Here is 2017 in a minute.

歡迎收看 一分鐘看 2017

The bond market certainly appearses it's turning 2016,

2016 的債券市場毫無疑問是個波折的一年

bond yields hit a bottom and started rising very dramatically.

債券收益先是暴跌然後又大幅度反彈

Can we be sure that that trend will be relied on in 2017?

我們是否能確定 2017 年也會如此呢？

Well first of all, take a look at inflation expectations,

首先，讓我們來看看預期的通貨膨脹

yes, they certainly seemed to turn up with very significantly,

沒錯，漲幅看起來十分地顯著

most obviously, in the States, but also in Germany and in Japan.

美國的市場最為明顯，德國與日本也是

If that continues then it's difficult for bond yields to keep at their still remarkably low levels.

如果這幅度持續下去，那麼債券收益將難以維持於它顯著的低水平

Second critical dimension is the behaviour of central banks.

第二個關鍵是各地區央行的表現

Herewith see what the proportionate changes the three big central banks have made to their balance sheets over the last decade.

這裡我們可以看到比例改變了三大央行，可看出三大央行十年來已達到資產負債表的目標

You can see that the federal reserve has now stopped trying to administer the new stimulus

可以看到美國聯準會已終止嘗試注入新刺激

that's not true of either the bank of Japan or the ECB.

但日本央行與歐洲中央銀行卻不是如此

The critical question is are they really going to stop or taper off their support for the bond markets.

最關鍵的問題為央行是否真的會停止或是降低對債券市場的支持

If they don't it's still hard even now it'll be that bearish about bonds.

若它們不再支持，仍會很困難，即使現在債券的行情下跌

That's the New York Minute.

以上是一分鐘看紐約