Name: TED】Talithia Williams:擁有你身體的數據（Talithia Williams：Own your body's data）。 (【TED】Talithia Williams: Own your body's data (Talithia Williams: Own your body's data))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:08:21.000Z
Duration: 17 min 8 s

頻率副詞

情態助動詞 A2

and the stories that could be told with numbers.

I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at

how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.

對於我爸媽用數字欺騙我感到沮喪

"Talithia, if I've told you once I've told you a thousand times."

泰莉西雅，我跟你說一次 就代表我已經跟你說過一千次了

其中有兩次還不是我的錯 (笑聲)

I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.

我覺得這是我拿到統計學博士的其中一個理由

what are people trying to hide with numbers?

大家究竟想用數字隱藏什麼事情

Donald and I were pregnant with our third child

and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,

what some of you may refer to as being overdue.

being within the 95 percent confidence interval.

it tests whether or not the baby is feeling any type of undue stress.

這種測試是為了知道 寶寶是否承受太大的壓力

And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,

通常在醫院很難遇到自己本來的醫生

just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day.

都是由剛好當天值班的醫生看診

So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes

於是我們就進去診間做壓力測試

"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."

你的寶寶承受胎壓了 我們要幫你催生

Now, as a statistician, what's my response?

身為統計學家，我的回答是什麼呢?

the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,

the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone

and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be

"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?

我就問 有可能這是我的心率嗎?

He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."

"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least

there is no reason to leave that baby inside,

根本沒有理由 還要把寶寶留在你肚子裡

I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?

我說 我們為什麼不重頭再來一次？

I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.

才能確定數據代表的意思 (笑聲)

"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."

"Your chances of having a miscarriage double

過了預產期後，你流產的可能性

when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."

整整多了一倍 讓我們幫你準備病房吧

Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?

哇，那身為統計學家 我的回答是什麼呢?

I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.

我每天都在分析可能性 還輪得到你告訴我

Do I go from a 30-percent chance to a 60-percent chance?

我流產可能性從 30% 提升至 60% 的意思嗎?

Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?

他說 不完全是，不過可能性加倍

and we really just want what's best for the baby."

我們只想為寶寶提供最好的方法

我一點也不害怕 試著用另一個角度思考

I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,

And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,

I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many

are going to miscarry just after their due date?"

有多少人會在過了預產期後就流產？

I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances

Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us

所以在這個點上 這個數據無法說服我們夫妻倆

and so then we proceed to have a conversation

about how inductions lead to a higher rate

of Cesarean sections, and if at all possible we'd like to avoid that.

如果有可能的話，我們就盡可能要避開它

"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."

我覺得我的預產期一點也不準確

assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,

sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 —

TED】Talithia Williams:擁有你身體的數據（Talithia Williams：Own your body's data）。 (【TED】Talithia Williams: Own your body's data (Talithia Williams: Own your body's data))