Name: 【TED】Sam Harris:我們能在不失去控制權的情況下構建人工智能嗎？(Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris) (【TED】Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it? (Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:43:10.000Z
Duration: 14 min 28 s

I'm going to talk about a failure of intuition

我要談一種我們很多人遭受的、直覺上的失誤。

那其實是一種使你無法察覺到特定種類危險的失誤。

程度副詞

It's really a failure to detect a certain kind of danger.

然而比起感到害怕，大部分的人會覺得

And yet rather than be scared, most of you will feel

that what I'm talking about is kind of cool.

我將會描述在人工智能領域我們的進展

I'm going to describe how the gains we make

事實上，我認為很難看出他們為何不會消滅我們

And in fact, I think it's very difficult to see how they won't destroy us

你會發現思考這類事情很有趣。

you'll find that it's fun to think about these things.

對嗎？那種反應應該讓你感到擔心。

And that response is part of the problem.

如果我是打算在這個裡演講說服你，

我們很可能會遭受全球性的飢荒

And if I were to convince you in this talk

無論是因為氣候變遷或某種大災難

that we were likely to suffer a global famine,

而你的孫子們或者孫子們的孫子們

either because of climate change or some other catastrophe,

and that your grandchildren, or their grandchildren,

另一方面來說，科幻式的死亡，是有趣的。

而現階段人工智能的發展讓最讓我擔心的是

Death by science fiction, on the other hand, is fun,

我們似乎無法組織出一個適當的情緒反應，

and one of the things that worries me most about the development of AI at this point

is that we seem unable to marshal an appropriate emotional response

我無法組織出這個回應，所以我在這裡講這個。

I am unable to marshal this response, and I'm giving this talk.

It's as though we stand before two doors.

我們停止發展「製造有智能的機器」。

我們的電腦硬體和軟體就因故停止變得更好。

we stop making progress in building intelligent machines.

現在花一點時間想想為什麼這會發生。

Our computer hardware and software just stops getting better for some reason.

我的意思是，人工智能和自動化如此有價值，

Now take a moment to consider why this might happen.

我們會持續改善我們的科技，只要我們有能力做。

I mean, given how valuable intelligence and automation are,

有什麼東西能阻止我們這麼做呢？

we will continue to improve our technology if we are at all able to.

Justin Bieber becoming president of the United States?

重點是：必須有什麼我們知道的東西會毀滅我們的文明。

The point is, something would have to destroy civilization as we know it.

才能阻止我們持續改善我們的科技，

You have to imagine how bad it would have to be

to prevent us from making improvements in our technology

人類歷史上發生過的最糟的事。

Almost by definition, this is the worst thing

是我們繼續改善我們的智能機器

and this is what lies behind door number two,

is that we continue to improve our intelligent machines

到某個時間點我們會造出比我們還聰明的機器，

而我們一旦造出比我們聰明的機器，

At a certain point, we will build machines that are smarter than we are,

and once we have machines that are smarter than we are,

然後我們承擔數學家 ij Good 稱為

And then we risk what the mathematician IJ Good called

這時常被漫畫化，如我的這張圖，

一種恐懼：充滿惡意的機械人軍團

Now, this is often caricatured, as I have here,

as a fear that armies of malicious robots

並不是說我們的機器會變得自然地帶有敵意。

It's not that our machines will become spontaneously malevolent.

The concern is really that we will build machines

只要我們和他們的目標些微的歧異

that are so much more competent than we are

that the slightest divergence between their goals and our own

甚至有時我們為了不傷害牠們而承受痛苦。

In fact, sometimes we take pains not to harm them.

譬如當我們要建造一棟和這裡一樣的建築物，

seriously conflicts with one of our goals,

let's say when constructing a building like this one,

問題在於有一天我們會造出機器，

無論他們是有意識或的者沒有意識的，

The concern is that we will one day build machines

會對我們如螞蟻般的不予理會。

現在，我懷疑這對說法這裡大部分的人來說不著邊際。

我確信你們有些人懷疑超級人工智能出現的可能，

Now, I suspect this seems far-fetched to many of you.

I bet there are those of you who doubt that superintelligent AI is possible,

但接著你一點會發現接下來其中一個假設有點問題。

But then you must find something wrong with one of the following assumptions.

智能是關於資訊在物質系統裡處理的過程。

其實這個陳述稍微多於一個假設

Intelligence is a matter of information processing in physical systems.

我們已經在我們的機器裡安裝了有限的智能，

Actually, this is a little bit more than an assumption.

We have already built narrow intelligence into our machines,

at a level of superhuman intelligence already.

可能導致被稱為「通用智能」的東西，

一種能跨多個領域彈性地思考的能力，

can give rise to what is called "general intelligence,"

因為我們的腦已經掌握了這個，對吧？

an ability to think flexibly across multiple domains,

我的意思是，裡面都只是原子，

because our brains have managed it. Right?

而只要我們繼續製造基於原子的系統

and as long as we continue to build systems of atoms

我們終究會，除非我們被打斷，

【TED】Sam Harris:我們能在不失去控制權的情況下構建人工智能嗎？(Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris) (【TED】Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it? (Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris))

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【TED】Sam Harris:我們能在不失去控制權的情況下構建人工智能嗎？(Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris) (【TED】Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it? (Can we build AI without losing control over it? | Sam Harris))

crucial

scenario

eventually

physical