we are so close to war.

我們差點就要打仗了！

Or not close at all.

還是根本就不是這麼一回事？

Between aggressive threats and calls for peace,

一下子咄咄逼人的威嚇 一下子又呼籲和平

it seems Chinese media can’t make up their mind.

中國媒體好像很難拿定主意？

Hi, welcome to China Uncensored I’m your host Chris Chappell.

歡迎收看中國解密 我是主持人 Chris Chappell

You know, I admit,

我承認

I’ve been a bit worried about a war starting

我一直有點擔心

over tensions in the South China Sea.

南海的緊張局勢會就此引爆戰爭

Mainly based on statements from Chinese state-run media like,

這樣的擔憂主要是基於 中國國營媒體這類報導的文字

“a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea.”

「中美兩方在南海難免一戰」

Well, it’s easy to misinterpret that.

這很容易被曲解

Sure, it seems like the Chinese language Global Times

這看來像是中文版環球時報的遣詞用字

is in some way suggesting war between the US and China

在某種程度上暗示著中美之間

is inevitable in the South China Sea.

在南海終將一戰

But that was a year ago.

不過那是一年前的報導了

Now, according to this more recent editorial

現在，根據這份更近期的

in the English language Global Times,

英語版環球時報社論

that simply isn’t the case.

根本就不是如此

“China is a peace-loving country

「中國是個愛好和平的國家

and deals with foreign relations with discretion,”

並以慎重的態度處理外交關係」

and “hopes disputes can be resolved by talks.”

並「希望能透過談判解決爭端」

Whew, you could build an entire island on my South China Sea relief.

這麼說來你在南海造島我也很放心了

I’m especially glad to hear about that,

我特別高興聽到

“being willing to resolve things by talks” bit.

「希望能透過談判解決爭端」這部份

Because next week,

因為就在下週

a UN-backed tribunal in the Hague will be doing just that!

聯合國的海牙法庭就要透過談判解決爭端

It will rule on a territorial dispute between China and the Philippines

海牙法庭將會針對中菲之間的

over disputed territorial waters.

領海爭議做出裁決

It’s great that China is so open to resolving things by talks!

中國這麼開放 願意透過談判解決事情真的是太棒了

"China does not accept any dispute resolution from a third party

[中國外交部發言人洪磊] 「中方不接受任何第三方爭端解決方式」

and does not accept any dispute resolution forced on China."

也「不接受任何強加於中國的爭端解決方案」

Oh, funny that, I guess the Chinese regime isn’t really open to talks.

哦真有趣，我猜中國 並沒有要談話的意願

But China still only wants peace in the South China Sea, right?

不過中國還是想要南海和平，對吧？

I guess I’m just getting a little confused,

我猜我現在有點搞不清楚狀況了

since that English Global Times article says,

因為英文版的環球時報說

“China is a peace-loving country,”

「中國是個愛好和平的國家」

but then later,

但後面又說

“China should speed up building its military capabilities,”

「中國應加速其軍事建設」

and “let the US pay a cost it cannot stand

再來又說「如果美國介入南海

if it intervenes in the South China Sea.”

必使其付出無法承受的代價」

That sounds like a threat to me.

對我來說這聽起來像是威脅

Now, you might be thinking,

現在你可能在想

“Yeah? Them and what army?”

是嗎？他們什麼軍隊？

This one.

這個軍隊

China has started military exercises today which will run until July 11…

「中國今日開始實施軍事演習 直到 7 月 11 日結束」

vessels will be prohibited from the area.“

「同時禁止船隻在該海域航行」

Yup, China’s People’s Liberation Army

沒錯，中國人民解放軍

has just cordoned off a huge chunk of the South China Sea.

在南海畫了一大塊禁航區

"The military drills are the Chinese navy's routine drills

「有關軍演是中國海軍根據年度計劃

according to its annual plan."

進行的的例行性演練」

Right. Those drills are “routine.”

當然，這些軍演都是「例行性」的

Even though the Global Times

儘管環球時報前幾天

specifically wrote just a few days ago

還特別寫說

that the drills are being held as a result of the international arbitration case.

這項軍演是針對國際仲裁案的回應

Next Tuesday, the Hague will issue its ruling

下週二，海牙仲裁庭就會做出裁決

and it’s widely expected to rule in favor of the Philippines.

且廣泛預期仲裁結果將有利於菲方

So not only are this week’s drills happening

所以這個星期的演習不只是

in disputed territorial waters which Vietnam claims,

在越南主張的領海中舉行 [越南主張：綠線；中國軍演區域：紅線]

they’re also happening right next

軍演也剛好就在

to some of the busiest shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

南海最繁忙的航道隔壁

This is of course just the latest

這當然這只是

in the very long saga of the South China Sea territorial disputes.

多年南海爭議中的最近一波

China militarizes the region by, say, building artificial islands.

中國使用人工造島等手段將該區域軍事化

“China, in addition to building those islands,

「除了在這些島上做營造之外

is now militarizing them,

中國現在還將這些人造島軍事化

basing military aircraft, military warships and missile systems

在這些人造島礁上

on those manufactured reefs.”

進駐軍機、軍艦以及導彈系統」

The United States then says,

美國就說話啦

no, those are international waters and international airspace.

不喔，那邊是國際海域和國際空域

Then sends its military in to prove it.

於是就派送軍隊前往南海證明

Then Chinese state-run media criticizes the US for militarizing the region.

結果中國國營媒體批評 美國將該區域軍事化

China has criticized the militarization of the region

「中國針對美國將該區域軍事化的行為做出抨擊

by the US denouncing the show of strength as miscalculated.

譴責其武力展示的行為是打錯算盤」

Internet flame wars ensue.

網路口水大戰隨之而來

Then I make an episode about it,

然後我又做了一集節目

resulting in more internet flame wars.

結果再導致更多網路口水戰

It’s like a merry-go-round!

這就像是著火的

That’s on fire.

旋轉木馬

And it’s going way too fast to get off anymore.

而且速度也快到沒人下得來

Because all it takes is one little accident

因為只要有一點點小失誤

for this whole thing to spiral out of everyone’s control.

整個情況就會失去控制

Think that will never happen?

你覺得這永遠不會發生嗎？

July 1st, the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party:

7 月 1 日是中國共產黨的 95 週年黨慶

A Taiwanese patrol ship is doing training drills

一艘正在進行操演的臺灣巡邏艦

and accidentally fires a supersonic missile in the direction of mainland China.

意外的朝中國方向 發射超音速導彈

It hits another ship, killing the captain.

最終擊中一艘漁船造成船長死亡

Now, it just so happens that ship was Taiwanese.

還好這艘船是台灣籍漁船

But imagine what would be happening right now

但想像一下會發生什麼事

if that freak accident

如果這天外飛來的意外

had hit a mainland Chinese boat and killed a mainland Chinese captain.

擊中的是中國籍船隻 而且喪命的是中國籍船長

We might be working towards a final answer

我們大概就要提早

to that “One China Policy” question a lot sooner than anyone anticipated.

解決「一個中國」的問題

So as we approach the ruling by the Hague,

所以當我們接近海牙法庭仲裁之際

with tensions so high,

在高度緊張的情況之下

what do you think will happen next?

你覺得接下來會發生什麼事？

And what should be done?

應該要有什麼具體作為呢？

Leave your comments below.

將你的想法留在下面

Thanks for watching this episode of China Uncensored.

謝謝收看本集中國解密

Once again I’m your host Chris Chappell.

我是主持人 Chris Chappell

See you next time.

下次再見