I actually speak at TED Evil, which is TED's secret sister

我在TED Evil（邪惡TED）演講，這是TED的秘密姐妹組織--

that pays all the bills.

為所有費用買單。

It's held every two years in Burma.

TED Evil每兩年在緬甸舉行一次。

And I particularly remember a really good speech

有一場非常精彩的演講尤其令我印象深刻。

by Kim Jong Il on how to get teens smoking again.

金正日(Kim Jong II)談論如何能讓青少年再度吸煙。

(Laughter)

（笑）

But, actually, it's suddenly come to me after years working in the business,

但實際上，在廣告界工作多年後，我突然發現，

that what we create in advertising,

我們在廣告中創造的是，

which is intangible value -- you might call it perceived value,

無形價值--也可以叫作感知價值，

you might call it badge value, subjective value,

或者標識價值，主觀價值，

intangible value of some kind --

某種形式的無形價值--

gets rather a bad rap.

時常得到負面評價。

If you think about it, if you want to live in a world in the future

設想一下，如果將來你想生活在

where there are fewer material goods, you basically have two choices.

物質相對缺乏的世界，基本上你有兩個選擇。

You can either live in a world which is poorer,

你可以生活在相對貧窮的世界，

which people in general don't like.

一般人都不喜歡這個選擇。

Or you can live in a world where actually intangible value

或者，你可以生活在無形價值構成

constitutes a greater part of overall value,

總體價值很大比重的世界，

that actually intangible value, in many ways

事實上，無形價值在很多方面

is a very, very fine substitute

能很好地替代

for using up labor or limited resources

有限的人力或資源

in the creation of things.

用來創造產品。

Here is one example. This is a train which goes from London to Paris.

這裏有個例子。這是一輛從倫敦開往巴黎的火車。

The question was given to a bunch of engineers,

15年前，工程師們遇到一個問題，

about 15 years ago, "How do we make the journey to Paris better?"

“如何能改善倫敦至巴黎之旅”

And they came up with a very good engineering solution,

他們想出了一個非常好的工程解決方案，

which was to spend six billion pounds

即花費60億英鎊

building completely new tracks

在倫敦和蔚藍海岸之間

from London to the coast,

建造全新的軌道，

and knocking about 40 minutes off a three-and-half-hour journey time.

使三個半小時的旅程減少40分鐘。

Now, call me Mister Picky. I'm just an ad man ...

現在，大家可以叫我挑剔先生。我只是個廣告人...

... but it strikes me as a slightly unimaginative way of improving a train journey

但依我看，作為改善火車之旅的方法，這不免有些缺乏想像力

merely to make it shorter.

如果僅僅是縮短行程的話。

Now what is the hedonic opportunity cost

那麼花費60億建造鐵軌的

on spending six billion pounds on those railway tracks?

快樂機會成本是多少呢？

Here is my naive advertising man's suggestion.

作為一個天真的廣告人，我的建議是：

What you should in fact do is employ all of the world's top male

實際上應該把所有世界頂級的男模，

and female supermodels,

和女模請來，

pay them to walk the length of the train, handing out free Chateau Petrus

在旅途的全程走秀，免費發放波得路堡紅葡萄酒

for the entire duration of the journey.

直到旅程結束。

(Laughter)

（笑）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now, you'll still have about three billion pounds left in change,

這樣的話，還能省下三十億英鎊左右，

and people will ask for the trains to be slowed down.

而且人們反而還會要求火車開的慢點。

(Laughter)

（笑）

Now, here is another naive advertising man's question again.

現在，我這個天真的廣告人又要提一個問題了。

And this shows that engineers,

剛才的例子說明，工程師、

medical people, scientific people,

醫生和科學家，

have an obsession with solving the problems of reality,

都執迷於解決現實問題，

when actually most problems, once you reach a basic level of wealth

而實際上，當人們在社會中達到了一定的財富水準，

in society, most problems are actually problems of perception.

大多數問題其實是感知上的問題。

So I'll ask you another question.

所以，我要再問你們一個問題。

What on earth is wrong with placebos?

百憂解到底有什麼不妥？

They seem fantastic to me. They cost very little to develop.

我覺得這個主意太棒了。不僅研製成本很低，

They work extraordinarily well.

而且效果非常好，

They have no side effects,

還無副作用，

or if they do, they're imaginary, so you can safely ignore them.

如果有的話，也只是你的想像，完全可以忽略它。

(Laughter)

（笑）

So I was discussing this. And I actually went to the Marginal Revolution blog

所以我開始與人討論這個問題。我還到泰勒·考恩(Tyler Cowen)名為邊際革命的部落格上留言。

by Tyler Cowen. I don't know if anybody knows it.

我不知道是否有人知道。

Someone was actually suggesting that you can take this concept further,

實際上，有人建議把這一概念帶到更深的層面，

and actually produce placebo education.

發展安慰教育。

The point is that education doesn't actually work by teaching you things.

這一觀點認為，教育的作用並不是通過教授知識而產生的。

It actually works by giving you the impression

而是通過讓人們產生其已接受良好教育的印象而產生的。

that you've had a very good education, which gives you an insane sense

這種印象給人們不切實際的

of unwarranted self-confidence,

強烈信心

which then makes you very, very successful in later life.

並使他們在今後的生活中非常成功。

So, welcome to Oxford, ladies and gentlemen.

所以，女士們先生們，歡迎來到牛津大學。

(Laughter)

（笑）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But, actually, the point of placebo education is interesting.

但實際上，安慰教育背後的觀點很有趣。

How many problems of life can be solved

生活中有多少問題

actually by tinkering with perception,

能通過改變感知來解決，

rather than that tedious, hardworking and messy business

而不是通過既乏味又辛苦的努力

of actually trying to change reality?

改變現實？

Here's a great example from history. I've heard this attributed to several other kings,

歷史上有個很好的例子。我聽說有人把這件事被歸功於其他幾個國王，

but doing a bit of historical research,

但我做了一些歷史研究，

it seems to be Fredrick the Great.

應該發生在弗雷德里克大帝身上。

Fredrick the Great of Prussia was very, very keen

普魯士的弗雷德里克大帝一度非常希望

for the Germans to adopt the potato and to eat it,

德國人接受馬鈴薯，食用馬鈴薯。

because he realized that if you had two sources of carbohydrate,

因為他認為，如果有小麥和馬鈴薯這兩種碳水化合物的來源，

wheat and potatoes, you get less price volatility in bread.

可以減少麵包價格的動盪。

And you get a far lower risk of famine,

同時，也可以大大降低發生饑荒的風險，

because you actually had two crops to fall back on, not one.

因為有兩種作物可以依靠，而不是一種。

The only problem is: potatoes, if you think about it, look pretty disgusting.

唯一的問題是：馬鈴薯，如果大家想一想，看上去相當醜。

And also, 18th century Prussians ate very, very few vegetables --

而且，18世紀的普魯士人吃非常非常少的蔬菜--

rather like contemporary Scottish people.

很像現在的蘇格蘭人。

(Laughter)

（笑）

So, actually, he tried making it compulsory.

於是，他最後採取了強制的措施。

The Prussian peasantry said,

普魯士的農民們說：

"We can't even get the dogs to eat these damn things.

“我們甚至沒辦法讓狗吃這些噁心的東西。

They are absolutely disgusting and they're good for nothing."

這些馬鈴薯令人作嘔，而且毫無用處。”

There are even records of people being executed

甚至有許許多多的人由於拒絕種植馬鈴薯

for refusing to grow potatoes.

而被處死。

So he tried plan B.

於是，他又想了另一個辦法。

He tried the marketing solution, which is he declared the potato

他採取了行銷的手段，宣佈馬鈴薯是宮廷御用蔬菜。

as a royal vegetable, and none but the royal family could consume it.

只有皇室家族成員才能享用。

And he planted it in a royal potato patch,

他在一片皇家馬鈴薯地中種植馬鈴薯，

with guards who had instructions

並派侍衛

to guard over it, night and day,

日夜加以看守，

but with secret instructions not to guard it very well.

但卻密令他們無需太過認真。

(Laughter)

（笑）

Now, 18th century peasants know that there is one

18世紀的農民們懂得一個生活常識，

pretty safe rule in life, which is if something is worth guarding,

那就是值得看守的東西，

it's worth stealing.

也值得偷。

Before long, there was a massive underground

不久，德國就出現了規模宏大的

potato-growing operation in Germany.

地下馬鈴薯種植。

What he'd effectively done is he'd re-branded the potato.

他非常成功的重塑了馬鈴薯的品牌形象。

It was an absolute masterpiece.

這絕對是一個經典。

I told this story and a gentleman from Turkey came up to me and said,

我講述了這個故事然後一位來自土耳其的先生過來找我說，

"Very, very good marketer, Fredrick the Great. But not a patch on Ataturk."

“非常非常好的行銷，Fredrick太偉大了。不過和Ataturk比起來還差早了。”

Ataturk, rather like Nicolas Sarkozy,

Ataturk，和Nicolas Sarkozy（法國總統）很像。

was very keen to discourage the wearing of a veil,

非常渴望拋棄土耳其社會戴面紗的習慣，

in Turkey, to modernize it.

使其具有現代氣息。

Now, boring people would have just simply banned the veil.

那麼，沒創意的人可能就會簡單的禁止佩戴面紗。

But that would have ended up with a lot of awful kickback

但是那會以強烈的負面反響而告終

and a hell of a lot of resistance.

以及鋪天蓋地的抵制。

Ataturk was a lateral thinker.

Ataturk運用橫向思維進行思考。

He made it compulsory for prostitutes to wear the veil.

他規定妓女必須佩戴面紗。

(Laughter)

（笑）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

I can't verify that fully, but it does not matter.

我並不能完全證實這個的真實性。不過這並沒關係。

There is your environmental problem solved, by the way, guys:

（關鍵是）社會環境問題解決了，順便提一句，各位：

All convicted child molesters

所有被判刑的猥褻兒童者

have to drive a Porsche Cayenne.

必須駕駛保時捷休旅車。

(Laughter)

（笑）

What Ataturk realized actually is two very fundamental things.

Ataturk揭示的實際是兩個基本事實。

Which is that, actually, first one,

其中，實際上，第一個是，

all value is actually relative.

所有的價值都是相對價值。

All value is perceived value.

所有的價值都是感知價值。

For those of you who don't speak Spanish, jugo de naranja -- it's actually the Spanish for "orange juice."

對於不會西班牙語的人，jugo de naranja--實際上就是西班牙語中“橘子汁”的意思。

Because actually it's not the dollar. It's actually the peso

因為實際上那不是美元，而是比索

in Buenos Aires. Very clever Buenos Aires street vendors

在布宜諾賽利斯，非常聰明的街頭售貨商

decided to practice price discrimination

決定實踐一下這種價格歧視

to the detriment of any passing gringo tourists.

用來占任何一個路過的美國佬的便宜。

As an advertising man, I have to admire that.

作為一個廣告人，我不能不對此表示欽佩。

But the first thing is that all value is subjective.

不過這一切都說明了第一個道理，也就是所有的價值都是主觀的。

Second point is that persuasion is often better than compulsion.

第二點是說服往往要比強制更有效。

These funny signs that flash your speed at you,

這些有趣的標誌在你瞬間路過的時候顯示出即時速度，

some of the new ones, on the bottom right,

有一些新的標誌，右下方，

now actually show a smiley face or a frowny face,

實際上顯示的是笑臉或者皺眉臉，

to act as an emotional trigger.

實際上在情緒層面觸發共鳴。

What's fascinating about these signs is they cost about 10 percent

這些標誌的了不起的地方在於，它們僅僅花費了傳統超速相機

of the running cost of a conventional speed camera,

十分之一的成本。

but they prevent twice as many accidents.

卻阻止了兩倍數量的事故的發生。

So, the bizarre thing, which is baffling

所以，這種奇怪的事情困擾著

to conventional, classically trained economists,

傳統的，古典主義經濟學家，

is that a weird little smiley face

也就是一個奇怪的微笑著的小頭像

has a better effect on changing your behavior

在改變個人行為上的作用

than the threat of a £60 fine and three penalty points.

比60英鎊的罰款和給予3個點數的罰分還要有效。

Tiny little behavioral economics detail:

一個很小的行為經濟學的細節：

in Italy, penalty points go backwards.

在義大利，罰分制度恰恰相反。

You start with 12 and they take them away.

從12分起，逐漸減少。

Because they found that loss aversion

因為人們發現厭惡因素的減少

is a more powerful influence on people's behavior.

在影響人們行為上具有更大的作用。

In Britain we tend to feel, "Whoa! Got another three!"

在英國我們往往會想，“哇哦，又吃了3分！”

Not so in Italy.

但是在義大利卻不是這樣。

Another fantastic case of creating intangible value

還有一個講述創造無形價值來代替物質價值的

to replace actual or material value, which remember, is what,

極好例子，就是，

after all, the environmental movement needs to be about:

終究，環保運動會觸及的問題：

This again is from Prussia, from, I think, about 1812, 1813.

這個，同樣，還是來自普魯士，我想，大概1812或1813年左右。

The wealthy Prussians, to help in the war against the French,

富裕的普魯士人，為了在普法戰爭中取得優勢，

were encouraged to give in all their jewelry.

被鼓勵捐出他們的全部珠寶。

And it was replaced with replica jewelry

然後用以生鐵鑄造的珠寶的

made of cast iron.

複製品代替。

Here's one: "Gold gab ich für Eisen, 1813."

瞧這個：“Gold gab ich für Eisen，1813年。”

The interesting thing is that for 50 years hence,

有趣的事情是從這之後的50年，

the highest status jewelry you could wear in Prussia

普魯士社會最高等級的珠寶

wasn't made of gold or diamonds.

不是金製或鑽石製。

It was made of cast iron.

而是生鐵製。

Because actually, never mind the actual intrinsic value

因為事實上，不考慮實際的內在價值

of having gold jewelry. This actually

比如金珠寶。這件珠寶

had symbolic value, badge value.

具有象徵價值，標記價值。

It said that your family had made a great sacrifice in the past.

它象徵著你的家庭在過去做出過很大的貢獻。

So, the modern equivalent would of course be this.

所以，在現代社會等價的東西應該類似這種。

(Laughter)

（笑）

But, actually, there is a thing, just as there are Veblen goods,

不過，事實上，有一種商品，正如一種叫做Veblen商品的東西，

where the value of the good depends on it being expensive and rare --

它的價值取決於本身的昂貴和稀有--

there are opposite kind of things

而它們是恰恰相反的一類東西

where actually the value in them depends on them being

其價值恰恰在於它們本身的

ubiquitous, classless and minimalistic.

普通性，大眾化和簡單性。

If you think about it, Shakerism was a proto-environmental movement.

如果你想一想的話，震顫派宗教儀式是一種原始的環保運動。

Adam Smith talks about 18th century America,

Adam Smith談論到18世紀的美國

where the prohibition against visible displays of wealth was so great,

當時抵制物質上的可視財富的運動如火如荼，

it was almost a block in the economy in New England,

幾乎對新英格蘭的經濟發展造成了阻礙，

because even wealthy farmers could find nothing to spend their money on

因為即使是富裕的農民也不知道該把錢花在哪，

without incurring the displeasure of their neighbors.

除非招致鄰居的鄙夷。

It's perfectly possible to create these social pressures

創造一種有利於社會平等的輿論壓力

which lead to more egalitarian societies.

是完全可能的。

What's also interesting, if you look at products

同樣有趣的是，如果你仔細觀察

that have a high component

高科技部件組成的產品

of what you might call messaging value,

或許你們會叫做資訊價值，

a high component of intangible value, versus their intrinsic value:

這類元件高度集成了無形價值，而不是內在價值：

They are often quite egalitarian.

它們經常很好的詮釋了平等主義。

In terms of dress, denim is perhaps the perfect example of something

就服裝而言，牛仔布或許是詮釋象徵價值（而不是物質價值）

which replaces material value with symbolic value.

的最好的例子了。

Coca-Cola. A bunch of you may be a load of pinkos,

可口可樂。也許你們中的某些人是傾左派的，

and you may not like the Coca-Cola company,

或許你並不喜歡可口可樂公司。

but it's worth remembering Andy Warhol's point about Coke.

不過Andy Warhol對於它的評價卻十分耐人尋味。

What Warhol said about Coke is, he said,

他說，

"What I really like about Coca-Cola is the president of the United States

“我之所以愛可口可樂是因為即使是美國總統喝的可樂

can't get a better Coke than the bum on the corner of the street."

也和街邊流浪漢手中的可樂別無二樣。”

Now, that is, actually, when you think about it -- we take it for granted --

實際上如果你仔細想想的話，我們都把它當做理所當然了--

it's actually a remarkable achievement,

但實際上是很了不起的成就，

to produce something that's that democratic.

如此民主的一種產品。

Now, we basically have to change our views slightly.

那麼，我們需要把自己的看法稍微轉變一下。

There is a basic view that real value involves making things,

基本的看法是（產品的）實際價值包括製作的過程，

involves labor. It involves engineering.

包括勞動力。如工程設計。

It involves limited raw materials.

包括有限的原材料。

And that what we add on top is kind of false. It's a fake version.

現在我們要加上一種好像虛化的東西。好像是不真實的。

And there is a reason for some suspicion and uncertainly about it.

當然許多的懷疑和不確定是有原因的。

It patently veers toward propaganda.

顯然這個因素就是宣傳作用。

However, what we do have now

然而，我們現在擁有的

is a much more variegated media ecosystem

是一個更加多樣化的媒介環境

in which to kind of create this kind of value, and it's much fairer.

在其中我們創造這種價值。這樣就合理多了。

When I grew up, this was basically the media environment of my childhood

當我長大了，我小時候的媒體環境差不多是這樣的

as translated into food.

可以理解為食物。

You had a monopoly supplier. On the left,

左邊這個，是唯一的提供者。

you have Rupert Murdoch, or the BBC.

當時還有Rupert Murdoch，或者BBC。

(Laughter)

（笑）

And on your right you have a dependent public

右邊是依賴性很強的大眾

which is pathetically grateful for anything you give it.

可憐的是，無論你提供什麼，他都會心存感激。

(Laughter)

（笑）

Nowadays, the user is actually involved.

現如今，用戶都已經進化了。

This is actually what's called, in the digital world, "user-generated content."

這個在數碼世界裏，實際上叫做“用戶為中心的實體。”

Although it's called agriculture in the world of food.

儘管叫做農業，在食物這個角度看。

(Laughter)

（笑）

This is actually called a mash-up,

這個實際上叫做“糅合”，

where you take content that someone else has produced

也就是你以其他人的生產結果為起點

and you do something new with it.

創造出新的東西。