and many have felt that this was really the jewel in their crown.

很多人認為這個部門是東芝最重要的部門

But you've been writing it actually might be the right time to get rid of this.

但你卻寫道：現在割捨這個部門可能會是最佳決策

Yeah, exactly. I'm one of the many people who do feel that it is a jewel in their crown,

是的，我不否認它是東芝最有價值的部門之一，

given that they've got this nuclear scandal that's going on, that's really hurting their financials.

尤其考量到最近發生的核災事件對他們財務所造成的嚴重虧損

They're going to have to take a loss on it.

這個損失是無可避免的

But in the Gadfly column, I wrote, in the last 24 hours, I do argue that the issue here for Toshiba and the chip business is,

但昨天在我的 Gadfly 專欄中，我提到，東芝和它的晶片部門目前面臨的問題是：

we may be hitting peak memory.

晶片的記憶容量的發展性可能將達上限

What they're doing is making memory chips the most prevalent type of chips.

他們把記憶體晶片普及化，成為所有晶片中最普及的一種

It's very much a commodity chip, and what we're seeing now in China is that there's a lot of new upstarts, competitors,

這些晶片已成為一種消費性產品，我們可以在中國大陸看到許多新的製造商和現有製造商

who are spending a lot of money to build capacity,

花費大筆費用擴增產能

like incredible amounts of money—we're talking billions and billions of dollars over the next few years—to build capacity.

非常大筆的金額，未來幾年中，他們會花上幾十、幾百億

And in a commodity business like memory chips, when there's a lot of extra capacity,

在這種消費性產業中，在產能很高的情況下

oversupply can lead to falling prices, and it becomes this vicious cycle of lower prices, making it very difficult to make profits.

生產過剩會導致價格下降，從此進入價格不斷下跌的惡性循環，也就很難賺取利潤

And in fact, ironically, one of the ways that you have to deal with that

事實上，好笑的是，你要應付價格下降的問題，

is to turn out more chips just to create revenue to help cover the depreciation cost.

就得再生產更多的晶片來增加營收

So really, there's a big risk to anyone in the memory industry over the next few years,

所以，晶片產業中的所有競爭者，在未來幾年內都會面臨一個很大的風險

as all this new supply comes online in China, in the next 2 to 3, 4 years.

隨著中國大陸廠商在未來兩到四年內逐漸加入生產行列

And this may be a great time for Toshiba to get out of that business and to sell to somebody who wants to be in the business.

所以現在對東芝來說，是一個放棄晶片事業，並將其出售給有意待在晶片產業中的競爭者的好時機

Well, maybe Toshiba hoping that Foxconn and, indeed, some of the other potential buyers aren't reading your Gadfly column.

也許東芝正在祈禱富智康和其他可能的買家不會讀到你的 Gadfly 專欄