that I could get from data

從數據取得資訊

and the stories that could be told with numbers.

以及用數字所傳遞的故事

I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at

我還記得成長的過程中

how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.

對於我爸媽用數字欺騙我感到沮喪

"Talithia, if I've told you once I've told you a thousand times."

泰莉西雅，我跟你說一次 就代表我已經跟你說過一千次了

No dad, you've only told me 17 times

爸，你只跟我說17次而已

and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)

其中有兩次還不是我的錯 (笑聲)

I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.

我覺得這是我拿到統計學博士的其中一個理由

I always wanted to know,

我總是想知道

what are people trying to hide with numbers?

大家究竟想用數字隱藏什麼事情

As a statistician,

身為統計學家

I want people to show me the data

我希望大家能拿數據給我看

so I can decide for myself.

這樣我才能替自己下決定

Donald and I were pregnant with our third child

唐納和我當時有了第三個小孩

and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,

那時候寶寶41週半

what some of you may refer to as being overdue.

有些人會說這已經過了預產期

Statisticians, we call that

我們統計學家稱這為

being within the 95 percent confidence interval.

95% 以下的信賴區間

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And at this point in the process

在這個階段

we had to come in every couple of days

每幾天我們就要來醫院

to do a stress test on the baby,

讓寶寶接受壓力測試

and this is just routine,

這只是例行公事而已

it tests whether or not the baby is feeling any type of undue stress.

這種測試是為了知道 寶寶是否承受太大的壓力

And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,

通常在醫院很難遇到自己本來的醫生

just whoever happens to be working at the hospital that day.

都是由剛好當天值班的醫生看診

So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes

於是我們就進去診間做壓力測試

the doctor comes out and he says,

20分鐘後醫生出來，他說：

"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."

你的寶寶承受胎壓了 我們要幫你催生

Now, as a statistician, what's my response?

身為統計學家，我的回答是什麼呢?

Show me the data!

就是讓我看數據!

So then he proceeds to tell us

接下來醫生告訴我們

the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,

寶寶的心率追蹤持續 18 分鐘

the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone

寶寶的心率落在正常的區間內

and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be

但有兩分鐘的時間內變成是

my heart rate zone and I said,

我的心率區間

"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?

我就問 有可能這是我的心率嗎?

I was moving around a little bit,

我有稍微移動

it's hard to lay still on your back,

讓懷孕 41 週半的孕婦

41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.

躺平 20 分鐘真的很困難

Maybe it was shifting around."

也許檢查的位置稍微跑掉了

He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."

醫生說 我們不想要冒任何險

I said okay.

我說當然好

I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks

我又問 要是我現在懷孕 36 週

with this same data?

也有跟這情況一樣的數據

Would your decision be to induce?"

你還會決定要催生嗎？

"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least

不，我會等到你至少 38 週

38 weeks, but you are almost 42,

可是你現在都快 42 週了

there is no reason to leave that baby inside,

根本沒有理由 還要把寶寶留在你肚子裡

let's get you a room."

讓我們幫你準備病房吧

I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?

我說 我們為什麼不重頭再來一次？

We can collect more data.

我們可以收集更多數據

I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.

我可以試著穩穩地躺 20 分種

We can average the two and see

我們再平均這兩次的數據

what that means. (Laughter)

才能確定數據代表的意思 (笑聲)

And he goes,

他接著說

"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."

女士，我不希望你流產

That makes three of us.

我們三個人都不想啊

And then he says,

他接著說

"Your chances of having a miscarriage double

過了預產期後，你流產的可能性

when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."

整整多了一倍 讓我們幫你準備病房吧

Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?

哇，那身為統計學家 我的回答是什麼呢?

Show me the data!

讓我看數據!

Dude, you're talking chances,

老兄，你說可能性

I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.

我每天都在分析可能性 還輪得到你告訴我

Let's talk chances. (Laughter)

那我們就來談可能性 (笑聲)

Let's talk chances.

我們就來談可能性

So I say, "Okay, great.

於是我說 那好

Do I go from a 30-percent chance to a 60-percent chance?

我流產可能性從 30% 提升至 60% 的意思嗎?

Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?

流產的可能性到底是多少?

And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,

他說 不完全是，不過可能性加倍

and we really just want what's best for the baby."

我們只想為寶寶提供最好的方法

Undaunted, I try a different angle.

我一點也不害怕 試著用另一個角度思考

I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,

我說 那一千位足月孕婦中

how many of them are going to miscarry

有幾位會在預產期前

just before their due date?

就流產？

And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,

醫生看著我和唐納

and he goes, about one in 1,000.

他說大概一千位之中只有一位

I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many

我說 那這一千位足月孕婦

are going to miscarry just after their due date?"

有多少人會在過了預產期後就流產？

"About two." (Laughter)

大約兩位 (笑聲)

I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances

我說 那麼你說的可能性

go from a 0.1-percent chance

是從 0.1%

to a 0.2-percent chance."

上升至 0.2% 對吧

Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us

所以在這個點上 這個數據無法說服我們夫妻倆

that we need to be induced,

讓我們催生寶寶

and so then we proceed to have a conversation

接下來我們討論

about how inductions lead to a higher rate

催生讓剖腹產的機率變高了

of Cesarean sections, and if at all possible we'd like to avoid that.

如果有可能的話，我們就盡可能要避開它

And then I said,

於是我就說

"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."

我覺得我的預產期一點也不準確

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And so this really stunned him

醫生聽到後有些錯愕

and he looked sort of puzzled

他看起來有點困惑

and I said, "You may not know this,

我就說 你可能不知道

but pregnancy due dates are calculated

懷孕預產期的計算方法

assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,

是建立在你有標準28天的經期

and my cycle ranges —

而我的經期不固定

sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 —

有時候 27 天，有時候到 38 天

and I have been collecting the data to prove it.

而我也一直收集數據來證明這一切

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And so we ended up leaving the hospital that day without being induced.

結果當天我們沒有進行 催生手術就離開醫院

We actually had to sign a waiver to walk out of the hospital.

也必須要簽下切結書 才能夠離開醫院

And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your doctors,

我並不是要鼓吹大家不聽醫生的話

because even with our first child,

因為即使是我們的第一個孩子

we were induced at 38 weeks; cervical fluid was low.

也是在 38 週時就催生 是因為子宮頸黏液偏低

I'm not anti-medical intervention.

所以我並不反對醫學的介入

But why were confident to leave that day?

不過那天我們為什麼可以 自信滿滿地離開醫院呢?

Well, we had data that told a different story.

這是因為我們的數據講的 是不同的故事

We had been collecting data for six years.

過去六年我們持續收集數據

I had this temperature data,

我所記錄的溫度數據

and it told a different story.

又是另外一個故事了

In fact, we could probably pretty accurately estimate conception.

其實我們應該可以 準確地預測受孕時間

Yeah, that's a story you want to tell

這種故事你就會想要

at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)

在小孩婚宴上說了 (笑聲)

I remember like it was yesterday.

這好像昨天才剛發生

My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees

當我看著你爸的雙眼時

as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)

我的體溫是發燙的 36.5 度 (笑聲)

Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years, we're telling that story.

是的，過了 22 年後 我們就會說這個故事

But we were confident to leave because we had been collecting data.

我們勇敢地離開醫院是因為 我們都一直都在收集數據

Now, what does that data look like?

這些數據顯示些什麼呢?

Here's a standard chart

這是女性月經週期中

of a woman's waking body temperature

基礎體溫的

during the course of a cycle.

標準圖表

So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle

從此次月經週期的開始

till the beginning of the next.

到下一次月經來臨前

You'll see that the temperature is not random.

你會發現溫度是規律的

Clearly there is a low pattern

在月經週期開始時

at the beginning of her cycle

會很明顯地看到溫度偏低

and then you see this jump and then a higher

之後會看到溫度拉高

set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.

接近月經週期結束前又一波高溫

So what's happening here?

這裡發生什麼事?

What is that data telling you?

這些數據表達些什麼呢?

Well, ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,

女士們，在你們月經週期一開始時

the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen

荷爾蒙雌激素主導你的身體

causes a suppression of your body temperature.

雌激素會幫身體降溫

And at ovulation, your body releases an egg

在排卵期時，你的身體會排卵

and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.

此時黃體激素主導身體，黃體-激素

And so your body heats up in anticipation

你的體溫會預先升高

of housing this new little fertilized egg.

為這顆小小的新受精卵提供居住地

So why this temperature jump?

那為什麼溫度會突然升高呢?

Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs.

試想有隻鳥坐在牠的蛋上面

Why is she sitting on them?

為什麼要坐在蛋的上面?

She wants to keep them warm,

因為鳥媽媽要讓蛋保持溫暖

protect them and keep them warm.

保護蛋並且讓蛋維持溫度

Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,

各位女士，這就是我們身體 每個月所做的事情

they heat up in anticipation

身體會先預熱

of keeping a new little life warm.

才能讓這個新生命保持溫暖

And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,

如果沒有任何事情發生 假使你沒有懷孕

then estrogen takes back over and that cycle starts all over again.

雌激素就拿回主控權 所有週期又會重新再開始一次

But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you

不過要是妳懷孕了，有時候

actually see another shift in your temperatures

你會看到體溫又有變化

and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.

在懷孕的九個月內體溫會偏高

That's why you see those pregnant women just sweating and hot,

這就是為什麼你會發現 懷孕婦女都在流汗又覺得熱

because their temperatures are high.

這是因為她們的體溫偏高

Here's a chart that we had about three or four years ago.

這是三、四年前我們用的圖表

We were really very excited about this chart.

我們對這圖表真的很開心

You'll see the low temperature level

你可以看見這低溫的數據

and then a shift and for about five days,

之後溫度轉變，並且持續五天

that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel

這時候卵子出發

down the fallopian tube and implant,

順著輸卵管而下然後著床

and then you see those temperatures start to go up a little bit.

之後你會發現溫度又會往上提升

And in fact, we had a second temperature shift,

這是第二次溫度的改變

confirmed with a pregnancy test that were indeed pregnant

透過驗孕，我真的懷孕了

with our first child, very exciting.

那是我們的第一個孩子 我們非常興奮

Until a couple of days later

直到幾天後

I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,

我看到點狀出血 之後感覺到一股大量的血流下來

and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.

其實我遇到了懷孕初期的流產

Had I not been taking my temperature

這樣看起來要是我沒量體溫的話

I really would have just thought my period was late that month,

我可能只會覺得那個月的經期晚來而已

but we actually had data to show

不過我們的數據顯示出

that we had miscarried this baby,

我們已經失去這個寶寶了

and even though this data revealed a really

即使這數據也讓我們看到

unfortunate event in our lives,

我們生命中非常不幸的一件事

it was information that we could then take to our doctor.

我們之後拿著這些資訊給醫生看

So if there was a fertility issue or some problem,

所以要是有任何生育問題或其他狀況

I had data to show:

我就有數據可以給別人看

Look, we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,

你看，我懷孕，溫度也有改變

we somehow lost this baby.

卻不知道為何失去這個寶寶

What is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?

我們能夠做些什麼 預防這種問題再次發生呢?

And it's not just about temperatures

這不只是關於體溫

and it's not just about fertility;

也不只是跟生育有關

we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.

而是身體的數據能夠 讓我們知道很多事情

For instance, did you know that taking your temperature can tell you a lot

像是，你知道量體溫可以知道

about the condition of your thyroid?

甲狀腺的狀況嗎?

So, your thyroid works a lot like the thermostat in your house.

甲狀腺的功能像跟你家裡的中央空調一樣

There is an optimal temperature that you want in your house;

我們總是希望房子裡維持最佳的溫度

you set your thermostat.

所以我們會設定中央空調

When it gets too cold in the house, your thermostat kicks in

當房子裡的溫度下降 中央空調就會開始運轉

and says, "Hey, we need to blow some heat around."

並說 我們把將熱氣送進來

Or if it gets too hot, your thermostat

如果房子裡太熱，中央空調

registers, "Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."

就會說 開冷氣吧，讓大家涼快

That's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.

這就是甲狀腺在你身體裡的功能

Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature

甲狀腺會為身體維持

for your body.

最適當的體溫

If it gets too cold, your thyroid says, "Hey, we need to heat up."

如果溫度太低，甲狀腺就會說 嘿，我們要升溫

If it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.

如果溫度太高 甲狀腺就會幫你降溫

But what happens when your thyroid is not functioning well?

不過，要是你的甲狀腺 失去功用會怎麼樣呢?

When it doesn't function, then it shows up

甲狀腺壞的時候，那麼你的體溫

in your body temperatures,

就會顯示這個狀況

they tend to be lower than normal or very erratic.

你的體溫會比平常還要低 或是非常不規律

And so by collecting this data

所以收集這些數據

you can find out information about your thyroid.

你就可以知道甲狀腺的訊息

Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid problem and you went to the doctor,

現在要是你有了甲狀腺問題 然後你去看醫生

your doctor would actually test the amount of

你的醫生其實只會檢測血液中

thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.

促甲狀腺激素的值

Fine. But the problem with that test is

不錯，可是這個檢測的問題在於

it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.

這並不會跟你說身體內 激素的活躍度有多高

So you might have a lot of hormone present,

所以你可能身體裡有非常多的激素

but it might not be actively working to regulate

卻沒有辦法活躍的運作

your body temperature.

幫你調節身體的溫度

So just by collecting your temperature every day,

所以只要每天收集你的體溫

you get information about the condition of your thyroid.

你就可以知道關於甲狀腺狀況的訊息

So, what if you don't want to take your temperature every day?

那要是你不想要每天量體溫呢?

I advocate that you do,

我還是建議量體溫

but there are tons of other things you could take.

不過也有其他東西可以記錄

You could take your blood pressure, you could take your weight —

你可以記下血壓、記下你的體重

yeah, who's excited about

當然，每天量體重

taking their weight every day? (Laughter)

誰不開心啊? (笑聲)

Early on in our marriage, Donald had a stuffy nose

我們剛結婚的時候 唐納會鼻塞

and he had been taking a slew of medications

他嘗試過一堆的醫療方法

to try to relieve his stuffy nose, to no avail.

試著要減輕鼻塞的狀況，不過都沒效

And so, that night he comes and he wakes me up and he says,

所以，有一晚他上了床 然後搖醒我並說

"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."

親愛的，我不能用鼻子呼吸了

And I roll over and I look, and I said, "Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"

我翻身過去，看了一下 我說 那你可以用嘴巴呼吸嗎?

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And he goes, "Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!"

然後他說

And so like any good wife, I rush him

可以，不過我不能用鼻子呼吸！

to the emergency room

所以就像每位好太太一樣，

at 2 o'clock in the morning.

在凌晨兩點的時候

And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking,

我趕快帶著他衝到急診室

you can't die on me now.

整路上開著車時，我都在想

We just got married,

你現在可不能死

people will think I killed you! (Laughter)

我們才剛結婚欸

And so, we get to the emergency room, and the nurse sees us,