Name: 馬爾科姆-格拉德威爾 - 意大利麵醬（17分鐘 (Malcolm Gladwell - Spaghetti Sauce (17 minutes))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T04:25:35.000Z
Duration: 17 min 34 s
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基礎被動語態

I think I was supposed to talk about my new book, which is called "Blink," and it's about

snap judgments and first impressions. And it comes out in January, and I hope you all

轉承詞

buy it in triplicate. But I was thinking about this, and I realized that although my new

book makes me happy, and I think would make my mother happy, it's not really about happiness.

So I decided instead, I would talk about someone who I think has done as much to make Americans

happy as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years. A man who is a great personal hero of mine.

Someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz, who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce.

Howard's about this high, and he's round, and he's in his sixties, and he has big huge

glasses and thinning grey hair, and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality,

and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera, and he's a great aficionado of medieval history.

And by profession, he's a psychophysicist. Now, I should tell you that I have no idea

what psychophysics is, although at some point in my life, I dated a girl for two years who

was getting her doctorate in psychophysics. Which should tell you something about that

relationship. (Laughter) As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring

things. And Howard is very interested in measuring things. And he graduated with his doctorate

from Harvard, and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York. And one of

his first clients was -- this is many years ago, back in the early '70s -- one of his

first clients was Pepsi. And Pepsi came to Howard and they said, "You know, there's this

new thing called aspartame, and we would like to make Diet Pepsi. We'd like you to figure

out how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi, in order to have the perfect

drink." Right? Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer, and that's

what Howard thought. Because Pepsi told him, "Look, we're working with a band between eight

and 12 percent. Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough, anything above

12 percent sweetness is too sweet. We want to know, what's the sweet spot between eight

and 12?" Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it's very simple. What

we do, is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi, at every degree of sweetness -- eight

percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, all the way up to 12 -- and we try this out with thousands of

people, and we plot the results on a curve, and we take the most popular concentration.

Right? Really simple. Howard does the experiment, and he gets the

data back, and he plots it on a curve, and all of a sudden he realizes it's not a nice

bell curve. In fact, the data doesn't make any sense. It's a mess. It's all over the

place. Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such, are

not dismayed when the data comes back a mess. They think, well, you know, figuring out what

people think about cola's not that easy. You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along

the way. You know, let's just make an educated guess, and they simply point and they go for

10 percent, right in the middle. Howard is not so easily placated. Howard is a man of

a certain degree of intellectual standards. And this was not good enough for him, and

this question bedeviled him for years. And he would think it through and say, what was

wrong? Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi?

And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains, about to go trying to dream

up some work for NescafE. And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him.

And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data, they were asking the wrong question.

They were looking for the perfect Pepsi, and they should have been looking for the perfect

Pepsis. Trust me. This was an enormous revelation. This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs

in all of food science. And Howard immediately went on the road, and he would go to conferences

around the country, would stand up and he would say, "You had been looking for the perfect

Pepsi. You're wrong. You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis." And people would

look at him with a blank look, and they would say, "What are you talking about? This is

craziness." And they would say, you know, "Move! Next!" Tried to get business, nobody

would hire him -- he was obsessed, though, and he talked about it and talked about it

and talked about it. Howard loves the Yiddish expression "to a worm in horseradish, the

world is horseradish." This was his horseradish. (Laughter) He was obsessed with it!

And finally, he had a breakthrough. Vlasic Pickles came to him, and they said, "Mr. Moskowitz

-- Doctor Moskowitz -- we want to make the perfect pickle." And he said, "There is no

perfect pickle, there are only perfect pickles." And he came back to them and he said, "You

don't just need to improve your regular, you need to create zesty." And that's where we

got zesty pickles. Then the next person came to him, and that was Campbell's Soup. And

this was even more important. In fact, Campbell's Soup is where Howard made his reputation.

Campbell's made Prego, and Prego, in the early '80s, was struggling next to Ragu, which was

the dominant spaghetti sauce of the '70s and '80s. Now in the industry -- I don't know

whether you care about this, or how much time I have to go into this. But it was, technically

speaking -- this is an aside -- Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragu. The quality

of the tomato paste is much better, the spice mix is far superior, it adheres to the pasta

in a much more pleasing way. In fact, they would do the famous bowl test back in the

'70s with Ragu and Prego. You'd have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right?

And the Ragu would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top. That's called

"adherence." And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence,

and the quality of their tomato paste, Prego was struggling.

So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us. And Howard looked at their product line,

and he said, what you have is a dead tomato society. So he said, this is what I want to

do. And he got together with the Campbell's soup kitchen, and he made 45 varieties of

spaghetti sauce. And he varied them according to every conceivable way that you can vary

tomato sauce. By sweetness, by level of garlic, by tartness, by sourness, by tomatoey-ness,

by visible solids -- my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business. (Laughter) Every

conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce, he varied spaghetti sauce. And then he took

this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces, and he went on the road. He went to New York,

he went to Chicago, he went to Jacksonville, he went to Los Angeles. And he brought in

people by the truckload. Into big halls. And he sat them down for two hours, and he gave

them, over the course of that two hours, ten bowls. Ten small bowls of pasta, with a different

spaghetti sauce on each one. And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to

100, how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was.

At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months, he had a mountain of

data about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce. And then he analyzed the

data. Now, did he look for the most popular brand variety of spaghetti sauce? No! Howard

doesn't believe that there is such a thing. Instead, he looked at the data, and he said,

let's see if we can group all these different data points into clusters. Let's see if they

congregate around certain ideas. And sure enough, if you sit down, and you analyze all

this data on spaghetti sauce, you realize that all Americans fall into one of three

groups. There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain, there are people who like their

spaghetti sauce spicy and there are people who like it extra chunky.

And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant. Because at the time,

in the early 1980s, if you went to a supermarket, you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti

sauce. And Prego turned to Howard, and they said, "You telling me that one third of Americans

crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce and yet no one is servicing their needs?" And he said

yes! (Laughter) And Prego then went back, and completely reformulated their spaghetti

sauce, and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely took over

the spaghetti sauce business in this country. And over the next 10 years, they made 600

million dollars off their line of extra-chunky sauces.

And everyone else in the industry looked at what Howard had done, and they said, "Oh my

god! We've been thinking all wrong!" And that's when you started getting seven different kinds

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馬爾科姆-格拉德威爾 - 意大利麵醬（17分鐘 (Malcolm Gladwell - Spaghetti Sauce (17 minutes))

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