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  • It is never fun to arrive at a party to discover that it has already ended.

    當你到了一場派對卻發現它已經結束了,你一定覺得很掃興吧

  • Excited investors who have been looking to a wager on the rebound in the US energy sector may start to feel a little bit deflated

    當那些原本想在美國能源復甦下賭注的投資人

  • when they check the share prices of the once bombed-out oil services companies.

    看到已經飆高的美國石油公司的股價,可能會因此開始感到消沉

  • Shares in Halliburton have almost doubled over the last 12 months as higher oil has,

    Halliburton 公司的股票在過去12個月幾乎成長了兩倍,

  • in the words of Halliburton's chief executive this week, meant that the animal spirits have broken free and they are running.

    這都是因為,套一句 Halliburton 首席執行長的話—— 他們的動物本能被激發了

  • But for those who feel left behind, there is still a bit of hope,

    不過,對於那些跟不上腳步的人,他們還是有一些希望的,

  • but it will require digging around some of the more obscure parts of the US stock market.

    只不過就會需要他們在美國股市中尋找一些較不知名的股票

  • A number of smaller American oil services companies entered into chapter 11 bankruptcy over the last three years,

    美國一些較小的石油企業在過去三年進入了破產保護的階段,

  • having run up too much debt when the energy market took a tumble.

    這則是因為能源市場萎縮時,這些企業承擔了太多負債

  • Some of these are now quietly re-emerging from bankruptcy and relisting on the New York Stock Exchange, having re-structured their debts.

    他們有些重新整頓後,已經開始從破產危機中復甦,重新進入紐約證券交易所

  • They're barely followed by any Wall Street analyst and they trade at the deep discounts to peers,

    這些公司鮮少被華爾街的分析師追蹤,而他們的交易價格也比同行低許多

  • and in some ways can be seen to offer a way to bet on the recovery in US domestic drilling

    也許是讓投資人在美國能源復甦下賭注的方式

  • whilst avoiding being swept up in the irrational exuberance on display in the wider oil services sector.

    同時又可以在估價過高的石油企業中生存

  • One of these companies, which is the Huston-based Key Energy, entered into chapter 11 in October,

    這其中有一家公司以休士頓為總部的克羅公司,在 10月聲請破產保護,

  • and re-emerged from the process just over a month ago.

    在一個月前又再度復甦

  • It was one of the largest US onshore, rig-based well services companies,

    它是美國最大的以鑽油為主的公司之一

  • And Key's re-structuring involved all about wiping out the shareholders and slashing its net debt, from a previous 868 million dollars to now 142 million dollars.

    克羅的重整工作包含了消減股東與清除債務,它的債務從8.68億降到了1.42億美元

  • Since getting out of chapter 11 in mid-December, its equity has traded at a total value of around 700 million dollars,

    自從12月中脫離破產保護後,它的股票交易額達到了7億美元,

  • giving it an enterprise value of 840 million dollars.

    企業價值則達到了8.4億美元

  • If Key Energy Services business recovers to anywhere near where it was before the oil slump,

    假使克羅可以完全恢復到石油產業暴跌之前的樣子

  • so for example in 2012, it made over 400 million dollars and earnings before interest taxation depreciation and amortization,

    ——也就是說,例如在 2012年,它稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 為4億美元,

  • then, that would imply the share's trade today on an implied future enterprise value over EBITDA of just about two times.

    那麼,它今日的股票交易便是估測的未來企業價值的 EBITDA 的兩倍

  • So if you then assign Key a fairly conservative multiple of five times EBITDA , we have to remember that Halliburton, a far far larger peer,

    所以,如果跟克羅簽下5倍 EBITDA 的較保守的複合式契約,我們要記得——Halliburton——更具勢力的同業

  • trades on a two year forward multiple of 10 times, so more than double, then Key share price more than doubles itself.

    以 EBITDA 10倍的2年期遠期契約交易,為前者的2倍以上,那麼克羅的股價就會以倍數成長

  • A return like that would certainly help ease any disappointment at missing out on last year's recovery.

    這樣的回報,絕對可以平復沒有跟上去年復甦的投資人的失望了

It is never fun to arrive at a party to discover that it has already ended.

當你到了一場派對卻發現它已經結束了,你一定覺得很掃興吧

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