(Laughter)

(笑聲)

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.

從來沒有一句 "我是英國人 "引來如此多的憐憫。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I come from an island where many of us like to believe

我來自一個島國，我們很多人都喜歡相信

there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.

在過去的一千年裡，有很多的連續性。

We tend to have historically imposed change on others

我們傾向於歷史性地將改變強加給他人。

but done much less of it ourselves.

但自己做的就少多了。

So it came as an immense shock to me

所以對我來說是一個巨大的打擊

when I woke up on the morning of June 24

當我6月24日早上醒來的時候

to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,

發現我國已投票決定脫離歐盟。

my Prime Minister had resigned,

我的總理已經辭職了。

and Scotland was considering a referendum

和蘇格蘭正在考慮舉行公投

that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.

這可能會結束聯合王國的存在。

So that was an immense shock for me,

所以這對我來說是一個巨大的衝擊。

and it was an immense shock for many people,

而這對很多人來說都是一個巨大的衝擊。

but it was also something that, over the following several days,

但這也是在接下來的幾天裡，。

created a complete political meltdown

導致政治崩潰

in my country.

在我國。

There were calls for a second referendum,

有人呼籲舉行第二次全民投票。

almost as if, following a sports match,

幾乎就像，一場體育比賽之後。

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

我們可以要求對方重播。

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

每個人都在責怪別人。

People blamed the Prime Minister

人們指責總理

for calling the referendum in the first place.

因為首先要舉行全民投票。

They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.

他們責怪反對派領導人不夠努力奮鬥。

The young accused the old.

年輕人指責老人。

The educated blamed the less well-educated.

受過教育的人指責受教育程度不高的人。

That complete meltdown was made even worse

那次徹底的崩潰更加嚴重

by the most tragic element of it:

由其中最悲慘的因素。

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain

仇外心理和種族主義虐待行為的嚴重程度

at a level that I have never seen before

前所未有

in my lifetime.

在我有生之年。

People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,

現在人們都在討論我國是否正在成為小英格蘭。

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

或者，正如我的一位同事所說的，

whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park

我們是否要成為一個50年代的懷舊主題公園？

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

漂浮在大西洋上。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But my question is really,

但我的問題是真的。

should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since?

我們是否應該有此後經歷的震盪程度？

Was it something that took place overnight?

是一夜之間發生的事情嗎？

Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?

還是有更深層次的結構性因素導致我們今天的處境？

So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.

所以我想退一步，問兩個很基本的問題。

First, what does Brexit represent,

首先，Brexit代表什麼。

not just for my country,

不僅僅是為了我的國家。

but for all of us around the world?

但對於我們全世界的人來說呢？

And second, what can we do about it?

其次，我們能做些什麼？

How should we all respond?

我們都應該如何應對？

So first, what does Brexit represent?

那麼首先，Brexit代表什麼？

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

後知後覺是一件很奇妙的事情。

Brexit teaches us many things about our society

Brexit教會了我們很多關於社會的事情。

and about societies around the world.

以及關於世界各國社會。

It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of

它突出了我們似乎尷尬地沒有意識到的方式。

how divided our societies are.

我們的社會是多麼的分裂。

The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.

選票按年齡、學歷、階層和地域劃分。

Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers,

年輕人沒有踴躍參加投票。

but those that did wanted to remain.

但那些想留下來的。

Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.

老年人真的想離開歐盟。

Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed

從地理上看，倫敦和蘇格蘭是最堅定的承諾。

to being part of the European Union,

到成為歐洲聯盟的一部分。

while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.

而在國內其他地區，則存在著非常強烈的矛盾情緒。

Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.

這些分歧是我們真正需要認識和認真對待的問題。

But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something

但更深刻的是，這次投票給我們的啟示是

about the nature of politics today.

關於當今政治的性質。

Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.

當代政治不再是單純的左右之爭。

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

這不再是單純的稅收和消費。

It's about globalization.

這是關於全球化。

The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization

當代政治的斷層是那些擁護全球化的人

and those that fear globalization.

和那些害怕全球化的人。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

If we look at why those who wanted to leave --

如果我們看看那些想離開的人為什麼要離開 -- --

we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" --

我們稱他們為 "離職者"，而不是 "留守者"... ...

we see two factors in the opinion polls

我們從民意調查中看到兩個因素

that really mattered.

這真的很重要。

The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,

第一個是移民，第二個是主權。

and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives

而這些都代表了人們重新掌控自己生活的願望。

and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.

以及感覺自己沒有得到政治家的代表。

But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.

但這些想法是象徵著恐懼和疏遠的。

They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders

它們代表著對民族主義和邊界的退縮。

in ways that many of us would reject.

以我們很多人都會拒絕的方式。

What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,

我想說的是，畫面比這更復雜。

that liberal internationalists,

認為自由主義國際主義者。

like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,

像我自己，我堅定地把自己也包括在這個畫面裡。

need to write ourselves back into the picture

自食其力

in order to understand how we've got to where we are today.

以瞭解我們是如何走到今天這一步的。

When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,

當我們審視英國各地的投票模式時，。

we can visibly see the divisions.

我們可以明顯地看到這些分歧。

The blue areas show Remain

藍色區域為 "留守"。

and the red areas Leave.

和紅色區域離開。

When I looked at this,

當我看到這個。

what personally struck me was the very little time in my life

令我個人印象深刻的是，在我的生活中，我的時間非常少

I've actually spent in many of the red areas.

其實我在很多紅色區域都有消費。

I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK

我突然意識到，從英國排名前50位的地區來看

that have the strongest Leave vote,

擁有最強的脫歐投票權的。

I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.

我在這些地區總共花了四天的時間。

In some of those places,

在其中的一些地方。

I didn't even know the names of the voting districts.

我甚至不知道投票區的名字。

It was a real shock to me,

這對我來說是一個真正的衝擊。

and it suggested that people like me

它建議像我這樣的人

who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,

自認為是包容、開放和寬容的人，

perhaps don't know our own countries and societies

不知天高地厚

nearly as well as we like to believe.

幾乎和我們想象的一樣好。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way

而由此帶來的挑戰是，我們需要找到一種新的方式。

to narrate globalization to those people,

向這些人講述全球化。

to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,

要認識到，對於那些不一定上過大學的人。

who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet,

誰也不一定是和互聯網一起成長起來的。

that don't get opportunities to travel,

沒有機會旅行的。

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive

他們可能不會被我們認為有說服力的敘述所說服。

in our often liberal bubbles.

在我們經常自由主義的保麗龍中。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.

這意味著，我們需要更廣泛地接觸和了解。

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,

在脫歐投票中，少數人兜售恐懼和仇恨的政治。

creating lies and mistrust

造謠惑眾

around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe

圍繞著，例如，關於歐洲的投票的想法。

could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,

可以減少來到歐洲的難民和尋求庇護者的人數。

when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration

當離開的投票與移民無關的時候。

from outside the European Union.

歐洲聯盟以外的國家。

But for a significant majority of the Leave voters

但對於絕大多數的脫歐選民來說。

the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.

擔心的是對政治體制的失望。

This was a protest vote for many,

這是很多人的抗議票。

a sense that nobody represented them,

一種沒有人代表他們的感覺。

that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them,

他們找不到一個能代表他們的政黨。

and so they rejected that political establishment.

所以他們拒絕了那個政治體制。

This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.

這種情況在歐洲各地和自由民主世界的大部分地區都有複製。

We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,

我們從唐納德-特朗普在美國的人氣上升中看到了這一點。

with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

與匈牙利維克托-歐爾班日益增長的民族主義。

with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.

隨著瑪麗娜-勒龐在法國的知名度提高。

The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.

Brexit的幽靈出現在我們所有的社會中。

So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,

所以我想我們需要問的問題是我的第二個問題。

which is how should we collectively respond?

這就是我們應該如何集體應對？

For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,

對於我們所有關心建立自由、開放、寬容的社會的人來說。

we urgently need a new vision,

我們迫切需要一個新的願景。

a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,

更加寬容、更具包容性的全球化願景；

one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.

帶來的人，而不是留下他們。

That vision of globalization

這種全球化的願景

is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.

是一個必須從承認全球化的積極好處開始的問題。

The consensus amongst economists

經濟學家的共識是

is that free trade, the movement of capital,

就是自由貿易，資本的流動。

the movement of people across borders

人員往來

benefit everyone on aggregate.

總的來說，每個人都受益。

The consensus amongst international relations scholars

國際關係學者的共識是

is that globalization brings interdependence,

是全球化帶來了相互依賴性。

which brings cooperation and peace.

帶來合作與和平。

But globalization also has redistributive effects.

但是，全球化也有再分配效應。

It creates winners and losers.

它創造了贏家和輸家。

To take the example of migration,

以移民為例。

we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole

我們知道，移民對整個經濟來說是一個淨積極的因素

under almost all circumstances.

幾乎在所有情況下，。

But we also have to be very aware

但我們也要非常注意

that there are redistributive consequences,

有再分配的後果。

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

重要的是，低技術移民

can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies

導致我們社會中最貧困的人的工資減少。

and also put pressure on house prices.

也給房價帶來壓力。

That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive,

這並不影響它的積極意義。

but it means more people have to share in those benefits

但這意味著更多的人要分享這些好處。

and recognize them.

並認識他們。

In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,

2002年，聯合國前祕書長科菲-安南。

gave a speech at Yale University,

在耶魯大學發表演講。

and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.

而這次演講的主題是包容性的全球化。

That was the speech in which he coined that term.

這是他在演講中創造的術語。

And he said, and I paraphrase,

他說，我轉述一下。

"The glass house of globalization has to be open to all

"全球化的玻璃屋必須向所有人開放。

if it is to remain secure.

如果要保持安全。

Bigotry and ignorance

偏執和無知

are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."

是排他性和對抗性全球化的醜陋面孔"。

That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008

包容性全球化的理念在2008年得到短暫的恢復

in a conference on progressive governance

在一次關於漸進式治理的會議上

involving many of the leaders of European countries.

涉及許多歐洲國家的領導人。

But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,

但在2008年的緊縮政策和金融危機中。

the concept disappeared almost without trace.

這個概念幾乎消失得無影無蹤。

Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.

全球化被用來支持新自由主義議程。

It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda

它被認為是精英議程的一部分。

rather than something that benefits all.

而不是惠及所有人的東西。

And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis

而且需要在更加包容的基礎上重新開墾。

than it is today.

比起今天的情況。

So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?

那麼問題是，我們如何才能實現這個目標呢？

How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation

我們如何才能在解決恐懼和疏遠問題的同時保持平衡；

while on the other hand refusing vehemently

一面又一口回絕

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

向仇外心理和民族主義屈服？

That is the question for all of us.

這就是我們大家的問題。

And I think, as a social scientist,

而我認為，作為一個社會科學家。

that social science offers some places to start.

社會科學提供了一些開始的地方。

Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,

我們的轉型既要有理念，也要有物質上的改變。

and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.

而我想給你四個想法作為出發點。

The first relates to the idea of civic education.

首先是關於公民教育的理念。

What stands out from Brexit

Brexit的突出特點是什麼？

is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.

是公眾認知與經驗現實之間的差距。

It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society,

有人說，我們已經進入了一個後事實社會。

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

在這裡，證據和真相不再重要。

and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.

和謊言與證據的清晰度具有同等地位。

So how can we --

那我們怎麼能...

(Applause)

(掌聲)

How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?

我們如何才能在我們的自由民主制度中重建對真相和證據的尊重？

It has to begin with education,

這必須從教育開始。

but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.

但必須從承認存在巨大差距開始。

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI

2014年，民調機構Ipsos MORI

published a survey on attitudes to immigration,

公佈了一項關於對移民態度的調查。

and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,

並顯示隨著移民數量的增加，。

so public concern with immigration also increases,

所以公眾對移民的關注度也會增加。

although it obviously didn't unpack causality,

雖然它顯然沒有解開因果關係。

because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers

因為這同樣也可以是不那麼多的數字。

but the political and media narrative around it.

但圍繞它的政治和媒體敘事。

But the same survey also revealed

但同一調查也顯示

huge public misinformation

巨大的公眾誤導

and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.

和對移民性質的誤解。

For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,

例如，在英國的這些態度中。

the public believed that levels of asylum

公眾認為庇護水準

were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,

是移民的比例比他們大。

but they also believed the levels of educational migration

但他們也認為，教育移民的水準

were far lower as a proportion of overall migration

在整個移民中的比例遠遠低於

than they actually are.

比他們的實際情況。

So we have to address this misinformation,

所以我們必須解決這種錯誤信息。

the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.

在全球化的主要方面，認識與現實之間的差距；

And that can't just be something that's left to our schools,

而這不能只是我們學校的事情。

although that's important to begin at an early age.

雖然這很重要，要從小開始。

It has to be about lifelong civic participation

必須是終身的公民參與問題

and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.

和公眾參與，我們作為社會都鼓勵這樣做。

The second thing that I think is an opportunity

第二件事，我認為是一個機會

is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.

是鼓勵不同社區之間進行更多互動的想法。

(Applause)

(掌聲)

One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,

其中，有一件事讓我非常震撼。

looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,

研究聯合王國的移民態度；

is that ironically, the regions of my country

是，諷刺的是，我國各地區的

that are the most tolerant of immigrants

最能容忍移民的國家。

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

移民人數最多的地方。

So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,

所以，比如倫敦和東南地區的移民數量最多。

and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.

而它們也是目前最能容忍的地區。

It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration

正是這些地區的國家有最低水平的移民。