The U.K. and the Brexit negotiations. United Kingdom, it is official to trigger Brexit on March 29th.

那就是英國與脫歐的談判。英國在3月29日正式啟動脫歐程序

That's according to the Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesperson.

德蕾莎·梅伊的發言人如此表示

So put that in your diary, the official negotiations for the U.K.'s exit from the European Union will begin on March 29th.

把這件事情記下來吧，英國的正式脫歐談判將在3月29號展開

The one I bring in the guest is about Mateos y Lago of BlackRock,

今天我邀請的來賓有 Mateos y Lago of BlackRock

and of course David Kohl of Julius Baer, head of currency research, do very much with us.

和貨幣研究權威 David Kohl of Julius Baer 一同參與

David I want to begin with you, the Brexit negotiation said to officially begin next week,

David，我想從你先開始，據說脫毆談判在下週就正式展開了

sterling negative drivers, is this going to be one, even though we knew it was coming?

英鎊會貶值嗎？即便脫歐勢在必行，英鎊會受到衝擊嗎？

I agree, I mean I think they proceed and saw the Brexit negotiation actually starting is well-discounted in sterling.

我同意，我認為脫歐談判的開始其實已造成英鎊貶值

We think the only thing which can drive sterling even lower and we think this will happen,

我們認為，促使英鎊續貶的事件終將發生

is actually that we see a reaction in terms of money flows into the U.K..

那就是進入英國的資金流對此事件的反應

Remember we have very strong foreign direct investment flows into the U.K.,

要知道英國有許多外國直接投資

which are financing a huge current account deficits around 5,6 percent.

這些投資幫助了 5％或6％的經常帳赤字

They have not slowed yet, so there have been no reaction yet.

不過這些直接投資並沒有減緩的跡象，所以他們目前尚未針對脫歐做出反應

We think this will happen later in the negotiation process,

我們認為在之後的談判過程當中，外資會有所反應

and this will be a renewed weakness for the pounds.

而這會造成英鎊再次疲軟

So far we think that all this talk about hard-brexit and soft-brexit and more hard-brexit actually,

到目前為止，我們對硬性脫歐與軟性脫歐的討論，其實大部分圍繞在硬性脫歐

negotiation of strategy of the U.K. government is prized in the depressed level of the currency

在貨幣低迷的情況下，英國政府的談判策略相當重要

so for now rather neutral outlook in the shorter term and the negative in the longer term.

所以目前看來，短期內英鎊維持不變，但是長遠來看，英鎊有走貶的趨勢