I'm here with Juergen Mier, the Chief Executive of Siemens in the UK,

跟我一起在這裏的是 Juergen Mier ，英國西子門首席執行長，

and John Mills, chairman and founder of JML and deputy chairman of the Leave Campaign.

還有 John Mills ，JML 的主席兼創辦人，以及 Leave Campaign 的副主席。

Um, well (you) you've both been taking partner session about the implications to the UK of a vote to leave the EU in the referendum in June.

嗯，你們都參加過關於英國是否於六月公投決定退出歐盟的合作或夥伴會議。

Um, can I start with you, John?

我可以先詢問你嗎 John ?

Do you think that voters are getting the information that they need, um, before that referendum?

你覺得選民在投票前能得到他們需要的資訊嗎?

I think they're getting a cloud of assertions, some of which are well-founded, some of which aren't.

我覺得他們會得到主觀的斷言，有些是背後財力龐大的，有些不是。

And I think there is a lot of confusion around.

而且我覺得最近大家都很不知所措。

In the end, I think, most voters are going to vote on how they feel, I think it's almost an emotional decision that they'll take.

最後，我想，選民會按照自己的感覺投票，我覺得他們會依照心情做選擇。

I think it's largely going to be about control and cost, and a lot of these other really big issues that are going be difficult for a lot of people to get their heads around.

我覺得這有很大一部份會是關於權力以及成本，還有諸多其他因素會使很多人無法做出理性判斷。

Juergen, do you think people are getting what they need?

Juergen ，你覺得人民有得到他們想要的嗎?

What seems to be missing from the debate is just more facts, or at least opinions which are underpinned with facts.

這場辯論中缺少的是更多的事實，或至少有些立基於事實的意見。

So, you know, let me give you an example.

所以，你知道的，讓我舉個例子。

You know I hear a lot of the people who are on the Leave Campaign side saying,

你知道我聽到了很多站在 Leave Campaign 這邊的人都說，

"You know, it will be really easy to get a trade agreement if we Brexit."

"你知道嗎，如果我們退出歐盟的話要拿到貿易協定就簡單多了。"

Um, but the facts are, that nobody in the world has managed to do a reasonably-sized trade agreement in anyway near two years,

嗯，但是事實是，要談成一個合理的貿易協定差不多要兩年，在世界各角落都是，

so to me that means there will be a huge amount of uncertainty, which is always bad for business.

所以這個論點對我來說就是未來會有非常多的不確定性，對生意來說絕對是壞事。

I mean, one of the arguments that the Leave Campaign makes is precisely that,

我的意思是， Leave Campaign 有個精確的論點，

that the UK will be in a better position to negotiate its own free trade deals both with Europe and with the rest of the world.

(退出歐盟的話)英國要與歐洲或其他國家商議自由貿易協定都比較有利。

Um, why do you believe that's the case?

嗯，你為甚麼如此肯定呢?

Well I think it cuts both ways. I mean I think the EU does have more clouts than the UK on its own.

嗯，我想這是一體兩面的。我是說歐盟確實比獨立的英國有較多的影響力。

On the other hand, the EU has had a lot of trouble negotiating deals because we're twenty eight different members all want something different,

另一方面來說，歐盟要談成一個協議確實比較麻煩，我們有28個會員國，大家各持己見，

it's been hard to get agreement on exactly what the deal should be.

對於協議內容要達成共識真的很難。

And the EU has not got deals with China, or the United States, or India, or Australia,

而歐盟還沒跟中國，或美國，或印度，或澳洲談過協議，

and that shows that it is very tricky to get these deals together in if you're a very big organization.

由此可見如果你屬於一個龐大組織，要達成協議真的很麻煩。

What, um, I mean Siemens is obviously a very significant investor, particularly in manufacturing in the UK,

嗯，我是說，西子門確實是一個非常重要的投資者，特別是對於英國的製造業。

I mean, what will you do if we vote to leave? What will Siemens do?

我是說，如果公投結果是要退出的話你會怎麼做? 西子門會怎麼做?

Well, I've always said and in the debate today that, you know, to me this is not so much about the factories and the activities we (here) have here today.

嗯，我總是說金汀住種辯論，你知道的，對我來說不是太關於我們現在的這些活動或是工廠。

You know, they will largely continue, we will serve the British market, exporting from those factories will no doubt be a little bit more difficult,

你知道的，他們還時會持續大規模存在，我們還是會供給英國市場，這些工廠要出口無疑會比較困難。

but the real issue here is, what I'd like to do, is to create more future investment, factories of the future, and that means you do R&D here in the UK.

但是真實情況是，我想要做的是創造更多未來投資機會，未來工廠，那表示在這國這裡會進行研發。

And those sorts of things are going to be harder when we are outside of a European Union.

如果我們不屬於歐盟的話，要做這些事就會比較難。

It's more likely that the research activities would be done in collaboration without Great Britain,

這些研究很難在沒有英國的協助下完成。

and if you're not in at the beginning, then the chances of you having a factory of the future are pretty small.

如果你沒有把握住起步的時機，你在未來要有間工廠的機會根本微乎其微。

But the Remain Campaign paints a very doom-laden scenario for a post-Brexit UK.

但是剩下的競選活動又給還沒正式退出歐盟的英國蒙上一層陰影。

I mean, you're not saying that Siemens will leave the UK, are you?

我的意思是，你不要再說西子門會離開英國吧？

No no, that's what I'm saying. You know, we won't leave the UK, but I don't see any up side, you know,

不是，那不是我要表達的意思。你知道，我們不會離開英國，但是你也看不要甚麼好轉的跡象，你知道的，

and I'm not in business to carry on running a status-quo.

而且我不是為了一直維持現狀而來做生意的。

You know, we have been growing our workforce, our activity here in the UK consistently over the last 30 or 40 years.

你知道，我們已經在英國持續擴大營運三、四十年了。

There's a matter-of-fact longer than now.

事實就是那比現在久多了。

We've been employing thousands more people.

我們前前後後雇用了幾千名員工。

We're recruiting a thousand people in Hull here in the United Kingdom right now,

我們此時噁克在英國的Hull 還在持續徵才，

and creating those sorts of investments are much easier as part of the European Union.

而做這些投資，英國在歐盟內會方便很多。

I mean, John, I know that you don't believe in the doomsday scenario if we vote to leave, um, I mean Juergen says he sees no up sides,

我的意思是，John，我知道你不相信如果公投結果是要退出，那就世界末日了。嗯，我是說， Juergen 說它看不要好轉的機會。

what for you, are to say, one or two of the biggest up sides of us voting to leave?

你覺得呢，退出的一兩個最大的好處會是甚麼？

Well, we paid less into the European Union.

嗯，我們可以少付歐盟一點錢。

We're paying about 12 million pounds a year, billion pounds next possibly after taking in all the account, the values that come back in,

我們現在每年支付一千兩百萬英鎊，明年可能要負到幾十億，回來的價值，

so I mean there are gains of that sort.

所以我說那樣的話還是有些獲利。

So I think the really big issue is whether the British economy is going to be more likely to grow, um, than if we're in the EU rather than outside.

所以我覺得最重要的就是，我們屬於歐盟與否，英國的經濟是否成長。

And I would have thought that Siemens investment would depend very much on the assessment of that sort.

而我相信西子門的投資在此評估上佔有極大的份量。

And I think that if there are liberal policies pursued by a post-Brexit government,

而我想如果政府此刻能開放經濟自由化，

that the economy may well grow more rapidly than it would have done if we've stayed in.

那退出歐盟的話經濟成長是會比較大的。

The EU is not doing well economically and (we get) shackling ourselves to the EU, the slow-growth isn't the best solution.

歐盟的經濟並不好，與其為伍使我們被牽制住，緩慢的經濟成長並不是好的解決方針。

Thank you both very much indeed for speaking to the FT today.

常感謝兩位今日於金融時報發言。