is a tour around the entire global economy in under five minutes with George Magnus.

就是在五分鐘之內跟 George Magnus 一起討論整個全球經濟。

George, welcome.

George，歡迎。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Umm, let's start with the obvious. Brexit.

嗯......我們先從大事開始談起吧。英國脫歐。

What does it mean first for domestic British economy?

首先，英國脫歐對英國國內經濟有什麼意義？

I think two things that I'm focused on, really,

我現在關注的兩件事情，

one is, you know, in the initial... sort of flushes, as you were, of Brexit, the demand shock.

其中一個是英國脫歐立即的效果，就是對需求的影響。

So people will not make investment decisions, people will not make borrowing decisions, or enough.

人們會開始不做投資決策，開始不再借貸，或是借得不夠。

So the likelihood is we go into a little recession, maybe a big recession, hard to tell at this stage.

所以我們很有可能會進入一點點經濟不景氣，也可能是很嚴重的不景氣，現在看不太出來。

Second thing is really what comes after that, cause we'll recover from the recession.

第二個是不景氣後會怎麼樣，因為我們會從不景氣中復甦。

Will we have a permanent loss of trend growth, of output, of productivity, and that's really for the medium term.

我們會永久失去我們的趨勢成長、出口跟生產力嗎？而這是中期的。

So, not good.

所以，當然不怎麼樂觀。

Okay, immediate follow-up, what does it mean for Europe ex-Brit?

好，馬上下一個問題，英國脫歐後對歐洲的影響是什麼？

I think, obviously, European countries that do a lot of business with Britain,

我認為，很明顯的，那些跟英國有很多商業往來的歐洲國家

clearly will suffer, because there will be a demand shock, that they'll have to... kind of weather,

一定會不怎麼樂觀，因為會有個需求衝擊，而它們必須要想辦法渡過。

but the big thing, I think, for European countries like Germany, France, for example, Italy,

但是重要的是，我認為，對歐洲國家像是德國、法國，或像是義大利，

big countries, that have, you know, strong anti-EU political movements, is that...

這些有著強烈反歐盟的政治運動的大國家來說，

if they gain traction either on their own or because there's uncertainty in governing parties

如果它們不論是靠自己或是因為主政黨在試著調整其政策的過程中所導致的不確定性

trying to accommodate their policies,

而情況有所改善，

then, you know, that could have negative impact on spending and borrowing and lending decisions

那麼，你知道的，這可能對歐洲國家所做的

that European countries make.

支出、借貸以及貸款方面的決定有負面的影響。

So, growth in Europe may slow down quite a lot in 2017, too.

所以歐洲在 2017 年的成長可能也會有所停滯。

It comes at a time when growth in Europe is actually still quite fragile, showing some signs of light,

英國脫歐的時間點剛好發生在歐洲的成長仍然蠻脆弱的時候，雖然有點希望，

but not enough to overcome something like this.

但是卻不足以制衡像英國脫歐這麼嚴重的事情。

No, we're having a bit of a bounce, that's true.

我們現在遇到了點小困難，這是無庸置疑的。

And some countries like Spain, it's actually turning out to be a little bit more than a bounce.

而對一些國家像是西班牙來說，脫歐帶來的影響已經不只是一點點小困難了。

But, you know, the underlying, kind of, capacity of the European economy to generate growth,

但是，你知道的，帶動歐洲經濟成長的潛在能力

actually, it will only improve, really, I think if there's a kind of a relaxation, not so much of the monetary side,

事實上只會增強，我認為如果有點放鬆的話--不會是貨幣方面，

'cause the ECB has pretty much shot its bolt,

因為歐洲央行已經差不多無能為力了--

but actually on the fiscal side.

只會是財政方面的。

Hard to see that happening immediately.

現在也很難馬上看到它發生。

Ok, let's go across the pond for a second.

好的，讓我們來談談太平洋對面的美國。

The United States worries about a slowdown in job growth,

美國正在擔心就業成長率趨緩的問題，

obviously we're in the middle of a very tumultuous election, how do you see the situation there?

很明顯的，我們現在面臨一個非常混亂的選舉，你怎麼解讀美國現在的情況？

Yeah, I'm not too bothered about the slowdown in Nonfarm Payrolls which has just happened over... you know, in the months of April, May,

首先，我並不怎麼擔心美國非農就業數據在四、五月的成長停滯，

actually I think that the momentum in the economy, as it has been, since 2011, is kind of plus or minus 2%,

其實我覺得美國的經濟動能從 2011 年開始一直都是大概加減 2%，

sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less, but actually that's the kind of way it's going.

有時候多一點，有時候少一點，但是這就是一個國家經濟的常態。

I'm a bit worried about the capital spending numbers from companies,

我有點擔心公司的資本支出數字，

and I'm a bit worried about the impact that, shall we say an untoward shift in the... kind of polls in the American election

然後我也有點擔心美國總統選舉的民意調查如果有預料之外的轉變的話

might have on business spending and on consumer spending.

對企業支出跟消費者支出所可能帶來的影響。

So if the election doesn't really throw up a huge kind of surprise,

所以如果美國選舉沒有超出預期的轉變的話，

I think the American economy actually is self-sufficient enough to keep on growing about 2%.

我認為美國經濟事實上是自足的，能夠繼續成長大概 2% 左右。

Okay, a final... developed economy before we get to the EMs.

好的，在我們進入新興市場之前，我們來談談最後一個已發展的經濟體。

Japan, Abenomics, what's going on?

日本，安倍經濟學，到底怎麼了？

Well, uh... disappointing is all we can say, and...umm...

嗯，這個嗎......我們只能說日本現在很令人失望吧，然後......嗯......

unless, you know, the prime minister is able to kind of inject a new impetus behind these reforms, structural reforms,

除非，你知道的，日本首相能夠試著為這些改革--結構性的改革--試著注入新的刺激，

umm... and basically put more spending power into the economy, fiscally, obviously it's quite difficult,

嗯......然後試著在財政方面為整個經濟創造更多的消費動能，

but governance reform, trying to release cash on the balance sheet of listed Japanese companies,

但是治理改革也是需要的，可以試著在日本上市公司的資產負債表上面釋放金流，

these things might help,

這些動作可能有幫助，

but again, I don't really see very strong signs that that's imminent.

但是我不認為有強烈跡象顯示這些是日本首相將會做的事。

Okay, let's switch to emerging markets, let's start with China.

好的，我們來談談新興市場，先從中國開始。

China... I mean, the good news about China,

中國......怎麼說呢？有關中國的好消息--

and I'm not really prone to look for a lot of good news in China,

而我並不老是想要找一堆跟中國有關的好消息--

but the good news in China is the economy has stabilised,

但是有關中國的好消息是它的經濟已經穩定了，

and umm... and it's largely on the back of this huge increase in broad claims by the banking sector on the economy,

然後......中國經濟穩定的大前提是中國的銀行業對中國經濟的誇大描述，

umm... obviously there's a lot of discussion about whether that's the right policy to follow,

嗯......很明顯的許多人質疑這是否是應該遵從的政策方向，

but I frankly think that between now and the end of 2017,

但是我認為到 2017 年年底之前，

when the next 19th congress will take place,

也就是第十九屆全國國民代表大會舉行之前，

we won't see a lot of restraint exercised in the Chinese economy,

中國經濟不會有太多的限制，

so I think it will keep going, but actually, the debt problem is actually going to find it out sooner or later.

所以我認為中國經濟會繼續穩定下去，但是事實上，負債問題遲早會爆發。

Okay, less than a minute left, emerging markets, ex-China obviously, they're affected by what happens in China,

好的，我們剩下不到一分鐘。我們來談談除了中國之外的新興市場，它們都被中國發生的事情給影響，

uh, but how do you see things there?

呃，但是你對這些國家有什麼想法？

Right, so...uh, I think emerging markets have lapsed into this growth hiatus

好的，所以......我認為新興市場的成長已經慢慢趨緩了，

they can keep going in a kind of a... a less-than-satisfactory growth rate, relative...

它們可以以不怎麼令人滿意的成長率繼續成長，而這個成長率相較於......

I mean, it's higher than the rich countries that will be able to achieve,

我的意思是，這個成長率仍然比有錢國家可以達到的還要高，

but not as high as they've done.

但是沒有富裕國家曾經擁有的成長率那麼高。

And I think the reasons for this hiatus have to do with the stagnation of world trade,

而我認為這些新興市場成長停滯的原因跟全球貿易的衰退有關，

and with local homegrown factors,

但同時也跟它們自己國內的因素有關係，

when you look at Brazilian politics, you look at Russia's, you know, commodities problems,

像是如果你去看巴西或是俄羅斯的政治情況，你知道的，商品問題、

South Africa's commodity problem,

南非的商品問題等等。

India really is the only kind of bright spark, umm... they're...

印度真的是唯一一個表現比較亮眼的市場，他們......

and even then, government's changes, may... affect them. Yeah.

而即使如此，政府的改變......也會影響他們。是的。

Okay, great! George Magnus, thanks so much, appreciate it.

好的，太棒了！George Magnus，非常感謝你的分享。