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  • Hello and welcome back to the note.

    哈囉!歡迎回到 The note。

  • It's been a fairly ugly end to the week. Quite a sharp sell off in the US stock markets to end Friday.

    這周的結束並不光彩。周五在一場股市大傾銷中結束。

  • Let me now try to put that into perspective.

    現在讓我試著來分析未來走勢。

  • Well, taking a look at first is the oil price, obviously something that has preoccupied many people for a while now, that very very sharp tumble in the latter half of 2014.

    先來看油價,自從油價於2014下半年開始下跌,它已經讓很多人關注好一陣子了。

  • What is intriguing is that there's been huge volatility ever since then. But we've basically gone flat ever since the beginning of 2015.

    有趣的是那之後的發展性其實很大,但是自2015年以來就基本上一直趨於穩定。

  • It doesn't feel like that. There's been this intense volatility we've tended to over compensate for that.

    感覺不是這樣的。我們一直在設法用最近一股緊鑼密鼓的發展機會去彌補。

  • Now, if we take a look at this next chart, you can see that that plays to one of the more important nature's of the oil market.

    現在如果我們仔細看看這剛圖表,你可以看到這顯示一項石油市場更重要的天性。

  • It may be very volatile, but in the long term, oil price and the gap between demand and supply for oil - that's using numbers from the IEA - are remarkably close.

    或許很有發展空間,但就長期來說,油價和供給與需求的落差,用IEA的數據來看,是非常接近的。

  • The price gets very high when demands outstrips supply the most, as it did in 2007, 2008,

    當需求大於供給時,價格就會飆高。2007年和2008年就是如此,

  • and the price gets very low when supply outstrips demands by the most last year.

    像去年,供給大於需求時,價格就會很低。

  • That could imply that the oil price is very sensitive to changes in oil and in demand and supply,

    這表示油價對供給和需求的變動非常敏感,

  • perhaps more accurately, it means that demand and supply actually respond quite quickly to changes in the oil price.

    或是更準確地來說,供給和需求的變動會非常快速的反應在油價上。

  • This means, I would suggest, given that there is concern about whether the oil price is about to fall once more,

    這表示,我會建議,有鑑於仍有油價會再度下跌的考量,

  • that we should always keep an eye on that for the long term.

    長期來說我們應該時時注意著油價。

  • There is no particular reason to think that oil prices will stay low for a very long period

    沒有特定的理由指出油價會長期處於低點,

  • because the way the market works is that we can expect demand and supply to adjust.

    因為市場機能就是我們可以期待供需雙方自行取得平衡。

  • Now, moving on to the news that was moving the market today, we heard about US retail sales and as you can see, these were really pretty sharply good results.

    現在,回到今日震撼市場的新聞,我們知道美國的股市傾銷,這真的有個不錯的好結果。

  • A 3% annual growth as you can see after quite a slow clip most of last year,

    在去年的削減後,今年有3%的年均成長率,

  • it does look as though the consumer is buying stuff not at the rate we saw 10 or 15 years ago,

    看起來的確是消費者如今購買的利率點不如10或15年前,

  • but still plainly ticking up, plainly reason for some comforts.

    但仍清楚的在微微升高,有明顯的理由可以稍微放心。

  • Now, why therefore would we have seen the sell off that we saw in the stock market?

    現在,到底為甚麼我們會看到股市傾銷呢?

  • One argument is that because we've seen strong macro-data today, that has worried people that the Fed is more likely to raise rates sooner rather than later.

    有一個論點是我們如今有著強烈的宏觀數據,讓人很擔心美聯儲是否會盡早升息。

  • That's something that the stock market doesn't want to see.

    這是股市不樂見的情況。

  • However, if you look at the Fed funds future's market, it isn't showing any particular rise in the expectations on rates,

    但是,如果你觀察聯邦基金的未來市場,預期利率高並沒有使它有任何升值的徵兆,

  • that it's still seen as barely 50-50 shot that we'll have even one rate rise by the end of this year.

    直至今日,今年年底會升息的機率仍是50%。

  • However, now let's take a look at the bonds markets.

    但是,再看看債券市場。

  • And here we do have one signal that might have worried people very much.

    這裡確實有個會讓大家擔憂的徵兆。

  • This is the yield curve, many people are rather frightened of bond market technology, it's terminology.

    這是收益率曲線,很多人都很害怕債券市場技術,這個專有名詞

  • It's fairly straightforward. This shows you the gap between the yields on the 10 year treasury and the 2 year treasury.

    的含意很清楚。你可以從這張表看到債券的落差,以10年計還有以2年計。

  • When that gap is lower, or in other words when the yield curve is flatter, that means that investors generally expect rates to rise less in future inflation,

    當落差比較小的時候,換句話說,當這條線比較平坦的時候,表示投資者大致上會希望未來通膨的時候利息不要漲太多,

  • to rise less in future and growth to be slower in future.

    利息不要漲太多、成長率慢一點。

  • In other words, a flatter yield curve is a bearish signal.

    換句話說,平坦的收益率曲線是熊市的徵兆。

  • And when the yield curve actually becomes inverted when the 10 year drops below the 2 year, that is a classic recession indicator.

    當收益率曲線反轉過來,10年的低於2年的時,這就是一個經典的通縮徵兆。

  • We've seen the yield curve flatten very sharply the last few days, and as of today, it is now as flat as it has been at any point

    我們看到過去這幾天收益率曲線越來越平,到今天達到

  • since the end of 2007 on the dawn of the financial crisis and the great recession.

    自2007年金融好笑以及大通縮以來史上最平。

  • Somehow or other the bond market at the moment is spooked and worried about a recession despite what is broadly positive data.

    不知怎麼的,債券似乎被嚇到了。儘管數據明朗,它還是擔心通縮。

  • That may be the best explanation for why stocks are having a bad time of it and why it's now almost a year since we saw the all time high in the S&P 500.

    那或許是股市走低的最好解釋,也是為甚麼在標準普爾500指數標高後到現在已經快一年了的最好解釋。

Hello and welcome back to the note.

哈囉!歡迎回到 The note。

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A2 初級 中文 FinancialTimes 油價 徵兆 股市 收益率 市場

平坦的市場 - 作者注 (Flat markets | Authers' Note)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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