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  • We were gonna get to Cuba, and we ran out of time,

  • and I know you want to disagree with me, and you don't even know

  • what I'm gonna say.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • Well, I want to hear what you have to say.

  • Well, I mean, I think I said it in the monologue.

  • We have... or somewhere in this show, we have stood

  • with worse dictators. I think Cuba,

  • in the Freedom Watch List is 62nd out of 177 countries,

  • one being the worst. So, it's behind China,

  • I think Iran, Egypt,

  • which is not a great place to be, but it's ahead

  • of a number of our allies like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

  • So, I guess where I'm coming from is that the United States

  • has all of the leverage in this situation,

  • and if you're looking at what Raul Castro's plan is,

  • I believe the plan is not to do what China and Vietnam

  • have done. Not to have a... kind of... you know,

  • basically move away from a socialist economy.

  • I believe they're looking to Vladimir Putin.

  • They're looking to Chavez's Venezuela.

  • They want to have sham elections,

  • and he wants to install his son or his son-in-law in power,

  • and we're allowing that to happen.

  • Now, we have all the leverage, I believe we should open up

  • to Cuba, and I believe we should normalize relations--

  • BILL: What do you mean, leverage?

  • We can demand a lot more because they're at the most

  • vulnerable point.

  • This is what's been going on for 50 years.

  • No, it hasn't been going on because what I'm saying

  • is that actually we should open up, but we can now

  • demand more from them in terms of how they treat their citizens

  • and also having an open and competitive

  • -political process. -But these things take time.

  • -Of course it takes time. -It's weak... its weak--

  • But we're never gonna have more leverage

  • than we do right now.

  • They used to look to Russia and Venezuela for cash.

  • -Exactly, they can't. -Now they can't.

  • -They're 90 miles away -Exactly, that's leverage.

  • from the world's largest economy and if they open the door

  • a little crack, we're gonna overwhelm them.

  • -BILL: And they're doing that. -I feel very comfortable

  • -that in 5 years' time, -Yes.

  • these guys are goners. Five to ten years of sanctions,

  • -get them there. -SALAM: That's a fantasy.

  • -Yeah, I totally agree. -(APPLAUSE)

  • He went... the President went, he looked at Raul Castro,

  • -he spoke to the Cuban people -I understand that.

  • He talked about democracy, I mean, that's the first time--

  • The Castro family, they're not idiots.

  • They know what they're doing.

  • They have given this a lot of thought,

  • and if they believe that Ian was right...

  • -And they're in their 80's. -They have a plan B,

  • that's my point. Their plan B is sham elections.

  • In 2018, it's all ready to go.

  • But you know, we can't make everybody in the world

  • -do everything we want to do. -SALAM: We've got leverage.

  • Of course we can't.

  • Of course we can make everyone do--

  • -Of course we can't. -Oh.

  • Of course we can't, but the point is,

  • that why surrender all of your leverage when they're

  • at their weakest point right now.

  • -We're not surrendering -SALAM: Of course we are.

  • all our leverage. We're trying--

  • GRANHOLM: It's a benefit for us, too.

  • Yeah, it's a slight benefit for us.

  • -We are scaling so much larger. -We're trying a different tactic

  • from the one that didn't work for 60 fuckin' years.

  • -(APPLAUSE) -What a crazy idea.

  • The tactic is we have one big carrot to offer

  • that is normalizing relationships

  • and actually offering them the huge economic opportunities

  • -that an open relationship-- -Ending the embargo

  • -would be another big carrot. -SALAM: Yeah.

  • But we're not doing that

  • even though most Americans are for doing that.

  • Normalizing relations is a rather big thing

  • and having Starwood and having Airbnb sign deals

  • and getting hard currency into the hands of the repressive

  • -apparatus of Cuba. -Yes, that's how their minds

  • are gonna change. Starwood's gonna be there. They're gonna

  • -meet Americans. -And that's worked

  • in Putin's Russia? That's worked, you know,

  • that's gonna work in Iran? That's gonna work

  • in all the other authoritarian countries

  • where they've figured out they're smart, too, Bill.

  • They are strategic, too. They've given this some thought

  • and they think that they're gonna come out ahead,

  • and I think they're probably right.

  • BILL: All right. All right.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • With that said, do any of you have

  • a good cigar connect because I just started...

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • CORY: This is a man who talks to what I care about.

  • What are the chances of delegates turning on Trump

  • if there is a brokered convention in July?

  • I think pretty good, right?

  • GRANHOLM: I think pretty good, too.

  • Yeah, I mean it depends on who those delegates are.

  • They're working them now.

  • I mean everybody on the other team's

  • -are working those delegates. -BILL: Are you a super delegate?

  • I am not a super delegate, and I wouldn't be on that side,

  • but I know that they are working that.

  • -For the Democrats. -No.

  • You're not a super delegate?

  • I used to be when I was governor,

  • but I'm not anymore.

  • -Are you a delegate? -I'm not a delegate, no.

  • -You're just watching on TV. -I'm just a regular citizen.

  • -Wow, I'm very surprised. -(LAUGHTER)

  • Will the new voter ID laws being introduced in key states

  • across the country influence the outcome of the election?

  • -Fuck yes. Of course. -Yes, like it did in Arizona's.

  • Everybody who was watching that five hour--

  • -BILL: Wasn't that a fiasco? -Total fiasco.

  • They went from 200 polling sites to 60

  • in a heavily Latino county.

  • People had to wait in line for 5 hours.

  • Wouldn't it be great if the Supreme Court

  • just once went, "Eh. We got this wrong."

  • We gutted the Voting Rights Act. We thought America was better

  • than it was, and it turned out

  • we could not have been more wrong.

  • Is there any argument on the other side?

  • The problem is that when we talk about voter ID laws

  • you've got very different laws in different states.

  • Some of those laws, Pennsylvania, for example,

  • that's a really bad law. But then if you're looking

  • at Rhode Island, you're looking at Tennessee,

  • you're looking at other states, they're not all the same.

  • So the problem is when we talk about voter ID laws,

  • you're talking about a bunch of different provisions--

  • BILL: Well, they're all for limiting--

  • Twenty-one states since 2010 have adopted more restrictive,

  • make it more difficult to vote laws. 21 states have.

  • This will be the first presidential election

  • for 16 of those states. They're largely in the south,

  • they're largely trying to affect minorities--

  • Two quick points. Two quick points.

  • One is this is solution looking for a problem

  • -that doesn't exist, -BILL: Right.

  • and anytime you're restricting votes its bad,

  • but the unspoken truth that's happening in America,

  • the biggest disenfranchisement we've seen since were fighting

  • on the Edmund Pettus Bridge and others were fighting

  • for voting rights is

  • the disenfranchisement that's going on

  • of people who've been convicted of non-violent drug offenses.

  • -(APPLAUSE) -We right now have a country

  • where the Drug War is not a war on drugs,

  • it's a war on people, particularly poor people,

  • particularly minorities, and so now you have a nation

  • where you have swing states like Virginia and Florida

  • where 1 out every 5 African Americans has lost their right

  • to vote, and so we have this outrageous reality

  • in this country right now where our prison population

  • since 1980 has grown 500%.

  • Federal prison population, 800%. More people in jail today

  • for non-violent drug offenses, and all the people in jail

  • for 1975 being locked up for doing things the last two

  • presidents said they're doing, and now they're

  • in a second-class citizenship, a caste system where they can't

  • get jobs. They can't vote. They can't get Pell Grants.

  • They can't get food stamps. They can't get housing,

  • public housing. They've entered this caste system,

  • and it's an affront to our democracy

  • because basically what we're doing...

  • is millions of Americans, we're cutting them out,

  • taking away their voice and their participation

  • -in our country. So-- -BILL: Yeah, what he said.

  • -(APPLAUSE) -SALAM: Well, look, and you also

  • have conservatives and liberals who are agreeing on this,

  • and who are seeking to reform this.

  • This is not a partisan issue. I'm partnering on legislation

  • with everybody from allies, from the Koch brothers,

  • to others, trying to fight something in the system

  • that's completely broken. One of the greatest tragedies

  • going on in our country right now,

  • is that what we are doing to entire communities,

  • like the one that I've lived in for the last 20 years,

  • is we're devastating these communities.

  • The chance for an African American to be arrested,

  • and by the way, no difference between blacks

  • and whites for using drugs, no difference dealing drugs

  • except for some studies show that young white men

  • have a higher rate of dealing drugs than young blacks,

  • but an African-American will get arrested

  • for drug crimes about 4 times more than whites.

  • And this might actually make communities more dangerous.

  • That's the really scary thing.

  • Because if you want to be tough on crime, it turns out

  • that actually using incarceration too much,

  • you actually change the dynamics of these communities

  • in ways that make them more dangerous for the people

  • who live there, and that is really really bad.

  • BILL: I used to deal drugs. Did you?

  • -(LAUGHS) I did not deal drugs. -BILL: See? Right there.

  • (ALL LAUGH)

  • Did you ever deal drugs, Gerard?

  • -What's that? -Did you ever deal drugs?

  • No, but back in my day, I was known as an excellent bagger.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • You used to deal drugs?

  • Oh, in college, yes. Well, yes. Yes.

  • I was gonna say just pot, but that would be a lie.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -I mean, when I got out

  • of college it was just pot, but in college, it was whatever

  • my dealer had.

  • So, you would buy from your dealer...

  • You were like a middle man?

  • You'd buy from your dealer and you'd sell--

  • Well, that's not very nice.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • I thought of myself as an entrepreneur.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -Middle man.

  • It was the 70's.

  • No, but it still goes on today. Look, I went to Stanford--

  • BILL: That's how I got through college, by the way.

  • Well, there's lots of drug use going on--

  • Wait, wait, you paid your way through college dealing drugs?

  • -Yeah. -That's a...

  • -GRANHOLM: Wow. -(LAUGHTER)

  • Yeah, maybe I'm gangsta now.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • (APPLAUSE)

  • For the record, still no. The answer's still no.

  • -Why? Cause I'm white? -Yeah, kinda. A little bit.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -No. No. You're gangsta.

  • -Fine, Bill. You're gangsta. -More gangsta than you.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -Is Donald Trump, Ian Bremmer,

  • off base in suggesting that the US rethink its involvement

  • in NATO? You know, let's ask a different question

  • that's close to that. Trump said this week that he

  • was not putting nuclear weapons off the table dealing with ISIS

  • because we need to be unpredictable.

  • (NERVOUS LAUGHTER)

  • You know, you had me at Trump and nuclear weapons.

  • BREMMER: That's totally unpredictable. It's true.

  • I mean, that's a crazy thing to say, isn't it?

  • Well, I mean, I would say number one, Trump's slogan

  • is not "Make America Great Again"

  • it's "America First," and it's let's find

  • everyone else to blame. Mexicans are gonna come

  • to rape our women. Japanese and Chinese

  • are robbing us blind. The Europeans are taking

  • advantage of our good will on security.

  • Muslims are all gonna blow us up.

  • That's a problem, right? And we see that

  • with NATO as well. But I have to say,

  • at least from my perspective, I think the likelihood

  • that Trump actually could win a general election,

  • given the astonishing negatives he has among young, among women,

  • -among just normal Americans, -(LAUGHTER)

  • is really really low. And I know we're talking about it

  • because we have to and it's entertaining,

  • but I just don't--

  • -It's more than entertaining. -He could be the Republican

  • nominee, and probably will be. And by the way, in this country,

  • the Republican can always win. You know, they always said,

  • "Well, you know, the Republicans are losing minorities,

  • and they're losing women." Yeah, but they never tried

  • -a race war election. -SALAM: Yeah.

  • They never, like, really roused up those people

  • who when you lift up the rock, you find out what's living

  • in this country.

  • And Obama got like 40-something percent

  • of the white vote against Mitt Romney.

  • -Trump's gonna get more. -And combine that

  • with voter suppression laws.

  • He's 9 percentage points behind Romney among white voters,

  • -but what I will say-- -BILL: Trump is?

  • Yes, in a general election. Yeah, he's well behind Romney

  • among white voters. He gains some and he loses other ones.

  • He's gonna move to the middle. That's the problem.

  • This is why this is important.

  • I don't think he will move to the middle.

  • He doesn't know how to do that.

  • -No, he's gonna slide-- -He does not know how

  • -to adjust. -I think that--

  • -He's who he is. -You're talking about Ted?

  • -No, I'm talking about Trump. -No, no, Trump speaks--

  • No, Ted will know how to move to the middle, not Trump.

  • No, I disagree with you, I think that Trump--

  • Trump will not. He knows only one speed.

  • "I'm the best."

  • No, he will say stuff that is appealing--

  • He's not obligated to be consistent.

  • -No one expects him to be. -Exactly right. 70% of women,

  • for example, can't bear the thought of voting for Trump

  • in a general election. All women.

  • -(APPLAUSE) -But he's gonna...yes.

  • But he's gonna try to figure that out.

  • Remember, he's super smart, he went to Wharton.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -So, he's gonna try figure out

  • the language that makes him more palatable to groups.

  • -He's gonna do that. -BILL: He's never done that.

  • What he might do is deliver a serious blow to the Republican

  • -Party for 10 years. -Name me one time where he got

  • more reasonable. He calculatedly said,

  • "You know what, I think I'm gonna become--"

  • He says that he doesn't want to see poor people out

  • in the street. He wants to have healthcare for everyone.

  • I mean, he said that, right? He said that the thing

  • about trade, which is a Democratic position often,

  • and he thinks that we should be creating jobs in America.

  • He has said stuff

  • that is appealing to my side of the aisle.

  • He's got a dozen different positions.

  • -Yeah, I mean... -Immigration.

  • He will try to moderate.

  • But he's constitutionally incapable of not doing crazy

  • when he's in front of a camera, all right? That's the point.

  • He likes it too much.

  • We saw him read from the teleprompter.

  • We saw him at AIPAC reading from a teleprompter.

  • -We saw him being disciplined. -Right.

  • It happened once he can do it again.

  • -BILL: He fucked it up anyway. -Yeah.

  • -Yes he did. -What's interesting about Trump,

  • I've never seen white people scramble before.

  • I've never seen White America really, like, confused,

  • and like, what the fuck are we gonna do about this.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • -It's very interesting. -GRANHOLM: You mean Republicans?

  • Donald Trump, to me, is like white Hurricane Katrina.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -(APPLAUSE)

  • It's like... we didn't realize it was gonna be...

  • The levies have broken, and everyone is panicking

  • right now, and it's interesting to watch.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -(APPLAUSE)

  • But you live here, too.

  • I live here, too, but here's the thing,

  • -here's the thing, -It's gonna be worse for you.

  • I'm from the hood. I don't trust anybody.

  • -I think everybody's corrupt. -(LAUGHTER)

  • But you don't think it matters if Trump or anybody--

  • No, of course it matters. It definitely matters.

  • I'm just saying it's an intriguing thing to watch.

  • I think, you know, I've had a healthy mistrust of literally

  • every candidate that's ever existed in my lifetime,

  • so I'm like... yeah,

  • he's in the pile with the others.

  • BILL: Even Obama?

  • Um, with Obama, listen, we were all very excited.

  • (LAUGHTER)

  • We were young. We were excited. We were very happy, you know?

  • And until Cory runs, you know? We just gotta hang out.

  • (APPLAUSE)

  • -When is that gonna be? -I was about to chime in and say

  • that these are the days where I'm gonna run,

  • but not necessarily for something,

  • -more like from something. -(LAUGHTER)

  • But you're gonna give the white people a turn,

  • and they're gonna fuck it up, and then you're gonna be like...

  • You're gonna be like, come on.

  • Obama was pretty good. You miss him.

  • The first time I was on this show,

  • you said that, hey, this Obama, if he gets this thing right...

  • you remember this joke, don't you?

  • That they're gonna think these black guys are good

  • at this thing like basketball. We're gonna keep putting

  • the black people... That was the first...

  • That was my introduction to this show.

  • -(LAUGHTER) -(APPLAUSE)

  • And here it is 8 years later, and I'm still suffering through

  • -the same joke. -Okay, thank you very much.

  • We gotta go.

  • (APPLAUSE)

We were gonna get to Cuba, and we ran out of time,

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【馬厄脫口秀】美國總統大選分析 (Real Time with Bill Maher: Overtime – March 25, 2016 (HBO))

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    張強 發佈於 2016 年 08 月 03 日
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