Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • TOM SIMONITE: Hi.

  • Good morning.

  • Welcome to day three of Google I/O,

  • and what should be a fun conversation about machine

  • learning and artificial intelligence.

  • My name is Tom Simonite.

  • I'm San Francisco bureau chief for MIT Technology Review.

  • And like all of you, I've been hearing a lot recently

  • about the growing power of machine learning.

  • We've seen some striking results come out

  • of academic and industrial research labs,

  • and they've moved very quickly into the hands of developers,

  • who have been using them to make new products and services

  • and companies.

  • I'm joined by three people this morning

  • who can tell us about how this new technology

  • and the capabilities it brings are coming out into the world.

  • They are Aparna Chennapragada, who

  • is the director of product management

  • and worked on the Google Now mobile assistant,

  • Jeff Dean, who leads the Google Brain research group here

  • in Mountain View, and John Giannandrea,

  • who is head of search and machine intelligence at Google.

  • Thanks for joining me, all of you.

  • We're going to talk for about 30 minutes,

  • and then there will be time for questions from the floor.

  • John, why don't we start with you?

  • You could set the scene for us.

  • Artificial intelligence and machine learning

  • are not brand new concepts.

  • They've been around for a long time,

  • but we're suddenly hearing a lot more about them.

  • Large companies and small companies

  • are investing more in this technology,

  • and there's a lot of excitement.

  • You can even get a large number of people

  • to come to a talk about this thing early in the morning.

  • So what's going on?

  • Tell these people why they're here.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: What's going on?

  • Yeah, thanks, Tom.

  • I mean, I think in the last few years,

  • we've seen extraordinary results in fields that hadn't really

  • moved the needle for many years, like speech recognition

  • and image understanding.

  • The error rates are just falling dramatically,

  • mostly because of advances in deep neural networks,

  • so-called deep learning.

  • I think these techniques are not new.

  • People have been using neural networks for many, many years.

  • But a combination of events over the last few years

  • has made them much more effective,

  • and caused us to invest a lot in getting them

  • into the hands of developers.

  • People talk about it in terms of AI winters,

  • and things like this.

  • I think we're kind of an AI spring right now.

  • We're just seeing remarkable progress

  • across a huge number of fields.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And now, how long have you worked

  • in artificial intelligence, John?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Well, we started

  • investing heavily in this at Google about four years ago.

  • I mean, we've been working in these fields,

  • like speech recognition, for over a decade.

  • But we kind of got serious about our investments

  • about four years ago, and getting organized

  • to do things that ultimately resulted

  • in the release of things like TensorFlow, which

  • Jeff's team's worked on.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And we'll talk more about that later, I'm sure.

  • Aparna, give us a perspective from the view of someone

  • who builds products.

  • So John says this technology has suddenly

  • become more powerful and accurate and useful.

  • Does that open up new horizons for you,

  • when you're thinking about what you can build?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: Yeah, absolutely.

  • I think for me, these are great as a technology.

  • But as a means to an end, they're

  • powerful tool kits to help solve real problems, right?

  • And for us, as building products, and for you guys,

  • too, there's two ways that machine learning

  • changes the game.

  • One is that it can turbo charge existing use cases-- that

  • is, existing problems like speech recognition--

  • by dramatically changing some technical components

  • that power the product.

  • If you're building a voice enabled assistant, the word

  • error rate that John was talking about, as soon as it dropped,

  • we actually saw the usage go up.

  • So the product gets more usable as machine learning improves

  • the underlying engine.

  • Same thing with translation.

  • As translation gets better, Google Translate,

  • it scales to 100-plus languages.

  • And photos is a great example.

  • You've heard Sundar talk about it, too,

  • that as soon as you have better image understanding,

  • the photo labeling gets better, and therefore, I

  • can organize my photos.

  • So it's a means to an end.

  • That's one way, certainly, that we have seen.

  • But I think the second way that's, personally, far more

  • exciting to see is where it can unlock new product use cases.

  • So turbocharging existing use cases is one thing,

  • but where can you kind of see problems

  • that really weren't thought of as AI or data problems?

  • And thanks to mobile, here-- 3 billion phones-- a lot

  • of the real world problems are turning into AI problems,

  • right?

  • Transportation, health, and so on.

  • That's pretty exciting, too.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And so is one consequence of this

  • that we can make computers less annoying, do you think?

  • I mean, that would be nice.

  • We'd all had these experiences where

  • you have a very clear idea of what it is you're trying to do,

  • but it feels like the software is doing

  • everything it can to stop you.

  • Maybe that's a form of artificial intelligence, too.

  • I don't know.

  • But can you make more seamless experiences

  • that just make life easier?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: Yeah.

  • And I think in this case, again, one of the things

  • to think about is, how do you make sure-- especially

  • as you build products-- how do you

  • make sure your interface scales with the intelligence?

  • The UI needs to be proportional to AI.

  • I cannot believe I said some pseudo formula in front of Jeff

  • Dean.

  • But I think that's really important,

  • to make sure that the UI scales with the AI.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And Jeff, for people like Aparna,

  • building products, to do that, we

  • need this kind of translation step

  • which your group is working on.

  • So Google Brain is a research group.

  • Works in some very fundamental questions in its field.

  • But you also build this infrastructure,

  • which you're kind of inventing from scratch, that makes

  • it possible to use this stuff.

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • I mean, I think, obviously, in order

  • to make progress on these kinds of problems,

  • it's really important to be able to try lots of experiments

  • and do that as quickly as you can.

  • There's a very fundamental difference

  • between having an experiment take a few hours,

  • versus something that takes six weeks.

  • It's just a very different model of doing science.

  • And so, one of the things we work on

  • is trying to build really scalable systems that are also

  • flexible and easy to express new kinds of machine learning

  • ideas.

  • So that's how TensorFlow came about.

  • It's sort of our internal research vehicle,

  • but also robust enough to take something you've done and done

  • lots of experiments on, and then, when you get something

  • that works well, to take that and move it into a production

  • environment, run things on phones or in data

  • centers, on RTPUs, that we announced a couple days ago.

  • And that seamless transition from research

  • to putting things into real products

  • is what we're all about.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And so, TensorFlow is this very flexible package.

  • It's very valuable to Google.

  • You're building a lot of things on top of it.

  • But you're giving it away for free.

  • Have you thought this through?

  • Isn't this something you should be keeping closely held?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • There was actually a little bit of debate internally.

  • But I think we decided to open source it,

  • and it's got a nice Apache 2.0 license which basically

  • means you can take it and do pretty much whatever

  • you want with it.

  • And the reason we did that is several fold.

  • One is, we think it's a really good way of making research

  • ideas and machine learning propagate more quickly

  • throughout the community.

  • People can publish something they've done,

  • and people can pick up that thing

  • and reproduce those people's results or build on them.

  • And if you look on GitHub, there's

  • like 1,500 repositories, now, that mention TensorFlow,

  • and only five of them are from Google.

  • And so, it's people doing all kinds of stuff with TensorFlow.

  • And I think that free exchange of ideas and accelerating

  • of that is one of the main reasons we did that.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And where is this going?

  • So I imagine, right now, that TensorFlow is mostly

  • used by people who are quite familiar with machine learning.

  • But ultimately, the way I hear people

  • talk about machine learning, it's

  • just going to be used by everyone everywhere.

  • So can developers who don't have much

  • of a background in this stuff pick it up yet?

  • Is that possible?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • So I think, actually, there's a whole set

  • of ways in which people can take advantage of machine learning.

  • One is, as a fundamental machine learning researcher,

  • you want to develop new algorithms.

  • And that's going to be a relatively small fraction

  • of people in the world.

  • But as new algorithms and models are developed

  • to solve particular problems, those models

  • can be applied in lots of different kinds of things.

  • If you look at the use of machine learning

  • in the diabetic retinopathy stuff

  • that Sundar mentioned a couple days ago,

  • that's a very similar problem to a lot of other problems

  • where you're trying to look at an image

  • and detect some part of it that's unusual.

  • We have a similar problem of finding text

  • in Street View images so that we can read the text.

  • And that looks pretty similar to a model

  • to detect diseased parts of an eye, just different training

  • data, but the same model.

  • So I think the broader set of models

  • will be accessible to more and more people.

  • And then there's even an easier way,

  • where you don't really need much machine learning knowledge

  • at all, and that is to use pre-trained APIs.

  • Essentially, you can use our Cloud Vision API

  • or our Speech APIs very simply.

  • You just give us an image, and we give you back good stuff.

  • And as part of the TensorFlow flow open source,

  • we also released, for example, an inception model that

  • does image classification that's the same model as underlies

  • Google Photos.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • So will it be possible for someone-- maybe they're

  • an experienced builder of apps, but don't know much about

  • machine learning-- they could just

  • have an idea and kind of use these building blocks to put it

  • together?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • Actually, I think one of the reasons TensorFlow has taken

  • off, is the tutorials in TensorFlow are actually

  • quite good at illustrating six or seven important kinds

  • of models in machine learning, and showing people

  • how they work, stepping through both the machine learning

  • that's going on underneath, and also how you express them

  • in TensorFlow.

  • That's been pretty well received.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And Aparna, I think we've seen in the past

  • that when a new platform of mode of interaction comes forward,

  • we have to experiment with it for some time

  • before we figure out what works, right?

  • And sometimes, when we look back,

  • we might think, oh, those first generation

  • mobile apps were kind of clunky, and maybe not so smart.

  • How are we going with that process

  • here, where we're starting to have to understand

  • what types of interaction work?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: Yeah.

  • And I think it's one of the things that's not intuitive

  • when you start out, you rush out into a new area,

  • like we've all done.

  • So one experience, for example, when

  • we started working on Google Now, one thing we realized

  • is, it's really important to make sure

  • that, depending on the product domain, some of these black box

  • systems, you need to pay attention

  • to what we call internally as the wow to WTH ratio.

  • That is, as soon as you kind of say,

  • hey, there are some delightful magical moments, right?

  • But then, if you kind of get it wrong,

  • there's a high cost to the user.

  • So to give you an example, in Google Search,

  • let's say you search for, I don't know, Justin Timberlake,

  • and we got a slightly less relevant answer.

  • Not a big deal, right?

  • But then, if the assistant told you to sit in the car,

  • go drive to the airport, and you missed

  • your flight, what the hell?

  • So I think it's really important to get that ratio right,

  • especially in the early stages of this new platform.

  • The other thing we noticed also is

  • that explainability or interpretability really builds

  • trust in many of these cases.

  • So you want to be careful about looking

  • at which parts of the problem you use machine learning

  • and you drop this into.

  • You want to look at problems that are easy for machines

  • and hard for humans, the repetitive things,

  • and then make sure that those are the problems that you

  • throw machine learning against.

  • But you don't want to be unpredictable and inscrutable.

  • TOM SIMONITE: And one mode of interaction that everyone seems

  • to be very excited about, now, is this idea

  • of conversational interface.

  • So we saw the introduction on Wednesday of Google Assistant,

  • but lots of other companies are building these things, too.

  • Do we know that definitely works?

  • What do we know about how you design

  • a conversational interface, or what the limitations

  • and strengths are?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: I think, again, at a broad level,

  • you want to make sure that you can have this trust.

  • So [INAUDIBLE] domains make it easy.

  • So it's very hard to make a very horizontal system

  • work that works for anything.

  • But I'm actually pretty excited at the progress.

  • We just launched-- open sourced-- the sentence parser,

  • Parsey Mcparseface.

  • I just wanted to say that name.

  • But it's really exciting, because then you say,

  • OK, you're starting to see the beginning of conversational,

  • or at least a natural language sentence understanding,

  • and then you have building blocks that build on top of it.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And John, with your search hat on for a second,

  • we heard on Wednesday that, I think, 20% of US searches

  • are now done by voice.

  • So people have clearly got comfortable with this,

  • and you've managed to provide something

  • that they want to use.

  • Is the Assistant interface to search

  • going to grow in a similar way, do you think?

  • Is it going to take over a big chunk of people's search

  • queries?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah.

  • We think of the Assistant as a fundamentally different product

  • than search, and I think it's going

  • to be used in a different way.

  • But we've been working on what we

  • call voice search for many, many years,

  • and we have this evidence that people

  • like it and are using it.

  • And I would say our key differentiator, there, is just

  • the depth of search, and the number of questions

  • we can answer, and the kinds of complexities

  • that we can deal with.

  • I think language and dialogue is the big unsolved problem

  • in computer science.

  • So imagine you're reading an article

  • and then writing a shorter version of it.

  • That's currently beyond the state of the art.

  • I think the important thing about the open source release

  • we did of the parser is it's using TensorFlow as well.

  • So in the same way as Jeff explained,

  • the functionality of this in Google Photos for finding

  • your photos is actually available open source,

  • and people can actually play with it

  • and run a cloud version of it.

  • We feel the same way about natural language understanding,

  • and we have many more years of investment

  • to make in getting to really natural dialogue systems,

  • where you can say anything you want,

  • and we have a good shot of understanding it.

  • So for us, this is a journey.

  • Clearly, we have a fairly usable product in voice search today.

  • And the Assistant, we hope, when we launch

  • later this year, people will similarly

  • like to use it and find it useful.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Do you need a different monetization model

  • for the Assistant dialogue?

  • Is that something--

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: We're really focused, right now,

  • on building something that users like to use.

  • I think Google has a long history

  • of trying to build things that people find useful.

  • And if they find them useful, and they use them at scale,

  • then we'll figure out a way to actually have a business

  • to support that.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • So you mentioned that there are still

  • a lot of open research questions here,

  • so maybe we could talk about that a little bit.

  • As you described, there have been

  • some very striking improvements in machine learning recently,

  • but there's a lot that can't be done.

  • I mean, if I go to my daughter's preschool,

  • I would see young children learning and using

  • language in ways that your software can't match right now.

  • So can you give us a summary of the territory that's

  • still to be explored?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah.

  • There's a lot still to be done.

  • I think there's a couple of areas

  • which researchers around the world

  • are furiously trying to attack.

  • So one is learning from smaller numbers of examples.

  • Today, the learning systems that we have,

  • including deep neural networks, typically

  • require really large numbers of examples.

  • Which is why, as Jeff was describing,

  • they can take a long time to train,

  • and the experiment time can be slow.

  • So it's great that we can give systems

  • hundreds of thousands or millions of labeled examples,

  • but clearly, small children don't need to do that.

  • They can learn from very small numbers of examples.

  • So that's an open problem.

  • I think another very important problem in machine learning

  • is what the researchers call transfer learning, which

  • is learning something in one domain,

  • and then being able to apply it in another.

  • Right now, you have to build a system

  • to learn one particular task, and then that's not

  • transferable to another task.

  • So for example, the AlphaGo system that

  • won the Go Championship in Korea,

  • that system can't, a priori, play chess or tic tac toe.

  • So that's a big, big open problem

  • in machine learning that lots of people are interested in.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And Jeff, this is kind of on your group, to some extent,

  • isn't it?

  • You need to figure this out.

  • Are there particular avenues or recent results

  • that you would highlight that seem to be promising?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • I think we're making, actually, pretty significant progress

  • in doing a better job of language understanding.

  • I think, if you look at where computer vision was three

  • or four or five years ago, it was

  • kind of just starting to show signs of life,

  • in terms of really making progress.

  • And I think we're starting to see the same thing in language

  • understanding kinds of models, translation, parsing, question

  • answering kinds of things.

  • In terms of open problems, I think unsupervised

  • learning, being able to learn from observations

  • of the world that are not labeled,

  • and then occasionally getting a few labeled examples that

  • tell you, these are important things about the world

  • to pay attention to, that's really

  • one of the key open challenges in machine learning.

  • And one more, I would add, is, right now,

  • what you need a lot of machine learning expertise for

  • is to kind of device the right model structure

  • for a particular kind of problem.

  • For an image problem, I should use convolutional neural nets,

  • or for language problems, I should use this particular kind

  • of recurrent neural net.

  • And I think one of the things that

  • would be really powerful and amazing

  • is if the system itself could device the right structure

  • for the data it's observing.

  • So learning model structure concurrently

  • with trying to solve some set of tasks, I think,

  • would be a really great open research problem.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • So instead of you having to design the system

  • and then setting it loose to learn,

  • the learning system would build itself, to some extent?

  • JEFF DEAN: Right.

  • Right now, you kind of define the scaffolding of the model,

  • and then you fiddle with parameters

  • as part of the learning process, but you don't sort of

  • introduce new kinds of connections

  • in the model structure itself.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • OK.

  • And unsupervised learning, just giving it that label,

  • it makes it sound like one unitary problem, which

  • may not be true.

  • But will big progress on that come

  • from one flash of insight and a new algorithm,

  • or will it be-- I don't know-- a longer slog?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • If I knew, that would be [INAUDIBLE].

  • I have a feeling that it's not going to be, like,

  • 100 different things.

  • I feel like there's a few key insights

  • that new kinds of learning algorithms

  • could pick up on as to what aspects

  • of the world the model is observing are important.

  • And knowing which things are important

  • is one of the key things about unsupervised learning.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Aparna, so what Jeff's team kind of works out, eventually,

  • should come through into your hands,

  • and you could build stuff with it.

  • Is there something that you would really

  • like him to invent tomorrow, so you can start building

  • stuff with it the day after?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: Auto generate emails.

  • No, I'm kidding.

  • I do think, actually, what's interesting is, you've heard

  • these building blocks, right?

  • So machine perception, computer vision, wasn't a thing,

  • and now it's actually reliable.

  • Language understanding, it's getting there.

  • Translation is getting there.

  • To me, the next other building block you can make machines do

  • is hand-eye coordination.

  • So you've seen the robot arms video

  • that Sundar talked about and showed at the keynote,

  • but imagine if you could kind of have these rote tasks that

  • are harder, tedious for humans, but if you

  • had reliable hand-eye coordination built in, that's

  • in a learned system versus a controlled system code

  • that you usually write, and it's very brittle,

  • suddenly, it opens up a lot more opportunities.

  • Just off the top of my head, why isn't there

  • anything for, like, elderly care?

  • Like, you are an 80-year-old woman with a bad back,

  • and you're picking up things.

  • Why isn't there something there?

  • Or even something as mundane with natural language

  • understanding, right?

  • I have a seven-year-old.

  • I'm a mom of a 7-year-old.

  • Why isn't there something for, I don't know,

  • math homework, with natural language understanding?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: So I think one of things

  • we've learned in the last few years

  • is that things that are hard for people

  • to do, we can teach computers to do,

  • and things that are easy for us to do

  • are still the hard problems for computers.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • OK.

  • And does that mean we're still missing some big new field

  • we need to invent?

  • Because most of the things we've been talking about so far

  • have been built on top of this deep learning

  • and neural network.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: I think robotics work is interesting,

  • because it gives the computer system an embodiment

  • in the world, right?

  • So learning from tactile environments

  • is a new kind of learning, as opposed to just looking

  • at unsupervised or supervised.

  • Just reading text is a particular environment.

  • Perception, looking at images, looking at audio,

  • trying to understand what this song is,

  • that's another kind of problem.

  • I think interacting with the real world

  • is a whole other kind of problem.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • OK.

  • That's interesting.

  • Maybe this is a good time to talk a little bit more

  • about DeepMind.

  • I know that they are very interested in this idea

  • of embodiment, the idea you have to submerge this learning

  • agent in a world that it can learn from.

  • Can you explain how they're approaching this?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah, sure.

  • I mean, DeepMind is another research group

  • that we have at Google, and we work closely with them

  • all the time.

  • They are particularly interested in learning from simulations.

  • So they've done a lot of work with video games

  • and simulations of physical environments,

  • and that's one of the research directions that they have.

  • It's been very productive.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Is it just games?

  • Are they moving into different types of simulation?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Well, there's a very fine line

  • between a video game-- a three-dimensional video game--

  • and a physics simulation already environment, right?

  • I mean, some video games are, in fact,

  • full simulations of worlds, so there's not really

  • a bright line there.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And do DeepMind work on robotics?

  • They don't, I didn't think.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: They're doing a bunch of work

  • in a bunch of different fields, some of which

  • gets published, some of which is not.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • And the robot arms that we saw in the keynote on Wednesday,

  • are they within your group, Jeff?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yes.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • So can you tell us about that project?

  • JEFF DEAN: Sure.

  • So that was a collaboration between our group

  • and the robotics teams in Google X. Actually, what happened was,

  • one of our researchers discovered

  • that the robotics team, actually,

  • had 20 unused arms sitting in a closet somewhere.

  • They were a model that was going to be discontinued

  • and not actually used.

  • So we're like, hey, we should set these up in a room.

  • And basically, just the idea of having

  • a little bit larger scale robotics test environment

  • than just one arm, which is what you typically

  • have in a physical robotics lab, would

  • make it possible to do a bit more exploratory research.

  • So one of the first things we did with that was just

  • have the robots learn to pick up objects.

  • And one of the nice properties that has,

  • it's a completely supervised problem.

  • The robot can try to grab something,

  • and if it closes its griper all the way, it failed.

  • And if it didn't close it all the way,

  • and it picked something up, it succeeded.

  • And so it's learning from raw camera pixel inputs

  • directly to torque motor controls.

  • And there's just a neural net there

  • that's trained to pick things up based on the observations it's

  • making of things as it approaches a particular object.

  • TOM SIMONITE: And is that quite a slow process?

  • I mean, that fact that you have multiple arms going

  • at once made me think that, maybe, you

  • were trying to maximize your throughput, or something.

  • JEFF DEAN: Right.

  • So if you have 20 arms, you get 20 times as much experience.

  • And if you think about how small kids learn to pick stuff up,

  • it takes them maybe a year, or something,

  • to go from being able to move their arm to really be

  • able to grasp simple objects.

  • And by parallelizing this across more arms,

  • you can pool the experience of the robotic arms a bit.

  • TOM SIMONITE: I see.

  • OK.

  • JEFF DEAN: And they need less sleep.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • John, at the start of the session,

  • you referred to this concept of AI winter,

  • and you said you thought it was spring.

  • When do we know that it's summer?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Summer follows spring.

  • I mean, there's still a lot of unsolved problems.

  • I think problems around dialogue and language

  • are the ones that I'm particularly interested in.

  • And so, until we can teach a computer to really read,

  • I don't think we can declare that it's summer.

  • I mean, if you can imagine a computer's really reading

  • and internalizing a document.

  • So it's interesting.

  • So translation is reading a paragraph in one language

  • and writing it in another language.

  • In order to do that really, really well,

  • you have to be able to paraphrase.

  • You have to be able to reorder words, and so on and so

  • forth So imagine translating something

  • from English to English.

  • So you read a paragraph, and you write a different paragraph.

  • If we could do that, I think I would declare summer.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Reading is-- well, there are different levels of reading,

  • aren't there?

  • Do you know--

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: If you can paraphrase, then you really--

  • TOM SIMONITE: Then you think that-- if you

  • could reach that level.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: And actually understood--

  • TOM SIMONITE: Then you've got some argument.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: And to a certain extent,

  • today, our translation systems, which

  • are not perfect by any means, are getting better.

  • They do do some of that.

  • They do do some paraphrasing.

  • They do do some re-ordering.

  • They do do a remarkable amount of language understanding.

  • So I'm hopeful researchers around the world

  • will get there.

  • And it's very important to us that our natural language

  • APIs become part of our cloud platform,

  • and that people can experiment with it, and help.

  • JEFF DEAN: One thing I would say is,

  • I don't think there's going to be

  • this abrupt line between spring and summer, right?

  • There's going to be developments that push the state of the art

  • forward in lots of different areas in kind

  • of this smooth gradient of capabilities.

  • And at some point, something becomes

  • possible that didn't used to be possible,

  • and people kind of move the goalposts

  • of what they think of as really, truly hard problems.

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: The classic joke, right?

  • It's only AI until it starts working,

  • and then it's computer science.

  • JEFF DEAN: Like, if you'd asked me four years ago,

  • could a computer write a sentence

  • given an image as input?

  • And I would have said, I don't think they

  • can do that for a little while.

  • And they can actually do that today,

  • and that's kind of a good example of something

  • that has made a lot of progress in the last few years.

  • And now you sort of say, OK, that's in our tool

  • chest of capabilities.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • But if we're not that great at predicting

  • how the progress goes, does that mean we can't see winter,

  • if it comes back?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: If we stop seeing progress,

  • then I think we could question what the future's going

  • to look like.

  • But today, the rate of-- I think researchers in the field

  • are excited about this, and maybe the field

  • is a little bit over-hyped because of the rate of progress

  • we're seeing.

  • Because something like speech recognition,

  • which didn't work for my wife five years ago,

  • and now works flawlessly, because image identification

  • is now working better than human raters for many fields.

  • So there's these narrow fields for which algorithms are not

  • superhuman in their capabilities.

  • So we're seeing tremendous progress.

  • And so it's very exciting for people working in this field.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Great.

  • I should just note that, in a couple of minutes,

  • we will open up the floor for questions.

  • There are microphones here and here in the main seating area,

  • and there's one microphone up in the press area, which

  • I can't see right now, but hopefully you

  • can figure out where it is.

  • Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, has spoken a lot recently

  • about how he thinks we're moving from a world which

  • is mobile-first to AI-first.

  • I'm interested to hear what you think that means.

  • Maybe, Aparna, you could speak to that.

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: I interpret

  • it a couple different ways.

  • One is, if you look at how mobile's changed,

  • how you experience computing, it's

  • not happened at one level of the stack, right?

  • It's at the interface level, it's

  • at the information level, and infrastructure.

  • And I think that's the same thing that's

  • going to happen with AI and any of these machine learning

  • techniques, which is, you'll have infrastructure layer

  • improvements.

  • You saw the announcement about TPU.

  • You'll have a bunch of algorithms and models

  • improvements at the intelligence and information layer,

  • and there will be interface changes.

  • So the best UI is probably no UI.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • OK.

  • John, what does AI-first mean to you?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: I think it means

  • that this assistant kind of layer is available to you

  • wherever you are.

  • Whether you're in your car, or whether it's

  • ambient in your house, or whether you're

  • using your mobile device or laptop,

  • that there is this smart assistance

  • that you find very quietly useful to you all the time.

  • Kind of how Google search is for most people today.

  • I think most people would not want search engines taken away

  • from them, right?

  • So I think that being that useful to people,

  • so that people take it for granted,

  • and then it's ambient across all your devices,

  • is what AI-first means to me.

  • TOM SIMONITE: And we're in the early stages of this,

  • do you think?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah.

  • It's a journey, I think.

  • It's a multi-year journey

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Great.

  • So thanks for a fascinating conversation.

  • Now, we'll let someone else ask the questions for a little bit.

  • I will alternate between the press mic and the mics

  • down here at the front.

  • Please keep your questions short,

  • so we can get through more of them,

  • and make sure they're questions, not statements.

  • We will start with the press mic, wherever it is.

  • MALE SPEAKER: There's nobody there.

  • TOM SIMONITE: I really doubt the press has no questions.

  • What's happening?

  • Why don't we start with the developer mic

  • right here on the right?

  • AUDIENCE: I have a philosophical question about prejudice.

  • People tend to have prejudice.

  • Do you think this is a step stone

  • that we need to take in artificial intelligence,

  • and how would society accept that?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: I'm not sure I understand the question.

  • Some people have prejudice, and?

  • AUDIENCE: Some people have the tendency

  • to have prejudice, which might lead to behaviors

  • such as discrimination.

  • TOM SIMONITE: So the question is,

  • will the systems that the people build have biases?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Oh, I see.

  • I see.

  • Will people's prejudices creep into machine learning systems?

  • I think that is a risk.

  • I think it all depends on the training data that we choose.

  • We've already seen some issues with this kind of problem.

  • So I think it all depends on carefully

  • selecting training data, particularly

  • for supervised systems.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Is the press mic working, at this point?

  • SEAN HOLLISTER: Hi.

  • I'm Sean Hollister, up here in the press mic.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Great.

  • Go for it.

  • SEAN HOLLISTER: Hi, there.

  • I wanted to ask about the role of privacy in machine learning.

  • You need a lot of data to make these observations

  • and to help people with machine learning.

  • I give all my photos to Google Photos,

  • and I wonder what happens to them afterwards.

  • What allows Google to see what they

  • are, and is that ever shared in any way with anyone else?

  • Personally, I don't care very much about that.

  • I'm not worried my photos are going

  • to get out to other folks, but where do they go?

  • What do you do with them?

  • And to what degree are they protected?

  • JEFF DEAN: Do you want to take that one?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: I think this

  • is one of the most important things

  • that we look at across products.

  • So even with photos, or Google Now,

  • or voice, and all of these things.

  • There's actually two principles we codify into building this.

  • One is, there's a very explicit--

  • it's a very transparent contract between the user

  • and the product that is, you basically know what benefits

  • you're getting with the data, and the data

  • is there to help you.

  • That's one principle.

  • But the second is, by default, it's an opt-in experience.

  • You're in the driver's seat.

  • In some sense, let's say, you're saying,

  • hey, I do want to get traffic information when

  • I'm on Shoreline, because it's clogged up to Shoreline

  • Amphitheater, you, of course, need the system

  • to know where your location is.

  • Because you don't want to know how the traffic is in Napa.

  • So having that contract be transparent, but also

  • an opt-in, I think it really addresses the equation.

  • But I think the other thing to add in here

  • is also that, by definition, all of these are for your eyes

  • only, right?

  • In terms of, like, all your data is yours, and that's an axiom.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: And to answer his question,

  • we would never share his photos.

  • We train models based on other photos that are not yours,

  • and then the machine looks at your photos,

  • and it can label it, but we would never

  • share your private photo there.

  • SEAN HOLLISTER: To what degree is advertising

  • anonymously-targeted at folks like me,

  • based on the contents of things I upload,

  • little inferences you make in the meta data?

  • Is any of that going to advertisers in any way,

  • even in aggregate, hey, this is a person who

  • seems to like dogs?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: For your photos?

  • No.

  • Absolutely not.

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: No.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Let's go to this mic right here.

  • AUDIENCE: My questions is for Aparna, about,

  • what is the thought process behind creating a new product?

  • Because there are so many things that these guys are creating.

  • So how do you go from-- because it's kind of obvious right

  • now to see if you have my emails,

  • and you know that I'm traveling tomorrow to New York,

  • it's kind of simple to do that on my calendar

  • and create an event.

  • How do you go from robotic arms, trying

  • to understand how to get things, to an actual product?

  • The question is, what is the thought process behind it?

  • APARNA CHENNAPRAGADA: Yeah.

  • I'll give you the short version of it.

  • And, obviously, there's a longer version of it.

  • Wait for the medium post.

  • But I think the short version of it

  • is, to echo one thing JG said, you

  • want to pick problems that are easy for machines

  • and hard for humans.

  • So AI plus machine learning is not

  • going to turn a non-problem into a real problem

  • that people need solving.

  • It's like, you can take Christopher Nolan and Ben

  • Affleck, and you can still end up with Batman Versus Superman.

  • So you want to make sure that the problem you're solving

  • is a real one.

  • Many of our failures, even internally

  • and external, like frenzy around bots and AI,

  • is when you kid yourself that the problem needs solving.

  • And the second one, the second quick insight there,

  • is that you also want to build an iterative model.

  • That is, you want to kind of start small, and say, hey,

  • travel needs some assistance.

  • What are the top five things that people need help with?

  • And see which of these things can scale.

  • JEFF DEAN: I would add one thing to that,

  • which is, often, we're doing research

  • on a particular kind of problem.

  • And then, when we have something we think is useful,

  • we'll share that internally, as presentations or whatever,

  • and maybe highlight a few places where

  • we think this kind of technology could be used.

  • And that's sort of a good way to inform the product designers

  • about what kinds of things are now possible that

  • didn't used to be possible.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Let's have another question from the press section up there.

  • AUDIENCE: Yeah.

  • There's a lot of talk, lately, about sort of a fear of AI.

  • Elon Musk likened it to summoning the demon.

  • Whether that's overblown or not, whether it's

  • perception versus reality, there seems

  • to be a lot of mistrust or fear of going

  • too far in this direction.

  • How much stock you put into that?

  • And how do you win the trust of the public, when

  • you show experiments like the robot arm thing

  • on the keynote, which was really cool, but sort

  • of simultaneously creepy at the same time?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: So I get this question a lot.

  • I think there's this notion that's

  • been in the press for the last couple of years

  • about so-called super intelligence,

  • that somehow AI will beget more AI,

  • and then it will be exponential.

  • I think researchers in the field don't put much stock in that.

  • I don't think we think it's a real concern yet.

  • In fact, I think we're a long way away

  • from it being a concern.

  • There are some researchers who actually

  • think about these ethical problems,

  • and think about AI safety, and we

  • think that's really important.

  • And we work on this stuff with them,

  • and we support that kind of work.

  • But I think it's a concern that is decades and decades away.

  • It's also conflated with the fact

  • that people look at things like robots learning

  • to pick things up, and that's somehow

  • inherently scary to people.

  • I think it's our job, when we bring products

  • to market, to do it in a thoughtful way

  • that people find genuinely useful.

  • So a good example I would give you is, in Google products,

  • when you're looking for a place, like a coffee shop

  • or something, we'll show you when it's busy.

  • And that's the product of fairly advanced machine learning

  • that takes aggregate signals in a privacy-preserving way

  • and says, yeah, this coffee shop is really

  • busy on a Saturday morning.

  • That doesn't seem scary to me, right?

  • That doesn't seem anything like a bad thing

  • to bring into the world.

  • So I think there's a bit of a disconnect between the somewhat

  • extended hype, and the actual use of this technology

  • in everyday products.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Next question.

  • AUDIENCE: Thank you.

  • So given Google's source of revenue

  • and the high use of ad blockers, is there

  • any possibility of using machine learning

  • to maybe ensure that the appropriate ads are served?

  • Or if there's multiple versions of the same ad,

  • that the ad that would apply most to me

  • would be served to me, and to a different user,

  • a different version, and things like that?

  • Is that on the roadmap?

  • JEFF DEAN: Yeah.

  • I think, in general, there's a lot

  • of potential applications of machine

  • learning to advertising.

  • Google has actually been using machine

  • learning in our advertising system for more than a decade.

  • And I think one of the things about deciding

  • what ads to show to users is, you

  • want them to be relevant and useful to that user.

  • And it's better to not show an ad at all,

  • if you don't have something that seems plausibly relevant.

  • And that's always been Google's advertising philosophy.

  • And other websites on the web don't necessarily quite

  • have the same balance, in that respect.

  • But I do think there's plenty of opportunity to continue

  • to improve advertising systems and make them better,

  • so that you see less ads, but they're actually more useful.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Next question from at the top.

  • JACK CLARK: Jack Clark with Bloomberg News.

  • So how do you differentiate to the user

  • between a sponsored advert, and one that is provided by your AI

  • naturally?

  • How do I know that the burger joint you're suggesting

  • is like a paid-for link, or is it a genuine link?

  • JEFF DEAN: So in our user interfaces,

  • we always clearly delimit advertisements.

  • And in general, all ads that we show

  • are selected algorithmically by our systems.

  • They're not like, you can just give us an ad,

  • and we will always show it to someone.

  • We always decide what is the likelihood

  • that this ad is going to be useful to someone,

  • before we decide to show that advertiser's ad.

  • JACK CLARK: Does this extend to stuff like Google Home, where

  • it will say, this is a sponsored restaurant

  • we're going to send you to.

  • JEFF DEAN: I don't know that product.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: I mean, we haven't

  • launched Google Home yet.

  • So a lot of these product decisions are still to be made.

  • I think we do, as a general rule,

  • clearly identify when something is sponsored

  • versus when it's organic.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Next question here.

  • AUDIENCE: Hi.

  • This is a question for Jeff Dean.

  • I'm very much intrigued by the Google Brain project

  • that you're doing.

  • Very cool t-shirt.

  • The question is, what is the road map of that,

  • and how does it relate to the point of singularity?

  • JEFF DEAN: Aha.

  • So the road map of-- this is sort of the project code name

  • for the team that I work on.

  • Basically, the team was developed

  • to investigate the use of advanced methods

  • in machine learning to solve difficult problems in AI.

  • And we're continuing to work on pushing the state

  • of the art in that area.

  • And I think that means working in lots of different areas,

  • building the right kinds of hardware with TPUs,

  • building the right systems infrastructure with things

  • like TensorFlow.

  • Solving the right research problems

  • that are not connected to products,

  • and then figuring out ways in which machine learning can

  • be used to advance different kinds of fields,

  • as we solve different problems along the road.

  • I'm not a big believer in the singularity.

  • I think all exponentials look like exponentials

  • at the beginning, but then they run out of stuff.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Thanks for the question.

  • Back to the pressbox.

  • STEVEN MAX PATTERSON: Hi.

  • Steven Max Patterson, IDG.

  • I was looking at Google Home and Google Assistant,

  • and it looks like it's really a platform.

  • And it's a composite of other platforms,

  • like the Knowledge Graph, Google Cloud Speech, Google machine

  • learning, the Awareness API.

  • Is this a feature that other consumer device manufacturers

  • could include, and is that the intent and direction of Google,

  • is to make this a platform?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: It's definitely

  • the case that most of our machine learning APIs

  • are migrating to the cloud platform, which enables people

  • to use, for example, our speech capabilities in other products.

  • I think the Google Assistant is intended to be, actually,

  • a holistic product delivered from Google.

  • That makes sense.

  • But it may make sense to syndicate

  • that to other manufacturers at some point.

  • We don't have any plans to do that today.

  • But in general, we're trying to be

  • as open as we can with the component pieces

  • that you just mentioned, and make

  • them available as Cloud APIs, and in many cases,

  • as open source solutions as well.

  • JEFF DEAN: Right.

  • I think one of the things about that

  • is, making those individual pieces available

  • enables everyone in the world to take advantage of some

  • of the machine learning research we've done,

  • and be able to do things like label images,

  • or do speech recognition really well.

  • And then they can go off and build

  • really cool, amazing things that aren't necessarily

  • the kinds of things we're working on.

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah, and many companies are doing this today.

  • They're using our translate APIs.

  • They're using our Cloud Speech APIs today.

  • TOM SIMONITE: Right.

  • We have time for one last quick question from this mic here.

  • AUDIENCE: Hi.

  • I'm [INAUDIBLE].

  • John, you said that you would declare summer

  • if, in language understanding, it

  • would be able to translate from one paragraph in English

  • to another paragraph in English.

  • Don't you think that making that possible requires

  • really complete understanding of the world, and everything

  • that's going on, just to catch the emotional level that

  • is in the paragraph, or even the physical understanding

  • of the world around us?

  • JOHN GIANNANDREA: Yeah, I do.

  • I use that example because it is really, really hard.

  • So I don't think we're going to be done for many, many years.

  • I think there's a lot of work to do.

  • We built the Google Knowledge Graph, in part,

  • to answer that question, so that we actually

  • had some semantic understanding of at least

  • the things in the world, and some of the relationships

  • between them.

  • But yeah, it's a very hard problem.

  • And I used that example because it's

  • pretty clear we won't be done for a long time.

  • TOM SIMONITE: OK.

  • Sorry, there's no time for other questions.

  • Thanks for the question.

  • A good forward-looking note to end on.

  • We'll see how it works out over the coming years.

  • Thank you for joining me, all of you on stage,

  • and thanks for the questions and coming for the session.

  • [MUSIC PLAYING]

TOM SIMONITE: Hi.

字幕與單字

單字即點即查 點擊單字可以查詢單字解釋

A2 初級 美國腔

機器學習。谷歌的願景--谷歌I/O 2016 (Machine Learning: Google's Vision - Google I/O 2016)

  • 404 24
    William Liang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字