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  • Hello, and welcome back to The Note.

    哈囉,歡迎回到 The Note

  • We appear to be having yoyo markets in stock markets around the world at the moment.

    近期全球股市動盪不安

  • And a bad day for the S&P it's now back negative for the year, cancelling out the very strong day it had yesterday.

    S&P 指數好景不常,再度呈現萎靡情勢

  • However, if you take a look more broadly, you can see a couple of themes or trends that are very clearly defined, and unfortunately downwards.

    總體而言,全球股市明顯正在走下坡

  • Let's start by taking a look at bank stocks, and specifically at Deutsche Bank.

    首先來看銀行股市, 我特別選了德意志銀行

  • which I am choosing because it's such an extreme example.

    因為它的情況非常極端。

  • This is Deutsche Bank's share price over the last quarter of the century,

    這張圖表顯示德意志銀行過去25年來的股價走勢

  • denominated in constant euros, obviously it was denominated in Deutschmarks early on in this period.

    單位為歐元,早期則明顯是以德國馬克來計算。

  • And you can see that it's lower than it's ever been over that entire period.

    現在股價已創歷史新低

  • Now, that's really, quite remarkable.

    非常驚人

  • You normally only see a dive like this in periods of extreme financial stress,

    通常只有在極端的財政壓力下股價才會大幅下跌

  • such as long-term capital management crisis in '98,

    例如1998年的長期資本經營不善

  • or the great financial crisis of 2008.

    或2008年的全球金融海嘯

  • Why are we seeing the sell-off in the bank that is far too big to fail - it's the biggest bank in Germany,

    為什麼這家德國最大的銀行

  • it owns the Old Bankers trust franchise here in the States,

    在同時擁有美國華爾街基金公司 Old Bankers 經營權的情況下

  • which is one of the core franchises in Wall Street.

    股票會遭受大量拋售的命運?

  • Well, negative interest rates in Europe.

    罪魁禍首就是歐洲的負利率政策。

  • The promise of low interest rates for a long time to come here in the U.S.

    持續的低利率政策若來到美國

  • are bad for bank's profitability, bad for their bank's business model.

    對銀行利潤和經營模式會造成傷害

  • And that's created great concern around the banking sectors as a whole, not only Deutsche Bank.

    因此,不只德意志銀行,其他的銀行部門也開始關切其影響

  • Now if you want to see a further example of how there are limits to how much low interest rates can be used to bail everyone out

    如果您想瞭解為何低利率會對排除他人產生限制

  • take a look at Japan.

    不妨參照日本的例子

  • This is the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the Chinese renminbi.

    這是日圓對中國人民幣的匯率

  • China is its biggest competitor in export markets,

    中國是日本出口市場的最大競爭者

  • and arguably its biggest customer of the US dollar.

    也是其最大的美元客戶

  • And you can see that in the last few months, Japan's yen has appreciated very greatly.

    過去幾個月來,日圓大幅升值

  • eroding its competitiveness.

    因此降低了自身的競爭力

  • Why?

    為什麼呢?

  • Probably stems primarily back to the decision at the end of January,

    這可能源自該國在一月底實施的政策

  • when the bank of Japan shocked everybody

    日本央行當時宣布負利率政策

  • by announcing it was moving to negative interest rates,

    震撼了全市場

  • that wasn't expected, but the response was widely taken as showing that it couldn't cut rates any further.

    該政策超出預期,大多數人認為日本央行不能持續降低利率

  • It had such a negative effect on markets as a whole, particularly on banks

    該政策對市場,尤其是銀行,產生了極大的負面影響

  • that there is now a bet that there is nothing the bank of Japan can do to fight the markets, to force its currency down.

    有人因此看衰日本央行的市場競爭力和阻擋日圓升值的能力

  • We've heard finance ministers, the officials in Japan saying that trading in the foreign exchange market at present is one-sided,

    日本財政官員表示該國目前貿易呈一面倒的情勢

  • that has been a tell in the past that they're planing an intervention.

    是先前在決定干預政策時就預料到的結果

  • But the market is evidently fighting the BOJ,

    但很明顯地,市場大力反彈日本央行

  • and betting that it won't be able to push down the yen even if it wants to.

    並且認為日本央行根本就無法讓貨幣貶值

  • Now if you want to see what a kind of an effect that it has on the stock market,

    如果你想知道該政策對股市的影響

  • you can see that, if we take a look at this next chart,

    你可以參照下一張圖表

  • that's the yen moves remarkably in line with the Nikkei 225 with Japanese stocks.

    這張圖顯示日圓和日經指數呈現極為相似的變化

  • There are plenty of stocks tradable in Tokyo, which don't rely on exports at all.

    在東京有許多可交易、不必仰賴出口的股票

  • But as far as the investors are concerned, as far as the index is concerned,

    但就投資客和指數而言

  • the Japanese market is treated as though it's one giant exporter,

    日本市場是被視為一個巨大的出口體

  • and moves perfectly, almost perfectly in line with the currency.

    而且幾乎快要與其貨幣走勢並行

  • As a result, Japanese stocks are in a bear market down more than 20% from their peak last year.

    因此,日本股市現在進入熊市,比起去年的高峰期整整下跌了百分之二十。

  • Further pressure on the yen will mean further pressure on Japanese stocks.

    對日圓施加的壓力等同對日本股市的壓力

  • All of this ultimately shows that there are constraints.

    這些情況都顯現了該國的窘境。

  • The ease from the Federal Reserve putting everyone on notice that they're really not going to raise rates as much as people were thinking,

    聯準會並沒有像眾人預期般調高利率,而實施的寬鬆政策

  • has eased a lot of pressure in the world system.

    讓全球市場能喘一口氣

  • It's eased pressure on emerging markets, in particular, it's allowed the oil price to regain. It's helped many stock markets.

    不僅減緩新興市場的壓力,也讓油價得以回升,對許多股市也有助益。

  • But there are constrains on this, and that is shown both by the banking sector and by Japan.

    然而銀行部門與日本還是難逃低利率政策下產生的窘境。

Hello, and welcome back to The Note.

哈囉,歡迎回到 The Note

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廉價貨幣的約束|作者簡介 (The constraints on cheap money | Authers' Note)

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    Vanessa Hsieh 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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