Britain voted to leave the EU,

英國投票脫離歐盟

a new prime minister is ready to make that happen

新的首相已準備要讓這件事發生了

but nobody is quite sure what it means.

但沒人知道這到底意味著什麼

No talks have started,

目前還沒進行任何談判

and Britain is still a full EU member.

英國也還是一個歐盟全面會員國

But politically,

但政治上

everything has changed.

一切都改變了

The UK and the EU,

英國和歐盟

are parting ways after 43 years.

在一起經歷了43年後要分道揚鑣了

The question is

問題是

when

什麼時候分

and how?

又要怎麼分呢？

There are stages to this divorce.

這場離婚有幾個階段

The first, is on the British side.

首先是英國方面

With Theresa May taking office to succeed David Cameron as prime minister,

梅伊將接替卡麥隆成為下一任英國首相

the UK has a new leader.

英國有新的領導人了

What it needs now is a plan.

英國現在需要的是一個計畫

Mrs. May will barely have moved into Downing Street,

梅伊女士搬到唐寧街的首相府之前

before she'll face pressure to reveal her Brexit strategy.

必須先透露她對於脫歐的應付方案

Her debut on the world stage will be at the September 4th summit, of G20 leaders in China.

她首次亮相於國際舞台將於九月四日在中國的 G20 高峰會

A better moment to set out her views on Brexit,

一個說明她對於脫歐的看法的更佳時機

may be Britain's Conservative Party Conference on October 2nd.

可能為十月二日的英國保守黨大會

Shortly after that,

緊接著

on October 20th,

於十月二十日

she will attend her first EU summit in Brussels.

她將去布魯塞爾參加她的第一場歐盟高峰會

It will be a strange welcome.

那會是一場奇怪的初次見面

For Europe will be in the second stage of Brexit,

因為那時，歐洲會在脫歐的第二階段

setting the terms of engagement.

達成相關協議

The EU 27 are refusing to talk until Britain invokes article 50,

除非英國啟用第 50 項條款，也就是歐盟合約的正式退出條款

the formal exit clause in the EU treaty.

歐盟 27 國拒絕談判

That would give the EU side

這會讓歐盟這邊

the whip hand,

居於控制英國的地位

by starting the clock on the two-year Brexit deadline,

透過開始倒數英國脫歐的兩年期限

which only the EU can extend.

期限只有歐盟可以延長

There may be an Article 50 standoff,

有可能因為第五十條而發生歐盟與英國之間的僵局

it is not just controversial in Brussels,

這項條款不只對於歐盟而言有其爭議性

but Westminster too.

英國也認為它充滿爭議

Ultimately though,

但到頭來

most senior conservatives accept it should be triggered at some point.

多數保守黨高階黨員認為這條款項遲早還是要被啟動

Mrs. May has mentioned the new year,

梅伊女士曾提到「新年」

so Brexit day could well be January 1st, 2019.

所以脫歐很有可能發生在二〇一九年一月一日

Sorting that breakup is a third stage.

搞定那場分手是第三階段

This divorce severs ties and settles old obligations and rights

這場離婚會斷絕雙方的關係和結束舊有的權利義務

like budget dues and the status of expats.

例如經常預算會費的繳交以及外國人的身份

What this doesn't involve

但脫歐第三階段並不會談到

is the future UK-EU relationship.

英國與歐盟未來的關係

That is the fourth stage of Brexit,

這是英國脫歐的第四階段

and may take longer.

需要花更長的時間

The divorce does take account of what comes next.

這場離婚的確會考慮接下來將發生什麼事

So the two sides may agree on a common goal,

所以兩邊能擁有共同目標

say, a Canada style trade deal,

例如加拿大式的貿易協議

or a deep Norway style single market relationship.

或是挪威式的單一市場關係

But the details will be agreed after divorce.

但這些細節都會在脫歐後才決定好

Settling them and ratifying a trade deal in 38 national and regional parliaments could take five years or more.

在 38 個國家性及區域性議會之中安排好這些細節並且批准貿易協議可能要長達五年以上的時間

That means a transition will be needed to avoid hard Brexit,

這表示為了避免英國沒達成貿易協議就脫歐所造成的問題

where Britain leaves without a trade deal.

英國有轉型的必要

As you can see,

如你所見

Brexit is a complex business

脫歐很複雜

even if all goes to plan.

就算一切都照著計畫走

There is every chance it could turn hostile and ugly,

情況很有可能突然惡化

and a lot rides on Britain.

這大多取決於英國

What Brexit does it want?

英國想要怎麼樣的脫歐？

And will voters change their mind?

選民會改變主意嗎？

Campaigners for Britain to leave the EU made the country's businesses some big promises.

提倡英國脫歐的人們給了國內產業很大的承諾

An escape from burdens and European red tape,

脫離重負和歐盟的繁文縟節

access to new trading opportunities around the world.

以及擁有新的國際貿易機會

Is this what Brexit really offers, business?

英國脫歐真的會帶來商業契機嗎？