We appear to be having yoyo markets in stock markets around the world at the moment.

近期全球股市動盪不安

And a bad day for the S&P it's now back negative for the year, cancelling out the very strong day it had yesterday.

S&P 指數好景不常，再度呈現萎靡情勢

However, if you take a look more broadly, you can see a couple of themes or trends that are very clearly defined, and unfortunately downwards.

總體而言，全球股市明顯正在走下坡

Let's start by taking a look at bank stocks, and specifically at Deutsche Bank.

首先來看銀行股市， 我特別選了德意志銀行

which I am choosing because it's such an extreme example.

因為它的情況非常極端。

This is Deutsche Bank's share price over the last quarter of the century,

這張圖表顯示德意志銀行過去25年來的股價走勢

denominated in constant euros, obviously it was denominated in Deutschmarks early on in this period.

單位為歐元，早期則明顯是以德國馬克來計算。

And you can see that it's lower than it's ever been over that entire period.

現在股價已創歷史新低

Now, that's really, quite remarkable.

非常驚人

You normally only see a dive like this in periods of extreme financial stress,

通常只有在極端的財政壓力下股價才會大幅下跌

such as long-term capital management crisis in '98,

例如1998年的長期資本經營不善

or the great financial crisis of 2008.

或2008年的全球金融海嘯

Why are we seeing the sell-off in the bank that is far too big to fail - it's the biggest bank in Germany,

為什麼這家德國最大的銀行

it owns the Old Bankers trust franchise here in the States,

在同時擁有美國華爾街基金公司 Old Bankers 經營權的情況下

which is one of the core franchises in Wall Street.

股票會遭受大量拋售的命運？

Well, negative interest rates in Europe.

罪魁禍首就是歐洲的負利率政策。

The promise of low interest rates for a long time to come here in the U.S.

持續的低利率政策若來到美國

are bad for bank's profitability, bad for their bank's business model.

對銀行利潤和經營模式會造成傷害

And that's created great concern around the banking sectors as a whole, not only Deutsche Bank.

因此，不只德意志銀行，其他的銀行部門也開始關切其影響

Now if you want to see a further example of how there are limits to how much low interest rates can be used to bail everyone out

如果您想瞭解為何低利率會對排除他人產生限制

take a look at Japan.

不妨參照日本的例子

This is the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the Chinese renminbi.

這是日圓對中國人民幣的匯率

China is its biggest competitor in export markets,

中國是日本出口市場的最大競爭者

and arguably its biggest customer of the US dollar.

也是其最大的美元客戶

And you can see that in the last few months, Japan's yen has appreciated very greatly.

過去幾個月來，日圓大幅升值

eroding its competitiveness.

因此降低了自身的競爭力

Why?

為什麼呢？

Probably stems primarily back to the decision at the end of January,

這可能源自該國在一月底實施的政策

when the bank of Japan shocked everybody

日本央行當時宣布負利率政策

by announcing it was moving to negative interest rates,

震撼了全市場

that wasn't expected, but the response was widely taken as showing that it couldn't cut rates any further.

該政策超出預期，大多數人認為日本央行不能持續降低利率

It had such a negative effect on markets as a whole, particularly on banks

該政策對市場，尤其是銀行，產生了極大的負面影響

that there is now a bet that there is nothing the bank of Japan can do to fight the markets, to force its currency down.

有人因此看衰日本央行的市場競爭力和阻擋日圓升值的能力

We've heard finance ministers, the officials in Japan saying that trading in the foreign exchange market at present is one-sided,

日本財政官員表示該國目前貿易呈一面倒的情勢

that has been a tell in the past that they're planing an intervention.

是先前在決定干預政策時就預料到的結果

But the market is evidently fighting the BOJ,

但很明顯地，市場大力反彈日本央行

and betting that it won't be able to push down the yen even if it wants to.

並且認為日本央行根本就無法讓貨幣貶值

Now if you want to see what a kind of an effect that it has on the stock market,

如果你想知道該政策對股市的影響

you can see that, if we take a look at this next chart,

你可以參照下一張圖表

that's the yen moves remarkably in line with the Nikkei 225 with Japanese stocks.

這張圖顯示日圓和日經指數呈現極為相似的變化

There are plenty of stocks tradable in Tokyo, which don't rely on exports at all.

在東京有許多可交易、不必仰賴出口的股票

But as far as the investors are concerned, as far as the index is concerned,

但就投資客和指數而言

the Japanese market is treated as though it's one giant exporter,

日本市場是被視為一個巨大的出口體

and moves perfectly, almost perfectly in line with the currency.

而且幾乎快要與其貨幣走勢並行

As a result, Japanese stocks are in a bear market down more than 20% from their peak last year.

因此，日本股市現在進入熊市，比起去年的高峰期整整下跌了百分之二十。

Further pressure on the yen will mean further pressure on Japanese stocks.

對日圓施加的壓力等同對日本股市的壓力

All of this ultimately shows that there are constraints.

這些情況都顯現了該國的窘境。

The ease from the Federal Reserve putting everyone on notice that they're really not going to raise rates as much as people were thinking,

聯準會並沒有像眾人預期般調高利率，而實施的寬鬆政策

has eased a lot of pressure in the world system.

讓全球市場能喘一口氣

It's eased pressure on emerging markets, in particular, it's allowed the oil price to regain. It's helped many stock markets.

不僅減緩新興市場的壓力，也讓油價得以回升，對許多股市也有助益。

But there are constrains on this, and that is shown both by the banking sector and by Japan.

然而銀行部門與日本還是難逃低利率政策下產生的窘境。