to become the President-elect of the United States of America.

成為美國的新任總統當選人。

Trump's victory was unprecedented, unexpected, and for many on both sides of the political

川普的勝選始料未及，對於競選的兩派人馬來說，

spectrum, unbelievable.

更是難以置信。

Seemingly everything we thought we knew about polling, the media, and the population itself

這似乎顯示著，民調、媒體報導與對整體選民的認知

was wrong.

完全是錯誤的。

So how did Donald Trump win the 2016 Election?

到底川普是如何贏得這次的選舉?

Well, one major upset was the inability to predict which candidate each demographic would

無法預測不同人種族群支持川普或希拉蕊是主因。

prefer.

According to preliminary exit polls, Trump carried mostly white, male voters, while Clinton

根據初步票站調查結果，大部份白人及男性選民支持川普，

carried minority female voters.

希拉蕊則獲得少數民族及女性選民支持。

But a smaller proportion of white, black, hispanic, and asian-american voters cast their

但相較於2012年，今年更少白人、黑人、拉丁及亞裔選民投給民主黨，

ballots for the Democratic candidate in 2016 than in 2012, something polls were unable

這是民調無法預測的。

to predict.

Minority voters were expected to make up for Clinton's lower performance among white

多數民調預測少數團體的選民能平衡白人男性對柯林頓的低支持率，

male voters, especially following xenophobic, and arguably racist rhetoric from Trump.

特別是在川普表達仇外與種族歧視言論之後。

Clinton's inability to garner enough votes from these demographics is part of the reason

無法保住這些團體的票倉，

Clinton narrowly lost in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

輸掉一些關鍵的州別像威斯康辛州、賓夕凡尼亞洲和密西根州，是希拉蕊敗選的原因之一。

Since 1992 these states have been Democratic presidential strongholds, but they have large

從1992年開始，這些州一直是民主黨的大本營，

populations of rural and working class white voters, who make up a majority of Trump's

然而這些州有龐大的勞工階級的白人選民，是這次大選川普的主要支持者群。

base.

In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by seven points, whereas this year,

2012的總統大選，歐巴馬在威斯康辛的支持率比對手羅姆尼高出7個百分比，

Clinton lost by just a single point.

但今年柯林頓的支持率卻反比川普低了1個百分比。

Clinton's problem in 2016 was that she simply did not gather the democratic support she

柯林頓的問題是，她並沒有鞏固好票倉，

needed, while Trump's base stayed consistent.

川普卻在這點做得很好。

Between 2012 and 2016 nearly an identical number of Wisconsin voters, 1.4 million, voted

兩次總統大選中，威斯康辛州投給共和黨的選民人數皆為140萬人，但

Republican, while roughly a quarter of a million fewer people voted Democrat.

今年投給民主黨的人數卻比2012年少了約四分之一。

 When more people vote, Democrats tend to win, and in this election, more people didn't

當更多選民投票時，民主贏面較大。但在這次選舉中，多數人卻沒有投給民主黨。

vote Democrat.

In 2008, nearly ten million more voted democrat than Republican, in 2012 that number was down

2008年支持民主黨人數多於共和黨近1千萬，2012年降為6百萬，

to six million, and in 2016 the two parties had nearly the same number of voters, and

今年兩黨幾乎取得相同的票數，

Clinton even won the popular vote by about a quarter of a million.

希拉蕊只贏了約25萬的選票。

All the while, Republican votes have remained consistent throughout all three elections.

在此期間，共和黨有很穩固的票源與支持度。

It may be more accurate to say that Trump didn't win this election, so much as Clinton

不應該說穿普贏了這次選舉，而是說希拉蕊

lost it.

輸了比較正確。

One of the big reasons proposed for this low Democratic turnout is that Clinton simply

民主黨支持率低的另外一個原因，是希拉蕊

did not widely appeal to Democrat voters following the defeat of Bernie Sanders.

在民主黨總總候選人提名選舉擊敗桑德斯後，被沒有獲得桑德斯支持者青睞。

Many of those who did not support her in the primaries reported feeling coerced into voting

初選中不支持希拉蕊的人表示，他們不想基於

for her on the basis that she simply wasn't Trump.

「她不是川普」的原因而投給她。

States where Sanders won the primary, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, didn't see

總統大選中，希拉蕊沒有在一些初選中支持桑德斯的州獲得足夠票數，

the support Clinton needed to win in the general election.

像威斯康辛州和賓夕凡尼亞州。

 Many of the same rural, working class voters who cast their vote for Sanders may have been

許多支持桑德斯的鄉下與勞工階級選民

more inclined to vote for any outsider candidate rather than necessarily any Democrat.

傾向於投給其他非民主黨的候選人。

Those who voted for Bernie Sanders: white men, and millennials, went for Trump at higher

比起前一次選舉，更多支持桑德斯的白人男性與千禧年出生的選民投給川普。

rates than in previous elections.

Exit polls even show that more Democrats voted for Trump than Republicans voted Clinton.

票站調查結果甚至顯示，投給川普的民主黨選民比投給希拉蕊的共和黨派更多。

And while Clinton got more votes overall from minorities, millennials, and those making

雖然柯林頓依然有較多少數民族、千禧年與年收低於五萬的選民支持，

under $50,000 annually Trump was able to secure a larger portion of those demographics than

但川普在這幾類選民上，比起上一次選舉，保住更多的票源。

in previous elections.

The 2016 election was almost marked by extreme voter apathy, despite the volume of rhetoric

儘管選情沸沸揚揚，仍可感受到選民對這次大選的參與冷感。

in the lead up.

According to some reports, voter turnout was the lowest it has been since the 2000 election

根據一些報導，本次選舉投票率是自2000年來最低的一次，

with nearly half of all eligible voters abstaining.

有將近一半的選民未投票。

This election has proved wrong nearly every political model used to predict the winner.

這次選舉也推翻了幾乎每個用來預測贏家的決策模式。

Hillary Clinton put up a strong campaign, raised 1.3 billion dollars, and had some of

希拉蕊柯林頓斥資13億在造勢活動上，並擁有

the best media organization in history.

史上最強大的傳媒機構。

But in the face of a growing global populist movement, many have pointed to this election

但在面對全球日趨壯大的民粹運動，許多人將此次選舉

as a referendum on change.

視為公民投票的改變。

Unlike Obama, Clinton was unable to win over the support she needed, despite gaining more

整體來說，更多選民支持柯林頓，但她未能像歐巴馬，獲得足夠選票贏得這次選舉。

votes overall.

Ultimately, this election reflects a growing voice in the United States, whether it be

those disillusioned with the political system, those who feel disenfranchised within their

own party, and even the alt-right, which has devastated the GOP and longtime members such

as the Bush family.

But it also shows a change in the way presidential campaigns can be run.

但這也顯示總統競選的運作模式已經有所改變。

Although Trump's win is a surprise, it's the reality we all now live in.

川普當選是意料之外之事，但已既成現實。

So why did most polls show that will end up winning? As this reality sets in for the U.S. and beyond, millions are still shocked and asking how

this year's election predictions were so off.

Should we really be trusting polls as much as we have?

Why has polling accuracy declined so much?

Find out more in this video.

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