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  • Stand easy or easier at least.

    股市緊張的情勢終於能稍作歇息

  • 10 basis points might not be the biggest one day change ever for borrowing cost in China's vast 7-trillion bond market,

    中國債券市場總值高達七兆,即使一日內借貸成本上升10個基點,對該國來說仍是九牛一毛

  • but it was enough on Monday to push the country's closely watched onshore repo rate back from Friday's 8-month high.

    但在週一,該數值便讓中國密切關注的海外貼現率,從上週五所創的八個月新高跌回水平

  • That gives investors a little breathing space to consider what next for the rising tensions and onshore bond markets.

    這給投資客喘息的空間,好讓他們思考該怎麼面對接下來國內債券市場的緊張情勢

  • One thing they should consider is their own leverage as well as their fears for companies.

    他們該衡量自身的利益處境,也要衡量對於企業的恐懼

  • Bond yields in China had been rising rapidly.

    中國的債券收益近期上升快速

  • This month China's 5-year government bond yield has risen 25 basis points at 2.75%, its worse monthly performance in a year.

    這個月中國五年期的國家債券上升25個基點,來到2.75%,為一年來表現最差的一月

  • Defaults by two state-owned groups have also raised fears that others will also follow suit.

    兩間國有公司債務違約的情況讓大眾擔憂其他公司是否也會跟進

  • All this is added roughly half a percentage point this month alone for high quality corporate borrowers and spooked by this,

    這讓本月的借貸成本大約成長半個基點,為的是希望能藉此吸引到信用良好的公司

  • companies have so far suspended plans for an estimated 10 billion in expected bond issuance.

    受到此政策的驚嚇,許多公司紛紛延遲總值大約100億的國債發行政策

  • And middle of the furore about the pain of rising rates,

    雖然讓大眾憤怒的主因似乎是不斷上升的利率

  • one so far overlooked factor is that investors as well as companies appear precariously balanced.

    但這樣說其實忽略了投資客和公司的經營收支其實搖搖欲墜

  • The market for pledge-style repos, which are short-term bond backed loans, is currently bigger than the actual stock of outstanding debt.

    質押式回購的市場,也就是以短期債券支撐的貸款,其背負的債遠比實質的股市還來得高

  • Sharp worsening in market sentiment could force those borrowers into fire sales if their loans are called or cannot even just be rolled over.

    借貸者對於市場的嫌惡,再加上提早繳款、無法循環貸款的情況,可能會迫使他們大量拋售債券

  • And the bond fund inflows that followed last summer's stock market rout are also at risk of reversing.

    去年夏天股市崩盤後債券的資金流入也陷入反向操作的危機

  • Since China's bond markets are not quite as liquid as their size might suggest,

    由於中國的債券市場並沒有如其廣大規模應具有的流動性

  • firm managers facing redemptions could be forced to dump what they can rather than what they should or would like to sell.

    身負拯救公司大任的經理可能會被迫拋售他們不情願賣的債券

  • This potential for a market rout makes the 7-day repo rate more important than ever.

    市場崩盤的可能凸顯七日貼現率的重要性

  • Long considered a gauge of official views on the health of the bond market,

    貼現率常被視為具有公信力的債券市場衡量標準

  • the rate reached 2.55% on Friday before dropping to 2.45% on Monday.

    上週五貼現率在這週一降到2.45%前達到2.55%,

  • So long as the PBOC, the People's Bank of China, injected enough money to keep the rate roughly in this range between 2.25 and 2.5%,

    只要中國央行注入足夠的資金,讓貼現率大約維持在2.25%到2.5%之間

  • the worst sell off fears should be kept at bay.

    就能避免大量拋售的情況發生

  • But if it moves and stays sharply higher, leveraged investors would be in for a shock,

    反之,如果貼現率仍繼續攀升,以小博大的投資客將會碰壁

  • And given the impact that any Chinese turmoil now seems to have on world markets, that means investors elsewhere, too.

    有鑒於全球化牽一髮動全身的影響,中國的股市亂象表示全球的投資客也將難逃一劫

Stand easy or easier at least.

股市緊張的情勢終於能稍作歇息

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B1 中級 中文 FinancialTimes 債券 中國 投資客 股市 基點

中國的債券市場岌岌可危|短線觀察 (China's bond market on edge | Short View)

  • 28 6
    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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