself,

  • and allowing that product to negotiate with far more flexible logistic systems, robotics,

  • and having them collaborate with people to make that car, or that train or that aircraft.

  • Fortunately, Siemens was way ahead of the game. By 2011, we had already been working

  • on our digitalization strategy for more than a decade. We had developed or had acquired

  • many of the building blocks that would become our Digital Enterprise Software Suite: PLM,

  • MES, automation, a collaboration platform, high-performance industrial networks, security.

  • Of course, we were aware that the market would require convincing references, and so our

  • attention turned inwards to our own 300 manufacturing facilities.

  • Today, the Amberg facility in Germany that makes SIMATIC switchgear and industrial computers

  • is affectionately known as the "Industry 4.0 factory." A lot has been said about it, but

  • I think it's worth looking again at some of the highlights.

  • It's not a big factory, but it is fast. We make more than 1 million products a month

  • - that's one every second. Bang, bang, bang, bang. And these are complex products. Now

  • normally, in order to be able to achieve this kind of productivity, a factory would have

  • to concentrate on a very small number of products, would have to set everything up perfectly,

  • would have to avoid any kind of disturbance or changeover.

  • But we understood that that was a thing of the past. We didn't want to be that kind of

  • factory. And so, we built flexibility into our business processes.

  • Today in Amberg, we offer more than 1,300 products to the market, all designed in NX,

  • all managed in Teamcenter and all produced with SIMATIC on the factory floor. We offer

  • these products to more than 60,000 different customers. And, remarkably, we are able to

  • provide customers with a guaranteed 24 hour lead time. That means you pick up the phone,

  • you order a product and one day later, you have it. That is unprecedented, and it changed

  • the paradigm of the industry.

  • Now, I've met many customers who are fast and flexible. And, what suffers is normally

  • quality. But in Amberg, we do the seemingly impossible. We have a defect rate of just

  • 11 % it's now 11% defects per million. That's 99.9989 percent perfection. Every single product

  • we make. Every single second.

  • So, how did we achieve this? Well, through digitalization, clearly. We create an entire

  • digital twin of our whole value chain. That means designers, and engineers, and operators

  • can collaborate within a completely virtual world designing the product, testing the product

  • without creating physical prototypes.

  • We can design the factory, the equipment, the logistics systems.

  • We can push the virtual product and the virtual plant together in order to understand the

  • most efficient production process.

  • We can simulate people. You know, there's 1,200 people working in that factory. We have

  • to simulate their movements, the way they interact with the product. We simulate the

  • equipment, we simulate the logistics, until we've identified every potential bottleneck,

  • every problem with manufacturability, and we've resolved all of those problems in the

  • virtual world before we ever commit a resource in the real world.

  • Once that's done, we publish the result. It's called a bill of process; it's a kind of blueprint.

  • We publish it into the shop floor, and the MES takes that, and it guides every single

  • one of our products around the factory. As you can see in the photo, each one of the

  • products is sitting in its own little buggy.

  • So, unlike normal factories, where all the product flows in a very uniform way through

  • the production facility, we use the bill of process to drive each product individually

  • through the factory. And, 50 million conversations occur each day between the products and the

  • smart equipment.

  • Each product understands which is the next production step that needs to occur. It reaches

  • out to the equipment. It asks for the equipment with the right capabilities. And when it finds

  • it, it asks the logistics system to route it there. Once the operation is done, it's

  • able to test itself. If there's a problem, it goes and finds someone to rework it, and

  • it provides electronic work instructions using augmented reality to make sure that job is

  • done correctly.

  • The result is speed, the result is flexibility and the result is unparalleled levels of quality.

  • Finally, we have a factory with no latency, no stockpiles, no wasted resources. We offer

  • our customers individualized products with future-proof manufacturing.

  • Now this is the promise of Industry 4.0, and as part of the Siemens community, we are incredibly

  • privileged to be able to talk to our customers about this with the knowledge that we've already

  • done it. We can take our customers to see this, and we can then help them on their journey

  • to becoming their own digital enterprise.

  • What's more, we know that all of this learning is built into our own Digital Enterprise Software

  • Suite. It's the first and only digitalized portfolio that covers a manufacturer's entire

  • value chain.

  • Now, when we talk to our customers about digitalization, we show them Amberg, Cheng Du, Maserati, Rolls

  • Royce - they understand the potential. But all too often, they say: you know what, this

  • was great. We're going to go back home. We're going to create a committee; it's going to

  • be called "Vision 2030," and we'll get back to you when we've written some white papers.

  • We have to impress upon these customers that they have no time to wait, and we do this

  • by going back in history.

  • Intel's Gordon Moore famously predicted that the speed of semiconductors would double every

  • 18 months. Now, everyone knows this rule. My kids </