Always be cautious.

Always be cautious (字首為ABC)，小心為上策

ABC was certainly the leitmotif for this week's Central Bank meeting bonanza.

這句話堪稱是本週各國央行的行動準則

The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan all refrain from action.

英格蘭銀行、聯準會、日本央行都按兵不動

On Thursday, the Bank of England muttered dark about Brexit risks.

週四，英格蘭銀行表示不看好英國脫歐

Also the BOJ grumbled in vain about the yen's strength.

日本央行依然無力遏止持續走強的日圓

The real action came from the Fed on Wednesday.

相比之下，週三聯準會的動作較引人注目

Now investors had expected a cautious start after a woeful jobs report and with a nerve-wrecking UK referendum on EU membership on the horizon.

因為表現奇差的就業報告和近在眼前的英國脫歐公投，投資人自然對升息一事態度保守

But some thought that policy makers would hint that a July rate increase was a possibility.

但仍有不少人仍認為決策者有意在七月升息

And instead, the Fed served up a cautious statement, pessimistic forecast, and a strikingly guarded press conference.

然而，聯準會地不但發布了保守的聲明，提出了悲觀的預測，還在記者會上表現出他們謹慎的態度

The ten year treasury yield had dully dropped to its lowest level since August, 2012.

美國十年國債收益率降到了2012年8月以來的新低

Now, Fed chair Janet Yellen said it's not impossible that policy makers could raise rates in July,

聯準會主席耶倫依然表示決策者有可能決定七月進行升息

but investors have shrugged off this feeble attempt at keeping the possibility alive.

但投資者知道機會微乎其微

While there will be more clarity on the UK referendum outcome by then,

當然，事情的走向會在英國脫歐公投結果出爐後更加明瞭

Fed Funds futures indicate that investors only see a 2% chance that the US Central Bank will tighten then.

聯邦基金期貨顯示投資者認為只有2%的機率美國聯邦儲備系統會有所作為

What is even more remarkable is that markets are implying that there is a two-thirds chance that the Fed is paralyzed for the rest of the year.

市場更顯示出聯準會在本年內將持續按兵不動的機率高達三分之二

The last time investors were this downbeat on US interest rates in February, global markets were in the dumps.

投資者對於升息的期望低落，不亞於金融海嘯後的低潮

Essentially, investors are seeing the Fed's dovishness and doubling down.

根本上來說，投資者跟進了聯準會保守的作風

And as outspoken bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach said, the rate-hike cycle has left the building.

正如債券基金經理人 Jeffrey Gundlach 所說：「升息週期早被拋到九霄雲外了。」

Now, perhaps that's true.

這或許是真的

But remember, a majority of policy makers still think the Fed should raise interest rates at least twice this year, and three more times in 2017.

但不可否認的是，仍有大部分的決策者認為聯準會今年至少需要升息兩次，2017年再升息三次

And despite the weak May jobs report,

雖然五月的就業報告奇差

the labor market remains strong, the economy relatively resilient, the inflation forecasts were actually raised.

美國勞動力市場依然強健，且整體經濟在復甦，預期通貨膨脹率也提高了

The Fed may be cautious, but it's not catatonic.

聯準會的態度或許保守，但他們並不慌張

And given depressed yields, even a small shift in rate expectations could deliver a shock to the sparsely traded summer markets.

眼下收益率之低，投資人對升息的期望那怕只有些微的變動，都足以撼動目前平靜的市場

This is Robert Wigglesworth for the Financial Times.

金融時報， Robert Wigglesworth 報導