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  • The Crises of Capitalism, 26 April 2010

    資本主義危機 2010年4月26日

  • Is it time to look beyond Capitalism towards a new social order

    現在是時候讓新的社會秩序來取代資本主義

  • that would allow us to live within a system

    從而使人們生活在一個

  • that could be responsible, just and humane?

    充滿責任心 公正和人性化的社會了嗎?

  • .

    .

  • Ok, so we've been through this crisis

    是的 我們正經歷著這場危機

  • and there are all sorts of explanatory formats out there.

    這其中存在著各種觀點

  • And it's interesting to look at the different genres.

    看一下不同的觀點會很有趣

  • One genre is that, it's all about human frailty.

    第一種觀點認為 這完全是人性的弱點

  • I mean, Alan Greenspan took refuge in the fact "it's human nature",

    艾倫·格林斯潘認為這是人的本性

  • he said, "you can't do anything about that."

    他說:"沒有人能改變人的本性"

  • But there's a whole world of explanations

    對此有著各種各樣的說法:

  • that kinda say it's the predatory instincts

    這就是人類掠奪的本性

  • It's the instinct for mastery.

    是人類本能的控制欲

  • The delusions of investors.

    是投資者的幻想

  • And the greed and all the rest of it.

    以及貪婪等

  • So, there's a whole range of discussion of that.

    諸如此類的說法還有很多

  • And of course, the more we learn about the daily practices on Wall Street

    而且我們越瞭解華爾街的日常運作

  • we kind of figure there's a great deal of truth in all of that.

    這個觀點似乎就顯得更有道理

  • The second genre is that there's institutional failures.

    第二種觀點認為 是制度失靈

  • That, you know, regulators were asleep at the switch.

    監管部門玩忽職守

  • The shadow banking system innovated outside of their purview.

    他們在職權範圍之外創建了影子銀行

  • Etc etc etc.

    不勝枚舉

  • And, therefore, institutions have to be reconfigured.

    因此 建立新的制度迫在眉睫

  • And it has to be a global effort, by the G-20, something of that kind.

    諸如20國集團那樣的國際合作形式

  • So, we look at the institutional level and say

    我們從制度層次可以看出

  • that has failed and that has to be reconfigured.

    它已經失敗 並且必須被重組

  • The third genre is to say, everybody was obsessed with a false theory.

    第三種觀點認為 大家都被一個錯誤的理論誤導

  • They read too much Hayek

    人們看了太多海耶克的理論

  • and believed in the efficiency of markets.

    並深信市場的效率

  • And it's time we actually got back to something like Keynes.

    是時候回到凱因斯理論

  • Or we took seriously Hyman Minski's

    或者關注海曼·明斯基的

  • theory about the inherent instability of financial activities.

    關於金融不穩定性假說

  • The next genre is that it has cultural origins.

    下一個觀點是關於文化的淵源

  • Now we don't hear that much in the United States

    目前在美國不太有人提起

  • but if you were in Germany and France

    但如果你在德國和法國

  • there are many people there who would kind of say it's an Anglo-Saxon disease.

    那裡很多人說這是盎格魯撒克遜監管體制的失敗

  • And, and it has nothing to do with us.

    還說這和我們沒有任何關係

  • And I happened to be in Brazil when it was going on, and

    08年金融危機之時我正在巴西

  • Lula was kind of saying, well, first off he was saying

    巴西前總統盧拉一開始幸災樂禍地表示:

  • "Oh, thank God the United States is being disciplined by the equivalent of the IMF

    "哦 感謝上帝 美國總算被相當於IMF的金融危機整治了一把

  • We've been through it 8 times in the last 25 years

    我們最近25年裡都被耍了8次

  • and now it's their turn. Fantastic!", said Lula,

    現在輪到他們了 活該" 盧拉如此說道

  • and all the other Latin Americans I knew, until it hit them, which it does.

    所有我認識的拉美人也都這麼說 直到他們也確實受到波及

  • And then they kind of changed their tune a little bit.

    他們才稍微收斂一些

  • So, there's a way of which it became cultural.

    因此 問題會像這樣按文化被區分

  • And, you can see that by the way in which this whole Greek thing is being handled.

    同樣的 這從人們對希臘這攤事的態度上也可以看出

  • The way the German press is saying, "Well, it's the Greek character

    德國媒體說:"好吧 這是希臘的特性

  • It's defects in the Greek character".

    這就是希臘特性的缺陷"

  • And there's a whole lot of rather nasty stuff going on around that.

    此外還有各種令人討厭的言論

  • But actually, there are some cultural features which have led into it.

    但確實有一些文化因素誘發了危機

  • For instance, the US fascination with

    比如美國對私有房產的

  • home ownership,

    著迷

  • which is supposedly a deep cultural value.

    就是一種影響深遠的文化價值\\

  • So 67, 68% of US households are home owners.

    在美國67%至68%的家庭都有自己的房產

  • It's only 22% in Switzerland.

    在瑞士只有22%

  • Of course its a cultural value in the United States

    這當然是美國一種特別的文化價值

  • that's being supported by the mortgage interest tax deduction,

    並且受按揭利息減稅政策的支持

  • which is a huge subsidy.

    這是一筆巨大的補助

  • It's being promoted since the 1930s, very explicitly in the 1930s.

    自20世紀30年代開始大力宣傳通過按揭獲得貸款

  • It was built up because the theory was

    貸款形式能持續推廣是因為

  • that debt incumbent home owners don't go on strike.

    通過貸款購買房產的人不會罷工

  • And then there's a kind of notion that it's a failure of policy

    有一種觀點認為是失敗的政策

  • in that policy has actually intervened.

    因為它干預了市場經濟

  • And there's a funny kind of alliance emerging between the Glenn Beck wing

    美國福克斯電視台的格林貝克和世界銀行之間

  • for Fox News and the World Bank,

    達成了有趣的共識

  • both of whom says the problem is too much regulation

    他們都聲稱問題是由太多不恰當的規則

  • of the wrong sort.

    所造成

  • So there are all these ways, and all of them have a certain truth.

    所有這些說法都有一定的道理

  • And skilled writers will take one or other of those perspectives and

    資深作家會將其中一些觀點編成故事

  • build a story and actually write a very plausible kind of story about this.

    並將其描述得合情合理

  • And I thought to myself,

    而我所思索的是

  • "Well, what kind of plausible story can I write, which is none of the above?"

    "除這些觀點之外 還能否寫出其他合理的解釋呢?"

  • Which is one of the things I always think to myself, and it's not hard to do

    這是我一直考慮的問題 其實做起來並不難

  • particularly when you're coming from a Marxist perspective because, you know

    尤其如果你持著馬克思學派的觀點 你懂的

  • there aren't many people who try to do this analysis from a Marxist perspective.

    現在很少人從馬克思主義的角度分析這些問題了

  • And I was really clued into this by this thing that happened

    我從一件事中發現了頭緒

  • at the London School of Economics about a year and a half ago when

    那件事發生在一年半前的倫敦經濟學院

  • Her Majesty, the Queen, asked the economists

    當英女王問經濟學家們:

  • "How come you guys didn't see this thing coming?"

    "你們為何沒有預測到經濟危機的來臨?"

  • She didn't say it exactly that way, but you know, it's the sentiment.

    當然這不是她的原話 但大意如此

  • And, they got very upset. And she actually called the Governor of the Bank of England.

    因此經濟學家們十分不滿 事實上 她打電話給英國銀行的管理者

  • And said, "How come you didn't see it coming?"

    問道:"你為何沒有預測到經濟危機?"

  • And then the British Academy put forward this

    接著英國學會召集了所有的

  • got together all these economists and they came up with this fabulous letter

    經濟學家參與討論會 他們寫了一封絕妙的回信

  • to Her Majesty.

    給英女王

  • And, it was actually astonishing. It said

    內容相當令人驚奇 信上寫道:

  • "Well, you know, many dedicated people, intelligent, smart, spent their lives

    "很多聰明的人士 一生都在認真謹慎地

  • working on aspects of this thing, very, very seriously

    鑽研這個問題

  • But the one thing we missed was systemic risk."

    但我們忽略了系統性風險這個問題"

  • And you say, "What?!"

    女王說: "什麼?!"

  • [Laughter]

  • And they went on to talk about the politics of denial and all the rest of it.

    接著他們就開始大打否定政治學之類的太極

  • So I thought, well you know, systemic risk, you know

    因此我想 你懂的 系統性風險

  • I can translate it into the Marxian thing.

    我可以用馬克思主義來解釋它

  • You're talking about the internal contradictions of capital accumulation.

    你所指的是資本積累的內部矛盾

  • And maybe I should write a thing about the

    也許我應該寫一些有關

  • internal contradictions of capital accumulation and

    資本積累的內部矛盾來弄清楚

  • try to figure out the role of crisis in the whole history of Capitalism.

    經濟危機在整個資本主義歷史中的作用

  • And what's specific and special about the crisis, this time around.

    以及這次危機的細節和特殊性

  • And there are two ways which I thought I would do that,

    我想到兩個可以實施的方法

  • One was to look at what's happened since the 1970s to now.

    一是回顧從20世紀70年代至今所發生的事情

  • And, the thesis there is that in many ways

    主題就是 從很多方面來看

  • the form of this current crisis is dictated very much

    這次危機的形式很大程度上是取決於

  • by the way we came out of the last one.

    我們擺脫上次經濟危機的方法

  • That the problem back in the 1970s was

    20世紀70年代的問題是

  • excessive power of labour in relationship to capital.

    資本主義關係中勞動力過多

  • That, therefore, the way out of the crisis last time

    因此 上一次是透過控管勞動

  • was to discipline labour.

    來平息經濟危機

  • And we know how that was done.

    我們知道該怎麼解決

  • It was done by off-shoring.

    那就是借助離岸外包

  • It was done by, you know, Thatcher and Reagan.

    透過柴契爾夫人和雷根總統

  • And it was done by neo-liberal doctrine;

    透過新自由主義學說

  • it was done in all kinds of different ways.

    靠各種不同的方式進行

  • But by 1985 or 86, the labour question had essentially

    1985至1986年之間 資本的勞動力來源問題

  • been solved for capital. It had access to all the world's labour supplies.

    已徹底解決 因為全球的勞動力供應已經敞開

  • Nobody in this particular instance, has cited

    沒有人在這個特殊的例子中指出

  • greedy unions as the root of the crisis.

    貪婪的工會是經濟危機的根源

  • Nobody, in this instance, is saying,

    沒有人在這個例子中說:

  • "It has something to do with the excessive power of labour."

    "這和勞動力過剩有關"

  • If anything, it's the excessive power of capital.

    如果有的話 就是過剩的資本力量

  • And in particular, the excessive power of finance capital

    特別是過剩的金融資本

  • which is the root of the problem.

    是導致這次危機的根本原因

  • Now, how did that happen?

    過剩的資本究竟是如何發生的呢?

  • Well, we've been, since the 1970s, in a phase, of what we call "wage repression".

    從20世紀70年代開始 我們就處於一個叫做「工資壓搾」的時期

  • That wages have remained stagnant

    工資已處於停滯狀態

  • The share of wages in national income

    所有經濟合作與發展組織國家的工資

  • right throughout the OECD countries has steadily fallen.

    在國民收入中的份額不斷下降

  • It's even steadily fallen in China, of all places.

    甚至在中國的大部分地區也在不斷下降

  • So that, there's less and less being paid out in wages.

    因此 工資越來越少

  • Well, wages turn out to be also the money

    工資是購買力的

  • which buys goods.

    來源

  • So if you diminish wages, then

    所以如果你的工資減少

  • you got a problem with where's your demand going to come from.

    市場需求從何而來也就成了一個問題

  • And the answer was, "Well, get out your credit cards.

    接著會有一個聲音出現:"好吧 拿出你們的信用卡

  • We'll give everybody credit cards."

    我們會給每個人發信用卡"

  • So we'll overcome, if you like, the problem of effective demand

    如果你們願意的話 我們將能透過

  • by actually pumping up the credit economy.

    推動信用經濟來克服需求的問題

  • And American households and British households

    美國家庭和英國家庭

  • all roughly tripled their debt over the last 20, 30 years.

    在過去的二三十年裡債務大約都提高了三倍

  • And a vast amount of that debt, of course, has been within the housing market.

    其中的一大部分債務存在於房產市場之內

  • And out of this comes a theory which is very, very important

    我們就此可以得到一個十分重要的理論

  • that Capitalism never solves its crisis problems.

    那就是 資本主義從來都沒有解決其危機問題

  • It moves them around geographically.

    它僅是把危機轉移給其他地區

  • And what we're seeing right now is a geographical movement of that.

    我們現在所看到的就是經濟危機的地理位移

  • Everybody says, "Well, okay, everything is

    大家都說:「不錯嘛 一切都在復甦

  • beginning to recover in the United States"

    至少在美國是如此」

  • And then Greece goes bang, and everybody goes,

    然後希臘經濟就垮了 其他各國也是

  • "What about the PIIGS?", you know.

    "歐洲五豬怎麼辦?" 你懂的

  • And it's interesting, you had a finance crisis

    這太有趣了 你在金融體系裡

  • in the financial system.

    經歷金融危機

  • You sort of half-solve that

    以犧牲國家債務危機為代價的

  • but at the expense of a sovereign debt crisis.

    前提下 看似解決了一些問題

  • Actually, if you look at the accumulation process of capital

    其實 在資本積累的過程中

  • you see a number of limits and a number of barriers

    你會看到許多限制和障礙

  • and there's a wonderful language that Marx uses in the "Grundrisse".

    在"政治經濟學批判大綱"中

  • where he talks about the way in which Capital cannot abide

    馬克思美妙地說 資本不可能遵守

  • a limit.

    限制

  • It has to turn it into a barrier

    資本必定會把限制當做障礙

  • which it then circumvents or transcends.

    然後將其規避或者超越

  • And then when you look at the accumulation process

    當你觀察積累的過程時

  • you look at where the barriers and limits might lie.

    你看到可能存在的障礙和限制

  • And the simple way to look at it is

    簡單來說就是:

  • to say, "Look, the typical circulation process

    "看哪 這就是典型的資本積累"

  • of accumulation goes like this.

    是像這樣進行的:

  • You start with some money.

    你最初帶著錢去市場

  • You go into the market and buy labour, power

    購買勞動力 電力

  • and means of production.

    生產資料

  • Then you put them to work

    然後透過特定的技術和組織形式

  • with a given technology and organisational form

    將這些購買來的東西

  • and you create a commodity.

    變成一個商品

  • Which you then sell for the original money plus a profit.

    你的定價就是成本加上利潤

  • Now, you then take part of the profit

    現在 你將一部分利潤

  • and you re-capitalise it into an expansion

    進行再投資以實現擴張

  • for very interesting reasons.

    基於某些有趣的原因

  • Now, there are two things about this

    這樣一來就會出現兩個問題

  • One is that there're a number of barrier points in here.

    第一 會出現許多障礙點

  • How is the money got together

    我們該怎樣把錢

  • in the right place

    在一個合適的地點

  • at the right time

    一個恰當的時間

  • in the right volume?

    以正確的金額匯攏在一起?

  • And that takes financial ingenuity.

    這需要財務別具匠心

  • So the whole history of capitalism has been about financial innovation.

    因此 整個資本主義歷史上一直對金融創新

  • And financial innovation

    金融創新

  • has the effect of, also, empowering the financiers.

    很有效果 同時也賦予金融家權力

  • And the excessive power of the financiers, can sometimes...

    金融家的權力過大 就會

  • They do get greedy, no question about it.

    毫無疑問 他們會越來越貪婪

  • And if you look at financial profits in the United States

    如果你看一下美國的財務利潤

  • They were soaring after 1990; they were going up like this.

    他們在1990年後開始劇增 就是這樣

  • Profits in manufacturing were coming down like this.

    而製造業的利潤則不斷減少

  • And you can see the imbalance in this country

    你可以看到這個國家的不平衡

  • I think the way in which this country has sided with The City of London

    我認為從20世紀50年代開始 美國聯手

  • against British manufacturing since the 1950s onwards

    倫敦金融城對抗英國的製造業

  • has had very serious implications for the economy of this country.

    已經對這個國家的經濟造成非常嚴重的影響

  • You've actually screwed Industry in order to keep, you know, financiers happy.

    為了滿足金融家們 製造業已遭破壞

  • Any sensible person right now would join an anti-capitalist organisation.

    任何明智的人現在都會加入反資本主義組織

  • And, you have to.

    而且是不得不

  • Because otherwise, we're going to have this continuation.

    不然的話 這種狀況將會持續下去

  • And notice it's a continuation of all sorts of negative aspects.

    各種負面情狀也將一併延續

  • For instance, the racking up of wealth.

    比如說持續增加的財富

  • You would have thought the crisis would have stopped that.

    你可能以為經濟危機會阻止財富的增加

  • Actually more billionaires emerged in India last year than ever.

    事實上 去年印度出現了 比以往任何時候都更多的億萬富翁

  • They doubled last year.

    這個數字在去年翻了一倍

  • The wealth of the rich in this country has accelerated.

    在這個國家富人的財富不斷增加

  • Just last year, what happened was that leading hedge fund owners

    去年 主要對沖基金的業主們

  • got personal remunerations of $3 billion each,

    僅在一年內就得到

  • in one year.

    30億美元

  • Now, I thought it was obscene and insane

    幾年前他們掙2.5億的時候

  • a few years ago, when they got $250 million.

    我就已覺得是腐化和瘋狂了

  • But they're now hauling in $3 billion.

    但是現在他們得到的是30億美元

  • Now that's not the world I want to live in,

    這已不是我想生存的世界

  • and if you want to live in it, be my guest.

    如果你想的話 請便吧

  • I don't see us debating and discussing this.

    我沒有看到任何人就這個問題進行辯論和討論

  • I don't have the solutions; I think I know what the nature of the problem is.

    我沒有解決方案 我想我知道問題的本質是什麼

  • And unless we're prepared to have a very broad based discussion

    除非我們準備好進行非常廣泛的討論

  • that gets away from, you know,

    能撇除那些

  • the normal kind of pablum you get in a political campaign.

    競選攻勢般的單調乏味題材

  • And you know, "Everything's going to be okay here next year if you vote for me".

    你懂的 "投我一票 明年一切都會變好"

  • Well, it's crap!

    那就只能是豪洨!

  • You should know it's crap.

    你應該知道這是豪洨

  • And, say it is.

    說出來吧

  • And we have a duty, it seems to me

    在我看來 我們有責任

  • those of us who are academics and seriously involved in the world

    作為真正關心世界的學者

  • to actually change our mode of thinking.

    改變我們的思維方式

  • Cognitive media

    認知媒體

  • www.cognitivemedia.co.uk

    www.cognitivemedia.co.uk

RSAnimate

RSA動畫

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 危機 資本 經濟 資本主義 觀點 金融

【RSA】資本主義的危機 (RSA Animate: David Harvey - Crises of Capitalism)

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    VoiceTube 發佈於 2016 年 07 月 03 日
影片單字