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  • We've lived through low interest rates and zero interest rates.

    我們已經歷過低利率和零利率的大風大浪

  • But investors are not sure how comfortable they feel about negative interest rates,

    但投資客對於負利率政策仍持觀望態度

  • since the talk is of banks charging people to look after their money.

    因為現在你去銀行存款,還得付他們錢

  • So are negative interest rates going to fade and die, or get deeper and wider?

    所以,負利率是走是留?

  • With me to discuss this is Peter Westway, head of investment strategy at the Asset Manager Vanguard.

    來自 Asset Manager Vanguard 的投資策略主管 Peter Westway 將與我一同探討此議題

  • Peter, remind us why do we have negative interest rates at all.

    Peter,可否請您解釋負利率為何會出現?

  • Well, the reason we have negative interest rates is that central banks in some countries find it necessary to provide additional policy stimulus.

    我認為負利率的出現,與某些國家央行的刺激消費政策息息相關。

  • They start by cutting rates lower and lower. Then they hit zero.

    他們先是逐漸降低利率,直到利率降為零。

  • At that point, they can either start printing money by doing quantitative easing.

    到了這關頭,央行可以實行量化寬鬆政策來印鈔

  • Or now, they're starting to move rates into negative territories as well.

    或者像現在,祭出負利率政策

  • What do central banks want us to do?

    央行究竟要拿我們如何?

  • Central banks affectively are trying to get us to spend more money because by doing that,

    央行希望我們會因為負利率而提高消費

  • we increase economic activity in the economy in that pushes up inflation, which is what they want.

    藉此促進經濟活動,提高通膨率

  • But is it really the case that people are going to be charged for,

    但重點在於銀行要向人民收錢這件事

  • these people to hold their money in their banks and investors are going to be charged for the privilege of lending to governments?

    人民要付錢給銀行,而投資客借錢給政府,還要再貼錢

  • It's not quite the case. Not many banks are yet charging negative deposit rates.

    現在還沒走到那地步,許多銀行還沒有宣佈實行存款負利率

  • And interestingly, as a result of that, that means that probably the pass through from these interest rates isn't getting through to the borrowing rates.

    有趣的是,正因如此,存入的利率無法直接轉手給借出的利率

  • So, the effectiveness of these negative rates in encouraging people to spend more is probably a little bit diluted.

    所以,負利率能夠提高民眾消費率的假設,其實有待商榷。

  • Ok, so let's look our first chart which tells us how prevalent negative interest rates are at the moment.

    這張圖表顯示負利率的普及程度

  • This shows that around 30% of the current issues out there for sovereign developed market bonds are in negative territory.

    圖表顯示已發展國家已發行的主權債券有30%為負利率的狀態

  • Now, that's a slight overestimate of how much governments are actually getting a good deal,

    但這數字有點高估政府獲利的實際情況

  • because of course some of those bonds were issued while rates were still positive.

    因為有些債券在負利率之前就已發行

  • And they've since moved into negative territory in the secondary market.

    在那之後,那些債券就流入了實行負利率的二級市場

  • But even so, any government like Germany's, like Switzerland's going to the market now to raise money,

    即便如此,像德國、瑞士這樣的政府仍然繼續在市場上集資

  • is getting a negative yield, which means in effect , we're paying them for the privilege of us giving the money.

    而利潤為負,也就是說,我們借錢給政府,還要因此再付他們額外的錢

  • Peter, why would investors want to invest in a negative yield?

    Peter,為什麼投資客會想做賠本生意?

  • Let's have a look at your second chart here.

    我們來看這裡的第二張圖表

  • Yeah, I mean, I think the really important point to remember here is why do you hold bonds in your portfolio in the first place?

    我認為重點是為什麼我們還是繼續花錢買債券?

  • And you're not holding bonds because they give you fantastic returns.

    就算你持有債券,並不保證你能大賺一筆。

  • Equities are in your portfolio for that.

    基金才能達到那種目的。

  • There's only two reasons. One, they provide you a bit of a dampness stability.

    兩個理由。第一,債券相對比較有保障。

  • But second and most important, they provide diversification relative to equities.

    第二點,也是非常重要的一點,債券可以讓你分散風險。

  • So what this chart shows you is that if you take the worst quartile of stock market performance over the last 14 years, from 2001 to 2014.

    從這張圖你可以看到,如果你從2001到2014,這過去14年來,看股市最糟的四分位值,

  • So when equities fell 6%, this tells you how different duration bonds apply during those same periods.

    基金股掉了6%,而同一時間,債券維持著相反的走勢

  • And what you see is that typically, bonds would go up to counteract it.

    通常這個時候債券就會出來與之相抗衡。

  • So that diversification would still happen in negative interest rate world?

    所以即使債券採用了負利率,仍能分散風險嗎?

  • Yeah, I don't think, I mean I think a couple of years ago, we were beginning to think that this diversification had run out of road.

    幾年前,我們就開始認為債券不能持續分散風險

  • But what's still happening is that as interest rates are falling and falling, where we're seeing that there's almost no limit to it.

    但現在的情況是,利率毫無止盡的往下降

  • But the criticism of negative interest rates is being stepped up.

    但有人開始出來抨擊反負利率的言論

  • We've had Lowry Fynn of Blackrock saying people are going to have to save for longer. Is that correct?

    貝萊德的 Lowry Fynn 表示民眾還得再囤積鈔票一陣子。是這樣嗎?

  • Yeah, I think that basic point is correct. But I think it's mixing up too slightly different issues.

    基本上是對的,但我覺得他有點把不同的事情混為一談。

  • I think it's definitely the case that because we're moving into a low interest rate world,

    有鑒於利率不斷降低的情勢,我們是必須囤積鈔票

  • investors are going to have to save more to earn the same income in their retirement as they would've done a few years ago.

    投資客比起以往,必須存更多的錢才能在退休後過好日子

  • Now that's partly being affected by the low interest rates and the negative interest rates that central banks are implementing at the moment.

    一部分是受到目前銀行實行低利率和負利率的影響

  • But let's remember why central banks are doing that.

    但我們可別忘了央行這樣做的理由

  • They're doing that in order to try and persuade people to bring consumption forward from the future to the present.

    他們這樣做是為了說服民眾現在就把未來的錢花掉

  • That's just a standard thing that policy makers do during a period when the economy is in a big downturn.

    這是決策者在經濟蕭條時期常做的手段

  • But even when this downturn is behind us, it's still gonna be the case that returns are going to be lower going forward

    但即便已經過了蕭條時期,我們能夠從銀行取回的錢仍會不斷減少

  • and people are going to have to save more.

    而民眾會因此囤積更多錢

  • So, poor old investors are really the people that are caught in the middle here between a bad long-run outcome and policy maker actions.

    到頭來,倒楣的還是投資客,因為他們陷在惡性的長期發展和決策中動彈不得

  • Just very quickly Peter, finally how long we're gonna have negative interest rates?

    Peter,最後一個小問題,您認為負利率還會維持多久?

  • I think we're gonna probably have them for the next year or two.

    我想這個狀況還會繼續維持個一兩年

  • Peter Westway, thank you very much indeed.

    感謝您的到來

  • Thank you.

    謝謝

We've lived through low interest rates and zero interest rates.

我們已經歷過低利率和零利率的大風大浪

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【金融時報】秒懂負利率 How negative rates work | FT Markets

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