Last night, Apple reported that iPhone sales were lower in its most recent quarter than in the same period a year ago.

昨晚，蘋果公司表示他們這一季的 iPhone 銷售量比起一年前的同一時期來得低

That seems like a very significant moment, some people talking about a blackberry style death spiral.

這感覺是一個很重要的時刻。不少人在猜想他們會不會像黑莓公司一樣陷入死亡螺旋

Is it really that bad or is the market getting far too excited over something that we all knew would come at some point?

情況真的有這麼遭嗎？還是只是市場對於這個我們都知道會來臨的時刻過於興奮了呢？

It is a moment, clearly. A symbolic moment. And it is equally true that historically very dominant handset makers.

很顯然的，這的確是重要的一刻。算是歷史性的一刻。的確，過去的手機製造龍頭

once they start to decline in volume, the wheels have come rattling off.

一旦交易量開始下降，一切好像就會開始解體

I think in Apple's case, a couple of things have to be kept in mind.

但我覺得，在蘋果公司的例子上，我們必須要記得幾件事

The first is that Apple is mid-product cycle, in other words, this first quarter fell between the iPhone 6 and the much anticipated iPhone7.

首先，現在是蘋果產品發表周期的中段。換言之，這一季的時間是落在iPhone 6發表後和眾所期待iPhone 7發表之前

And historically, in these mid-cycle moments, Apple has reported some pretty soft revenues.

而從過去來看，通常蘋果公司在這個的時期的營收都會較低

In the past, revenues have come down to sort of zero growth.

過去曾經跌到達零成長的地步

This time, we just happened to break the zero barrier.

而這次，他們剛好跌破了零成長大關

Because of weaker sales in China.

因為在中國市場的表現不佳

Yeah, China was particularly weak this quarter. That's probably macro-economic.

沒錯，第一季中國地區的表現的確特別不理想。這是從宏觀經濟來看

So maybe you don't want to make so much of having broken the symbolic zero barrier.

所以或許你不必太因為蘋果跌破零成長而大驚小怪

The second thing to keep in mind is that the stock is actually priced for a decline.

其次，你要知道蘋果的股價其實本來就會下跌

The stock trades at about 11 times earnings if you take out the cash that is sitting on Apple's balance sheet, it's at 8 times earnings.

蘋果股票目前的市盈率是11倍。如果再考慮蘋果的資產負債表，市盈率只有8倍

So what the stock is saying is we expect sales to go down from here.

所以從股價就顯示出，我們其實預期銷售量會降低

And if Apple can prove that all that's gonna happen is a flat lining of sales from here, I think the stock could potentially go up quite a lot.

如果蘋果可以證明未來最慘也不過是持平的銷售量，我認為他們的股價有機會上升許多

How realistic is that, though? Because I thought that the whole business model of technology companies like this was growth.

但這可能發生嗎？我以為科技業的商業模式完全倚賴成長

And it was getting more and more people to buy more and more stuff,

目標是讓更多然買更多的產品

and that there are precious few examples of businesses that have turned into this kind of annuity model where you just monetize a very large installed base.

而也有幾個例子是企業轉為利用年金的模式，變成倚賴現有的用戶

And I think that's precisely where that the debate over the stock is at at this moment.

我覺得這就是現在關於股票在爭辯的點

So Apple loves to trump at this number that the active installed base is over a billion customers.

蘋果公司很愛宣揚這個數字：他們活躍的現有用戶量有超過十億人

So you start to do a little bit of math. You say if something over a billion customers is willing to re-up and buy a new Apple product,

所以我們來算個數吧！假設有大約十億人願意再買一個蘋果的新產品

at a price of say 500 or 600 dollars every say 2 or 2.5 years,

大約每兩年到兩年半買一個500或600元美金的新產品

it's easy to get to a sales line on Apple's profit and loss statement of 200 billion, 250 billion,

你得到的蘋果公司利潤大約是2000億到2500億左右

in other words, right where we are now.

換言之，就是我們現在的狀況

So if you can just keep people buying, renewing again and again, you have an immensely profitable company that could be sort of the ultimate value stock.

所以如果你能讓人們持續購買、持續更新，這間公司就會非常的有經濟效益，並且會成為你手中的價值股

And I guess the ultimate test of that will come later on this year when we get the much anticipated iPhone7

所以我想最終的測驗就是今年，等眾所期盼的iPhone 7發佈之後

and we'll see if that reinvigorates the momentum.

蘋果是否能夠振興他們的股票

Rob, thanks very much.

非常謝謝你，Rob