It's been a fairly ugly end to the week. Quite a sharp sell off in the US stock markets to end Friday.

這周的結束並不光彩。周五在一場股市大傾銷中結束。

Let me now try to put that into perspective.

現在讓我試著來分析未來走勢。

Well, taking a look at first is the oil price, obviously something that has preoccupied many people for a while now, that very very sharp tumble in the latter half of 2014.

先來看油價，自從油價於２０１４下半年開始下跌，它已經讓很多人關注好一陣子了。

What is intriguing is that there's been huge volatility ever since then. But we've basically gone flat ever since the beginning of 2015.

有趣的是那之後的發展性其實很大，但是自2015年以來就基本上一直趨於穩定。

It doesn't feel like that. There's been this intense volatility we've tended to over compensate for that.

感覺不是這樣的。我們一直在設法用最近一股緊鑼密鼓的發展機會去彌補。

Now, if we take a look at this next chart, you can see that that plays to one of the more important nature's of the oil market.

現在如果我們仔細看看這剛圖表，你可以看到這顯示一項石油市場更重要的天性。

It may be very volatile, but in the long term, oil price and the gap between demand and supply for oil - that's using numbers from the IEA - are remarkably close.

或許很有發展空間，但就長期來說，油價和供給與需求的落差，用IEA的數據來看，是非常接近的。

The price gets very high when demands outstrips supply the most, as it did in 2007, 2008,

當需求大於供給時，價格就會飆高。2007年和2008年就是如此，

and the price gets very low when supply outstrips demands by the most last year.

像去年，供給大於需求時，價格就會很低。

That could imply that the oil price is very sensitive to changes in oil and in demand and supply,

這表示油價對供給和需求的變動非常敏感，

perhaps more accurately, it means that demand and supply actually respond quite quickly to changes in the oil price.

或是更準確地來說，供給和需求的變動會非常快速的反應在油價上。

This means, I would suggest, given that there is concern about whether the oil price is about to fall once more,

這表示，我會建議，有鑑於仍有油價會再度下跌的考量，

that we should always keep an eye on that for the long term.

長期來說我們應該時時注意著油價。

There is no particular reason to think that oil prices will stay low for a very long period

沒有特定的理由指出油價會長期處於低點，

because the way the market works is that we can expect demand and supply to adjust.

因為市場機能就是我們可以期待供需雙方自行取得平衡。

Now, moving on to the news that was moving the market today, we heard about US retail sales and as you can see, these were really pretty sharply good results.

現在，回到今日震撼市場的新聞，我們知道美國的股市傾銷，這真的有個不錯的好結果。

A 3% annual growth as you can see after quite a slow clip most of last year,

在去年的削減後，今年有3%的年均成長率，

it does look as though the consumer is buying stuff not at the rate we saw 10 or 15 years ago,

看起來的確是消費者如今購買的利率點不如10或15年前，

but still plainly ticking up, plainly reason for some comforts.

但仍清楚的在微微升高，有明顯的理由可以稍微放心。

Now, why therefore would we have seen the sell off that we saw in the stock market?

現在，到底為甚麼我們會看到股市傾銷呢?

One argument is that because we've seen strong macro-data today, that has worried people that the Fed is more likely to raise rates sooner rather than later.

有一個論點是我們如今有著強烈的宏觀數據，讓人很擔心美聯儲是否會盡早升息。

That's something that the stock market doesn't want to see.

這是股市不樂見的情況。

However, if you look at the Fed funds future's market, it isn't showing any particular rise in the expectations on rates,

但是，如果你觀察聯邦基金的未來市場，預期利率高並沒有使它有任何升值的徵兆，

that it's still seen as barely 50-50 shot that we'll have even one rate rise by the end of this year.

直至今日，今年年底會升息的機率仍是50%。

However, now let's take a look at the bonds markets.

但是，再看看債券市場。

And here we do have one signal that might have worried people very much.

這裡確實有個會讓大家擔憂的徵兆。

This is the yield curve, many people are rather frightened of bond market technology, it's terminology.

這是收益率曲線，很多人都很害怕債券市場技術，這個專有名詞

It's fairly straightforward. This shows you the gap between the yields on the 10 year treasury and the 2 year treasury.

的含意很清楚。你可以從這張表看到債券的落差，以10年計還有以2年計。

When that gap is lower, or in other words when the yield curve is flatter, that means that investors generally expect rates to rise less in future inflation,

當落差比較小的時候，換句話說，當這條線比較平坦的時候，表示投資者大致上會希望未來通膨的時候利息不要漲太多，

to rise less in future and growth to be slower in future.

利息不要漲太多、成長率慢一點。

In other words, a flatter yield curve is a bearish signal.

換句話說，平坦的收益率曲線是熊市的徵兆。

And when the yield curve actually becomes inverted when the 10 year drops below the 2 year, that is a classic recession indicator.

當收益率曲線反轉過來，10年的低於2年的時，這就是一個經典的通縮徵兆。

We've seen the yield curve flatten very sharply the last few days, and as of today, it is now as flat as it has been at any point

我們看到過去這幾天收益率曲線越來越平，到今天達到

since the end of 2007 on the dawn of the financial crisis and the great recession.

自2007年金融好笑以及大通縮以來史上最平。

Somehow or other the bond market at the moment is spooked and worried about a recession despite what is broadly positive data.

不知怎麼的，債券似乎被嚇到了。儘管數據明朗，它還是擔心通縮。

That may be the best explanation for why stocks are having a bad time of it and why it's now almost a year since we saw the all time high in the S&P 500.

那或許是股市走低的最好解釋，也是為甚麼在標準普爾500指數標高後到現在已經快一年了的最好解釋。