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  • Let's consider the euro, which has been getting stronger this year against the dollar

    是時候該考慮對美元越漲越兇的歐元了。

  • following the latest set of extraordinary measures by the European Central Bank designed to stimulate the Eurozone economy.

    歐洲中央銀行新的,為了刺激歐洲經濟而進行的一項獨特的測量方式正助長其成長。

  • It will buy corporate bonds, the sort of direct lending to companies the U.S. Federal Reserve was forced to try during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    他們會買入公司債券,就像美國於1930年代經濟大蕭條時被迫向私人公司借錢一樣。

  • Interest rates have been pushed into negative territory, and significant portions of the bonds market also trade below zero.

    利率被推向負值,並且一大部分的債券市場也在負利率的條件下進行交易。

  • And yet, the continent's currency has been getting stronger.

    但是(歐洲)大陸的貨幣卻越來越強勢。

  • Perhaps the best view to have of any one currency at any one point in time is ignorance,

    或許能使任何一項貨幣處於任何一個點\的事實被輕忽了,

  • or at least deference to the Gods of Money who inhabit markets too deep and ineffable to fathom.

    或至少聽從紮跟於市場,無法被人看透的錢之神的指示。

  • Yet the ECB's in good company.

    但歐洲中央銀行再好的公司手裏。

  • It is one of five central banks which have announced looser monetary policy measures this year,

    它是五間今年宣布使用寬鬆貨幣政策的中央銀行之一,

  • looser than many of the investors and economists who tried to predict these things had forecast.

    比任何投資者和經濟學家預測的都還要寬鬆。

  • Loose monetary policy might be thought to be associated with weaker currencies,

    寬鬆的貨幣政策或許會被與較弱勢的貨幣聯想在一起,

  • but Japan, New Zealand, Sweden and Norway have all seen the value of their currency rise following the announcements of fresh stimulus,

    但日本,紐西蘭,瑞典和挪威都見證過刺激性的政策促使貨幣增值是如何的情況。

  • a sign that markets are losing faith in the powers of central banks, perhaps.

    或許是市場已失去對中央銀行調節力量的信心。

  • One way to think about these moves, maybe to take a longer-term view.

    一個看待這些事件的方式,或許該就長期方面思考。

  • The recent strengthening of the yen seems strange until we look at where it's trading only a few years ago.

    日圓的上看似強而有力,直到幾年前我們看到了他貿易的方向。

  • It remains extremely weak compare to what a yen was worth in 2012.

    它比2012年的日圓弱勢太多了。

  • The average rate against the dollar this century is 106 yen to the dollar, not far from the 109 where it was trading on Tuesday.

    這個世紀的日圓對美元之平均匯率是106,跟週二的109差不多。

  • Think about the euro in similar terms, and as you can see from this chart,

    用同樣的道理來思考歐元,你可以從這個表中看到,

  • the question is which is the right level for the currency.

    問題是哪個點才是這貨幣應該處於得水準。

  • Here, where it has traded recently, or here, the much stronger level where it traded before 2014.

    這裡,最近的貿易值,或是這裡,2014年更加強勢的水準。

  • If the century average of €1.23 to the dollar is anything to go by, the euro could easily be stronger than it is today.

    如果本世紀1.23歐元值得美元極大,那歐元應該比現在更強勢。

  • There is also another reason to think that the euro could strengthen.

    還有另一個歐元可以更強勢的理由。

  • Monetary policy, as judged by real interest rates, is perhaps looser in the U.S. than it is in Europe.

    貨幣政策,由實質利率判斷,或是美國還比歐洲更寬鬆。

  • If you consider this chart,

    如果比仔細考慮這張表,

  • real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from nominal interest rates.

    實質利率由名目利率減去通貨膨脹率求出。

  • BNP Paribas here have compared real rates in Europe and the U.S., where inflation has started to pick up,

    法國巴黎銀行比較了歐洲和美國的房地產,通膨開始將負利率推向更低,

  • pushing negative rates lower, the negative real rates lower.

    實質負利率更低。

  • The euro, they argue, could strengthen further in the next few months.

    歐元,他們如此爭辯,幾個月後會強勢起來。

  • If it does, cheaper imports would mean even less inflation in Europe,

    如果真是如此將更有利於進口,歐洲的通膨率將降低,

  • putting further pressure on the ECB to act,

    歐洲中央銀行壓力會更大,

  • but also raising fresh questions about its power if it does.

    但也提起了他是否有能力的問題。

Let's consider the euro, which has been getting stronger this year against the dollar

是時候該考慮對美元越漲越兇的歐元了。

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