Stop this if you feel like you've heard this one before,

你可以跳過這段影片，如果你覺得你已經看過類似的東西了

but sterling is feeling the heat

但是英鎊現在狀況不太好

as momentum for a fresh leg lower appears to be building.

蓄勢待跌

The currency was, of course, slammed by the result of the UK's EU referendum in June.

英鎊當然因為六月的英國脫歐公投結果而遭受重創

After some underwhelming mini recoveries it's slumped again last week

經過一些疲弱的小恢復之後，英鎊在上個禮拜又重重跌了一跤

as the Bank of England unleashed its latest package of stimulus.

因為英國銀行開始了最新的經濟刺激措施

This week, you guessed it, it's taking a new blow,

這個禮拜，是的，英鎊又受到重擊

sinking back under $1.30 to the dollar.

對美金匯率重新跌到 1:1.3

Normally, traders and investors balk at bets that are too obvious,

一般來說，交易員跟投資者對太過明顯的賭注會遲疑不前

but this doesn't seem to be the case this time.

但是這次情況似乎不是這樣的

Pushing this along, the Fed is expected to raise rates again as soon as December,

讓情況更糟的還有聯準會的動作，他們準備最快在十二月再一次升息

maybe even sooner,

甚至更早

while the Bank of England is not expected to raise rates for some 70 months.

而英國銀行在未來的七十幾個月應該都不會升息

That makes it just a no-brainer to sell the pound.

因此在這個時候賣英鎊絕對不是明智之舉

Many punters were already doing just that.

不少投機者早就開始這麼做了

Data drawing on activity in the future's market

研究未來市場活動的資料顯示

shows that bets against sterling were already at record levels in the week to last Tuesday.

賭英鎊會貶值的賭注在到上個禮拜二的前一個禮拜已經達到了歷史新高

But, currency hedge funds more broadly did not appear to be committed.

但是廣泛來看，貨幣對沖基金似乎並沒有受到影響

Their returns have been under pressure for most of this year

它們的收益在今年大部分的時候都是偏低的

and they're still under pressure now,

而它們現在仍然是如此的

suggesting that some are still sitting back, sharpening their claws and waiting for a new opportunity to pounce.

顯示某些投資者仍然坐山觀虎鬥，摩拳擦掌等著下一個出手的機會

And there seems no reason to pull back from their assessments

而現在看來他們對於英鎊對美元即將跌至 $1.25，明年甚至有可能跌至低於 $1.1 的判斷

that the pounds in line could fall the mid-$1.20s against the dollar and possibly as low as $1.10 through next year.

似乎是沒有錯的

There could be some excessive post-referendum pessimism at play here,

造成英鎊跌勢的原因之一可能是公投後市場過度的悲觀

but no influential analysts or investors have presented a case for buying since... well, June 22.

但是自從...... 嗯...... 六月二十二日之後就沒有大咖的分析師或投資者提出交易需求

This may of course prove to be part of the solution by helping exports,

這個當然最後可能會是幫助出口的其中一個方案

something the BOE has alluded to

這也是英國銀行所暗自希望的

but new trade figures show that imports remain much larger,

但是新的交易數字顯示進口數仍然高過出口數非常多

and in the month of June they grew much more than exports.

而且六月的進口成長幅度也遠超過出口

The price tag will keep growing on that unless the trade mix alters fast.

除非貿易結過快速改變，不然物價將會持續上升