The hideous declines in many currencies in this asset class have been a serious test of nerves.

大幅貶值的新興貨幣是對投資者的一連串考驗

Since the first sign that the Fed would start turning off the taps back in 2013,

自2013年，聯準會決定不再大印鈔票起

every time the market has swooned, investors have hoped it would be a mere bump in the road.

每次市場昏頭轉向時，投資者都希望只是路上的一個顛簸

Every time though, it's turned out to be much more than that.

但每一次，事實都證明情況比預想的還要來得糟

Lately, these investors have enjoyed a rare spell in the sun.

最近，這群投資者有幸享受市場上難得的晴天

Some have even put their tin hats back in the loft.

不少人把他們的保護頭盔塞回了閣樓裡

After a gruesome start to 2016, a series of "maybes" have helped emerging market currencies decline by some 10% from late January.

經歷了2016年年初慘淡的開端後，新興貨幣自一月以來貶值約10%。這是拜一堆「也許」所賜。

Among the reasons, perhaps the U.S. won't keep on cranking up interest rate as fast as it says.

也許美國不會繼續像他們說的一樣快速地升息

Perhaps the reaction to China's currency devaluation was overdone and the country's economy won't collapse after all, at least not yet.

也許市場對於人民幣貶值的反應過於誇張，而中國的經濟不會崩解，至少目前還不會

Perhaps that flower show in Tangshang, the one that reportedly brought steel production to a temporary halt,

也許唐山的那場花展，那場號稱造成鋼鐵產出滯怠的花展

really will succeed in putting a floor under iron prices, perhaps oil will find balance.

會成功的阻止鋼鐵價格下跌；也許油價會達到平衡

A lot of these reasons are pretty flaky and even at the time,

這之中有不少原因其實十分薄弱；而即使在當時

EM investors pinned some of it on technical factors and strokes of luck.

新興市場的投資者也將他們歸為技術層面上的因素或是單純的運氣

But now, just as some bystanders are deciding to jump into the market, it may be time for a pause.

但現在，正當不少旁觀者決定要投入市場，卻可能是個該喊暫停的時刻

The smart money says we won't go back to the ugly declines we saw at the start of this year,

「聰明錢」效果告訴我們不會回到今年年初的狀況，不會有那樣慘烈的衰退

but it also says it's wise to be very cautious, and thankful just for stability.

但它同時也告訴我們應該要非常謹慎，並對於目前穩定的市場心懷感激

Among the laundry list of risks, the dollar seems to have dropped as far as it reasonably can based on the dovish rethink of the Fed,

在一長串的風險列表中，美元似乎下跌到它所能跌的最低點，這是拜聯準會保守的處理手段所賜

at least for now iron ore prices are, once again, dropping off a cliff, down by over 20% or so from the recent peak.

至少現在，鐵礦的價格又再次跌到谷底，它和最近的高峰相比下跌了20%

Political risk is pinching Brazil and hammering Turkey, a nervous central bank is holding back the Korean Won,

國內的政治風險使得巴西如坐針氈，而土耳其的情況則更為慘烈。韓國過於緊張的中央銀行遏阻了韓元的成長

and it's hard to see how the chance of Donald Trump running for U.S. president can be positive for risky assets.

而川普參選美國總統一事對於風險較高的資產也是毫無幫助

Are we heading for another mini-crash? Probably not.

我們是否正邁入一個小型的危機？大概不是

But it's also worth preparing for at least a bump in the road, and getting that tin hat out of storage just in case.

但你至少要做好會遇到顛簸的心理準備，並且以防萬一，最好也把你的保護頭盔從閣樓裡拿出來