there are some things you like about one option and some things you like about the other?

但每個選項各有你喜歡的特色

Of course you have.

一定有！

Now think of all the organizations out there trying to create successful products and services,

想想看,所有公司都試著要創造成功的產品與服務

not to mention sell them at just the right price. It's a complex, competitive world,

更別說以最好的價格販售,這是個複雜且競爭的世界

and many managers are just making educated guesses about how best to appeal to consumers.

許多經理只靠專業知識來判斷什麼樣的產品最能吸引消費者

Well, there's a proven approach for these product and service providers. It's called

有個經證實的方法能為企業所用

conjoint analysis.

叫做聯合分析(conjoint analysis)

So what is conjoint analysis, and what can it do for you?

什麼是聯合分析,它對你又有什麼幫助呢？

Conjoint analysis is a marketing insight technique for predicting how products you create or

聯合分析是一個市場洞察技術,能預見你創造或重新設計的產品

re-design should perform when taken to market.

進入市場後的表現

Companies win over consumers by putting in the right features and charging the right

企業藉由產品特色與合理價格贏得消費者的青睞

price. For example, smartphone manufacturers are packing more and more capabilities into

例如,手機製造商讓一支小小的手機的功能愈來愈多樣

these tiny devices, with billions of dollars at stake if they get the right combinations

如果產品特色與價格深得人心

of features and price.

便是數十億的投資

Hotels and resorts fine-tune their facilities and service levels to appeal to specific target

飯店與景點調整其設施與服務等級去迎合不同的消費者群

markets, such as business travelers or luxury vacationers.

像是出差的人或度假的人

Consumer packaged goods companies tweak their packaging, flavors, and nutritional contents

消費者食品包裝公司推出不同包裝,口味與食材原料

to appeal to new market segments and create successful line extensions.

去吸引新的市場區塊,成功延伸產品線

Next let's consider Jane, who works for a company that manufacturers bazoogles.

假設 Jane 為一家製造 「bazoogle」 的公司工作

A rival company across town came out with a new bazoogle and Jane's sales have gone

對面小鎮上的另一家公司推出新型的bazoogle

in the wrong direction. Now, she's got a crisis on her hands.

讓 Jane 的業績一路下滑,眼前有個問題待她解決

Bazoogles can have 2 to 4 snozzles, large or small monitors, and varying levels of noise,

Bazoogle可有兩到四個軟管,大或小的螢幕,聲音的大小不同

zoinks and whizbangs.

成品zoink與whizbang等級也不同(Zoink為「令人驚艷」的感嘆語,whizbang則有「成功」的意思)

The problem is, there are 1000s of combinations of features, and Jane needs to come up with

問題在於,產品特色可以有上千種組合,而Jane必須想出對的組合

the right combination at the right price to regain market share.

並以合理的價格贏回市場佔有率

Jane has some ideas that she could concept test among a sample of potential customers.

Jane想到她能在一群消費者中執進行概念測試

She could describe potential bazoogles and ask potential customers to tell her how much

向消費者介紹數個新版本的 bazoogle

they would like to buy each one.

並詢問他們對每台機器的購買意願

Of course, she doesn't have enough time, money, or customers to do enough of these

當然她並沒有足夠的時間、金錢與消費者

concept tests.

讓她執行概念測試

What she really needs is a smarter, more scientific way to test the thousands of possible bazoogles

她真正需要的是用更聰明、更科學的概念測試方法去測試上千台bazoogle

to find the optimal one. That's where conjoint analysis comes in.

並找出一台最具市場潛力的,這就要用到聯合分析了

To start, Jane does some research so she can list the key attributes and levels of her

一開始,Jane做了些研究,把關鍵的特色列出

and her competitors' bazoogles.

也要比較公司的機器與競爭對手機器的等級

For example, a bazoogle could have 3 snozzles, a small monitor, high noise, and shoot out

例如,一台機器可以有三個管口,一台小螢幕, 高頻聲音

30 zoinks per minute.

每分鐘能產出三十個成品

Conjoint analysis software systematically combines the features from Jane's list to

聯合分析軟體能系統性地從Jane的清單中結合這些特色

show competing bazoogles at different prices. Consumers simply pick one from each scenario,

展現這幾個新版本機器不同的價格,消費者則從中擇一

much like they'd do in the real world. You can see why it's often called discrete choice

就如在現實生活購買一樣,由此得知為何這種分析法叫做

analysis.

「離散選擇分析」(藉此預測消費者喜好與產品上市後的狀況)

Across a sample of respondents, numerous combinations are shown and the software keeps track of

顧客的回覆中,可以看見許多組合, 軟體則會追蹤

how often different features were chosen at different prices when offered on different

當不同機器擁有不同特色與價格時

bazoogles.

消費者的選擇是什麼

Using statistical analysis, the software estimates preference scores for each consumer in the

利用數據分析,軟體估計每個消費者對於樣品的偏好分數

sample. Combinations of features that are chosen a lot get high utility scores.

愈多人選擇的結合特色其應用分數愈高

In essence, conjoint analysis has taken a snapshot of each consumer's brain and derived

總之,聯合分析就像是取得每個消費者的大腦快照

a statistic model that quantifies the preferences that lead them to choose different bazoogles

得出數據模型,紀錄數量與偏好如何影響消費者選擇不同的機器

and pay for them the way they do.

並且願意掏錢購買

It's almost like Jane has captured 100s of virtual consumers with their decision-making

這些資訊如同讓Jane得到上百個虛擬消費者的購買原則

rules within the software on her computer.

背後功臣就是這個軟體

She's now got a what-if market simulator that acts like a voting machine for bazoogles.

她現在得到的是市場的情況模擬,如同得到產品bazoogle的投票機

She can specify any of 1000s of potential bazoogles in her conjoint analysis software,

利用聯合分析軟體,她能指定一千多個任何候選機器

and the virtual consumers' will vote on those potential bazoogles versus her competitors'.

讓虛擬消費者去投票,看是自家產品還是對手的能勝出

Better yet, if Jane knew something about the cost of manufacturing the features, the software

更棒的是,如果她對做出產品特色的成本有些瞭解

could search all potential bazoogles to find the one that's likely to beat the competition

軟體能搜尋所有的候選機器,找出勝算大的

and maximize profit.

並獲得最大利益

Most any time people face decisions among different options made up of conjoined features,

大多數時候我們都會面臨不同特色結合的不同選項

you could develop key insights into consumer choice using conjoint analysis. As you can

利用聯合分析就能深入了解消費者的選擇

imagine, the potential applications are numerous.

你可以想像,軟體的應用相當廣泛

And if you want to make more than one version of your product to target distinct market

如果你想做出符合不同市場區隔的產品

segments, conjoint analysis helps you do that too.

聯合分析也派得上用場

Conjoint analysis is unlike common survey approaches that try to ask respondents what's

一般的調查方法是詢問消費者

important in a product and how much they're willing to pay.

最注重產品的哪個方面以及心中合理的價格

Instead, respondents choose from realistic product options like they would in the real world.

聯合分析則不同 ,它給予消費者從實際產品選項中做選擇，就如他們在現實生活中購物一樣

The most commonly used conjoint analysis approach today is Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC).

現在最常見的聯合分析是CBC模型(基於選擇的分析模型,又稱離散分析模型)

It's based on the some of the same theories that won Dr. Dan McFadden the Nobel Prize

這個模型是奠基於Dan McFadden博士的一些相同理論

in Economics.

他因這些理論成為諾貝爾經濟學獎得主

We hope this presentation has helped to explain some basics of conjoint analysis and show

我們希望這部影片能幫助你們了解聯合分析的基本概念

how it can benefit those trying to create the right product at the right price for consumers.

以及利用其得出最具價值的產品與合理價格的效益

If you'd like to learn more about conjoint analysis, feel free to visit us at SawtoothSoftware.com.

如果你想更加了解聯合分析,歡迎上SawtoothSoftware.com.