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  • ED O'KEEFE: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are racing the clock, polls are tightening,

  • the rhetoric's heating up, and voters just want it all to be over.

  • I'm Ed O'Keefe, in for Gwen Ifill, tonight on Washington Week.

  • PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: (From video.) I am not on the ballot. But I tell you what,

  • fairness is on the ballot. Decency's on the ballot. Justice is on the ballot.

  • Progress is on the ballot. Our democracy's on the ballot right now.

  • ED O'KEEFE: It's down to the wire.

  • Trump and Clinton are delivering closing arguments on why they should be president.

  • FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) If Donald Trump were to win

  • this election, we would have a commander in chief who is completely out of his depth and

  • whose ideas are incredibly dangerous.

  • Or maybe, heaven forbid, start a real war instead of just a Twitter war.

  • DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) Hillary has been there for 30 years.

  • And she has accomplished nothing. She's just made things worse. Look at her record.

  • ED O'KEEFE: National polls show the race tightening in the wake of Clinton's reignited

  • email controversy. The news has reinvigorated the Trump campaign.

  • DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) Our magnificent, historic movement has surprised the world

  • and defied expectations at every single turn.

  • MELANIA TRUMP: (From video.) He certainly knows how to shake things up, doesn't he? (Cheers.)

  • HILLARY CLINTON: (From video.) He has shown us who he is. Let us on Tuesday show him who we are. (Cheers.)

  • ED O'KEEFE: In the most unpredictable election in modern history it still comes down to

  • fundamentals - voter turnout and the battleground states. So which campaign could win it all?

  • We'll get answers and analysis from Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent for

  • The Washington Post; Josh Gerstein, senior White House correspondent for Politico; Alexis

  • Simendinger, White House correspondent for Real Clear Politics; and Manu Raju, senior

  • congressional correspondent for CNN.

  • ANNOUNCER: Award-winning reporting and analysis. Covering history as it happens.

  • Live from our nation's capital, this is Washington Week with Gwen Ifill. Once again,

  • from Washington, sitting in for Gwen Ifill this week, Ed O'Keefe of The Washington Post.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Good evening. The battleground blitz has begun.

  • Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are slugging it out as national polls show the race has

  • tightened dramatically since last Friday. That's when the FBI announced it was

  • revisiting Clinton's email investigation. Two weeks ago Clinton led Trump by

  • 6 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. That lead has dwindled to

  • just 2.4 percent this week in a four-way matchup. With that tight of a margin, both

  • candidates are fighting for every vote by going negative and spending millions of

  • dollars attacking each other's fitness to serve with ads like this.

  • ANNOUNCER: (From video.) Decades of lies, cover-ups and scandal have finally caught up

  • with Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is under FBI investigation again after her

  • emails were found on pervert Anthony Weiner's laptop. Think about that.

  • DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) She ate like a pig.

  • A person who is flat-chested, it is very hard to be a 10.

  • MR. : (From video.) Do you treat women with respect?

  • DONALD TRUMP: (From video.) I can't say that either.

  • MR. : (From video.) All right. Good. (Music.)

  • ED O'KEEFE: Now, whether these ads energize people or depress voter turnout, especially

  • when they air during a thrilling World Series, remains to be seen.

  • But, Karen, my gosh, is this how it's going to end?

  • KAREN TUMULTY: Well, you know, Ed, as you said in the intro, this is the wildest,

  • nastiest campaign in recent history. How else would it end? (Laughs.)

  • ED O'KEEFE: Right.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: But the fact is, a few weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was opening up

  • what was beginning to look like a comfortable lead, they were planning to sort of go

  • positive, to go a sort of higher altitude at this phase of the campaign, really be laying

  • out her vision of governing, laying the premise for how she would govern, maybe doing a

  • few things to lift up some of these Senate candidates.

  • Don't forget the Senate's also on the line here. But, yeah, these tightening poll

  • numbers - when you look at the map, Clinton still has a lot more ways to get to

  • that 270 electoral votes than Donald Trump does at this point. But it is a real race.

  • And that is why you're going to be seeing - they're both staying really heavily negative.

  • Who would have thought a closing argument ad would have had the word pervert in it?

  • ED O'KEEFE: Why did I know you were going to bring that up? (Laughter.)

  • KAREN TUMULTY: And, you know, it's just going to be slugging it out now through Tuesday.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Alexis, I think what was - to Karen's point, that they had hoped they could

  • end on a positive note. There was talk of, you know, what can she do to help congressional

  • candidates in Arizona and Georgia and Texas and places like - all that's out the window.

  • What she was doing this week, going from apologizing at the beginning of the week to now

  • talking again about Trump and really talking about him in ways that sort of are designed

  • to help the voter visualize what it would be like with him in the White House, that's a

  • pretty stark departure from what they were planning.

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: And stark is exactly the word that Secretary Clinton and her

  • number-one surrogate, President Obama, have been using, trying to paint these rhetorical

  • pictures for the base voters that they're trying to turn out.

  • And when I say "they," they are both working very intensively together, coordinating in

  • the states that really make a difference now coming down to the wire, because lots of

  • states do early voting, but we know that we're heading into states that do same-day

  • voting. And we're seeing them dive into those states - Pennsylvania, New Hampshire,

  • to some extent Michigan. And they're spending a lot of time this weekend with the

  • get out the vote efforts. So when we see Secretary Clinton talking about what

  • Donald Trump would be like as president, she's creating those pictures to women,

  • trying to describe what he's like with women, to African-American voters.

  • She has really created on the stump a dire picture of what Donald Trump has been on the

  • questions of race, talking about his endorsement from the KKK newspaper, for instance.

  • And so strategically you're exactly right, whether she's talking about him as a commander

  • in chief of what he would do with the power. President Obama has tried to describe

  • what he would do with the power that he has, arguing to the electorate that a man

  • who has the power before he's president will use it different ways as president.

  • MANU RAJU: And, Ed, it's not just - it's also a shift not just in the message but also

  • where they're spending their time ahead of - you know, when things were looking a lot

  • better for the Clinton campaign two weeks ago we were talking about they could possibly

  • flip Arizona, Georgia, Texas suddenly became a possibility - looked like a possibility.

  • But now it's all about maintaining that so-called blue wall of defense, making sure they

  • don't lose a Colorado. They really weren't paying much attention to Colorado, but

  • one poll has that state very close. Wisconsin, also a state that Trump was

  • spending heavily on in that state, and Clinton was sort of ignoring.

  • Now they have to pay attention to a state like Wisconsin. That has been real shift

  • in this campaign, and it suggests it's going to be very close come Tuesday.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: And there are, by the way, some constituencies they're worried about too.

  • They're seeing big surges in Latino voting, but African-American voting is not where they

  • hoped it would be.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Yeah. Clinton may be maintaining a lead nationally, but she is paying a

  • price for her decision to use a private email server when she was secretary of state.

  • The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Trump has an eight-point advantage over

  • Clinton on issues of honestly and trustworthiness. He leads 46 to 38 percent among likely

  • voters. Similarly, Trump holds a nine-point edge on dealing with government corruption, this

  • despite the fact that The Washington Post and other outlets have documented Trump's

  • history of questionable business practices, charitable donations, and, later this month,

  • there's a class-action lawsuit against Trump University set to begin. Manu, the Trump

  • campaign polls are one thing but the electoral map, as Karen pointed out, is another.

  • And there are much - well, there are fewer options really for Trump going forward.

  • MANU RAJU: There really are. I mean, that's the one thing that gives Democrats -

  • makes them feel a little bit better, because Donald Trump is going to have to

  • run the table in order to become the next president. That means flipping states like

  • Pennsylvania - a state that Republicans struggle in in a presidential election.

  • He's going to have to do that. Maybe they're spending some time in a state like Michigan.

  • He's going to have to, perhaps, turn a state like that. And also North Carolina, very

  • close right now. So Donald Trump has to do a lot of things right on Tuesday to win.

  • Winning those traditional battlegrounds, like a Florida and Ohio, but also turning some

  • of those other swing states that have been tilting towards Clinton in the last several

  • weeks and months. It's still going to be difficult, but certainly the momentum is

  • behind him because of this FBI investigation.

  • One poll to point out, in New Hampshire, 49 percent of likely voters - in a recent poll

  • in New Hampshire - said that they were concerned about this new FBI investigation and

  • said that they were less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. We'll see if that is -

  • play out nationally in other battleground states, but a cause of concern, for sure.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Well, good segue there.

  • Let's talk a little bit more about that FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton's private

  • email server, which came back online - pardon the pun - last week, and has rocked the

  • campaign ever since. The White House initially said it would neither defend nor

  • criticize FBI Director James Comey, but the president did just that on Wednesday

  • during an interview with NowThis News.

  • PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: (From video.) We don't operate on innuendo.

  • We don't operate on incomplete information. We don't operate on leaks.

  • ED O'KEEFE: So I can remember, Alexis, news conference after news conference where he

  • gets asked about some ongoing investigation, he says, well, I'm president and I oversee

  • the Justice Department and I really can't get involved. He took the bait here.

  • Is he venting frustration or what's going on?

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: He took the bait. In fact, after his spokesperson was like,

  • no, no, no, we're not going to go wading in here. But he did.

  • And I think the message was actually quite pointed, and it was considered a slap at

  • Director James Comey and the FBI in general where he was trying to suggest, in that

  • response, it would have been better - you know, if you read between the lines - if we had

  • all stuck to what had been the playbook or the protocol that had been, you know,

  • embraced. And I should mention, Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker, Democratic

  • leader in the House, and Chuck Schumer from New York both also weighed in on the

  • same day with a rebuke to Director Comey - direct.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Schumer, who really brought Comey to light - to the national stage the first

  • time, back when they had the attorneys firings. Josh Gerstein, about that FBI

  • investigation, when Comey testified over the summer to Congress he said his agency

  • is, quote, "resolutely apolitical." But this week, we have this mess he's in the

  • midst of. And then we learned that the FBI remained mum on the fact that it was

  • looking into Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager's ties to Russia.

  • Meanwhile, it seems that any of you who cover the FBI and the Justice Department are

  • easily getting phone calls returned from FBI personnel for the first time.

  • Has this agency been sucked into politics like never before?

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, I mean, Comey certainly is totally caught in the crossfire.

  • I mean, he's got people coming at him from both sides.

  • You know, to have the president of the United States criticize you even implicitly or

  • indirectly is not an easy thing for the FBI director. And then to have Republicans

  • on the other side criticizing him. And perhaps most worrisome for him is his own

  • rank and file. There's been this huge number of leaks about investigations, inquiries

  • into the Clinton Foundation being bottled up. And many people say there's a rebellion

  • in the ranks of the FBI, where people are feeling that some political pressure is

  • being put on from the top to shut down Clinton-related investigations.

  • They're not necessarily blaming Comey himself for that, but in some cases they are saying

  • he's acquiesced or the Justice Department has put that kind of pressure to shut down

  • these investigations. Of course, the Clinton folks say there's nothing substantive

  • for them to be investigating at all anyway.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Now, part of this you discovered, and you wrote today, might have to do with

  • the demographics of the FBI, right?

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, I think that could be a factor here.

  • I mean, the backlash that Comey is feeling for interfering, in their view, of some of

  • these agents, with the Clinton investigations, I think you have to look at what is the

  • likely political outlook of a lot of the FBI agents.

  • And when you see that they have a 67 percent white male workforce, an 80 percent white

  • workforce, that Comey himself has complained that the numbers have been sliding in a more

  • white male direction than they've been in the past. He's called it a crisis.

  • I think he was thinking more about them investigating crimes on the street, but now he

  • may be facing it as a kind of crisis that's contributing to the difficulties finding and

  • managing these very politically sensitive investigations.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Yeah, he gave a speech at Bethune-Cookman University over the summer where

  • he said: I've got nothing against white people, especially tall, awkward, male white

  • people - like himself, he said - but this is a crisis for reasons that you get, he was

  • saying to a predominantly African-American audience. And he's worried about it.

  • And I think you also wrote that if he were running for - if Trump were running for

  • president among just the FBI workforce, he'd run away with it, probably.

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Yeah, I think there's no question that he'd win handily, because their

  • workforce right now doesn't look like America.

  • And Comey's acknowledged that he knows that's a big problem for them in the long run.

  • I don't think he realized what problem it would be for him in the short run.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: Although, you've got - ED O'KEEFE: Go ahead.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: You've got to wonder the implications if Hillary Clinton is elected in

  • this relationship.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Yeah, absolutely. And we'll get into that in a moment.

  • As unconventional and unpredictable as this election has been, it's again coming down to

  • the same old battleground states - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and the Tar

  • Heel state of North Carolina. Can either candidate, Karen, expand the map at this point?

  • KAREN TUMULTY: Donald Trump still believes - is still arguing, at least, his campaign

  • is, that they can flip some states, that, again, Pennsylvania has not been friendly to

  • Republicans. If he could do that in Pennsylvania there's, you know, a reasonable

  • chance that he could do it in other parts of the industrial Midwest as well.

  • The other place that he is still saying, against all evidence of early voting, but where

  • he's still saying he has a chance is Nevada. He's going there this weekend.

  • That was a surprising move, I think, to a lot of people. Donald Trump has no

  • choice but to play offense on this map. And New Hampshire, another state.

  • That one looks like it's right on the edge.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Are they - I mean, there's some public polling.

  • But do we get any sense that they're seeing something we're not when it comes to this?

  • I mean, we've seen this song and dance before. We saw it in '08.

  • McCain claimed that there was a chance. Romney spent his last hours of

  • Election Day in Pennsylvania. But is there something we're not seeing?

  • MANU RAJU: I think it's going to be really - the polling, it's going to be really

  • interesting to see how right and how wrong pollsters have been.

  • It's very hard, I think, in this electorate to determine who's going to be a likely

  • voter, especially with a lot of the people not very enthusiastic about their choices and

  • who's actually going to come out to the polls come Election Day.

  • But I think if you look at the early voting numbers that gives you some indication about

  • where things are going. And giving some cause for alarm among Democrats,

  • because some of those numbers are down compared to past election cycles.

  • So in that regard, we're getting a sense that maybe things are looking a little bit

  • better for Donald Trump. But at the same time, just because we know which parties

  • have come out to vote, who's registered to vote, maybe they're voting for the other

  • side. Maybe some Republicans are voting for Hillary Clinton because they're unnerved

  • by Donald Trump. We just don't know yet.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: Or with so many more people early voting, in a lot of states the vast

  • majority of the votes are going to be in before Election Day.

  • We don't really know if these early votes are indications of what Election Day voting is

  • going to be like or maybe people who originally in past elections voted on Election Day

  • are just moving and voting in a different pattern.

  • It's really hard to read what that vote really means.

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: And this was one of the things that was puzzling when Trump started

  • suggesting that people who had voted early might want to go out - who had voted early for

  • Clinton - might want to go out and change their votes.

  • I mean, you would think that most early voters are going to be the most enthusiastic

  • backers that just can't wait - they're waiting at 9:00 a.m. when the early voting

  • center opens to get in there and cast their ballot. Whether they're going to run to

  • change their mind, I'm a little doubtful that that's an effective strategy.

  • ED O'KEEFE: One of the things that we're watching, all of us, of course, is the

  • potential for shenanigans. The Justice Department is planning on sending poll

  • monitors down to North Carolina. Remind us what exactly they're going to be doing.

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Well, there's different states, they're able to do different things.

  • They can monitor just about anywhere. To observe, they actually have to have

  • special permission to get in and see if people are being denied voting, if people

  • have complaints, if there are problems with the voter rolls.

  • But the total number of Justice Department observers has been cut dramatically because of

  • a Supreme Court decision a few years ago that covered the Voting Rights Act and cut out a

  • significant section of the Voting Rights Act. So they're more limited in what they

  • could do than in past years. But there's also a lot of litigation going on that

  • doesn't directly involve the Justice Department.

  • There's at least five lawsuits Democrats have filed this week, mostly in these same swing

  • states, going after Donald Trump's campaign, Roger Stone, this Trump backer, and his

  • Stop the Steal effort, saying that they're going to try to intimidate voters at the

  • polls. And on Friday, Friday evening, they were able to actually get an injunction barring

  • that kind of intimidation in Ohio. And it might actually apply in other states as well.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada were the three others?

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Nevada and North Carolina as well.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Hey, Alexis, real quick, I know the Clinton campaign is now touting what

  • it's calling the Clinton coalition. ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: Yes.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Quickly, what does it include?

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: The Clinton coalition or the Hillary coalition begins with Latinos,

  • it goes into Asian-Americans, which is interesting, talks about Millennials and suburban

  • women, and then African-Americans come at the end of this list that we were hearing about

  • today. So the campaign is talking about a base of voters - I mean, the point of this is

  • to say that it's not quite the same as Barack Obama's base, and very much represents, as

  • far as Democrats are concerned, not just the blue wall, but the future of what the

  • electorate is going to look like in more and more states.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Because we've got explosive early vote turnout among Hispanics.

  • Explosive was a word I saw people using earlier today to describe it in Florida - Central

  • Florida and South Florida - Arizona, right? Nevada?

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: Nevada. ED O'KEEFE: And to some extent North Carolina.

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: Exactly. And the Clinton campaign today was eager to try to

  • tell reporters about what it's seeing that Karen was describing in early voting.

  • More than 35 million people have voted early.

  • But based on the analysis that they can do inside the campaigns, what they're arguing is

  • that Donald Trump - there has been no obvious surge of this kind of early banking of

  • votes, your own coalition, in which they can, you know, say mathematically, for instance

  • in Nevada, that he - they're arguing he would have to do 10 points better than Hillary

  • Clinton in Nevada to win Nevada.

  • And that's, you know, one of the arguments they're trying to make.

  • ED O'KEEFE: And there's - he's really - there's no reason to believe he can make that up

  • at this point, given the way things are -

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: Well, unless there is just an enormous number of secret Nevada

  • voters who - you know, I mean, they're just saying mathematically you can't do it.

  • So that's why watching these states it's not just the polling but that ground game is so

  • important to watch.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Manu, Trump has spent a lot of time in Ohio, but has also made plays this

  • week, as you mentioned, for Michigan and Wisconsin. Do they see Ohio as wrapped up?

  • MANU RAJU: I think that they have a very good chance in Ohio. The demographics

  • certainly are helping him. His issue on trade and railing on bad trade deals.

  • And down ticket Rob Portman, the Senate candidate - the senator, has sort of wrapped up

  • his race, in some ways helping Donald Trump on Rob Portman's own coattails.

  • That is probably one of the states in the - in the Rust Belt that Donald Trump is

  • probably best positioned to win right now. I think Michigan and Pennsylvania will

  • be a lot - much more up for grabs, a lot harder for Donald Trump. But certainly right

  • now there's a good feeling within the Trump world that they could win that state.

  • ED O'KEEFE: But regardless of who wins, both candidates will have to try and reunite a

  • nation divided by polarization in their own parties, here in Washington, and among voters

  • nationally. And, guys, in our remaining moments, I think it's important to acknowledge

  • that, that come Wednesday/Thursday things are going to be just as bad and divisive as

  • they have been. I wanted to start on the Hill. A lame duck begins later this month.

  • They go into a new Congress. And there's no reason to believe it's going to get much better.

  • MANU RAJU: I think it'll be very hard to get anything done by the new president, because

  • if you look at the House and the Senate, no matter who's in charge it's going to be a

  • narrow majority, maybe even a 50-50 Senate, and in the House, a very narrow majority in

  • the House. And what does that mean? That means that, particularly on the Senate

  • side, you're going to need 60 votes to get anything done.

  • You need to get bipartisan support to get things done.

  • And that's going to require a lot of leadership from both sides.

  • And the challenge for the - for the Democrats is that they're going to - in the Senate,

  • they are going to have a number of red-state Democrats who are up for reelection in 2018

  • who, if Hillary Clinton is president, are going to be running away from Hillary Clinton.

  • So a very - and you're already talking about - Republicans are already talking about

  • launching investigation after investigation against Hillary Clinton if she were to win.

  • So I think we're going to see a lot of warfare in the new Congress.

  • ED O'KEEFE: If Trump wins, he's the head of a fractured Republican Party.

  • If Trump loses, he's the former nominee of a fractured Republican Party.

  • KAREN TUMULTY: I think if Trump wins it's now his party.

  • I think he's the dominant figure. If he loses, a lot of it's going to be the margin.

  • If it's a resounding loss, then the anti-Trump forces can say, you know, we were right.

  • If it's narrow, there's going to be a lot of recriminations.

  • ED O'KEEFE: And, real quick, if either - win or lose, both of them are going to be under

  • an ethical cloud.

  • JOSH GERSTEIN: Oh, there's no question about that. There's going to be litigation

  • continuing. Hillary Clinton's going to continue to be under this FBI investigation,

  • we expect, agents poking around the Clinton Foundation. And Donald Trump, you know,

  • he has 14 women he's promised to sue for defaming him, and they've said they'll

  • counter-sue him. There's the Trump University case that you mentioned that's going

  • forward. So there's a huge hangover for either of them after this election.

  • ED O'KEEFE: And, real quick, during the final months of his presidency, is there

  • anything President Obama can do?

  • ALEXIS SIMENDINGER: Well, you mentioned the lame duck. You know, the president is

  • trying to do as much as he can through executive action, but he would still like to

  • see Supreme Court or TPP, which is trade, and forget that. Those two are not happening.

  • ED O'KEEFE: Well, that's it for now, but the conversation continues on the Washington

  • Week Extra, where we'll talk about Paul Ryan's future as speaker of the House and Melania

  • Trump's announcement that she will make cyber bullying a priority issue if she becomes

  • first lady. And while you're online, find out why not all write-in votes may count in

  • this election. Regardless of which candidate you support, exercise your right to vote.

  • Vote early. Vote next Tuesday, November 8th.

  • Then come home and tune in to PBS NewsHour's coverage of Election 2016.

  • Oh, and please don't forget, turn back your clocks on Saturday night.

  • Enjoy that extra sleep. I'm Ed O'Keefe. Have a good night.

ED O'KEEFE: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are racing the clock, polls are tightening,

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2016年選舉的最後幾天 (The Final Days of Election 2016)

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