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  • So, I was in the hospital for a long time.

    所以,我曾經在醫院過了一段很長的時間。

  • And a few years after I left, I went back,

    而在我離開幾年後,我再回去,

  • and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --

    而燒傷部的主席非常高興地見到我--

  • said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."

    他說:「Dan,我有一個奇妙的新治療給你。」

  • I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.

    我感到非常興奮。我跟他走到他的辦公室。

  • And he explained to me that, when I shave,

    他向我解釋說,當我刮鬍子時,

  • I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,

    我在左邊臉有毛髮的部位有黑點

  • but on the right side of my face

    但在右邊

  • I was badly burned so I have no hair,

    被嚴重燒傷的臉沒有毛髮,

  • and this creates lack of symmetry.

    這造成缺乏對稱。

  • And what's the brilliant idea he had?

    而他有什麼高招?

  • He was going to tattoo little black dots

    他打算在我的右臉

  • on the right side of my face

    紋一些小黑點

  • and make me look very symmetric.

    使我看起來非常對稱。

  • It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.

    聽起來很有意思。他叫我去刮鬍子。

  • Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,

    讓我告訴你,這是一種奇怪刮鬍子的方式,

  • because I thought about it

    因為我想過這個問題,

  • and I realized that the way I was shaving then

    我當時意識到,我刻下剃須的方法,

  • would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --

    便將會是我今後剃須的方法--

  • because I had to keep the width the same.

    因為我必須保持寬度相同。

  • When I got back to his office,

    當我回到他的辦公室,

  • I wasn't really sure.

    我真的決定不穩。

  • I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"

    我說,「我能否看到一些證據呢?」

  • So he showed me some pictures

    於是,他給我看了一些

  • of little cheeks with little black dots --

    小臉頰有小黑點照片 --

  • not very informative.

    不是很有建設性。

  • I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?

    我說:「如果當我老年時我的頭髮變成白色,

  • What would happen then?"

    那會怎樣呢?」

  • "Oh, don't worry about it," he said.

    他說:「哦,不用擔心」,

  • "We have lasers; we can whiten it out."

    「我們有激光,我們可以改變成白色。」

  • But I was still concerned,

    但我仍然擔心,

  • so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."

    所以我說,「算了,我不打算這樣做。」

  • And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.

    然後, 我聽到我一生中最大的令我感到内疚的話。

  • This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.

    這個猶太傢伙都這樣說,這就表示很問題很嚴重。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?

    他說:「Dan,你是否有什麼問題?

  • Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?

    你喜歡看起來非不對稱嗎?

  • Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?

    你是否由此有某種變態的快感呢?

  • Do women feel pity for you

    是否有女人覺得可憐你

  • and have sex with you more frequently?"

    而和你更頻繁發生性關係呢?」

  • None of those happened.

    當然沒有這些事。

  • And this was very surprising to me,

    而令我非常驚訝的是,

  • because I've gone through many treatments --

    因為我已經經歷了許多治療方法 --

  • there were many treatments I decided not to do --

    亦有許多我決定不做的治療方法--

  • and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.

    我從來沒有到過這種令我感到内疚的程度。

  • But I decided not to have this treatment.

    但我決定不要這種療法。

  • And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?

    當我去問他的副手 :「究竟發生什麼事?

  • Where was this guilt trip coming from?"

    為什麼要令人感到内疚呢?」

  • And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,

    他解釋說,他們這樣的療法已經在兩名病人身上做過,

  • and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.

    而他們需要第三個病人來寫他們的論文。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.

    現在你可能認為這傢伙非常糟糕。

  • Right, that's what he seems like.

    當然,似乎他就是非常糟糕。

  • But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.

    但是讓我給你一個不同的角度看同一個故事。

  • A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.

    幾年前,在實驗室裡我正進行一些我自己的實驗。

  • And when we run experiments,

    而當我們進行實驗,

  • we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.

    我們通常希望一組和另一組有不同的表現。

  • So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,

    因此,我們有一個希望他們表現會非常高個的一組,

  • another group that I thought their performance would be very low,

    而有另一個希望他們表現會非常低的一組。

  • and when I got the results, that's what we got --

    而當我得到的結果--

  • I was very happy -- aside from one person.

    -- 我很高興 -- 除了對一個人。

  • There was one person in the group

    在小組有一個人

  • that was supposed to have very high performance

    應該是有非常高的表現,

  • that was actually performing terribly.

    但是實際執行時卻糟透。

  • And he pulled the whole mean down,

    他將整個平均拉下來,

  • destroying my statistical significance of the test.

    摧毀了我實驗的統計意義。

  • So I looked carefully at this guy.

    是以我仔細研究過這傢伙。

  • He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.

    他是一個比其他人老20歲以上的的樣本。

  • And I remembered that the old and drunken guy

    而我記得,那醉酒傢伙

  • came one day to the lab

    來過實驗室

  • wanting to make some easy cash

    想要找賺一些快錢,

  • and this was the guy.

    這就是那傢伙。

  • "Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.

    我想: 「太棒了! 就讓我們扔掉他。

  • Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"

    誰會用一個喝醉酒的傢伙做實驗呢 ?」

  • But a couple of days later,

    但兩天後,

  • we thought about it with my students,

    我們與學生想想,

  • and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?

    我們說,「如果這傢伙是不是在醉酒的狀態會怎樣呢?

  • What would have happened if he was in the other group?

    如果他在另一組會怎樣呢?

  • Would we have thrown him out then?"

    請問我們會不會扔掉他呢?」

  • We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,

    我們也許就根本不會看數據,

  • and if we did look at the data,

    但如果我們看一下數據,

  • we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"

    我們可能會說,「神奇!一個多麼聰明的傢伙竟然得到這個低的結果」,

  • because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,

    因為他會拉低該組的平均数,

  • giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.

    讓我們有更強勁的統計結果

  • So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.

    因此,我們決定不扔掉那傢伙出來,並重新運行實驗。

  • But you know, these stories,

    但是你要知道,這些故事,

  • and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,

    以及很多其他我們做過的關於利益衝突的實驗,

  • basically kind of bring two points

    基本上為我

  • to the foreground for me.

    提出兩點。

  • The first one is that in life we encounter many people

    第一個是,在生活中我們遇到很多人,

  • who, in some way or another,

    以一些某種方式,

  • try to tattoo our faces.

    嘗試在我們的臉上紋身。

  • They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality

    他們被有激勵的動機蒙蔽了現實,

  • and give us advice that is inherently biased.

    而給我們本質上是有偏見的建議。

  • And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,

    而且我敢肯定這是我們都能看到的事情,

  • and we see that it happens.

    我們都承認它發生的事情。

  • Maybe we don't recognize it every time,

    也許我們不能每一次都認出,

  • but we understand that it happens.

    但我們知道這會發生。

  • The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize

    最困難的事情,當然是要認識到

  • that sometimes we too

    有時我們也被

  • are blinded by our own incentives.

    激勵的機制蒙蔽了我們自己。

  • And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.

    而這是一個非常,非常困難考慮的教訓。

  • Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.

    因為我們看不清楚對我們個人的利益衝突。

  • When I was doing these experiments,

    當我在做這些實驗,

  • in my mind, I was helping science.

    在我心中,我是助長科學。

  • I was eliminating the data

    我是在消除了某些數據

  • to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.

    來獲取真實模式的數據彪炳。

  • I wasn't doing something bad.

    我沒有做壞事。

  • In my mind, I was actually a knight

    在我心目中,我其實是一個

  • trying to help science move along.

    想幫科學向前看的騎士。

  • But this was not the case.

    但這種情況並非如此。

  • I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.

    我其實是以大量的好意圖來干擾過程。

  • And I think the real challenge is to figure out

    我認為,真正的挑戰是要弄清楚

  • where are the cases in our lives

    在我們生活中

  • where conflicts of interest work on us,

    利益衝突在何處影響了我們,

  • and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,

    並盡量不信任自己的直覺去克服它,

  • but to try to do things

    而是試圖做一些事情

  • that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,

    來防止我們墮入這些行為,

  • because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.

    因為我們因此可以創造大量的不良情況。

  • I do want to leave you with one positive thought.

    我想給你留下一個積極的意念。

  • I mean, this is all very depressing, right --

    我的意思是,這是非常令人沮喪的,對不對? --

  • people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.

    人的利益衝突,我們看不到它,等等。

  • The positive perspective, I think, of all of this

    在積極的角度來看,我認為,

  • is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,

    如果我們能理解我們何時錯了,

  • if we understand the deep mechanisms

    如果我們能了解為什麼

  • of why we fail and where we fail,

    我們失敗以及在哪裡失敗的深層機制,

  • we can actually hope to fix things.

    我們可以真正有希望解決事情。

  • And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.

    而我認為,這是希望。非常感謝你。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

So, I was in the hospital for a long time.

所以,我曾經在醫院過了一段很長的時間。

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A2 初級 中文 TED 傢伙 實驗 利益 衝突 扔掉

TED】Dan Ariely:小心利益衝突 (Beware conflicts of interest | Dan Ariely) (【TED】Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest (Beware conflicts of interest | Dan Ariely))

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    Ji-Jheng He 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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