Joining me here at the FT to discuss what it means for investment banking is Laura Noonan, our investment banking correspondent.

今天，跟我們在英國金融時報這裏，一起討論脫毆對投資銀行有何影響的是Laura Noonan。她是我們的投資銀行特派記者

So Laura, what does this vote mean for banks in the city of London?

Laura，請問這次英國脫毆的公投結果，對倫敦的各大銀行的意義為何呢？

Well, I think if you look at the reaction of the banks' share prices, it means only bad things.

這個嘛......我想如果你看看銀行股價的反應，就知道這不是件什麼好事了。

We've seen some very sharp falls in share price this morning, Deutsche Bank down 15-16%, UK banks down even more, RBS I think was the worst hit, down 34% at the open,

今天早晨，我們看著股價大跌。德意志銀行的股價下跌15-16%，英國銀行下跌的更多，而蘇德蘭皇家銀行（RBS）的災情最為慘重

so certainly investors are very concerned about this because it does raise a number of issues for the investment banks,

想當然，投資者非常憂心，因為這替投資銀行帶來很多問題

many (of) which have large operations here in the UK, particularly in the city of London,

許多投資銀行在英國的營運比重高，特別是在倫敦。

and they're gonna have to make some very serious decisions about those operations now because London has been traditionally a base.

因為傳統上，倫敦一直都是銀行的聚集基地，而現在他們得針對營運，慎重地做出決定。

So the idea is that you come here and you'd access all of the other infrastructure here,

所以，概念就是，你來到這裡運用各式基礎設施，

you have like legal firms, talent all of that,

你有合法的公司跟人才等等，

and then you use London as being the base to passport into the rest of the EU.

接著你把倫敦當作進入歐盟的跳板。

That only definitely works if you are in the EU.

但這成功的前提是，你是歐盟的一份子

Now it isn't definite that you can't do that through some kind of a bilateral agreement down the line,

這並不是說，你在未來不能藉由一些雙邊協議達成進入歐盟的目的

but there's certainly very significant uncertainty there, and that's (it's) why we're seeing the investment banks really get battered today.

只不過，現在不確定性很高，這也是為什麼我們現在看到投資銀行都水深火熱的原因。

So is this, is this the party's over in the city of London now？

所以，現在倫敦的榮景已經不再了嗎？

we're gonna see an exodus of jobs, of activity, we're gonna see a shift to places like Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt, is that what's gonna happen?

我們可以看到，許多工作跟活動都大量出走。我們可能會看到銀行將重心轉到巴黎、都柏林、法蘭克福等等，這樣的情況真的會發生嗎？

I think that you could confidently say that they are going to be fewer people working for investment banks here in 3, 4, 5 years time than there are now.

我想，你可以很肯定地說，跟現在相比，接下來的三至五年在這裏的投資銀行工作的人將會減少

The big question is in terms of the size of the shift, so yes, the banks are going to have to make alternative arrangements.

重要的問題是，這波遷移潮的規模有多大。所以，是的，銀行必須提出替代安排方案。

The banks are trying very hard not to be pinned down on those just now because we literally have only had the news in the last 24 hours.

因為我們在過去24小時才剛得到這個消息，所以此刻，銀行正設法不要讓自己動彈不得。

And banks had not prepared for this, everyone thought it was going to be an "in,"

而且，銀行對著其實毫無準備，每個人都認為公投的結果會是「留歐」

so banks hadn't really been seriously contemplating, I mean they had made some level of contingency plans,

所以，銀行其實還沒慎重思考過，我是說，他們有些不同程度的臨時計畫，

but as things progressed in the last week or so, banks thought this is actually going to be "in," this is going to be fine,

但是，隨著上週的進展，銀行認為最終的投票結果仍是「留歐」，一切都會沒事的。

the banks are really hoping that there's gonna be some kind of a solution, which is going to allow them to keep a lot of their workforce here in the UK,

銀行都希望，最終仍會有解決辦法，讓他們可以在英國保留大量的人力，

and then [outsource] some of them to some of those other cities which you mentioned.

接著再把其中某些人力轉移到你剛剛提到的城市。

And these big share price moves that we've seen, you know, the Wall Street markets are open, the big US banks are down some 8, 6 %, the likes of Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs.

你知道的，股價的變動很大。華爾街市場開放，美國大銀行的股市下跌8％或6%，像是美國銀行、摩根史丹利、高盛銀行。

But the big European banks are down between 15 and 20%, I mean that's many tens of billions of pounds of value wiped off these big financial institutions,

但是，歐洲大銀行下跌的比例在15%至20%之間，我的意思是，價值數百億的英鎊，就這樣從這些大金融機構消失了。

are we talking about a new financial crisis here?

我們現在談的是金融危機嗎？

Well I think when you look at the performance of the European banks and you're right, the European banks have been very, very severely hit.

我想，當你看到歐洲銀行的表現，答案是肯定的。歐洲銀行的狀況非常非常地糟

You would also view in the context of the increase in the share price of the European banks earlier in the weeks.

你也可以看到前幾週歐洲銀行的股價上升

So basically as it began to look as if it was gonna be an "in," we saw fairly significant rises in the European bank share prices, also in the UK bank share prices, also in the Cable rate,

所以，基本上，當公投結果似乎指向「留歐」時，我們看到包含歐洲銀行與英國銀行的股價大漲，電匯匯率也上升

so we are seeing an element of just taking back those increases.

所以我們現在看的，就是導致股價不再上升的因素

Okay. And are there any silver linings to this?

好的，那麼現在的情況有任何好轉的希望嗎？

I mean, there are some cause for hope in that there was a lot of concern going into this on the market side in particular

我是說，現在還是有些可以讓我們抱持希望的原因。只不過，目前大家仍舊是憂心忡忡，特別是市場方面。

because we've seen so much contraction in the liquidity, banks are actually able to give to the markets because of the various rules brought in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

因為，我們可以看到流動性萎縮的幅度很大。但是其實因此銀行可以交給市場運作，因為金融危機之後，許多規範應運而生

There was a real fear as that in the event of an "out" vote that there could be absolute chaos,

真正恐懼的開始，是在英國選民投出「脫毆」的決定之後。這個結果可能導致情勢完全失控

that the banks if we didn't have the capacity to absorb the kind of levels of activity, the kind of selling that we were gonna see.

如果我們沒有能力承擔這些程度的貨幣流動，或是處理我們目前看到的這些拋售

Now all the indications from the banks, and it is early days yet, but certainly for the initial 12,14, 16 hours,

現在，來自銀行的跡象，精確來說，是最初這12、14、或16小時的各種跡象顯示

all the indications are that they have been able to keep their doors open, it has certainly been a fairly fraught time for them,

他們可以繼續敞開大門。可以確定的是，這段時間對他們而言十分艱困。

but there aren't any indications of a large-scale breakdown.

但是並沒有大規模崩潰的跡象

Laura, thank you very much. -Thank you.

Laura，謝謝你！