A grim product, declare the authorities, of an ever larger number of people ascending to great heights

日本當局說明這是是愈來愈多人登山前

without checking the weather

未查詢天氣的嚴峻後果

With the UK referendum on Europe looming, something similar is happening in currency markets

因為英國的脫歐公投即將舉行，類似的情況已在貨幣市場中出現

Trading floors everywhere are girding themselves

各地的交易所戰戰兢兢

for volatility around the referendum result

為公投結果出來後的市場波動做準備

especially if the result is for leave

尤其是若公投結果為脫歐

sterling moves could be banked upon to be explosive in that scenario

英鎊肯定在這種情況下會大幅貶值

spreading tumult across the G10 currency basket

造成G10貨幣大受影響

But it may ultimately be the yen, and any resulting act of

但造成最大轟動最終應是日圓，以及任何

market intervention by Tokyo to weaken its currency

日本為了讓日圓貶值

that detonates the biggest blast

而干預市場的結果

The language of manipulation is already in the air

互相操縱的氛圍濃厚

and traders are dusting off their Ministry of Finance intervention lexicons

交易員重新啟用財政部做出市場干預時所使用的詞庫

on the assumption that a leave vote in the UK

因為認為英國舉辦脫歐公投

will force Japan to act

會迫使日本政府作出行動

The problem is that Japan has inadvertently built up a potentially

問題在於日本無意間

massive amplifier for big moves in the yen

已在這樣的情況之下

at around these current levels

做出足以加重日圓巨大變動的行為

Despite rising claims to the contrary

縱使愈來愈多人不如此認為

Abenomics has not been a complete failure

安倍經濟學並不全然是一場失敗

The past 3 years of yen weakness have helped corporate Japan

過去三年日幣的疲弱不振雖幫助了

accumulate an all-time record stash of overseas earning

日本企業累積史上最多

retained in other currencies

以外幣儲存的海外盈利

Analysts put the combined hoard at about 50 trillion yen, add that to the 20 trillion yen

分析師估計這些海外盈利大約為50兆日圓，

of foreign stock investments built by Japanese investors

加上今年3月31日以前共20個月所積累的

in the 20 months up to March 31st this year, and you effectively have

日本投資者投資海外股票的20兆日圓

an impressively mountainous short yen position

如此一來，日本建立了非常可觀的日圓短倉

This is where the dangerous weather conditions come in

這時天氣就變得非常危險

For the moment, that huge position is not making an equivalently huge impact on markets

這個現象暫時不會對於市場造成太大的影響

The yen has been climbing rapidly against the dollar and sterling

日圓已開始快速對美金及英鎊升值

but not so quickly that this has forced Japanese corporates to unwind in a gush

但速度不至於促使日本企業迅速倒閉

Brexit could change that in the space of a few hours

這一切都有可能在英國脫歐數小時之後改變

and the once manageable mountain suddenly becomes very threatening

曾經容易控制的日圓短倉突然變得岌岌可危

The yen would surge against sterling, but could move even more

日圓將對英鎊升值

violently higher against the dollar as global Safe Haven trades kick in

但全球避險貨幣開始交易後，日圓對美元的升值或許更為劇烈

A break above 100 yen against the dollar is plausible, say dealers

交易者認為日圓有可能升破100日圓兌1美元的關卡

and could put intolerable pressure on corporate Japan to

並且給予日本企業無比大的壓力

repatriate at exactly the point when markets least want yen strength to be exaggerated

於市場最不希望日圓大幅升值的時候將資金調回本國

Given the close correlation between the yen and the equity market

由於日圓及股權市場之間的高度關聯性

the Japanese authorities may have little choice

日本當局或許別無選擇

but to intervene and sell the yen for the first time

必須干預並且自從2011年的東日本大地震

since the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake

首次出售日圓