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The Crises of Capitalism, 26 April 2010

資本主義危機 2010年4月26日

Is it time to look beyond Capitalism towards a new social order

現在是時候讓新的社會秩序來取代資本主義

that would allow us to live within a system

從而使人們生活在一個

that could be responsible, just and humane?

充滿責任心 公正和人性化的社會了嗎?

.

.

Ok, so we've been through this crisis

是的 我們正經歷著這場危機

and there are all sorts of explanatory formats out there.

這其中存在著各種觀點

And it's interesting to look at the different genres.

看一下不同的觀點會很有趣

One genre is that, it's all about human frailty.

第一種觀點認為 這完全是人性的弱點

I mean, Alan Greenspan took refuge in the fact "it's human nature",

艾倫·格林斯潘認為這是人的本性

he said, "you can't do anything about that."

他說:"沒有人能改變人的本性"

But there's a whole world of explanations

對此有著各種各樣的說法:

that kinda say it's the predatory instincts

這就是人類掠奪的本性

It's the instinct for mastery.

是人類本能的控制欲

The delusions of investors.

是投資者的幻想

And the greed and all the rest of it.

以及貪婪等

So, there's a whole range of discussion of that.

諸如此類的說法還有很多

And of course, the more we learn about the daily practices on Wall Street

而且我們越瞭解華爾街的日常運作

we kind of figure there's a great deal of truth in all of that.

這個觀點似乎就顯得更有道理

The second genre is that there's institutional failures.

第二種觀點認為 是制度失靈

That, you know, regulators were asleep at the switch.

監管部門玩忽職守

The shadow banking system innovated outside of their purview.

他們在職權範圍之外創建了影子銀行

Etc etc etc.

不勝枚舉

And, therefore, institutions have to be reconfigured.

因此 建立新的制度迫在眉睫

And it has to be a global effort, by the G-20, something of that kind.

諸如20國集團那樣的國際合作形式

So, we look at the institutional level and say

我們從制度層次可以看出

that has failed and that has to be reconfigured.

它已經失敗 並且必須被重組

The third genre is to say, everybody was obsessed with a false theory.

第三種觀點認為 大家都被一個錯誤的理論誤導

They read too much Hayek

人們看了太多海耶克的理論

and believed in the efficiency of markets.

並深信市場的效率

And it's time we actually got back to something like Keynes.

是時候回到凱因斯理論

Or we took seriously Hyman Minski's

或者關注海曼·明斯基的

theory about the inherent instability of financial activities.

關於金融不穩定性假說

The next genre is that it has cultural origins.

下一個觀點是關於文化的淵源

Now we don't hear that much in the United States

目前在美國不太有人提起

but if you were in Germany and France

但如果你在德國和法國

there are many people there who would kind of say it's an Anglo-Saxon disease.

那裡很多人說這是盎格魯撒克遜監管體制的失敗

And, and it has nothing to do with us.

還說這和我們沒有任何關係

And I happened to be in Brazil when it was going on, and

08年金融危機之時我正在巴西

Lula was kind of saying, well, first off he was saying

巴西前總統盧拉一開始幸災樂禍地表示:

"Oh, thank God the United States is being disciplined by the equivalent of the IMF

"哦 感謝上帝 美國總算被相當於IMF的金融危機整治了一把

We've been through it 8 times in the last 25 years

我們最近25年裡都被耍了8次

and now it's their turn. Fantastic!", said Lula,

現在輪到他們了 活該" 盧拉如此說道

and all the other Latin Americans I knew, until it hit them, which it does.

所有我認識的拉美人也都這麼說 直到他們也確實受到波及

And then they kind of changed their tune a little bit.

他們才稍微收斂一些

So, there's a way of which it became cultural.

因此 問題會像這樣按文化被區分

And, you can see that by the way in which this whole Greek thing is being handled.

同樣的 這從人們對希臘這攤事的態度上也可以看出

The way the German press is saying, "Well, it's the Greek character

德國媒體說:"好吧 這是希臘的特性

It's defects in the Greek character".

這就是希臘特性的缺陷"

And there's a whole lot of rather nasty stuff going on around that.

此外還有各種令人討厭的言論

But actually, there are some cultural features which have led into it.

但確實有一些文化因素誘發了危機

For instance, the US fascination with

比如美國對私有房產的

home ownership,

著迷

which is supposedly a deep cultural value.

就是一種影響深遠的文化價值\\

So 67, 68% of US households are home owners.

在美國67%至68%的家庭都有自己的房產

It's only 22% in Switzerland.

在瑞士只有22%

Of course its a cultural value in the United States

這當然是美國一種特別的文化價值

that's being supported by the mortgage interest tax deduction,

並且受按揭利息減稅政策的支持

which is a huge subsidy.

這是一筆巨大的補助

It's being promoted since the 1930s, very explicitly in the 1930s.

自20世紀30年代開始大力宣傳通過按揭獲得貸款

It was built up because the theory was

貸款形式能持續推廣是因為

that debt incumbent home owners don't go on strike.

通過貸款購買房產的人不會罷工

And then there's a kind of notion that it's a failure of policy

有一種觀點認為是失敗的政策

in that policy has actually intervened.

因為它干預了市場經濟

And there's a funny kind of alliance emerging between the Glenn Beck wing

美國福克斯電視台的格林貝克和世界銀行之間

for Fox News and the World Bank,

達成了有趣的共識

both of whom says the problem is too much regulation

他們都聲稱問題是由太多不恰當的規則

of the wrong sort.

所造成

So there are all these ways, and all of them have a certain truth.

所有這些說法都有一定的道理

And skilled writers will take one or other of those perspectives and

資深作家會將其中一些觀點編成故事

build a story and actually write a very plausible kind of story about this.

並將其描述得合情合理

And I thought to myself,

而我所思索的是

"Well, what kind of plausible story can I write, which is none of the above?"

"除這些觀點之外 還能否寫出其他合理的解釋呢?"

Which is one of the things I always think to myself, and it's not hard to do

這是我一直考慮的問題 其實做起來並不難

particularly when you're coming from a Marxist perspective because, you know

尤其如果你持著馬克思學派的觀點 你懂的

there aren't many people who try to do this analysis from a Marxist perspective.

現在很少人從馬克思主義的角度分析這些問題了

And I was really clued into this by this thing that happened

我從一件事中發現了頭緒

at the London School of Economics about a year and a half ago when

那件事發生在一年半前的倫敦經濟學院

Her Majesty, the Queen, asked the economists

當英女王問經濟學家們:

"How come you guys didn't see this thing coming?"

"你們為何沒有預測到經濟危機的來臨?"

She didn't say it exactly that way, but you know, it's the sentiment.

當然這不是她的原話 但大意如此

And, they got very upset. And she actually called the Governor of the Bank of England.

因此經濟學家們十分不滿 事實上 她打電話給英國銀行的管理者

And said, "How come you didn't see it coming?"

問道:"你為何沒有預測到經濟危機?"

And then the British Academy put forward this

接著英國學會召集了所有的

got together all these economists and they came up with this fabulous letter

經濟學家參與討論會 他們寫了一封絕妙的回信

to Her Majesty.

給英女王

And, it was actually astonishing. It said

內容相當令人驚奇 信上寫道:

"Well, you know, many dedicated people, intelligent, smart, spent their lives

"很多聰明的人士 一生都在認真謹慎地

working on aspects of this thing, very, very seriously

鑽研這個問題

But the one thing we missed was systemic risk."

但我們忽略了系統性風險這個問題"

And you say, "What?!"

女王說: "什麼?!"

[Laughter]

笑

And they went on to talk about the politics of denial and all the rest of it.

接著他們就開始大打否定政治學之類的太極

So I thought, well you know, systemic risk, you know

因此我想 你懂的 系統性風險

I can translate it into the Marxian thing.

我可以用馬克思主義來解釋它

You're talking about the internal contradictions of capital accumulation.

你所指的是資本積累的內部矛盾

And maybe I should write a thing about the

也許我應該寫一些有關

internal contradictions of capital accumulation and

資本積累的內部矛盾來弄清楚

try to figure out the role of crisis in the whole history of Capitalism.

經濟危機在整個資本主義歷史中的作用

And what's specific and special about the crisis, this time around.

以及這次危機的細節和特殊性

And there are two ways which I thought I would do that,

我想到兩個可以實施的方法

One was to look at what's happened since the 1970s to now.

一是回顧從20世紀70年代至今所發生的事情

And, the thesis there is that in many ways

主題就是 從很多方面來看

the form of this current crisis is dictated very much

這次危機的形式很大程度上是取決於

by the way we came out of the last one.

我們擺脫上次經濟危機的方法

That the problem back in the 1970s was

20世紀70年代的問題是

excessive power of labour in relationship to capital.

資本主義關係中勞動力過多

That, therefore, the way out of the crisis last time

因此 上一次是透過控管勞動

was to discipline labour.

來平息經濟危機

And we know how that was done.

我們知道該怎麼解決

It was done by off-shoring.

那就是借助離岸外包

It was done by, you know, Thatcher and Reagan.

透過柴契爾夫人和雷根總統

And it was done by neo-liberal doctrine;

透過新自由主義學說

it was done in all kinds of different ways.

靠各種不同的方式進行

But by 1985 or 86, the labour question had essentially

1985至1986年之間 資本的勞動力來源問題

been solved for capital. It had access to all the world's labour supplies.

已徹底解決 因為全球的勞動力供應已經敞開

Nobody in this particular instance, has cited

沒有人在這個特殊的例子中指出

greedy unions as the root of the crisis.

貪婪的工會是經濟危機的根源

Nobody, in this instance, is saying,

沒有人在這個例子中說:

"It has something to do with the excessive power of labour."

"這和勞動力過剩有關"

If anything, it's the excessive power of capital.

如果有的話 就是過剩的資本力量

And in particular, the excessive power of finance capital

特別是過剩的金融資本

which is the root of the problem.

是導致這次危機的根本原因

Now, how did that happen?

過剩的資本究竟是如何發生的呢?

Well, we've been, since the 1970s, in a phase, of what we call "wage repression".

從20世紀70年代開始 我們就處於一個叫做「工資壓搾」的時期

That wages have remained stagnant

工資已處於停滯狀態

The share of wages in national income

所有經濟合作與發展組織國家的工資

right throughout the OECD countries has steadily fallen.

在國民收入中的份額不斷下降

It's even steadily fallen in China, of all places.

甚至在中國的大部分地區也在不斷下降

So that, there's less and less being paid out in wages.

因此 工資越來越少

Well, wages turn out to be also the money

工資是購買力的

which buys goods.

來源

So if you diminish wages, then

所以如果你的工資減少

you got a problem with where's your demand going to come from.

市場需求從何而來也就成了一個問題

And the answer was, "Well, get out your credit cards.

接著會有一個聲音出現:"好吧 拿出你們的信用卡

We'll give everybody credit cards."

我們會給每個人發信用卡"

So we'll overcome, if you like, the problem of effective demand

如果你們願意的話 我們將能透過

by actually pumping up the credit economy.

推動信用經濟來克服需求的問題

And American households and British households

美國家庭和英國家庭

all roughly tripled their debt over the last 20, 30 years.

在過去的二三十年裡債務大約都提高了三倍

And a vast amount of that debt, of course, has been within the housing market.

其中的一大部分債務存在於房產市場之內

And out of this comes a theory which is very, very important

我們就此可以得到一個十分重要的理論

that Capitalism never solves its crisis problems.

那就是 資本主義從來都沒有解決其危機問題

It moves them around geographically.

它僅是把危機轉移給其他地區

And what we're seeing right now is a geographical movement of that.

我們現在所看到的就是經濟危機的地理位移

Everybody says, "Well, okay, everything is

大家都說：「不錯嘛 一切都在復甦

beginning to recover in the United States"

至少在美國是如此」

And then Greece goes bang, and everybody goes,

然後希臘經濟就垮了 其他各國也是

"What about the PIIGS?", you know.

"歐洲五豬怎麼辦?" 你懂的

And it's interesting, you had a finance crisis

這太有趣了 你在金融體系裡

in the financial system.

經歷金融危機

You sort of half-solve that

以犧牲國家債務危機為代價的

but at the expense of a sovereign debt crisis.

前提下 看似解決了一些問題

Actually, if you look at the accumulation process of capital

其實 在資本積累的過程中

you see a number of limits and a number of barriers

你會看到許多限制和障礙

and there's a wonderful language that Marx uses in the "Grundrisse".

在"政治經濟學批判大綱"中

where he talks about the way in which Capital cannot abide

馬克思美妙地說 資本不可能遵守

a limit.

限制

It has to turn it into a barrier

資本必定會把限制當做障礙

which it then circumvents or transcends.

然後將其規避或者超越

And then when you look at the accumulation process

當你觀察積累的過程時

you look at where the barriers and limits might lie.

你看到可能存在的障礙和限制

And the simple way to look at it is

簡單來說就是:

to say, "Look, the typical circulation process

"看哪 這就是典型的資本積累"

of accumulation goes like this.

是像這樣進行的:

You start with some money.

你最初帶著錢去市場

You go into the market and buy labour, power

購買勞動力 電力

and means of production.

生產資料

Then you put them to work

然後透過特定的技術和組織形式

with a given technology and organisational form

將這些購買來的東西

and you create a commodity.

變成一個商品

Which you then sell for the original money plus a profit.

你的定價就是成本加上利潤

Now, you then take part of the profit

現在 你將一部分利潤

and you re-capitalise it into an expansion

進行再投資以實現擴張

for very interesting reasons.

基於某些有趣的原因

Now, there are two things about this

這樣一來就會出現兩個問題

One is that there're a number of barrier points in here.

第一 會出現許多障礙點

How is the money got together

我們該怎樣把錢

in the right place

在一個合適的地點

at the right time

一個恰當的時間

in the right volume?

以正確的金額匯攏在一起?

And that takes financial ingenuity.

這需要財務別具匠心

So the whole history of capitalism has been about financial innovation.

因此 整個資本主義歷史上一直對金融創新

And financial innovation

金融創新

has the effect of, also, empowering the financiers.

很有效果 同時也賦予金融家權力

And the excessive power of the financiers, can sometimes...

金融家的權力過大 就會

They do get greedy, no question about it.

毫無疑問 他們會越來越貪婪

And if you look at financial profits in the United States

如果你看一下美國的財務利潤

They were soaring after 1990; they were going up like this.

他們在1990年後開始劇增 就是這樣

Profits in manufacturing were coming down like this.

而製造業的利潤則不斷減少

And you can see the imbalance in this country

你可以看到這個國家的不平衡

I think the way in which this country has sided with The City of London

我認為從20世紀50年代開始 美國聯手

against British manufacturing since the 1950s onwards

倫敦金融城對抗英國的製造業

has had very serious implications for the economy of this country.

已經對這個國家的經濟造成非常嚴重的影響

You've actually screwed Industry in order to keep, you know, financiers happy.

為了滿足金融家們 製造業已遭破壞

Any sensible person right now would join an anti-capitalist organisation.

任何明智的人現在都會加入反資本主義組織

And, you have to.

而且是不得不

Because otherwise, we're going to have this continuation.

不然的話 這種狀況將會持續下去

And notice it's a continuation of all sorts of negative aspects.

各種負面情狀也將一併延續

For instance, the racking up of wealth.

比如說持續增加的財富

You would have thought the crisis would have stopped that.

你可能以為經濟危機會阻止財富的增加

Actually more billionaires emerged in India last year than ever.

事實上 去年印度出現了 比以往任何時候都更多的億萬富翁

They doubled last year.

這個數字在去年翻了一倍

The wealth of the rich in this country has accelerated.

在這個國家富人的財富不斷增加

Just last year, what happened was that leading hedge fund owners

去年 主要對沖基金的業主們

got personal remunerations of $3 billion each,

僅在一年內就得到

in one year.

30億美元

Now, I thought it was obscene and insane

幾年前他們掙2.5億的時候

a few years ago, when they got $250 million.

我就已覺得是腐化和瘋狂了

But they're now hauling in $3 billion.

但是現在他們得到的是30億美元

Now that's not the world I want to live in,

這已不是我想生存的世界

and if you want to live in it, be my guest.

如果你想的話 請便吧

I don't see us debating and discussing this.

我沒有看到任何人就這個問題進行辯論和討論

I don't have the solutions; I think I know what the nature of the problem is.

我沒有解決方案 我想我知道問題的本質是什麼

And unless we're prepared to have a very broad based discussion

除非我們準備好進行非常廣泛的討論

that gets away from, you know,

能撇除那些

the normal kind of pablum you get in a political campaign.

競選攻勢般的單調乏味題材

And you know, "Everything's going to be okay here next year if you vote for me".

你懂的 "投我一票 明年一切都會變好"

Well, it's crap!

那就只能是豪洨!

You should know it's crap.

你應該知道這是豪洨

And, say it is.

說出來吧

And we have a duty, it seems to me