But has the market got ahead of itself with this rallying commodity currencies?

但是這項正在復甦的商品貨幣是否使市場好高騖遠了呢？

One man who thinks so is Steven Saywell, global FX strategist at BNP Paribas.

巴黎銀行駐倫敦外匯策略全球主管 Steven Saywell 深表同意。

Steven, what is it that that has caused the rally in recent commodity price currencies?

Steven ，是甚麼因素導致近期商品貨幣的復甦呢?

Well, we think it really gets down to one point and that's the Chinese recovery.

我想中國的復甦是它跌落谷底的時刻。

Certainly if we look at the tail end of 2015, expectations for Chinese growth were fairly muted.

如果我們看看2015年底，幾乎聽不到期望中國經濟成長的聲音。

But, actually what's happened in 2016 is that growth has exceeded expectations.

但是，在2016年，實際上成長是高於預期的。

That's led to stronger demand for commodities and we've seen quite a nice rebound led by oil

(高成長) 促使對於商品的需求大增，我們看到石油帶來一個不錯的回升，

but also other commodities, specifically things such as iron ore.

也有一些其他的商品如此，特別是鐵礦。

Okay, so if we take a look at your first chart, it shows us the Australian dollar,

好，所以如果我們看你的第一個表格，這是澳元，

which is a commodity currency driven by iron ore prices.

一個被鐵礦價格帶動的商品貨幣。

And it's showing basically that the red line shows the actual spot rate for the foreign exchange rate compared to the US dollar,

這顯示，基本上，紅線顯示與美元相比，外匯的實際即時匯率，

and then we have the BNP Paribas model number that shows the blue number,

然後我們有巴黎銀行的模型，就是藍色這條線，

that shows basically it's currently undervalued.

顯示出基本上這是被低估的。

So, why do you think that is?

所以，你覺得為甚麼會這樣?

Sure. Well, I should highlight it. So the blue line here is one of our flagship models. It's called BNP Paribas CLEER.

當然，我應該要強調的。藍線是我們主要的模型，我們稱它為 BNP Paribas CLEER 。

It gives a medium term equilibrium level of a currency.

它顯示貨幣中期的均衡水平。

What we think has happened here is that the Australian dollar is currently, significantly higher than the equilibrium level would suggest.

我們覺得這裡發生的事是，澳元現在正遠遠高於均衡值。

I think there's two factors there. One is the commodity prices have accelerated quite significantly.

我想這裏有兩個因素，第一是物價大幅攀升。

We don't think that is sustained. So we think that falls back.

我們不覺得這會持續，我們覺得它會再下跌。

Secondly, until very recently, the reserve bank of Australia had kept interest rates very high as well, too.

其次，近期澳洲儲備銀行一直把利率控制在高點。

They've started to ease policy now and we're starting to see the Australian dollar converge back to the level signalled by the model.

他們已開始試用寬鬆政策，我們慢慢可以看到澳元回到模型上這個水準。

Okay. So if we take a look at the second chart that you've brought out.

好。所以我們來看看你帶來的第二個圖表。

The second chart shows us the market position and how it's changed.

第二張圖表顯示市場地位還有它如何改變。

So we've had, this is the exchange rate with the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar and the Australian dollar or US dollar.

所以我們有，這是加元對美元的匯率，然後這是澳元對美元的匯率。

Canadian obviously being an oil-fueled currency as well.

加拿大很明顯也是個石油燃料導向的貨幣區。

And we can see that the positioning has changed in the market,

而我們可以看到市場定位正在改變。

so we've gone from quite a strong, short position at the beginning of the year to quite a strong, long position.

所以我們從年初的強而空頭的部位到現在強而多頭的部位。

So, do you think the market has got it wrong? Or why has it switched?

所以，你覺得市場錯了嗎?或是為甚麼會這樣改變呢?

Well, this is interesting. If we look at the history of these two commodity currencies, and remember the zero line here is a neutral position.

這滿有趣的。如果我們觀察這兩個商品貨幣的歷史，記住零這邊是中立的位置。

You can see that for the past 12~15 months, the markets pretty much exclusively held a short position.

你可以看到在過去的12-15個月以來，市場排他的位於空頭部位。

That changed quite dramatically from the beginning of 2016. I think driven by the commodity price rally.

在2016年初，這有了戲劇性的改變。我想，受商品貨幣復甦的驅使。

We're now at a level where the market is, we would say caught long of both of these currencies.

我現在正處於市場，我們會說長期被這兩種貨幣制約了。

The reason we say caught is that if commodity prices do fall back,

我們會這麼說是因為要是物價下跌，

which they're starting to already and it's consistent without expectations,

它們其實已經開始下跌了，一致且部出乎意料，

the market will then scramble to reduce these long positions and that will accelerate the move to the downside

市場就會在混亂中減少多頭部位，這樣會更快跌落谷底，

for both the Australian dollar but also the Canadian dollar.

澳元和加元都一樣。

Okay, so then if we look at your third chart, when we talk about where the market is

好，那我們來看你的第三張圖表，這裡我們談到市場

and where you might suggest that people could take advantage of the trend that you think is coming.

你或許會指出民眾可以占未來這個潮流的便宜。

Um... we take a look at the Australian dollar and compare it to the Euro.

嗯，我們看看澳元，然後拿他跟歐元比較。

So that's the red line here and the blue line is showing us the 2-year interest rate swap spread,

那就是紅色這條線，而藍色這條顯示2年的匯率互換價差，

which traditionally there is a relationship between those although we have seen some gaps in a few points.

傳統上來說，這兩者應該是有關係的，但是這裡在某些點上我們可以看到落差。

So, what is this chart telling us?

所以，這張圖表告訴我們甚麼事？

Well, certainly the underlying philosophy here is that there's a very strong relationship or correlation between

基本概念是這裡有很強烈的關係或是關聯

short term interest rate movements and currencies.

對於短期利率漲跌和貨幣流通。

Secondly, traditionally, the Australian dollar tends to be quoted against the US dollar,

其次，傳統上來說，澳元的價格都是用美元計價的，

and that's what the original model told us that equilibrium lies to the downside around 67 cents.

這也是原始模型中看到的，均衡值位於６７分左右。

That's a great trade over the medium term, but in the short term, we think the Euro will continue to do very well.

在中期內有個巨大的貿易，但是在短期內，我們覺得歐元會保持良好狀態。

So, one of the favorite trade recommendations we have is long with the Euro against the Australian dollar.

所以我們最偏愛的貿易建議就是長期要用歐元計價澳元。

And this chart or the relationship here backs that up very clearly.

而這張圖表甚至是這其中的關係都能為以上這個說法背書。

You can see the blue line, which is the interest rate differential is moving significantly in favor of the Euro,

你可以看到藍色這條線，利率差值很慏顯得對歐元有利。

and that's pushing the Euro versus the Australian dollar higher.

使歐元對澳元的比例更高。

What you can also see is the interest rate is telling us there's more to go on the upside.

你還可以看到利率顯示還會再升高。

So we think being long the Euro versus the Australian dollar is a very good trade recommendation.

所以我們覺得長期要用歐元計價澳元是很好的貿易建議。

Okay. And then if we take a step back and look at what investors are watching.

好。那如果我們退一步，以投資客的角度看看。

So, I mean we've had a stronger recovery in commodity prices,

所以，我是說在物價上我們有一個較強烈的復甦，

we've had a weakening expectation of the Fed and what their rate hikes might be.

我們對於美聯儲及其風險的期望比較小。

And we've had some recovery in sort of the Chinese or some pleasant surprises around Chinese economic data

而中國這邊也有一些復甦，或者中國的經濟資料有些令人愉快的驚喜，

in the past few months that have been fueling this.

過去的幾個月以來這些事一直在發生。

What are the things that if an investor had to pick one or I guess at most two things to watch of when this might turn.

那如果投資客必須挑一個，最多兩個因素觀察的話，

What would those be?

應該挑哪些呢?

Okay. Well, if I had to name two factors here, particularly in the case of the Australian dollar I'd name the following to 2 points.

好，嗯如果要我點出兩個因素的話，如果要看澳元的話我會列舉以下兩點。

One. What happens to iron ore prices? Does it fall back?

一，鐵礦的價格怎麼樣？有跌嗎？

Do they fall back as we anticipate?

跌幅有像我們預期般的那樣嗎？

And secondly, what happens on the interest rate front? Is the reserve bank of Australia likely to cut interest rates again?

第二，利率怎麼樣？澳洲儲備銀行會再降息嗎？

We think they do potentially as early as June.

我們想他們六月初是有的。

If either, or both of those factors happen, the Australian dollar will weaken.

如果以上兩點都沒有發生，或是同時發生，澳元都會再貶。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝你。