10 basis points might not be the biggest one day change ever for borrowing cost in China's vast 7-trillion bond market,

中國債券市場總值高達七兆，即使一日內借貸成本上升10個基點，對該國來說仍是九牛一毛

but it was enough on Monday to push the country's closely watched onshore repo rate back from Friday's 8-month high.

但在週一，該數值便讓中國密切關注的海外貼現率，從上週五所創的八個月新高跌回水平

That gives investors a little breathing space to consider what next for the rising tensions and onshore bond markets.

這給投資客喘息的空間，好讓他們思考該怎麼面對接下來國內債券市場的緊張情勢

One thing they should consider is their own leverage as well as their fears for companies.

他們該衡量自身的利益處境，也要衡量對於企業的恐懼

Bond yields in China had been rising rapidly.

中國的債券收益近期上升快速

This month China's 5-year government bond yield has risen 25 basis points at 2.75%, its worse monthly performance in a year.

這個月中國五年期的國家債券上升25個基點，來到2.75%，為一年來表現最差的一月

Defaults by two state-owned groups have also raised fears that others will also follow suit.

兩間國有公司債務違約的情況讓大眾擔憂其他公司是否也會跟進

All this is added roughly half a percentage point this month alone for high quality corporate borrowers and spooked by this,

這讓本月的借貸成本大約成長半個基點，為的是希望能藉此吸引到信用良好的公司

companies have so far suspended plans for an estimated 10 billion in expected bond issuance.

受到此政策的驚嚇，許多公司紛紛延遲總值大約100億的國債發行政策

And middle of the furore about the pain of rising rates,

雖然讓大眾憤怒的主因似乎是不斷上升的利率

one so far overlooked factor is that investors as well as companies appear precariously balanced.

但這樣說其實忽略了投資客和公司的經營收支其實搖搖欲墜

The market for pledge-style repos, which are short-term bond backed loans, is currently bigger than the actual stock of outstanding debt.

質押式回購的市場，也就是以短期債券支撐的貸款，其背負的債遠比實質的股市還來得高

Sharp worsening in market sentiment could force those borrowers into fire sales if their loans are called or cannot even just be rolled over.

借貸者對於市場的嫌惡，再加上提早繳款、無法循環貸款的情況，可能會迫使他們大量拋售債券

And the bond fund inflows that followed last summer's stock market rout are also at risk of reversing.

去年夏天股市崩盤後債券的資金流入也陷入反向操作的危機

Since China's bond markets are not quite as liquid as their size might suggest,

由於中國的債券市場並沒有如其廣大規模應具有的流動性

firm managers facing redemptions could be forced to dump what they can rather than what they should or would like to sell.

身負拯救公司大任的經理可能會被迫拋售他們不情願賣的債券

This potential for a market rout makes the 7-day repo rate more important than ever.

市場崩盤的可能凸顯七日貼現率的重要性

Long considered a gauge of official views on the health of the bond market,

貼現率常被視為具有公信力的債券市場衡量標準

the rate reached 2.55% on Friday before dropping to 2.45% on Monday.

上週五貼現率在這週一降到2.45%前達到2.55%，

So long as the PBOC, the People's Bank of China, injected enough money to keep the rate roughly in this range between 2.25 and 2.5%,

只要中國央行注入足夠的資金，讓貼現率大約維持在2.25%到2.5%之間

the worst sell off fears should be kept at bay.

就能避免大量拋售的情況發生

But if it moves and stays sharply higher, leveraged investors would be in for a shock,

反之，如果貼現率仍繼續攀升，以小博大的投資客將會碰壁

And given the impact that any Chinese turmoil now seems to have on world markets, that means investors elsewhere, too.

有鑒於全球化牽一髮動全身的影響，中國的股市亂象表示全球的投資客也將難逃一劫