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A clutch of new central bank governors are settling into their seats, or about to, from Australia and India, to Malaysia and Turkey
but do investors care about them anymore?
There was a time when these appointments would move markets and have longer-term consequences, but in a world of ultra-low interest rates
do these great and serious people make any difference?
Monetary policy best operates when central banks are doing different things, rather than all following the same herd instinct
When policies differ, and one central bank cuts rates while another raises them, then capital is on the move, but now, central banks look incapacitated
It is the unintended consequence of the G20 meeting of policy makers in Shanghai in February,
when they all accepted the need to avoid competitive currency devaluations in order to calm some volatile markets
Now, markets are so calm and volatility so low that central banks worry that a slight policy tweak will have too big a market impact
Who would've thought at the start of the year that the Fed, which was then plotting four rate hikes for 2016, would become so allergic to the idea of a stronger dollar?
It means some markets are looking bubbly
Is this year's rally in emerging markets FX really a sensible affirmative bet, or one based on a lack of meaningful alternatives?
And is the idea of fiscal stimulus as a solution to global low growth being floated around, simply because nothing else seems to work
At least there is one voice bucking the trend
The San Francisco Fed chief John Williams last week said that the Fed needed to think out of the box, and raise its inflation target in order to give it more room for maneuver
Now, central bank governors, whether they are incoming or incumbent, will welcome that
After all, the Fed is paralyzing them
What's more important, their own data or the data coming out of the US?
Now investors know the answer to that. They would like to care what the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India says, but they have little reason to look beyond the Fed
We used to talk about globalization and interdependence
Strange then, dependent on one set of policymakers, the world has now become
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【金融時報】央行總裁的影響力有多大?(How influential are central bank governors | Short View)

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Chloe Tyan 發佈於 2016 年 8 月 25 日    Chloe Tyan 翻譯    Kristi Yang 審核
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