字幕列表 影片播放 列印所有字幕 列印翻譯字幕 列印英文字幕 Let's consider the euro, which has been getting stronger this year against the dollar 是時候該考慮對美元越漲越兇的歐元了。 following the latest set of extraordinary measures by the European Central Bank designed to stimulate the Eurozone economy. 歐洲中央銀行新的,為了刺激歐洲經濟而進行的一項獨特的測量方式正助長其成長。 It will buy corporate bonds, the sort of direct lending to companies the U.S. Federal Reserve was forced to try during the Great Depression of the 1930s. 他們會買入公司債券,就像美國於1930年代經濟大蕭條時被迫向私人公司借錢一樣。 Interest rates have been pushed into negative territory, and significant portions of the bonds market also trade below zero. 利率被推向負值,並且一大部分的債券市場也在負利率的條件下進行交易。 And yet, the continent's currency has been getting stronger. 但是(歐洲)大陸的貨幣卻越來越強勢。 Perhaps the best view to have of any one currency at any one point in time is ignorance, 或許能使任何一項貨幣處於任何一個點\的事實被輕忽了, or at least deference to the Gods of Money who inhabit markets too deep and ineffable to fathom. 或至少聽從紮跟於市場,無法被人看透的錢之神的指示。 Yet the ECB's in good company. 但歐洲中央銀行再好的公司手裏。 It is one of five central banks which have announced looser monetary policy measures this year, 它是五間今年宣布使用寬鬆貨幣政策的中央銀行之一, looser than many of the investors and economists who tried to predict these things had forecast. 比任何投資者和經濟學家預測的都還要寬鬆。 Loose monetary policy might be thought to be associated with weaker currencies, 寬鬆的貨幣政策或許會被與較弱勢的貨幣聯想在一起, but Japan, New Zealand, Sweden and Norway have all seen the value of their currency rise following the announcements of fresh stimulus, 但日本,紐西蘭,瑞典和挪威都見證過刺激性的政策促使貨幣增值是如何的情況。 a sign that markets are losing faith in the powers of central banks, perhaps. 或許是市場已失去對中央銀行調節力量的信心。 One way to think about these moves, maybe to take a longer-term view. 一個看待這些事件的方式,或許該就長期方面思考。 The recent strengthening of the yen seems strange until we look at where it's trading only a few years ago. 日圓的上看似強而有力,直到幾年前我們看到了他貿易的方向。 It remains extremely weak compare to what a yen was worth in 2012. 它比2012年的日圓弱勢太多了。 The average rate against the dollar this century is 106 yen to the dollar, not far from the 109 where it was trading on Tuesday. 這個世紀的日圓對美元之平均匯率是106,跟週二的109差不多。 Think about the euro in similar terms, and as you can see from this chart, 用同樣的道理來思考歐元,你可以從這個表中看到, the question is which is the right level for the currency. 問題是哪個點才是這貨幣應該處於得水準。 Here, where it has traded recently, or here, the much stronger level where it traded before 2014. 這裡,最近的貿易值,或是這裡,2014年更加強勢的水準。 If the century average of €1.23 to the dollar is anything to go by, the euro could easily be stronger than it is today. 如果本世紀1.23歐元值得美元極大,那歐元應該比現在更強勢。 There is also another reason to think that the euro could strengthen. 還有另一個歐元可以更強勢的理由。 Monetary policy, as judged by real interest rates, is perhaps looser in the U.S. than it is in Europe. 貨幣政策,由實質利率判斷,或是美國還比歐洲更寬鬆。 If you consider this chart, 如果比仔細考慮這張表, real interest rates are calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from nominal interest rates. 實質利率由名目利率減去通貨膨脹率求出。 BNP Paribas here have compared real rates in Europe and the U.S., where inflation has started to pick up, 法國巴黎銀行比較了歐洲和美國的房地產,通膨開始將負利率推向更低, pushing negative rates lower, the negative real rates lower. 實質負利率更低。 The euro, they argue, could strengthen further in the next few months. 歐元,他們如此爭辯,幾個月後會強勢起來。 If it does, cheaper imports would mean even less inflation in Europe, 如果真是如此將更有利於進口,歐洲的通膨率將降低, putting further pressure on the ECB to act, 歐洲中央銀行壓力會更大, but also raising fresh questions about its power if it does. 但也提起了他是否有能力的問題。
B1 中級 中文 FinancialTimes 歐元 強勢 歐洲 銀行 利率 寬鬆政策 強勢歐元 Looser policy but a stronger euro | Short View 799 24 Kristi Yang 發佈於 2016 年 04 月 20 日 更多分享 分享 收藏 回報 影片單字